Governance and Public Administration challenges...
Transcript of Governance and Public Administration challenges...
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Governance and Public Administration challenges and perspectives for peace in DRC
and the Great Lakes Region.
Do the 2006 presidential and parliamentary elections hold the answers?
Joseph Clifford BirungiUN/DESA, September 2006
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Overview
• Country features• Poor governance (and poverty) in the
country (Pre)-Colonial CongoJoseph Desiré Mobutu era
• Laurent Desiré Kabila regime and the armed conflict (1996 – 2002)
• Intermediary responsesJoseph Kabila and the transitional government
(2001 up to the present)
• The July 30th 2006 elections and beyond
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Interdependence and interrelatedness;
•Politics,
•Democracy,
•Management Administration,
•Conflict
Core themes
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Location of the DRC
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Democratic Republic of Congo
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Features
• >2.3m sq/km , 2nd biggest in Africa• >60 million people, hundreds of ethnic groups
and diversity of languages• Good climate and soils• 12 provinces, increased to 26• 09 neighbors• Natural resources (<1.1m sq/km of equatorial
forests, flora and fauna)
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DRC - Natural Resources
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Features cont’dHowever, amid this wealth, • High poverty levels (167th of the 177 world’s poor –
UNDP ’05)• Poor infrastructure (roads <5% of 145,000kms tarmac),
comm., water navigation network poor, poor flight safety standards
• Resources have been used to fuel conflict, not get people out of poverty.
• Natural resources play a role in explaining the character of the colonial rule, but post colonial leaders never sought to break the cycle.
• The Congo war 1996-2002 (or regional war?)
Link between poverty and conflict!
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Key governance challenges
Inadequacies of governing capacity & crisis of legitimacy of the country
Crisis of insurgency in Eastern provinces & in Katanga
Wider conflagration of conflict involving neighbors
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Legitimacy and governing capacity• Government:
Legislature - Mobutu’s MPR, - pluralism of 1990’s? set up to divide and/or co-opt opposition- Kabila I = ban on parties
Executive- One party = MPR = Nation = Mobutu (père de la nation): loose power
strings kept together by Mobutu- Kabila I : Institutional failures pegged to ‘invasion by neighboring countries’Judiciary- Absence of effective policing and judicial structures- Disconnected from centre,: either ceased to exist or act contrary to
mandate
Any separation of ‘powers’?
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Legitimacy and governing capacity (cont’d)
Status of the current political-economic terrain• 300 member Transitional assembly, Transitional Gvt and
Courts
• Political parties and civil society
- over 160 political parties, 500 seat national assembly- polarized, politics for economic survival: make ends meet as
much as one can!- Privatization of service delivery: 1300 NGOS (substitute for
state) GONGOs & Briefcase NGOs in predatory relationship
• Economy : electrification, transport, minerals, timber, agriculture
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Legitimacy and governing capacity (cont’d)
• Security:
- Colonial ‘forces publiques’of the colonial times: to suppress natives
- Mobutu’s patronized army, poorly trained,predatory relationship with government
- FARDC characterized by pre-2003 command structures. Expectations?
- Local militia (self-help/group solidarity), ex-FAZ, PMCs
- Foreign armed groups (carry out cultivation, trade, mining and provide protection of locals!
- About 20,000 strong poorly equipped, trained and remunerated police force
Security or insecurity?
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Implications: Conflict!• Playing the ethnic card, language and regional divide and rule.
• Disenfranchised population, illiteracy, unemployment, self- help! war?
• Socialized and institutionalized “corruption”
• Implications on national security- command, ‘brassage’, numbers & DDR, child soldiers, SALW, Mai-Mai
• Foreign/dissident armed groups.
- Recruitment of Congolese into foreign armies, eg into ADF, .• Self financing rebellions, terror to the innocent civilians
- Death toll >4million (direct deaths and ‘collateral’ and indirect deaths)• Disease: HIV/AIDS, Malaria, malnutrition (indirect deaths)
The poverty – conflict trap?
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Intermediary responses• 1999 Lusaka Peace Agreement (LPA)
Accord among belligerents to address dissidents: to what extent was it addressing internal contradictions
• 2002 Inter-Congolese Dialogue (ICD)Dialogue amongst internal groups fighting government: how inclusive was it?
The Transitional government = 1 + 4 challenges of representation and of building of harmonious relationships
Do these address the underlying contradictions?
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Intermediary responses (cont’d)• 2003 Transitional Gvt
The legitimacy of the compromise transitional assembly = LPA and the ICD
Multiple power centers, Tshisekedi - UDPS, Mobutuists, Lumumbists
• Mission of the TGNU-Reunification, pacification-National Reconciliation-National Army-Elections @ all levels-New political dispensation
Evaluation of the success indicators as to the above mission?
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Intermediary responses (cont’d)
• International community- MONUC operations: UN’s largest 17,000!- CIAT, EUSEC, EUPOL
• 2006 elections : Opportunity missed? – Transition should have been extended and elections started with local levels to allow emergence of a new leadership from below!
The timing of the high level elections?
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DRC elections 30/07/2006Presidential elections
• Joseph Kabila: 45% • Jean-Pierre Bemba: 20%• Antoine Gizenga: 13%• Nzanga Mobutu: 5%• Oscar Kashala: 4%• Turnout: 70%
PARLIAMENT:
• Alliance for the Presidential Majority - APM (Kabila): 169
• Rally of Congolese Nationalists - Renaco (Bemba): 47
• Seats declared 341/500
CEI : http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/5315448.stm (05/sept/06
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Reflections on elections!• What does the voting pattern say on:
– Kabila’s win in the east vs. claims that Ug & Rw control the east?
– Why Kabila lost capital Kinshasa to Bemba and implications?
– What about the vote by Mobutuists?
– Vote by Lumumbists?
– And the 70% voter turn-out in spite of the long distances to the polling centres and the insecurity?
– The possibility of alliances during the 2nd round: Kabila, Lumumbists, Mobutuists against perceived foreign supported leaders – Bemba (and Ruberwa)?
Congolese are tired of war and want to be well governed, want peace!
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Kabila’s elections campaign program (2006 +)
• Peace, democracy and SD in harmony with neighboring countries and Int’l cmnty.
• Economic liberalization
• Human Rights
• A country safer from Regional terrorism
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The Long road ahead
• Was conflict caused by not holding elections and are the elections the answer?
• What is the Unity and Reconciliation strategy ?
Is winning the ballot (vote) = winning support?
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The Long road ahead (cont’d)• Participative politics (citizen
participation)- Is there a centre from which to devolve the power?- Government capacity to absorb democratic change?- Capacity of locals to man new structures?- Oversight functions? Marginalized minorities and
other social groups?- Political opposition? Etienne Tshisekedi? Election
losers? Civil unrest? Nature of govt response?- Meaning of loss of political power thru elections to the
military factions in the TGNU?
Politics of accommodation or of participation?
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The Long road ahead (cont’d)The tribal chiefs
and Mai-Mai militia?
Former
Gen. PadiriMai-Mai’s
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Long road ahead (cont’d)• What are the economic dimensions of local conflicts?
• Refugees? IDPs?
• Foreign/Dissident groups – genocidaires and FDLR (Rwanda), LRA, ADF (Uganda) FNL of Burundi? Others to emerge?
• Ex-FAZ, MaiMai militia grps esp in Ituri and Katanga?
• Expiry of MONUC/CIAT mandate vs eventual administrative and security vacuum?
A frozen conflict about to thaw or a peace-building trend?
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Way forward
Priority : avoid renewed violence
Focus on:- Constitutional governance- Economic stabilization- Justice and Reconciliation strategy- Security and Judicial reforms- Post conflict recovery and reconstruction
programs
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Way forward (cont’d)• DRC: - Link btwn Poverty and Conflict Poverty Reduction Strategy Program Define the parameters of
participative governance, provincial assemblies and below.- Special needs of women, children, vulnerable?- National Reconciliation strategy (ADR, Track II, Traditional
mechanisms?)- Civil Society and Private sector: stakeholder meetings. (The Govt-
CSO and Private sector pyramid. Identify challenges, sort comparative advntgs, mutual responsibilities, early warning, incentives)
- DDRR process vs. DRR (mobilize behavioral change too!)- Pubic Affairs and Central Fiscal Authority? (Unmask self interest,
international networks in resource exploitation, exploit resource wealth for development, not war!)
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Way forward (cont’d)Country and region do not lack mechanisms, rather their operationalisation, to address concerns of neighbours
A Regional and Integrated approach- JMC and JPC- IC/GLR- EAC, SADC, COMESA- NEPAD and AU
How do we operationalize the institutional mechanisms?
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Way forward (cont’d)• International Support- Support & strengthen sustainable internal capacity building (MONUC, CIAT?)
- Support ADR mechanisms. Track II-Diplomacy- Congo’s stance towards neighbors’ concerns - The issue of dissident forces- Support of push/pull factors in neighboring countries to improve on their governance
- Harmonize World Bank & IDA’s MDRP policy on DDR vs DRC’s CONADER
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CONCLUSIONHOW?
Proceed from approximativeand palliative measures that focus on resource exploitation
Tangible, sustainable, verifiable goodgovernance?
Looking for underlying causes !!!
Political will
Systems
Tools