Poverty Reduction at Risk in Bolivia

An Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty Alleviation Activities

1COLOFON

Text:Javier Gonzales Iwanciw (jgonziw@gmail.com)Pablo Suarez, Red Cross Climate Centre (suarez@climatecentre.org)Editing:Giles Stacey, ENGLISHWORKS (stacey@dds.nl)Layout:Desiree Dirkzwager, ETCCover Design:Marijke Kreikamp, ETC

March 2007

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This paper was commissioned by the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs DirectorateGeneral for International Cooperation (DGIS) under the Netherlands Climate AssistanceProgramme (NCAP) and was prepared by Javier Gonzales Iwanciw and Pablo Suarez. The reportis part of a series of country studies in Bangladesh, Bolivia and Ethiopia and a synthesisreport which are available from www.nlcap.net.

The studies were directed by Maarten van Aalst, Danielle Hirsch and Ian Tellam. ChristinePirenne provided overall guidance and inputs from DGIS. We also gratefully acknowledge thesupport and substantive inputs from various people at the Royal Netherlands Embassies in allthree case study countries, in particular Jan Willem le Grand, Michel van Winden and JanniePoley. Other people at DGIS who provided inputs include Peter de Vries and Fred Smiet.Valuable suggestions were also provided by Phil OKeefe from ETC.

2

3CONTENTS

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5

2. INTRODUCTION 9

2.1. Objectives of this study 9

2.2. Methods and activities 9

3. CLIMATE RISKS 11

3.1. Overview of climate and disasters in Bolivia 11

3.2. Climate change and variability: Observed trends 13

3.2.1. Temperature rise and glacier retreat 13

3.2.2. Floods, droughts and changes in precipitation patterns 15

3.2.3. Forest fires 18

3.3. Climate change: Projected trends 19

3.3.1. Temperature rise and glacier retreat 19

3.3.2. Floods, droughts and changes in precipitation patterns 20

3.4. Current knowledge on climate change issues in Bolivia: Progress and gaps 21

4. BOLIVIA AND THE DUTCH COOPERATION 23

4.1. Development challenges and the Dutch cooperation 23

4.2. Overview of DGIS strategy and national policies 24

4.3. Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Bolivia 25

5. VULNERABILITY OF DGIS-SUPPORTED INITIATIVES TO CLIMATE RISKS 27

5.1. Methodology and risk classification 27

5.2. High risk DGIS initiatives 28

5.2.1. Water and Sanitation 29

5.2.2. National River Basin Program (PNC) 29

5.2.3. Amazonia (PAT) 30

5.2.4. National Institute for Agrarian Reform (INRA) 30

5.2.5. Productive Chains (grape, wood and quinoa) 31

5.3. Medium risk DGIS initiatives 32

5.3.1. National Service of Protected Areas (SERNAP) 33

5.3.2. Ministry of Education (POMA) 33

5.3.3. Bolivian System of Agrarian Technology (SIBTA) 34

5.3.4. Ombudsman 34

5.3.5. Biocommerce 34

45.4. Low risk DGIS initiatives 36National Climate Change Program (PNCC), Capacity Building Ministries(Environment), UNIR (Conflict resolution), AUTAPO Foundation, MDSCapacity Building, Technical Education, Bolivian Strategic ResearchProgram (PIEB), Inverse marketplace

6. CASE STUDIES 39

6.1. Sustainable Production Chains 39

6.1.1. Grape 39

6.1.2. Wood 40

6.1.3. Quinoa 41

6.2. National Institute for Agrarian Reform (INRA) 44

7. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 47

REFERENCES 49

LIST OF ACRONYMS 53

ANNEX A: Summary of climate variability and change in Bolivia 55

ANNEX B: Summary of proposed methodology for assessing climate risks 59

ANNEX C: Overview of the interviews undertaken during the mission 61

51. EXECUTIVE SUMMARYEvidence of climate change is already very compelling in Bolivia, a country with diverselandscapes and an already vulnerable population. Changes in precipitation patterns and glacierretreat resulting from warmer temperatures are affecting the hydrological cycle. Glacierseffectively buffer stream discharge seasonally. Their continued melting, observed during recentdecades throughout the Andean region (and projected to lead to complete glacier disappearance inmany cases), is increasing variability of stream flows, as well as reducing runoff during dryseasons. These changes are expected to accelerate, with substantial negative impacts on waterresources and all the systems that depend on them, from natural ecosystems and agriculture tourban and rural water supply systems.

Rising temperatures are also expanding the spatial range of diseases (notably malaria), increasingthe risk of forest fires, and affecting the growing season of agricultural activities as well as theirsensitivity to pests. Climate change projections based on scientific models are consistent withrecent observations with regards to the increase in frequency and intensity of extreme events suchas floods, droughts and landslides that already endanger people, infrastructure and sensitiveecosystems that are crucial for sustainable development in Bolivia.

Development initiatives (particularly those related directly or indirectly to water resources) faceimportant climate risks, including direct threats (e.g. investments irreversibly damaged bydroughts or floods), under-performance (e.g. investments that cannot deliver projected benefitsdue to inadequate climatic conditions) and maladaptation (e.g. investments that create newvulnerabilities by promoting activities in disaster-prone areas).

It is important to think of these climate risks in the context of the long-term strategic objectives ofthe Dutch cooperation in Bolivia. The Netherlands embassys policies for the country,summarized in the draft Multi-Annual Plan 2005-2008, highlight the assistance to the Boliviangovernment in its institutional strengthening efforts, on all levels, so as to boost efficiency,effectiveness and transparency of the public sector service delivery. One of the five key trendsidentified in this document is the Increased response to the pressure for natural resources use andthe loss of water, soil, forest and bio-diversity (MvT Art. 6 Obj. 1, 2), which is undoubtedlyrelated to climate change. The Strategic Objectives laid out in response to this trend are (5.1)The sustainable use of natural resources is widespread, reversing the loss of environmentalresources and increasing access and improving the distribution of natural resources to women andindigenous groups and (5.2) Social tensions and conflicts related to natural resource use anddistribution will have been reduced significantly.

This report presents an analysis of projects, programs, sectoral and national policies and planswith DGIS involvement in Bolivia from the perspective of their vulnerability to climatevariability and change. DGIS supports a variety of development activities in Bolivia, with aportfolio of 16 ongoing initiatives that emphasizes the areas of education, sustainable productivedevelopment, and strengthening of governance and institutions. While many of thesedevelopment initiatives face important risks due to climate variability and change, little attentionhas been given so far to the threats posed by climate risks to the DGIS portfolio. The issue ofclimate change is generally absent from project documentation, resulting in an undesirableuncertainty about the sustainability of development interventions in the years to come.

Based on review of project documentation, interviews with key stakeholders and a general reviewof the scientific and sectoral literature, DGIS-supported initiatives were classified as low risk(green), medium risk (orange) and high risk (red), depending on their sensitivity to climate aswell as on their relationship to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and nationalpriorities and policies.

The following DGIS-supported initiatives were identified as high risk:

6? Water and Sanitation: Supports reduction in infant mortality and improvements in healththrough the provision of water and sanitation services to about 100,000 people. Most ofthe proposed work depends on reliable levels of river flow and groundwater, a dangerousassumption. Much of the proposed investment may be at risk if climate change trendscontinue to exacerbate variability of the hydrological cycle.

? National River Basin Program (PNC): Supports water and natural resource managementat the river basin level (local and regional) through capacity building and investment inprojects such as irrigation and risk management. Initiative doesnt adequately considerclimate change, which may result in direct threats to new infrastructure,underperformance of interventions (particularly risk reduction measures), and the loss ofopportunities for strengthening coping capacities (i.e. adaptation to climate change)

? Amazonia (PAT): This project, shared with Brazil and Peru, recognizes uncontrolledforest fires as one of the major threats, but does not adequately address the issue of firesoriginated outside the project areas, nor the higher risks of fires and pest outbreaksresulting from climate change trends (including higher temperatures and more frequent,severe droughts)

? National Institute of Agrarian Reform (INRA): Supports process of regularization of landtenure of about 4 million hectares in southern Bolivia, which will result in land titles formarginalized populations (facilitating their access to credit and investment) as well as theprovision of basic infrastructure and services in affected areas (where land use planningis almost non-existent). Project fails to mention climate-related risks, and therefore islikely to result in development that creates vulnerabilities (mostly by encouragingsettlements and investments in disaster-prone areas).

? Production chains: Supports the improvement of the competitive advantage of theclusters of activities involving grape, wood and quinoa (an Andean cereal). Objectivesinclude raising quality and production standards, higher value-added exports, andimproving income levels of families involved in each sector.

Grape: Project documents identify hail, frost, flash floods and other climate-relatedthreats as key risks for the grape sector, yet no measures are proposed to manage thoserisks (which are expected to worsen in a changing climate).

Wood: Project identifies forest management as one of the key activities, but fails toaddress climate-related risks (such as forest fires and pests) which are likely to becomemore severe due to climate change.

Quinoa: The goal of adding value to quinoa through organic certification is threatened bythe possible discountinuity of water resources. Additionally, this crop is very sensitive todroughts, excess rain (fungi) and frosts. These climate-related phenomena may put theproductive and financial components of this project at risk.

DGIS-funded initiatives classified as medium risk include:

? Protected Areas (SERNAP): Climate change may drastically affect the health,distribution and abundance of plant and animal species in ecologically valuable areas.Ecosystems in the Andean and Amazonian regions of Bolivia are highly sensitive towater availability, and evidence from Quaternary pollen records indicate that pastchanges in water supply induced a dramatic reduction in species diversity.

7? Ministry of Education (POMA): Floods and landslides threaten new and existinginfrastructure in hazard-prone areas. More importantly, school absenteeism increasesdramatically during and after extreme events (which are more likely under climatechange). The direct and indirect negative effects of increased climate risks pose a severethreat to the success of education-related MDGs

? Agrarian Technology (SIBTA): Objectives include poverty alleviation, and increasingcompetitiveness through technological innovation in food production chains (mostlyexport crops). Climate change risks may result in underperformance of the proposedapproach. They require targeted innovation in rural production, yet they are not addressedin the project. This may lead to the adoption of inadequate technologies, excessivelyrisky farming practices, and other forms of maladaptation. Food security crops andclusters are neglected. SIBTA constitutes a lost opportunity to support adaptation.

? Ombudsman: Objectives include the protection of human rights in conflict situations;activities include the analysis of potential conflicts and the promotion of preventiveactions. Climate change increases the likelihood of environmental stress (notablyregarding access to increasingly scarce water resources), potentially overstretching theombudsman capacity to anticipate and respond to conflicts.

? Biocommerce: Bolivian ecological systems are very sensitive to changes in temperatureand precipitation associated with climate change. Therefore, the proposed activitiesinvolving sustainable commercial use of native biodiversity are at risk (particularly giventhe fact that no climate change considerations are taken into account in projectdocuments).

In order to address the high risk and medium risk elements of the DGIS portfolio, it would bedesirable to support within key dimensions of project planning and implementation, an integratedclimate risk management approach. Possible options include a preliminary assessment of climatechange vulnerabilities, as well as working with stakeholders in the development of disastermanagement plans and possible adaptation measures for the most climate-sensitive aspects ofeach initiative.

Other elements of the portfolio offer opportunities to accelerate adaptation in Bolivia, includingthe Capacity Building in Ministries, AUTAPO Foundation and Strategic Research Program(PIEB) initiatives, as well as the National Climate Change Program, which could be strengthenedto promote the inclusion of climate change considerations into national planning, education andthe productive sectors of Bolivia.

The current approach to development cooperation certainly contributes to these two strategicobjectives. However, many of the developmental gains resulting from DGIS-supported initiativesin Bolivia are likely to be eroded by a changing climate. Increased frequency and severity offloods, droughts and other climate-related risks pose a substantial threat to sensitive elements ofthe DGIS portfolio. A variety of adaptation measures are available for reducing the vulnerabilityof these initiatives to climate change. This report outlines key dimensions of this vulnerability,and suggest options for dealing with the changing nature of climate risks in Bolivia.

8

92. INTRODUCTION

2.1. Objectives of this studyThere is growing evidence that the global climate is changing, in part as a result of humanactivities (IPCC 2001). Observed changes in average and extreme climatic values over the pasthalf century have been systematically reported (Frich et al. 2002), and are largely consistent withthe projected changes indicated by advanced models of the climate system (Kriktev et al 2003).This global climate change is expected to result in severe impacts on a variety of sectors, notablywater, natural resources, agriculture and health, with particularly negative consequences for themost vulnerable sectors of the global population (UNDP 2003). The international developmentcommunity has been paying increased attention to the issue of climate change and its potentialimplications for poverty reduction efforts (Agrawala 2005), with emphasis in the needs andchallenges of adaptation (Huq et al. 2003, Smith et al. 2003).

The Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs (DGIS) has decided to explore the issue of climaterisks in the context of its bilateral development programme for Bolivia. This study, commissionedby the Environment and Water Department at DGIS, aims to assess (i) how climate change(including changes in variability and extremes) presents significant risk to projects, programmes,sector support and national policies and plans supported by DGIS, and (ii) how climate riskmanagement could be improved.

The report is structured as follows: Section 2 presents the general objectives, methods andactivities of this study. Section 3 discusses climate risks in Bolivia, with an overview of disastersover the past few decades and a description of observed and projected changes in climate andrelated sectors. Section 4 highlights key development issues for the country, including the role ofthe Dutch cooperation and the national climate change adaptation policy. Section 5 discusses thevulnerability of DGIS-supported initiatives to climate risks, classifying the portfolio as presentinghigh, medium or low risk, and outlining possible approaches to manage the risk. Section 6 offerstwo in-depth case studies: Productive chains (grape, wood and quinoa), and National Institute forAgrarian Reform (INRA). Section 7 presents conclusions and recommendations.

2.2. Methods and activitiesIn order to develop the tasks at hand, a review of projects in the DGIS portfolio was conducted toidentify those potentially most sensitive to climate risks. This review consisted of:

? Interviews to key stakeholder (including embassy staff, government and NGO leaders,members of the research community, and staff from international developmentorganizations).

? An in-depth review of project documentation, as well as related materials such as theDGIS Multi-Year Plan (2005-2008).

? An examination of the existing literature and documentation on climate risks, nationalpolicies and programs, and related bilateral and multilateral development initiatives.

The activities outlined above involved two weeks of fieldwork in La Paz and Santa Cruz de laSierra, telephone interviews and email exchanges with relevant stakeholders, and compilation ofdocuments from multiple institutions active in Bolivia. The consulting team analyzed theinformation, designed methods for climate risk assessment of the DGIS portfolio (briefly outlinedin Section 5.1), and prepared this final report. The support of the embassy staff and of the ETCteam is gratefully acknowledged.

10

11

3. CLIMATE RISKS

3.1. Overview of climate and disasters in BoliviaBolivia is a landlocked country situated in the subtropical center of South America. Thetopography is highly diverse, with landscapes ranging from the peaks in the Andean region(reaching over 6,000 meters above sea level) and the Altiplano (high plateau at around 4,000m.a.s.l.) to the Amazonian rainforest, with immense diversity of agroclimatic zones.

The seasonality of rainfall is well defined in Bolivia, with a rainy season from October to Aprilprecipitation peaks during the warmest months of the year) and a drier season for the rest of theyear. The main causes for seasonality are well known and respond to the interaction of two majoratmospheric features: The Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ, a low pressure zone towardsthe Amazonas basin that determines the dynamics of rains) and the Subtropical belt of highpressures in the southern hemisphere (Navarro 2002). Another defining feature of climate in thewestern part of Bolivia is the barrier effect of the Andes, which reduces the presence of clouds,thus the low levels of precipitation in the western part of Bolivia (such as Altiplano and Valleysalong the Andes mountain chain, where annual rainfall can be less than 200 millimeters).

Bolivias physiography and climatic conditions generate a particular mosaic of climate relatedrisks. The most significant disasters are droughts in the western, mountainous and semiarid partof the country, and floods resulting in the flat regions eastwards. Other threats include hail, frost,landslides, snowstorms, extreme cold and hot temperatures, and favorable climate conditions foruncontrolled forest fires (e.g. high temperatures, winds, and sustained dry conditions).

Fig. 1: Ecological regions in Bolivia (Source: Rivera 1992)

Table 1 summarizes the salient features of the countrys climate risks by biogeographic unit.These units have been defined based on the ecological regions presented by Rivera (1992, seeFigure 1) and the biogeographic provinces by Navarro (2002). Following Navarro, the Chaco

12

montano ecological region was considered part of the Central valleys biogeographic unit.Similarly, for the purpose of this study, the Pantanal region has been considered as part ofChiquitania, and the High Puna region is part of the Altiplano.

The categorization of biogeographic regions into low, medium and high risk for differentclimate-related hazards is based on an analysis of the available literature. Annex 1 provides amore detailed description of these climate risks, including a list of most important recent extremeevents and observed trends (1980-2005) as well as climate change projections (1990-2100) foreach of these biogeographic units.

Table 1: Climate risks by biogeographic unit

Biogeographic units(Main vulnerable sectors

supported by DGIS)

Observations 1980 2005Climate Change and Variability

(Relevant risks)

Projections 1990 2100Climate change and Variability

(Relevant risks)

? Low risk? Medium risk? High risk dro

ught

Floo

ds a

ndla

ndsli

des

Hot

Wav

es

Col

d Sp

ells

Hai

l

Snow

stor

ms

Fore

st fi

res

Infe

ctio

usdi

seas

esD

roug

ht

Floo

ds a

ndla

ndsli

des

Hot

Wav

es

Col

d Sp

ells

Hai

l

Snow

stor

ms

Fore

st fi

res

Infe

ctio

usdi

seas

es

Amazonas RainforestForestry sector ? ? ? ? ? ?Northern AltiplanoAgriculture and dairy ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?Central and SouthernAltiplanoQuinoa and camelids

? ? ? ?

Beni GrasslandsCattle raising ? ? ? ? ? ?Central and Southern DryValleysGrape production, watersupply, subsistenceagriculture

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

ChacoWater supply ? ? ? ? ?ChapareForestry and Biodiversity ? ? ? ? ? ?ChiquitanaForestry and Biodiversity ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?YungasAgriculture ? ? ? ? ?

An increase in climate-related emergency and disaster situations has been observed during thepast decade in Bolivia (Figure 2), in particular heavy rainfall events, droughts and forest fires. As

13

the next two sections illustrate, climate change is expected to exacerbate some of the risks thecountry has to face.

Fig. 2: Emergency situations declared during the period 1930-2004 (Source: Rodriguez 2006)

3.2. Climate change and variability observed trends (1980 2005)Evidence of climate change is already very compelling in Bolivia. Glacier retreat and changes inprecipitation patterns are affecting the hydrological cycle, with substantial negative impacts onwater resources and all the systems that depend on them, from natural environments to urbanwater supply systems. Rising temperatures are expanding the spatial range of diseases (notablymalaria), increasing the risk of forest fires, and affecting the growing season of agriculturalactivities as well as their sensitivity to pests. Climate change projections based on scientificmodels are consistent with recent observations with regards to the increase in frequency andintensity of extreme events such as floods, droughts, landslides, heat waves and othermanifestations of climate. These extreme events already endanger people, infrastructure andsensitive ecosystems that are crucial for the countrys development.

3.2.1. Temperature rise and glacier retreat

Bolivian mountain regions, like other mountain regions of the world, have started to showsymptoms of drastic hydrological changes due to the withdrawal of the smallest glaciers and therapid reduction in volume of the major ones (Vincent et al. 2005, Thompson 2000). Tropicalglaciers constitute some of the most sensitive indicators of climate change because of the delicateenergy and water mass balance they embody (Wagnon et al. 1999).

The glacier areas of Bolivia are major providers of water in the country. Besides the fact that thewater contained in glacier reservoirs is used for winter agriculture in the major part of northernAltiplano and for urban uses in the city of La Paz and El Alto, these reservoirs contribute toregulate water among the ecosystems, wetlands and ensure current microclimatic conditions.

Emergency Situations declared by the government of Bolivia 1930 - 2004

17

0 0

19

04 5

12

8

1216

3

7

21

32

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1930

-193

519

36-1

940

1941

-194

519

46-1

950

1951

-195

519

56-1

960

1961

-196

519

66-1

970

1971

-197

519

76-1

980

1981

-198

519

86-1

990

1991

-199

519

96-2

000

2001

-200

4

14

Fig. 3: Chacaltaya Glacier retreat in the Andean region (Source: Ramirez 2005)

Near-surface temperatures have increased substantially over all of the tropical Andes (Vuille et al2003). Since the early 1980s, recession rates increased by a factor of four in glaciers such asCerro Charquini, and the small glaciers below 5,300 m.a.s.l. will disappear completely in the nearfuture if such conditions persist (Rabatel et al. 2006). Figures 3 and 4 illustrate the magnitude ofthe retreat in important Bolivian glaciers. This process is accelerated through a positive feedbackmechanism: Mountain areas that were covered by snow reflected more sunlight before themelting than when the rock is bare. Enhanced absorption of solar radiation rises surfacetemperatures, resulting in increased melt rates (Francou et al 2003).

Fig. 4: Cumulative mass balance of Zongo and Chacaltaya glaciers, 19912001 (source: Francou et al 2003)

15

Changes in meltwater production will exacerbate already critical levels of variability in rivers andstreams (Bradley et al. 2006). Glacier melt contributes up to 35% of the average discharge fromcatchments in the Cordillera Blanca. Since glaciers effectively buffer stream dischargeseasonally, continued glacier melting will likely result in more variable stream flow, and less dry-season runoff (Mark and Seltzer 2003).

The warming trend also is manifesting itself in the health sector. As a result of temperatureincreases, malaria has expanded its incidence area, particularly with regards to high-altitude areasthat used to be too cold for the survival of the mosquito vector. The National Climate ChangeProgram (PNCC) has reported a Malaria outbreak in the village of Tuntunani at 3800 m.a.s.l.,north of the city of La Paz. According to the Human Health expert of PNCC, malaria and denguecan constitute in major threats for the population in the next 5 to 10 years.

3.2.2. Floods, droughts and changes in precipitation patterns

Heavy rains in Bolivia normally occur as of mid-January and continue until February or March.While precipitation during January and February is becoming more intense, the months of theinitiation of the rainy season (August October) are becoming dryer. Farmers in the NorthernAltiplano Region and in the central valleys of Cochabamba have observed a considerable delay inthe initiation of the rainy season of 30 to 60 days and therefore a considerable reduction in thecrop productivity and outputs (MDS 2002).

During 2001, continual rainfall began as early as December and intensified throughout the monthof January. Daily, heavy rainfall resulted in landslides, causing considerable damage in westernareas of the city of La Paz. A large number of houses were destroyed and families evacuated tothe homes of relatives or to temporary shelters. The table below shows the impacts of this event,which struck 7 of the 9 departments in the country.

Table 2: Impacts of the rainy season 2001Departament Number Provinces

AffectedType of Disaster No. of Families

AffectedLA PAZ 9 Landslides/Floods 4629ORURO 1 Floods 450

COCHABAMBA 3 Floods 930TARIJA 1 Flood and Hailstorm 27

BENI 2 Floods 837SANTA CRUZ 1 Floods 240

PANDO 1 Floods 127TOTAL 7240

Source: IFRC Appeal no: 5/2001, 1 February 2001

A similar situation but with higher intensity occurred during the rainy season of 2006 whereaccording to the media and the National Civil Defense Institute, more than 34,000 families havebeen affected. Torrential rainfall across the country caused rivers to burst their banks, swept awaybridges and triggered mudslides. The departments of Potosi, Beni and La Paz were the mostseriously affected. Rainfall in January over regions in northern Bolivia by far exceeded thehistorical average. For example, the highlands region of the country has received 169 percent ofits average annual rainfall during that month (IFRC 2006).

16

In line with findings from most regions of the world, Bolivia seems to be experiencing morefrequent and severe extreme precipitation events (including too much and too little rain). This hasenormous implications for development through multiple mechanisms, in many cases throughsurprising compound effects. For example: Investments aimed at reducing illiteracy tend to focuson infrastructure and capacity building of the education sector. Yet these investments maybecome irrelevant if children do not attend school because of climate-related disasters. Figure 8compares Bolivian drop-out rates public grade schools on a normal year with those of a yeardominated by drought (1997). The proportion of eighth-grade children abandoning school in thedry year was almost 60%, compared to about 5% in the normal year.

Fig. 8: Drop-out rates by grade in the public schools of Presto (Dept of Chuiquisaca, Central Valleys) during anormal year (2003) and a drought year (1997). (Source: Ministry of Education 2004)

Another important issue is that of conflicts over natural resources, chiefly access to water fordrinking and irrigation. As the following example illustrates, water scarcity, compounded withother factors, has already resulted in prolonged disputes in some urban areas. The likelihood ofcivil strife is greatest when multiple, simultaneous events increase grievance. Historical evidenceindicates that environmental protest can play a significant role in regime destabilization(VanDeveer, and Dabelko 1999, Jancar-Webster 1993).

Climate change be a major contributing factor to economic crisis and social unrest, strengtheningthe arguments of sectors that challenge authority (Barnett 2003). As pointed out by Suhrke (1993)manifestations of scarcity can enhance risk of conflict through a variety of mechanisms, includinghigher rates of migration in areas where the population is already living at the margins ofsubsistence, exacerbating existing grievances such as ethnic divisions. Group-identity conflictsare likely to emerge with stronger force.

DROP-OUT RATES BY GRADE, 1997 AND 2003

17

More widespread and violent upheavals in 2003 (of amore political nature) forced the then president toresign and flee the country.

Some argue that the main cause for the increases inwater rates that triggered these water wars inCochabamba and El Alto involved the inadequatemanagement of infrastructure projects (in particulatMisicuni), which allegedly lacked transparency.

While that perspective is certainly valid, anothercontributing factor was undoubtedly the severe waterstress in both regions. Water was particularlydifficult to obtain during the 1982/83, 1997/98,1999/2000 and 2002/2003 seasons. Although thesituations in these two cities were different, thesestruggles are for the same reason, namely wateravailability at fair and transparent prices.

Climate change severely threatens water resources,increasing the risk of violent conflict in Bolivia.(Irrigation is becoming unsustainable in the centralvalley of Cochabamba due to unreliable river flowsand groundwater levels. The city of El Alto dependon Water from the Tuni Condoriri glacier systemwhich is being depleted by glacier retreat associatedwith higher temperatures.).

Water Wars in Bolivia

Foto: www.laredvida.org

Protests involving water rate increases and privatizationof water supply led to clashes between demonstratorsand police forces, resulting in two deaths andsubstantial damage between January and April 2000 inCochabamba. This long campaign was led by analliance including the trade union representingminimum-wage factory workers, peasant farmers,environmentalists and youth. A similar struggle againstwater privatization erupted in the streets of El Alto (alow-income suburb of La Paz) in January 2005.

Development initiatives are at increasing risk from climate change trends also because of theclimate sensitivity of many productive systems including agriculture and forestry. A variety ofmechanisms play a role in this sensitivity to climate, including:

? Changes in productivity: Increased atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide can bebeneficial to photosynthetic activity, but in many cases this beneficial effect is likely tobe countered by reduced productivity resulting from a variety of climate-relatedvariables, notably changes in minimum and maximum temperature, insufficient orexcessive water availability at critical times of plant growth, direct damage (e.g. hail,wind), and changes in the duration of the growth season.

? Outbreaks of pests: While pathogens are an integral part of natural and managedecosystems, climate change could increase their negative impacts through: (1) directeffects of temperature and rainfall changes on the development and survival of herbivoresand pathogens; (2) physiological changes in plant and tree defenses; and (3) indirecteffects from changes in the abundance of the pathogens natural enemies. Because oftheir short life cycles, mobility, reproductive potential, and physiological sensitivity totemperature, even modest climate change will have rapid impacts on their distributionand abundance (Ayres and Lombardero 2000).

? Changes in soil aggregate stability: The structural stability of soils is an indicator of theirability to resist water forces. Recent studies from Bolivia show that soil erodibilityincreases with dry conditions, particularly for agricultural land use (Cerda 2000). Aperiod of drought followed by heavy rains (more likely under a changing climate) couldresult in increased levels of soil erosion, with potentially irreversible negativeconsequences for the systems productivity.

18

An analysis of the historical record of the relationship between climate and natural resourceshighlights the importance of this issue. For example, there is strong evidence that small changesin precipitation in the Amazon Basin have immediate consequences for the survival of theAndean cloud forest (Mourguiart and Ledru 2003). Biological indicators in the geological recordof the Bolivian Eastern Cordillera shows that a major change in water supply induced a dramaticreduction in species diversity. Similarly, late Quaternary pollen records from the southern marginof Amazonia in Bolivia show that rain forest-savanna boundaries are highly sensitive to climaticchange and may also play an important role in rain forest speciation (Mayle et al. 2000).Paleolimnological and archaeological records that span 3,500 years from the Altiplano regionsurrounding Lake Titicaca demonstrate that the collapse of the Tiwanaku civilization (ca. AD1100) coincided with periods of abrupt changes in water balance in the drainage basin (Binford etal 1997, Ortloff et al 1993).

3.2.3. Forest fires

The observed trends in precipitation patterns in Bolivia and elsewhere indicate changes in thefrequency, severity and duration of droughts. Drier conditions can be damaging to natural andmanaged forest ecosystems not only because of their impact on plant productivity, but also due tothe increased risk of uncontrolled fires (which are often initiated by actions deriving from humannegligence). This is compounded by the risk-related effects of logging operations which, bycreating labyrinths of roads and tracks in forests, are increasing fuel loads, desiccation andignition sources in forest interiors. Forest fragmentation also increases fire susceptibility bycreating dry, fire-prone forest edges (Laurance 2000).

In the last ten years forest fires in Bolivia have been exacerbated due to drier conditions inAugust and September. In August 1999 drought and wind exacerbated forest fires in theAscension de Guarayos Provinces, initiated by land habilitation practices, 3000 people loose theirhomes and more than 100.000 hectares of forest were affected. In August 2002 an unprecedentedforest fire burned down more than 20.000 hectares of dry forest in the SAMA Biological Reserveof Tarija in the southern part of the country.

Fig. 5: Vegetation Index (NDVI) of NOAA-AVHRR Difference of the second week of October/2002 and the averageOctober NDVI for the period 1982-2003. (Source: FAO/ARTEMIS database)

19

In September 2004 the Bolivian president issued a law to declare the Beni department inEmergency Situation due to more that 1000 fires initiated by land habilitation practices run out ofcontrol due to the high temperatures, drought and strong variable wind conditions. The densecloud of smoke, which spread over an area of more than 200.000 Km2 including the mountainousregions of La Paz and Cochabamba killed two people while hundreds had to be evacuated. InSeptember 2005 uncontrolled forest fires in Riberalta (North-eastern part of the country) affectedmore than 150.000 hectares of the rain forest. During intense el Nio events 82-83 and 97-98 thewestern part of Bolivia was severe affected by drought.

3.3. Climate change: projected trendsScientific and technological developments in recent decades have led to remarkable progress withregards to our ability to understand and model the climate change process. While several aspectsof model assumptions and parameterization remain somewhat controversial, there is little doubtthat general circulation models (GCMs) can capture the general trends of change in global andregional climate through a simplified representation of the coupled atmospheric-oceanic systemof our planet as it responds to growing levels of concentration of greenhouse gases in theatmosphere. This section describes the main findings regarding projections for Bolivia regarding(i) temperature rise and glacier retreat, (ii) floods, droughts and changes in precipitation patterns,and (iii) forest fires. Other projections include increased chances of hailstorms (resulting from theformation of more convective systems as a result of higher temperatures and increased energyavailability), and extreme temperature events (particularly heat waves).

3.3.1. Temperature rise and glacier retreat

According to global circulation models, temperature will further increase in the coming years,due to the further increase in global greenhouse gas emissions. By year 2010 GCMs already showan increase in mean temperature in the order of 0,5 to 1 ?C over the whole continent, the increaseof temperature will be more notorious in the Amazonas and in the Andes regions of Boliviawhere for an optimistic policy scenario (450 ppm oc CO2 by year 2050)1 the increase in annualmean temperature will be in the order of 1,5 to 2 ?C (see Figure 6).

Fig. 6: Change in Annual Mean Temperature, Year 2050, Scenario WRE 450

1450 ppm is the Europe target to maintain temperature increases below 2C by 2100. This optimistic scenario has been

chosen to show that even if the global community were able to achieve this substantial abatement of Greenhouse Gasespossible (relative to the business as usual scenario), adaptation to climate change would still be needed.

20

These trends will surely affect ecosystem productivity. PNCC experts suggest that temperatureincreases might impact negatively agricultural production in the eastern tropical and subtropicalregions of the country where crops such as soybean, cotton, rice and sugarcane are already abovetheir temperature optimums. In the western mountain regions where crops are below theirtemperature optimums (potato, maize), temperature increases might enhance crop productivity ifreasonable levels of water availability are ensured.

It should be noted that there appears to be consensus in the scientific community about a crucialissue for Bolivian climate risks: modeled changes in temperature increase faster at higheraltitudes (Bradley et al. 2004), with enormous implications for water resources, montaneecosystems and high-altitude agricultural activities. The science supporting these claims is quitestrong, with simulations by Vuille et al (2003) and other scientists realistically reproduce theobserved warming trend as well as the spatial trend pattern (i.e. much larger temperature increasein the eastern Andean slopes than in the western slopes).

3.3.2. Floods, droughts and changes in precipitation patterns

There is considerable support for the idea that the frequency of extreme weather events willincrease over the next century (Katz et al. 2002, Wagner 1999), mostly because of moreavailability of energy and moisture in the atmosphere. In particular, intense precipitation is likelyto occur more frequently, and consequently produce more flooding (Penning-Roswell et al.1996). These perspectives are reinforced by studies based on paleoflood records: A seminal workconducted by Knox (1993) concluded that small changes in temperature (1-2 C) and changes inaverage annual rainfall can result in large changes to flood frequency and magnitude.

Fig. 7: Change in September Precipitation, Year 2050, Scenario WRE 450

General Circulation Models show a slightly increase in precipitation for the major part of theBolivian territory for the same policy scenario, by year 2050 precipitation will increase in theorder of 3 to 9 % during the rainy season (December-February) but decrease during the initiationof the spring and rainy season in the month of September in the order of 3 to 6 % over the majorpart of the Bolivian territory and until 9% in the Amazonas region (see figure 7). These outputs ofGCM are in general consistent with the trends observed since 1990 and with the description of thefurther shortening and delay start of the rainy season, as described in the previous section.

While there are no studies available for Bolivia, groundwater is also expected to be affected, withlower water tables on average, and especially during sustained dry periods. There is also a realrisk (although not assessed) to have more frequent water and energy shortages in large and

21

intermediate cities. The metropolitan area of Cochabamba, with a population of about 1.5 million,is currently experiencing almost continuous water stress. The same is true for other severalintermediate cities in the southern part of the country. As mentioned in section 3.2.2, this islikely to lead to conflicts.

3.4. Current knowledge on climate change issues in Bolivia: Progress and gapsKnowledge of climate change trends, impacts and vulnerabilities is limited to some prioritysectors and regions. There is a general institutional weakness of the national meteorologicalobservation system (particularly at very high altitudes), and very limited participation of Bolivianresearchers in regional and international research networks (MDS 2002(b), Bradley et al 2004). Amajor contribution to the development of local knowledge and expertise in this area was the needto produce the First National Communication of Bolivia to the UNFCCC (2002) whichsummarized research carried out between 1995 2001. This study was mainly motivated by theUS country studies and the Netherlands (NCCSAP I) to prepare a first generation of GreenhouseGas inventories, climate change scenarios and impacts assessments upon water resources,ecosystems and agriculture.

Since then climate change research has increased in thematic breadth and methodological depth,carried out often through collaboration of national and international research institutionsmotivated by activities such as the International Geosphere Biosphere Program (IGBP) andInternational Human Dimensions Program (IHDP), the Interamerican Institute for Global ChangeResearch (IAI) and the National Climate Change Program (PNCC). In this second generation ofstudies the country has put additional efforts to understand the impacts of climate change uponagriculture, vector borne diseases and ecosystems with particular emphasis on mountain regions.

Water resources have attracted the attention of the international community and two of threeregional GEF projects include climate change as an issue: The Andean Trinational GEF projectdeals with the impacts of glacier withdrawal upon water resources and agriculture and the ChacoTrinational project will explore the linkages among desertification, water management andclimate change in a drought prone area. Those projects will contribute to the understanding ofwater resources situation in some of the semiarid of the country. Another GEF-funded project, theStrategic Action Plan for the Bermejo river, also addressed climate change issues. The othermayor trend is the integration of climate change perspectives with disaster preparedness andmunicipal development promoted by the Netherlands Climate Assistance Program, which willcontribute to the linkages between science, local development and policy making.

Despite this progress, there remain important knowledge gaps involving the impacts of climatechange and possible adaptation measures. Additionally, the above-mentioned studies and thework produced by institutions like The Nature Conservancy and the WWF are not well known inthe country. The National Climate Change Program has contributed substantially to givingvisibility to this issue, but a lot remains to be done.

Key research questions on climate change highlighted by the stakeholders interviewed include:

? Changes in hydrological balance, particularly regarding relationship between high andlow river basins. Implications for disaster risk management.

? Changes in relationship between temperature, evapotranspiration, moisture availabilityand health of plants and crops. Implications for subsistence and commercial agriculture.

? Impact on microorganisms in soil. Implications for ecosystems, forestry and agriculture.

22

23

4. BOLIVIA AND THE DUTCH COOPERATION

With a per capita income of 2900 (PPP 2005), Bolivia is the poorest country in South America.64.4% of its population is still under the poverty line and more than 37% live with less a dollarper day. Income disparities are strong: 20% of the low-income population receives less than 4%of the GDP. Poverty indicators are more severe in rural areas and among indigenous people livingin semiarid mountain regions. Indigenous women in rural areas are most affected by poverty (INE2001).

According to Gray (2003), by 2015 Bolivia will still be 13% short of its poverty reduction targetmainly due to low economic grow (less that 4% per year) and the inequities in the structure of theGDP: 83% of the low-income economically active population produce 25% of the GDP and 8,7%of high income enterprises produce more than 65% of the GDP. Difficulties to achieve PRSPgoals will be stronger in rural areas.

Bolivias dependency on natural resources is still high: Agricultural products and primaryproduction contribute still with 12,8% to the GDP, yet this production is not enough to satisfy itsfood security needs. Two major productive sectors have been created in the last 20 years whichhave diversified the traditional mining economy of the country: The natural gas sector (withreservoirs estimated in 52 trillion cubic meters) and the forestry sector which contributes withmore that 3% of the GDP and with 7% of the employment. The forestry sector, like agriculture, ishighly sensitive to climate. The other two main productive sectors (mining and hydrocarbons),while not obviously sensitive to climate change, play a significant role within the mosaic ofenvironmental problems in Bolivia. Mining activities and the uncontrolled use of pesticides havebeen the principal causes of pollution in various important watercourses of the country. If, asprojected by climate change models, water becomes increasingly scarce, water resourcemanagement will be crucial for the countrys sustainable development.

4.1. Development challenges and the Dutch cooperation

There is consensus that 20 years of democracy and market oriented economy have lead thecountry to relative macroeconomic success but has exacerbated the gaps between different groupsof society, with indigenous and rural populations remaining the most disadvantaged. Bolivia isstill heavily dependent on foreign assistance (about USD 220 million per year).

The Netherlands is the fourth largest bilateral donor in the country. As noted by The NetherlandsEmbassy staff, since 1998 the Dutch cooperation in Bolivia has transitioned from a project-basedapproach to a more comprehensive, sectoral approach to development assistance, helping thecountry to deal with entire sectors, providing funds for capacity building and institutionaldevelopment at the governmental level to enable it to fulfill its functions and goals but alsoworking with partner institutions (NGOs, Universities, Private sectors) in innovations that cancontribute to the learning process and improvement of the sector. A large portion of DGISfunding for Bolivia has been executed by national agencies and under the principle of ownership:the country basically decides where those resources have to be invested and in coordination withother bilateral and multilateral agencies interested to contribute to the same goals and/or sectors.

The Dutch cooperation in Bolivia concentrates in three major sectors: Education, SustainableProductive Development, and a broad agenda to help the country to improve governance andinstitutions. Three cross-cutting dimensions are encouraged and assessed in this portfolio: gender,the environment, and indigenous peoples (LIDEMA 2003). Table 3 lists the DGIS portfolio.

24

Table 3: Current DGIS Portfolio in BoliviaProject and/or Program Period Budget

(million USD)Ministry of Education (POMA) 2004 - 2008 68.2National System of Protected Areas (SERNAP) 2004 - 2016 10.8Bolivian System for Agrarian Technology (SIBTA) 2002 - 2008 10.6Amazonia (PAT) 2004 - 2006 8.0National Institute for Agrarian Reform (INRA) 2003 - 2006 7.0Production Chains (wood, grape, quinoa) 2003 - 2008 7.0MDS Capacity Building 2003 - 2007 5.5National Watershed Program (PNC) 2006 - 2011 5.0National Climate Change Program (PNCC) 2004 - 2009 4.1Technical Education 2006 - 2009 3.3AUTAPO Foundation 2005 - 2007 3.2Water and Sanitation (UNICEF) 2006 - 2009 3.0Biocommerce 2003 - 2008 2.7Bolivian Strategic Research Program (PIEB) 2006 - 2010 1.4UNIR (Conflict resolution) 2006 2009 1.2Ombudsman 2001 - 2007 1.0Inverse marketplace 2005 - 2007 1.0

DGIS has been supporting the environment sector of the country, providing long term funding forthe Environment Agency, co-funding the National System of Protected Areas (SERNAP),supporting an international Program of Sustainable Development in the Amazonas, the NationalWatersheds Program and the National Climate Change Program, and since 2005 supporting thedevelopment of a biodiversity platform in cooperation with other donors.

In the context of education DGIS has been providing funds and cooperation to help the countrywith different aspects of the sector, providing funds for educational infrastructure in rural andurban areas, but also contributing to the general tasks of the Ministry of Education. DGIS alsosupports capacity building, education and training activities of Bolivian NGOs and universities.

DGIS is also supporting legal, institutional and financial frameworks of the country to increaseproductivity of selected products in rural areas and provide the means for competitiveness andincome generation. The by DGIS funded activities encompass the consolidation of land tenure inthe Tarija and Chuquisaca Provinces (INRA), the strengthening of the agricultural extension(SIBTA) as well as institutions that can improve the competitiveness of selected productionchains like the quinoa cluster in the Altiplano region, the wine cluster in the Tarija region and thewood cluster in the lowlands. Increasing social capital through these initiatives among ruralproviders and business entrepreneurs might enhance the response capacity to different risks.

4.2. Overview of DGIS strategy and national policiesThe policies of the Netherlands embassy for Bolivia are summarized in the Multi-Annual Plan2005-2008. This document highlights the determination to assist the Bolivian government in itsinstitutional strengthening efforts on all levels, so as to boost efficiency, effectiveness andtransparency of the public sector service delivery. One of the five key trends identified in thisdocument is the Increased response to the pressure for natural resources use and the loss ofwater, soil, forest and bio-diversity (MvT Art. 6 Obj. 1, 2), which is undoubtedly related toclimate change. The Strategic Objectives laid out in response to this trend are (5.1) The

25

sustainable use of natural resources is widespread, reversing the loss of environmental resourcesand increasing access and improving the distribution of natural resources to women andindigenous groups and (5.2) Social tensions and conflicts related to natural resource use anddistribution will have been reduced significantly.

Since the development of the strategies outlined above, the country has experienced dramaticchanges in its institutional makeup, affecting not only the priorities of the government, but alsothe long term vision which will surely put new challenges to the bilateral cooperation between theNetherlands and Bolivia. Institutional changes pointed out by Bolivias National DevelopmentPlan (MPD 2006) have have set a scenario where institutional risks are the most remarkable forDGIS current portfolio. These changes include many new actors at the level of ministries,reevaluation of the State as an active player in the generations and distribution of wealth,nationalization of strategic enterprises and control of strategic resources (e.g. gas, mining,biodiversity) and the difficult agenda that the Bolivian society in general has to accomplishthrough the Constituency Assembly. After less than one year in power, it is too early to saywhether the new governmental changes and visions will sustain in the longer term, even thosesupported by a relative majority of the population.

Climate change risks cannot be isolated from those major processes which will modify theinstitutional structure of the country and therefore enhance adaptive capacity or in contrapositionlead to maladaptation and enhanced risk.

4.3. Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Bolivia

Bolivia signed the UNFCCC convention in 1992 and ratified the agreement 1995. Thisratification led to the constitution of the National Climate Change Program (PNCC) under theEnvironment Authority of Climate Change Focal Point (which to date is the Viceministry ofTerritorial Planning and Environment). Bolivia ratified the Kyoto in 1999. The National ClimateChange Implementation Strategy (ENI) is the legal instrument to carry out climate change actionsin the country. It has been submitted to the Environment Authority on 2001 and will lead climatechange actions in the country towards 2011. The Strategy recommends an evaluation after fiveyears of implementation but to date this evaluation has not been initiated.

In 2004, with support from the Netherlands cooperation (USD 4.1 million), the PNCC launchedits Five Year Plan (Plan Quinquenal) to encourage demand-driven climate change research,formal and informal educational programs, mitigation and adaptation projects at the local leveland to carry out the process of consultations for the National Adaptation Plan2 (PNA). The PNAhas been completed and submitted for its approval to the Focal Point in the early 2006.

The National Adaptation Plan defines the following priorities:? Food Security? Human Health? Water Resources? Forestry Sector and Ecosystems? Human Settlements and Infrastructure

as well as two major cross cutting issues:? Research? Education

2Bolivia is not part of the LDC, thus it has not received funds from GEF for its NAPA process

26

In addition to PNA, Bolivia also started a community-based adaptation process in two vulnerableregions (Titicaca lake region in the Altiplano and Vallegrande region in the central valleys ofBolivia) funded by the Netherlands Climate Assistance Program (NCAP). Both processes led toadaptation and are supposed to be complementary, yet even though this understanding is availablewithin the PNCC staff, this fact is not clearly stated within the PNA.

The major challenge for climate change adaptation is to establish a coherent institutionalframework within the decentralized structure of the country which will be responsible forcarrying out the PNA and implement adaptation measures. The PNCC signed cooperationagreements with the nine departments of Bolivia, yet those agreements lack of practical means toencourage the departmental governments to take actions and implement PNA measures. Thesecond administrative figure promoted by the NCAP project is a Municipality based (bottom up)process of capacity building and institutional agreements, which tends to be more successful, yetaccess to additional financial resources in the context of GEF and formal UNFCCC mechanismsfor capacity building remains a major problem (partly because of the difficulty to increasing thelevel of confidence among the different stakeholders and attracting government interest).

27

5. VULNERABILITY OF DGIS-SUPPORTED INITIATIVES TO CLIMATE RISK

5.1. Methodology and risk classificationBased on review of project documentation, interviews with key stakeholders and a general reviewof the scientific and sectoral literature, DGIS-supported initiatives were classified as low risk(green), medium risk (orange) and high risk (red), depending on their sensitivity to climate aswell as on their relationship to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and nationalpriorities and policies. Annex B summarizes a proposed approach for screening developmentinitiatives in the context of climate risks and MDGs.

Table 4: Classification of risks to the DGIS portfolio

Climate sensitivity

High Medium Low

High ? ? ?Medium ? ? ?

Rel

evan

ce to

MD

G

Low ? ? ?

Classification:

? High Risk: Items in the DGIS portfolio with at least one MDG judged to be highrelevance, high climate sensitivity (?)

? Medium Risk: Items with at least one MDG judged as either high relevance, mediumclimate sensitivity (?) or medium relevance, high climate sensitivity (?)

? Low Risk: Items in the DGIS portfolio that are neither High risk nor medium risk.

28

5.2. High risk DGIS initiatives

Table 5: Summary of elements of the DGIS portfolio classified as High risk

DGISinitiative

DGIS Project relevancy for the MDG

Relevance (large, medium, small)Climate sensitivity (high/red, medium, low/green) Climate change and variability sensibilities and vulnerabilities

Risk management measures and recommendations /Opportunities

1. E

radi

cate

ext

rem

e po

verty

and

hung

er2.

Ach

ive

univ

ersa

l prim

ary

educ

atio

n3.

Pro

mot

e ge

nder

equ

ality

and

empo

wer

wom

en4.

Red

uce

child

mor

talit

y

5. Im

prov

e m

ater

nal h

ealth

6. C

omba

t HIV

/Mal

aria

and

othe

r dise

ases

7. E

nsur

e en

viro

nmen

tal

sust

aina

bilit

y8.

Dev

elop

a g

loba

l par

tner

ship

for d

evel

opm

ent

Water andSanitationUNICEF ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

Most of the proposed work depends on reliable levels of river flowand groundwater for water supply. This is a dangerous assumptionin the context of climate change. Infrastructure at risk due toexpected increase in frequency and intensity of flooding.

Integrate disaster risk management into project planningand development. Assess CC vulnerability of proposedwater sources. Redefine locations based on feasibility ofsustainable provision of services.

NationalWatershedProgram(PNC)

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?Initiative doesnt adequately consider climate-related risks (such asexpected changes in hydrological cycle), which may result in directthreats to new infrastructure as well as underperformance ofproposed interventions. Decentralized approach suggests that localstakeholders do not have knowledge or tools to fully manageclimate risks unless they are clearly included in plan of action.

Mainstream climate vulnerability assessments intoproject planning and development. Integrate climatechange awareness into capacity building efforts at localand regional level.

Amazonia(PAT) ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

The project recognizes uncontrolled forest fires as one of the threeprincipal risk factors in the region, and integrates some(insufficient) preventive measures within its logic framework. Firesare expected to occur more often due to droughts associated withCC. Pest outbreaks expected to increase.

Assess sensitivity of region and intervention measures toclimate change. Improve forest fire managementapproach. Lessons learnt this might be used in otherprojects in the same sector like the wood productionchain.

Nat. Inst. forAgrarianReform(INRA)

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?Project doesnt mention hazard-prone areas, and is likely to giveland tenure to families in places with high flood or landslide risk.Resulting household and community investments will be at risk,particularly given CC predictions of more intense precipitation.

Develop risk maps and hazards management planningtools for target areas. Explicitly exclude risk-prone plotsfrom land title initiatives. Promote relocation ofhouseholds already located in harms way. Includeclimate risk awareness in capacity building.

ProductionChains

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

Grape: Hail, frost and flash floods are key risks for the grape sector.No measures are proposed to manage climate risks.Wood: Project identifies forest management as one of the keyactivities, but fails to address climate-related risks (such as forestfires and pests, likely to become more severe due to CC).Quinoa: organic certification is threatened by the possiblediscountinuity of water resources. Crop is very sensitive todroughts, excess rain (fungi) and frosts. Financial component of thisproject may be put at risk due to climate-related phenomena.

Review sensitivity of production chains to climate riskswith emphasis on climate change projections. Assess keyvulnerabilities, and seek to integrate practices thatminimize climate threats or take advantage ofopportunities given by changing climatic conditions,notably temperature in high altitudes.

29

5.2.1. Water and Sanitation

Supports reduction in infant mortality and health improvements through the provision of waterand sanitation services to about 100,000 people in the Andean, Chaco and Amazonia regions. Theproject document specifies targets relating to MDGs 2, 3, 4 and 7.

The program utilizes low-technology options because of their low cost, easy maintenance andrelatively rapid execution. Sustainability is sought through community participation in theplanning, execution and maintenance. Projects include small-scale water supply (gravity systemsfrom surface water in the Andes, and manual pumps for groundwater in Amazonia), solarshowers and ecological latrines. Most of the proposed work depends on reliable levels of riverflow and groundwater, a dangerous assumption given trends in climate variability and change.

? Direct threats: Much of the proposed investment will be at risk if climate change trendscontinue to exacerbate variability of the hydrological cycle. Flash floods and sustainedflooding events in the Andean region can cause damage to structural elements that capturewater from streams, as well as to transport infrastructure (pipes and canals).

? Underperformance: The projected changes in the hydrological cycle are expected to result inhigher variability of stream flow, with less water during the dry season. This may haveenormous consequences, with prolonged disruptions of water supply in the Andean region.Groundwater levels can also drop substantially, potentially rendering manual pumps uselessin projects implemented in Amazonia. This would inevitably result in underperformance,with this initiative being unable to deliver projected benefits.

? Maladaptation: Providing localized water supply and sanitation in areas where people haveno access to such services will result in a reorganization of communities, with families andproductive endeavors becoming dependent on the newly available services. Householdrelocation and changes in domestic and productive practices should be expected. This willresult in the creation of new vulnerabilities: if as a result of climate risks the new servicesbecome unreliable or completely ineffectual in certain locations, more people may benegatively affected.

? Recommendation: Implement policies and guidelines that address climate risks in the designand maintenance of new and existing infrastructures. Ensure sustainability of new servicesunder climate change conditions.

5.2.2. National River Basin Program (PNC)

Supports water and natural resource management at the river basin level (local and regional)through capacity building and investment in projects such as irrigation and risk management.Economic development, ecologic sustainability and social equity and participation are guidingprinciples of the integrated management process defined in the strategic plan (2007-2011). Animportant component of PNC is the emphasis on constructing management approaches from thebottom up, with foundations at the local level, paying special attention to the unique natural andsocioeconomic characteristics of the micro-level river and stream basins.

This involves an emphasis in community-level decision making and governance (integration ofmultiple local pilot projects into larger-scale watershed management initiatives is expected later).There are many advantages to this approach, particularly given the current emphasis ondecentralization. PNC includes activities for strengthening local capacities for water management.

While the authorities in the ministry of water are aware of global warming and some of its localeffects so far, there isnt adequate information at their disposal for integrating climate changeprojections in the design and implementation of the project. This gap is exacerbated at the locallevel, where formal institutions and community leaders involved in the PNC initiative lack thespecific information about that would be necessary for designing sustainable projects.

30

? Direct threats: The risk of more frequent and intense floods and landslides poses a severethreat to new infrastructure as well as new productive endeavors that are expected to emergefrom PNC-supported processes at the local level.

? Underperformance: Changes in the hydrological cycle, particularly in the Andean watershedsmost dependent on glacier melting, will result in underperformance of proposed measures(particularly irrigation and risk reduction measures) for accomplishing the larger objectives ofeconomic development and ecologic sustainability.

? Maladaptation: There current risk reduction measures can generate a sense of security,encouraging settlements in areas that may remain prone to disasters under a changing climate.

? Recommendation: Raise awareness of climate change observations and projections at thelocal level in order to ensure that climate risks are adequately considered in the design andimplementation of intervention projects. Support opportunities for strengthening copingcapacities (i.e. adaptation to climate change).

5.2.3. Amazonia (PAT)

The project aims to develop best practices for the management and sustainable use of forestresources. Major activities are territorial planning, forest fires prevention, and watershedmanagement. Environmental services of forests are factored in as an outcome of the project.Project documents explicitly address climate change risks. The project documents recognize thatone of the three principal risk factors in the region is uncontrolled forest fires (together withillegal logging and trade and the habilitation of new agriculture land). The project integratesconcrete actions to mitigate this impact. However, it does not adequately address the issue of firesoriginated outside project areas. Located in the southern Madre de Dios river basin, covering thedepartments of Pando (Bolivia), and Madre de Dios (Peru), and the state of Acre (Brazil).

? Direct threats: Higher risk of pest outbreaks resulting from climate change trends (see section3.2.2) may threaten the health of forests, potentially making it impossible to achieve asustainable production of wood and other products. The severity of fire risks is expected torise substantially according to climate change projections (including higher temperatures andmore frequent, severe droughts).

? Underperformance: Even without fires or pest outbreaks, changes in temperature andprecipitation patterns may result in reduced forest productivity, compromising theachievement of project objectives.

? Maladaptation: There is no major risk of creating new vulnerabilities through this project.? Recommendation: Strengthen fire management plans, particularly concerning uncontrolled

fires originated outside of the project areas. Monitor pest outbreaks, and if possible researchthe sensitivity of forest ecosystems to projected changes in precipitation and temperature.

5.2.4. National Institute for Agrarian Reform (INRA)

(Note: This initiative is discussed in detail as a case study in section 6.2). INRA supports processof regularization of land tenure of about 4 million hectares in southern Bolivia, which will resultin land titles for marginalized populations (facilitating their access to credit and investment) aswell as the provision of basic infrastructure and services in affected areas (where land useplanning is almost non-existent).

? Direct threats: There are no major direct climate threats to INRA as an institution.? Underperformance: There are no climate risks affecting the land-titling process proposed.? Maladaptation: Project fails to mention climate-related risks as a criteria for defining which

areas should be excluded from the land-titling process. Therefore it is likely to result in newdevelopment that creates very substantial vulnerabilities (i.e. the establishment of newinfrastructure and agricultural production systems in disaster-prone areas such as floodplains

31

and unstable slopes threatened by landslides).? Recommendation: Integration of climate risk issues into capacity-building efforts already

planned. Mapping of hazard-prone areas. Design, implementation and monitoring of land userestrictions to reduce risk.

5.2.5. Productive Chains (grape, wood and quinoa).

(Note: This initiative is discussed in detail as a case study in section 6.1). Supports theimprovement of the competitive advantage of the clusters of activities involving grape, wood andquinoa (an Andean cereal). Objectives include raising quality and production standards, highervalue-added exports, and improving income levels of families involved in each sector.

Grape: Grapevines (and wine quality) are very sensitive to seasonal climate conditions.Project documents identify hail, frost, flash floods and other climate-related threats as keyrisks for the grape sector, yet no measures are proposed to manage those risks (which areexpected to worsen in a changing climate).

Wood: Project identifies forest management as one of its key activities, but fails toaddress climate-related risks.

Quinoa: Project outlines four components: Financial (e.g. microcredit), capacity building(e.g. training), technological (e.g. innovative tools) and marketing (e.g. promote exports).Quinoa is very sensitive to droughts, excess rain (fungi) and frosts.

? Direct threats: Floods can destroy grapevines, with long-term consequences. A more erraticclimate in the Altiplano may threaten the sustainability of quinoa production. Climate changewill increase risk of pests and forest fires, threatening the forest sector.

? Underperformance: For grape, the ripening of balanced fruit required for existing varietiesand wine styles will become progressively more difficult. Pests and infections currentlylimited by winter cold will expand their ranges to higher altitudes, affecting grape production.Disruptions in output caused by droughts, pests and other climate-sensitive factors triggerdiscontinuities in the production and marketing of products, reducing productivity andreliability, with substantially negative consequences in the financial health of the sector. Forwood, climate factors may reduce forest productivity. Due to changes in soil aggregatestability, a dry period followed by heavy rains (more likely under a changing climate) couldresult in increased levels of soil erosion, with potentially irreversible negative consequencesfor the system. For quinoa, the goal of adding value to the production chain through organiccertification is threatened by the possible discontinuity of water resources. Additionally,inadequate rains are already a main cause for credit default among farmers. A more variableclimate may make it harder for farmers to access credit, reducing their access to inputs andtherefore the expected outcomes of the project.

? Maladaptation: Unless abrupt climate change renders these productive chains totallyunsustainable, there is no major risk of creating new vulnerabilities through this project.

? Recommendation: Explicit recognition of the need to learn about the changing nature ofBolivias climate and its implication for these production chains. Ensuring that the locationschosen for investing in grape, wood and quinoa will offer sustained opportunities forproduction. Monitoring of pests. Research aimed at assessing the vulnerability of these chainsto climate-related threats, mainly pests. Indirect forms of adaptation include financialmechanisms, such as weather insurance and price insurance, to improve capacity to cope withextreme events. For wood, design of comprehensive fire management plans. For grape,selection of varieties that are most suitable for current and projected climatic conditions. Forquinoa, explore possibilities of adapting crop varieties to other arid and semiarid regions ofthe region and the world threatened by climate change to expand choices for food securitystrategies.

32

5.3. Medium risk DGIS initiatives

Table 6: Summary of elements of the DGIS portfolio classified as Medium risk

DGISinitiative

DGIS Project relevancy for the MDGRelevance (large, medium, small)

Climate sensitivity (high, medium, low)Climate change and variability sensibilities

and vulnerabilitiesRisk management measures and recommendations /

Opportunities

1. E

radi

cate

ext

rem

e po

verty

and

hung

er

2. A

chiv

e un

iver

sal p

rimar

yed

ucat

ion

3. P

rom

ote

gend

er e

qual

ity a

ndem

pow

er w

omen

4. R

educ

e ch

ild m

orta

lity

5. Im

prov

e m

ater

nal h

ealth

6. C

omba

t HIV

/Mal

aria

and

othe

r dis

ease

s7.

Ens

ure

envi

ronm

enta

lsu

stai

nabi

lity

8. D

evel

op a

glo

bal p

artn

ersh

ipfo

r dev

elop

men

t

National Systemof Protected Areas(SERNAP) ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

Climate change is not explicitly mentioned in theplanning document, even though it maydrastically alter the health, distribution andabundance of plant and animal species inecologically valuable areas.

Planning of buffer zones, bio-corridors and municipal areas shouldtake into account the possible impacts of climate change.

Ministry ofEducation(POMA) ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

In rural areas more that 50% of the schools donthave access to water and sanitation, whichincrease the risk of infectious diseases. Climatechange can impact the livelihoods of vulnerablepopulation and therefore reduce their capacity toaccess and be maintained in the school.

The POMA suggest the need to consolidate the organization ofeducational clusters and networks with complementary servicestaking into account demographic, lingual and logistically factors andCluster Educational Projects (PEN) Network projects (PER) and forindigenous projects (PEI). This provides a good opportunity forclimate change and climate related educational projects in ruralareas.

Bolivian Systemfor AgrarianTechnology(SIBTA)

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?Climate change is not considered in the project,not as a direct risk factor within the productionchains nor as an indirect risk factor because of itsimpacts upon the complementary services (creditand insurance, infrastructure, etc).

Promote research and extension services for risk management andclimate adaptation. Ensure sustainability of complementary servicessuch as long and short term credit, agriculture insurance, road andcommunications infrastructure, energy, food storage facilities, andother indirect services like adult and technical education.

Biocommerce

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?Bolivian ecological systems are very sensitive tochanges in temperature and precipitation.Proposed activities involving sustainablecommercial use of native biodiversity may be atrisk. No climate change considerations are takeninto account in project documents

Assess vulnerability of targeted species and proposed resourcemanagement approaches to climate variability and change.

Ombudsman

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?Possibility of conflict driven by environmentalcauses and allocation of natural resources(notably water), which can be exacerbated byCC.

Taking into account the possibility of major water stress situationsdriven principally by water contamination and water shortages dueto decrease in rainfall, here is a clear need to forecast and preventclimate driven social conflict situations.

33

5.3.1. National Service of Protected Areas (SERNAP)

The objectives of the project include reducing extreme poverty and ensuring the sustainability ofthe environment through the conservation of natural and cultural heritage within the protectedareas and their surrounding, as well as contributing to local and national economic and socialdevelopment through alternative and sustainable business. Major activities include theconsolidating mechanisms for managing biodiversity, enhancing connectivity of protected areasthrough buffer zones and biocorridors and the involvement of the municipal and departmentalprotected areas in the System. SERNAP has been supported by a basket fund (GEF, GTZ, theNetherlands, Swiss among others) and is currently undergoing severe institutional changes.

? Direct threats: Climate change may drastically affect the health, distribution and abundanceof plant and animal species in ecologically valuable areas. Ecosystems in the Andean andAmazonian regions of Bolivia are highly sensitive to water availability, and evidence fromQuaternary pollen records indicate that past changes in water supply induced a dramaticreduction in species diversity. Protected Areas will be impacted by higher risk of drought,pests and forest fires.

? Underperformance: SERNAP may not be able to ensure the conservation of some fragileecosystems and endangered species because of climate change.

? Maladaptation: There is no major risk of creating new vulnerabilities through this project.? Recommendations: Promote research on the impacts of climate change upon the Protected

Areas System and its biodiversity, through collaboration between SERNAP, NGOs, academiaand other stakeholders. Planning of biocorridors and buffer zones need to take into accountclimate change considerations.

5.3.2. Ministry of Education (POMA)

The objectives of the program are to build capacity within the Ministry of Education, to reducethe barriers for access and permanence of the population to a good quality education and thepromotion of a multicultural and bilingual education. The Multiyear Operative Program 2004 2008 (POMA) articulates different levels, areas and modalities of the National Education System.

? Direct threats: Floods and landslides threaten new and existing infrastructure. According togovernment staff, direct threats on educational infrastructure are low. However, there are nospecifications for risk management in school construction and maintenance.

? Underperformance: School absenteeism and drop-out rates increase dramatically during andafter extreme events (see Figure 8). Droughts have the largest impact, and are projected tobecome more frequent and severe under climate change, particularly in the central valleys ofBolivia. The direct and indirect negative effects of increased climate risks pose a severe threatto the success of education-related MDGs.

? Maladaptation: There is no major risk of creating new vulnerabilities through this project.? Recommendations: Integrate hazard management considerations in the guidelines for

construction of new educational facilities. Monitor climate-related absenteeismoa nd drop-outrates and, if necessary, support strategies to address root causes (i.e. nutrition deficit). ThePOMA suggest the need to consolidate the organization of educational clusters and networkswith complementary services taking into account demographic, lingual and logisticallyfactors and Cluster Educational Projects (PEN) Network projects (PER) and for indigenousprojects (PEI). This provides a good opportunity for climate change and climate relatededucational projects in rural areas.

34

5.3.3. Bolivian System of Agrarian Technology (SIBTA)

The objectives include poverty alleviation through income generation activities, increasingcompetitiveness though technological innovation in food production chains (mostly export crops),and contributing to the conservation of genetic resources. Activities include the facilitation ofprimary production, food storage, food processing and market participation within prioritizedproduction chains. To date in a critical situation of institutional change SIBTA funds reach morethan USD 60 million constituted by an IDB loan of 34 Mio, 10 Mio from the Bolivian State and20 Mio Basket Fund (Holland, DFID, COSUDE, GTZ).

? Direct threats: There are no major direct climate threats to SIBTA as an institution.? Underperformance: Climate change is expected to change precipitation and temperature

patterns, and therefore requires targeted innovation in rural production. Yet this is notaddressed in the project, and may lead to the adoption of inadequate technologies, excessivelyrisky farming practices. There is therefore a risk of underperformance of the incomegeneration and poverty reduction targets of this initiative.

? Maladaptation: SIBTA has put major emphasis on export-oriented productive chains, whereasfood security crops and clusters have been neglected. If crops selected for promotion are notable to cope with climate change, this institution may lead Bolivia towards an export-orientedapproach that is not sustainable.

? Recommendation: Integrate strategies aimed at making Bolivian agriculture more resilient toclimate change (e.g. research on climate sensitivities of different crop varieties, particularlythe drought-resistant ones like quinoa and amaranto). SIBTA offers an opportunity to supportadaptation in the subsistence farming sector, which would be in line with the food sovereigntyapproach of the current government.

5.3.4. Ombudsman

Objectives include reducing the violation of human rights of more vulnerable population, andprotecting human rights in conflict situations. Activities include the implementation of a socialmonitoring system analysis of potential conflicts and the promotion of preventive actions. Thisinitiative has received support through multiple donors (Netherlands, Canada, COSUDE,Denmark, Sweden, Belgium and UNDP).

? Direct threats: there are no direct threats related with climate change.? Underperformance: Environmental cases have increased in the last ten years related with

water contamination and privatization of water services. Climate change increases thelikelihood of environmental stress (notably regarding access to increasingly scarce waterresources). Therefore, climate risks may overstretching the ombudsman capacity to anticipateand respond to conflicts.

? Maladaptation: There is no major risk of creating new vulnerabilities through this project.? Recommendation: Integrate a climate dimension to the ombudsmans work, with particular

attention to the monitoring and analysis of critical social systems sensitive to water stress andother environmental resource scarcity situations.

5.3.5. Biocommerce

Bolivias diverse and rich ecological systems are not generating substantial economic benefits forthe country and its people. This project aims at reducing poverty and promoting sustainabledevelopment, generating economic benefits through the commercialization of products andservices derived from the native biological resources. The biocommerce initiative involvessubstantial investment in institutional dimensions (e.g. legal framework, financial support,information systems, capacity building). About one million USD is dedicated to the developmentof productive chains (e.g. orchids, reptiles for meat and skin). The project document, in its

35

discussion of project feasibility, identifies sociopolitical instability, market concerns and otherissues as potential threats. Climate risks are not mentioned (reflecting the assumption that thenatural system is stable). Yet ecological systems are very sensitive to changes in temperature andprecipitation associated with climate change.

? Direct threats: As discussed in section 3.2, climate phenomena may threaten the health ofspecies and ecosystems through multiple mechanisms. Certain species of commercial value(notably orchids) are unable to withstand events such as drought and extreme temperatures(which are more likely to occur in the coming decades). Therefore, the proposed activitiesinvolving sustainable commercial use of native biodiversity can be at risk.

? Underperformance: Environmental degradation associated with climate change may impairthe productivity of ecosystems and of extremely climate-sensitive species. As a result, theeconomic benefits of the project may turn out well below expectations.

? Maladaptation: There is no major risk of creating new vulnerabilities through this project.? Recommendation: Assess the feasibility of different productive chains considering their

capacity to cope with climate variability and change. Give preference to the sustainable use ofbiological resources that are more resilient to climate threats.

36

5.4. Low risk DGIS initiatives

Table 7: Summary of elements of the DGIS portfolio classified as Low risk

DGISinitiative

DGIS Project relevancy for the MDGRelevance (large, medium, small)

Climate sensitivity (high/red, medium, low/green)Climate change and variabili