Google UK: Travel Report "A Paper of 2 Halves"

8/9/2019 Google UK: Travel Report "A Paper of 2 Halves"

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A paper of two halvesSummer insights 2010 - Taking advantage of seasonal opportunities

Jonathan Cranmer, Industry Analyst, [email protected]

Insight Facts Opportunities/Actions/Conclusions

Query and click growth acceleratesin 2010

Travel queries have grown 20% YoYin 2010 (YTD).

Air related queries: +24% YoY.

Clicks on Travel ads +13% YoY in2010 (YTD).

Micromanagement of campaign budgets toexploit the continued uplifts in query volumes

Understand the dynamics and changing volumesof keywords and product demand.

Attribute value to generative keywordsthroughout the purchase funnel.

CPCs have fallen CPCs on travel ads have fallen by anaverage of 4% YoY (YTD).

Hotel and car related CPCs havefallen by an average of 7% YoY(YTD).

Use the cheaper CPCs to your advantage. It ismore affordable to increase bids to drive greatervolume to your site than i t was last year.

Adopt an always on policy to capture this costeffective traffic

Keep an eye on the world cup Historical data shows that the worldcup has a direct impact on travelquery volumes.

In 2006 queries dropped by 6%during the world cup, before growingstrongly the following month tocompensate.

Prepare for negative growth whilst Englandcompete in the world cup.

An opportunity exists to capture traffic whenEngland exit the tournament. In 2006 travelqueries increased by 11% after England wereknocked out in the quarter finals stages.

Prepare accounts in anticipation of large queryvolumes during the end of June & start of July

Changes in 2010 searchseasonality

So far in 2010 travel queries havepeaked earlier before public holidays,than observed in 2009.

In 2010 travel queries peaked 11days before the May bank holiday, in2009 they were at their highest 4days before.

Query peaks observed in 2010 are similar to2007 & 2008 patterns, rather than 2009.

Queries were kept artificially high after EasterMonday due to the effect of the ash cloud.

Structure campaigns to capture early traffic, withan emphasis on covering generative researchtype keywords.

Capitalize on seasonal holidays There was no spiked query risebefore the August bank holiday in2009.

We believe this was due to the 2009lates market, which altered traditionaluser search habits.

Expect query volumes before theAugust bank holiday to behave morelike those observed in 2007 & 2008.

Prepare seasonal campaigns to capture genericbank holiday related queries. Keyword examplescould include: Short break, weekend mini-breaks, bank holiday deals.

Remember that demand for short breaks/longweekends is still strong for one-off seasonalholidays; highlighted by strong year-to-datequery growth for European city breakdestinations.

Allocate budgets accordingly for these periods.

Top Summer destinations Of the holiday types, most populardestinations for Summer are:

City Breaks: Paris.

Short Haul Sun: Turkey &Spain. Long Haul: New York,

Australia, Las Vegas.

Continued strong growth of US destinations.

Eurozone destinations have seen continuedYoY query growth.

A return in growth for European city breakdestinations indicates an increase in the volumeof short breaks YoY.


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Summer 2010

This paper focuses on the opportunities presented to travel advertisers in the run up to Summer.

A continued increase in queries during the first five months of the year points toward increased demand

for travel products. With this in mind, we anticipate some shifts in query traffic leading into the summer

months of 2010. The ash cloud has already had an effect on queries & anecdotal evidence suggests theworld cup may have too. Thanks to recent data, we have also observed a reversal of the late booking

patterns observed throughout 2009, & a return to the search seasonalitys of 2007 & 2008.

General market dynamics

2010: Travel query growth in 2010 remains strong, YoY queries are up 20% year-to-date in 2010. Click

volumes also continued to grow, 13% year-to-date (YoY). Positive 2010 market dynamics have largely

been driven by renewed consumer confidence a year on from the start of the recession. The return of

confidence in 2010 is further highlighted by travel queries peaking earlier before public holidays than

observed in 2009, marking the departure of reliance on the lates market.

2010

1. Demand continues to rise: Changes in seasonality due to the ash cloud & world cup

Total travel queries have increased by an average of 20% year-to-date in 2010. Of the individual

product categories, air queries have seen 24% YoY year to date growth. Some of this growth

should be attributed to ash cloud related searches. WoW data shows that travel query volumes

declined 6% at the end of May (purple circle, Fig.1). We believe this could be due to the world

cup. For the same time period during the tournament (Germany 2006) queries declined by 5%.

We will talk about the relationship between travel queries & the world cup later in the paper.

YoY average click volumes for 2010 have increased by 12%. Note that this click growth is 1

percentage point lower than stated in the previous whitepaper. This is because of the unexpectedsurge of ash-cloud related queries in April 2010, which were not appealing to travel product

advertisers. Of the individual products categories, air has grown 9% YoY, hotels 5% & car 11%.

Figure 1: Total travel queries Jan 2007 to date

Easter

Monday

1st

May bank

holiday

Weeklytravelqueryvolumes

2nd May bank

holiday


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2. 2010: Less of a lates market & CPCs are still low

Figure 1 shows the weekly seasonality of travel queries 2007-2010 to date. In 2010 travel queries

peaked 20 days before the Easter bank holiday. In 2009 they peaked exactly two weeks before

Good Friday. Before the 1st

May bank holiday travel queries peaked 11 days before in 2010, &

only 4 days before in 2009; and before the 2nd

May bank holiday 2010 queries peaked 12 days

before vs. 4 days in 2009.

Travel queries therefore have peaked earlier in 2010, which is more in line with search observed

in 2007 & 2008. (As an average of 2007 & 2008, travel queries peaked 12 days before the 1st

May bank holiday & 11 days before the 2nd

long weekend).

Figure 1 also highlights British Q2 public holidays. Queries after Easter Monday in 2010 grew for

two consecutive weeks. WoW growth for the first week was 14% & for the second it was 3%. This

was very strong when compared to the same time period in 2009, where queries grew by only 1%

week one & then declined 3% week two.

This strong query growth observed can be attributed to the effect of the ash cloud, which closed

UK air space from 15th

-22nd

April. Much of the search volume here was driven by air querieswhich grew by a staggering 47% WoW after Easter Monday.

After the first May bank holiday in 2010 travel queries increased by 9% WoW, which was less

than 2009 where they increased 11%. The lower WoW growth in 2010 was caused by the return

of the ash cloud (May 3rd

May 6th) & the great weather enjoyed over that bank holiday weekend.

CPCs for travel ads have fallen by an average of 4% YoY for the first five months of this year. Car

and hotel CPCs have fallen by the greatest amount an average of 7% YoY.

It is likely that CPCs have continued to fall as fares and rates are slower to recover than capacity.

The drop in CPCs reflects the fact that the auctions are less competitive as advertiser depth* has

declined by an average of 2% YoY for travel.

Recommendations

Micromanagement of campaign budgets to exploit the continued uplifts in query volumes.

When allocating budgets, consider that demand for certain travel products are affected byweather patterns more than others.

Assess you campaign broad match strategy, keyword coverage and max CPCs during this period

to drive incremental traffic from world cup traffic which might not otherwise have your ad served

against it.

*Definition advertiser depth: The number of impressions per matched query. It is a measure of how well queries

are covered by sponsored links and gives an indication as to how competitive the auction was at that moment in time.


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World cup fever

As we know the football world cup takes place in South Africa this summer. As mentioned previously, we

believe this event has already had an effect on travel queries. The duration & scale of this effect will

depend heavily on Englands performance during the tournament. Chart 2 below shows month-on-month

query growth leading up to the world-cup for the last 6 years.

Figure 2: Month-on-month travel query growth for world cup months over the last 6 years

Observations

From May to June average month-on-month query growth rates have been between 2 and 5%.

We saw an exception in the previous world cup year (2006), where queries declined by 6%.

In 2010 we have seen May travel queries drop 3% month-on-month. As mentioned earlier in the

paper we know the bulk of this drop can be attributed to end of the month, where travel queries

declined by 6% in the last week (WoW). This years March to April data is affected by the spike in

ash cloud related queries. If we normalize this data, we are seeing similar patterns to previous

years.

This does not follow the same seasonality as the last world cup year (2006), where queries

increased by 15% in May.

Recommendations

Prepare for query volume drops whilst England compete in the world cup.

Allocate budgets for query spikes when group stages end and knock out-games begin

Start of football

world cup

Greater MoM increase to

compensate for drop in

queries during June

Month-on-monthquerygrowth


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Changes in search seasonality

Pre-school holidays

Figure 3 shows daily travel query volumes in the run up to the school summer holidays for the past three

years. The absolute peaks in travel queries are represented on the graph by the coloured circles for each

respective year.

Figure 3: Daily travel query volumes through July & August 2007 2009

Observations

The peak in travel queries before schools break for their summer holidays has happened later each year.In 2007 queries peaked on July 2nd & in 2008, on July 7th (blue and red circles, Fig. 2). However in 2009

travel queries peaked 2 days after the schools broke up, 27th

July. (green circle Fig. 2).

In three years of data, 2009 marks the first time that travel queries have peaked after the start of the

school summer holidays. A closer look at these queries reveals that on average UK domestic travel

searches were up 13% YoY (June & July 2009). For the same time period in 2008 this growth was only

3%. The table below shows a selection of top searched for holiday destinations (2008, 2009, 2010).

During 2009 extremely strong growth was observed for domestic destinations, this growth has been

maintained in 2010 & continues from a strong base (highlighted in red below).

Start of school summer

holidays

2nd

July

7th

July

27th

July

Rolling7dayaveragequeryvolumes


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Individual travel product type trends

Figure 4 takes a more granular look at how travel queries behaved before the school summer holidays.

Here we have charted the indexed growth of individual travel products.

Figure 4: Indexed travel product growth through June & July 2009

Observations

During this time period car queries peaked the earliest, on June 23rd

. WoW this represented a 9%

increase in query volumes and 4% in click volumes. As it can seen, individual travel products behaved

differently during July. Both air and hotel queries peaked after the schools broke up for the summer, at

the end of the month.

In 2009 hotel & air queries peaked on July 30th. In 2008 queries for these two product types reached their

highest search volumes much earlier, by an average of 20 days. Car related queries behaved differently

in 2008 by peaking later on 1st

July.

Recommendations

Micromanage campaign budgets to exploit earlier query volumes, last seen in 2008 & 2007.

Monitor your CPC bids to achieve your desired position in the context of rising queries.

Prepare seasonal campaigns to capture generic pre-School summer related queries. Keywordexamples could include: Family breaks, family friendly hotels, and holidays for children.

Queries: 9%

Clicks: 4%

Car WoW:

Hotel WoW:Queries: 4%

Start of school summer

holidaysIndexedquerygrowth


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August bank holiday

Figure 5 shows daily travel query volumes in the run up to the August bank holiday for the past three

years. The absolute peaks in travel queries are represented on the graph by the coloured circles for each

respective year.

a) Hotel queries b) Air queries

c) Car queries

Figure 5: Daily travel query volumes for travel products in July & August 2007 2009

Observations

As an average total travel queries peaked exactly 10 days prior to the long weekend in 2007 & 2008. In

2009 total daily travel queries peaked much earlier, some 30 days before the bank holiday. This falls at

the same time when queries were at their highest for the lates school summer holiday period (27th

July).

The school holiday lates market altered normal bank holiday search activity. The pre-long weekend

query peak we expected to see was accounted for in travel searches made at the beginning of the month.

This trend has not been observed previously.

It is normal for travel queries to rise immediately before public holidays. Before the August long weekend

in 2007 & 2008 they did, with WoW growth of 2% & 3% respectively. However in 2009 WoW query

volumes declined by 3%; this enforces the point that value conscious users in 2009 searched for travel

queries relating to late family breaks & bank holiday mini get aways equally throughout the month of

August.

August BH August BH

August BH

Indexedquerygrowth

Indexedquerygrowth

Indexedquerygrowth


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When looking at individual travel products and their search seasonality in the run up to the August 2009

bank holiday, differing trends can be observed. Hotel and air queries typically peaked on the first Monday

before the long weekend in 2007 & 2008. However in 2009 these peaks took place much earlier in

August.

We expect 2010 query seasonality to behave more like patterns seen in 2007 & 2008. Consumer

confidence today is stronger than it was a year ago. Sterling forex rates have improved therefore userresearch into Euro zone & US based holiday destinations is growing YoY (Florida +31% & Greece +23%).

Expect users to search earlier for travel products and allocate budgets for pre and post seasonal holiday

peaks.

Recommendations

Ensure adequate budgets are available in the run up to seasonal holidays to avoid missing out on

your ads appearing against relevant search queries.

Monitor your bids to achieve your desired position in the context of rising queries and also increasedadvertiser competition.

Prepare seasonal campaigns to capture generic bank holiday related queries. Keyword examples

could include: Short breaks, weekend mini-breaks, bank holiday deals.

Remember that demand for short breaks/long weekends is still strong for one-off seasonal holidays


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After the bank holiday

Figure 6 shows indexed query volumes at the end of both the school & August bank holidays, split down

by product type.

Figure 6: Indexed travel query volumes split by product type through September 2009

Observations

All product types saw query uplift after the bank holiday & then again, once the schools holidays ended.

WoW growth immediately after the long weekend was strongest for air queries (11%), then car (9%) &

hotels (6%). Prominent airline seat sales might account for spiking growth in flight queries.

Popular September holiday destinations last year included: Istanbul (46% YoY), Kenya (19%), Tel Aviv

(17%), Tunisia (13%), Jamaica (12%), Australia (8%), Croatia (6%), and Mauritius (6%).

Recommendations

Build in budget to capture the extra demand for travel products after the summer holidays.

Flights are an important purchase consideration for travellers during this period: Increase bids to

maximise your chances of consumers seeing your creatives.

Reassess your match type strategies to increase the chance of your ads appearing against all

relevant queries during this period.

End of school

summer holidays

holidays

August bank

holidayIndexedquerygrowth


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Top summer destinations

In Figures 6-8 we take a look at three types of holiday destinations and compare the relative indexed

query volumes of each in four weeks leading up to:

i) The start of the school summer holidays (blue bars)

ii) The August bank holiday (yellow bars)

The percentages above each destination indicate the YoY query growth in the year to date.

City Breaks

Figure 7: Indexed query volumes for city break destinations in 4 weeks prior summer holidays 2009

Observations

Paris was the most popular city break destination in the build up to both holidays last year,

followed by Barcelona & Amsterdam.

Strong YoY query growth for all city break destinations in the year to date, with the exception of

Barcelona (1%).

City breaks saw the largest cut backs of all holiday types during the recession. This increased

interest in city break destinations in 2010 seems to suggest an increase in consumer confidence.

32%1%

26%

23%

3%Indexedquerygrowth


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Short Haul Sun

Figure 8: Indexed query volumes for short hauls sun destinations in 4 weeks prior to summer holidays 2010

Observations

Turkey was the most popular destination in terms of queries for short haul sun locations. Spain

was popular, receiving more queries pre-school holidays than before the August bank holiday.

Eurozone destinations such as Spain, Greece, and Portugal have seen 27-31% YoY query

growth. This continues to shows great improvement on last years query growth, which is aided

by recovery of the pound against the Euro, making European holidays more affordable than in

2009.

N.B. Growth for Euro zone destinations was at a higher rate in the summer lates market in 2009.This demand was partly driven by over capacity and distress product flooding the market with late

price led demand.

34%

39%

44%

0.5%

29%

27% 31%Indexedquerygrow

th


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Long Haul

Figure 9: Indexed query volumes for long haul destinations in 4 weeks prior to summer holidays 2010

Observations

New York topped the long haul destinations. It received more queries before the August bank

holiday than it did before school holidays. Australia, Florida and Las Vegas experienced volumes

around 55% of New York queries.

US destinations in particular are showing strong YoY growth, notably Las Vegas (52%). This

increase in queries is likely to be influenced by the continued recovery of the pound against the

US dollar.

Of the non-US destinations, Thailand is experiencing the largest YoY query growth (42%),

whereas queries for Australia have some of the highest volumes, likely to be affected by visiting

friends and relatives.

N.B. Some of Thailands strong YoY growth can be linked to recent political unrest in this country.

Queries such as, foreign office advice Thailand&, Thailand travel advice have seen strong

growth year-to-date.

17%

42%

17%

37%

43%

52% 16%

Indexedquerygrowth

Google UK: Travel Report "A Paper of 2 Halves"

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