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Transcript of Gordon E. Grant USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station M. Safeeq & S.Lewis Oregon State University...
Gordon E. GrantUSDA Forest Service PNW Research Station
M. Safeeq & S.Lewis Oregon State UniversityC.Tague, University of California Santa Barbara
Where’s Water? Forecasting future
streamflow regimes in the Pacific Northwest
J F M A M J J A S O N Dp
reci
pit
atio
n water u
se
The paradox of water in the
West…
• Develop a theoretical model of streamflow sensitivity to warming
• Apply this model to long-term data from basins across western US; examine empirical trends in streamflow
• Explore sensitivity to warming across basins across Oregon
• Compare with downscaled models
Today’s menu
A quick primer on climate change in the Pacific Northwest
– Warmer historic temperatures– Changes in precipitation likely
but uncertain (storminess?)– Snowpack is smaller and melting
earlier– Glaciers are retreating
(Nolin and Daly, 2006)
Snow at risk in a warming climate
22% Oregon Cascades12% Washington Cascades61% Olympic Range<3% Pacific Northwest study area
Red = rain instead of snow in the winter
But….
• It’s not just about snow….• Location (geology) matters too…• So…where, when, and how much
water will be available in the future – and what will its quality be?– Start with summer streamflow
• Filter 1:Timing and Magnitude of Recharge
• Filter 2: Drainage Efficiency
Tague & Grant, 2009
Simple model (from Tague and Grant, 2009)
Qt – streamflow at time t (in days)
Qo – streamflow at beginning of recession
k – recession constant
ktoeQtQ
Treating recharge as a single event, we develop a model for summer baseflow:
Qr – summer streamflow
k - drainage efficiency
tr - days between snowmelt (tpk) and time of interest (tsummer)
pk15-day- snowmelt input (peak reduction in a watershed areal mean of a 15 day running average
Qr pkl 5 daye k tr
pk15-day
tr
k
(Tague & Grant, 2009)
Summer flow sensitivity to changes in snowmelt dynamics (first
derivatives)
Qr pk15day
e k tr
Qr tr
pk15day ke k tr
Magnitude
(pk15-day) Timing
(tr)
Both contain k, drainage efficiency
(Tague & Grant, 2009)
(Tague & Grant, 2009)
unit change in daily streamflow
(mm
/day)
sensitive
Not sensitive
deep/slow shallow/fast
short
long
0
2
4
6
8
10M
ean
uni
t di
scha
rge
(mm
/day
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
current climate
1.5C warming
current climate
1.5C warmingClear Lake (MC)
Lookout Creek (LOC)
0
2
4
6
8
10M
ean
unit
disc
harg
e (m
m/d
ay)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
current climate
1.5C warming
current climate
1.5C warmingClear Lake (MC)
Lookout Creek (LOC)
less sensitive
more sensitive
Now, how do we go about:
forecasting the sensitivity of watersheds
across the region
0
2
4
6
8
10
Mea
n un
it di
scha
rge
(mm
/day
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
current climate
1.5C warming
current climate
1.5C warmingClear Lake (MC)
Lookout Creek (LOC)
without modeling everything in sight?
…can we?
It would be nice if we could break the world into four distinct classes:
Rain Slow
SnowSlow
RainFast
SnowFast
Snowmelt dominated
Filter 1: Climate / Precipitation
Filter 2: Drainage Efficienc
y
Rain dominated
Fast draining
Slow draining
Interpreting streamflow trends across western US
81 unregulated basins
Drainage area: 20 to 36,000 km2 (median 550 km2)
Gage elevation:6.5 to 2,245 m(median 431 m)
Time period for analysis: 1950-2010
Extracting metrics from hydrologic records
1. Centroid Timing (CT)
2a. Recession (k)
2b. Base Flow Index (BFI)
Recession Constant (k)Bas
e F
low
Ind
ex (
BF
I)
annual value; mean for period
of record
daily value; mean for period
of record
event value; median for period of record
Interpreting streamflow trends across western US
Early CT = rain-dominated
Intermediate CT = Rain-on-snow / mixed
Late CT = snowmelt-dominated
1. Timing
Interpreting streamflow trends across western US
Low BFI = fast draining
Medium BFI = somewhere in between
High BFI = slow draining
2. Efficiency
Late CT
Snowmelt dominated
Filter 1: Climate / PrecipitationEarly CT
Rain dominated
Filter 2: Drainage Efficiency
Low BFI
Fast draining
High BFI
Slow draining
Late CT
Snowmelt dominated
Filter 1: Climate / PrecipitationEarly CT
Rain dominated
Filter 2: Drainage Efficiency
Low BFI
Fast draining
High BFI
Slow draining
•All trends are negative
Late CT
Snowmelt dominated
Filter 1: Climate / PrecipitationEarly CT
Rain dominated
Filter 2: Drainage Efficiency
Low BFI
Fast draining
High BFI
Slow draining
• Slopes steepen with increasing BFI
Late CT
Snowmelt dominated
Filter 1: Climate / PrecipitationEarly CT
Rain dominated
Filter 2: Drainage Efficiency
Low BFI
Fast draining
High BFI
Slow draining
• Precipitation trends can trump geology
Key initial findings:• Snowpack dynamics and drainage efficiency
(mediated through hydrogeology) are both first-order controls on streamflow response to climate warming
• Simple theory predicts greatest low flow sensitivity to changes in timing of snowmelt are in basins with intermediate snowmelt timing and low drainage efficiencies
• Basins can be categorized in terms of their snowpack dynamics and drainage efficiencies using simple metrics
• Historical trends in streamflow are consistent with model predictions
• Changes in precipitation can trump changes due to warming alone
Extra Slides
www.fsl.orst.edu/wpg