GOTV UNIVERSES
description
Transcript of GOTV UNIVERSES
&#noiOnDemand
GOTV UNIVERSES
Mo MaraqaNew Organizing Institute
&#noiOnDemand
OBJECTIVEToday’s presentation will cover building Get Out the Vote (GOTV) universes, building capacity and
&#noiOnDemand
AGENDAIntroductionBasic TermsBuilding UniversesCapacity, Capacity, Capacity…Instituting a TimelineMaking AdjustmentsQ&A
&#noiOnDemand
Pilar Weiss
TODAY’S PRESENTER
Civic Engagement DirectorNew Organizing Institute
&#noiOnDemand
• GOTV - Get Out The Vote refers to activities organizations and campaigns take in the run up to an election to maximize the number supporters that turn out to vote.
• Universe - The set of voters you will attempt to turn out to vote on election day
• Modeling Scores -
SOME BASIC TERMS
&#noiOnDemand
TARGETING MATRIXSupporters Persuadable Opposition
Always
Vote
Supporters that
Always Vote
Persuadablethat
Always Vote
Opposition that
Always VotesSometim
es Vote
Supporters that
Sometimes Vote
Opposition that
Sometimes Votes
Never
Vote
Supporters that
Never Vote
Persuadable that
Never Vote
Opposition that
Never Votes
Persuadable that
Sometimes Vote
&#noiOnDemand
BUILDING SUPPORT
MODELING
PARTISANSHIP
DEMOGRAPHICS
SUPPORT SCORE
VOTE HISTORY
&#noiOnDemand
THE VOTE DEFICIT
Base VotersVoters that probably vote for you no matter what
Vote DeficitOH NO! Turnout minus base voters = defeat.
PersuadablesVoters that do not fall into the “Base” or
“Opponent” camps
&#noiOnDemand
THE CALCULUS• Traditional Method of Estimating
Turnout
• Apply turnout to current registration
• Increase Expected Vote Rate
Turnout + Turnout + TurnoutRegistration + Registration + Registration
= Turnout Rate
Turnout Rate x Current VAP = Expected Vote
Expected Vote x (increase) = Turnout for this Cycle
&#noiOnDemand
• Organizational Capacity– Staffers– Volunteers– Growth Potential
• Contact Method– Phonebank or Canvassing– Contact Rate Assumptions– Shift Length
BUILDING CAPACITY
&#noiOnDemand
9,000 15% 50,000
CONTACT CALCULUS
Contact Goal
Contact Rate
Attempts Goal
&#noiOnDemand
TIMELINE
Initial GOTV Passes
Initial GOTV Passes
Additional GOTV Passes
Early Vote/ VBM
Election Day
&#noiOnDemand
50,000 80 625
VOLUNTEER CALCULUS
Calling Goal Calls per Shift Shifts Goal
&#noiOnDemand
MAKING ADJUSTMENTS
&#noiOnDemand &#noiOnDemand