Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?
description
Transcript of Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?
![Page 1: Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816780550346895ddc8a1f/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Going sustainable in the 21st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?Prof Ray Wills
Managing DirectorFuture Smart Strategies
Leader Western AustraliaBlue Australasia
Adjunct ProfessorThe University of Western Australia
Deputy Chair, and Chief AdviserSustainable Energy Association of Australia
@ProfRayWills
![Page 2: Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816780550346895ddc8a1f/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Adoption rate of technology Markets tell us how quickly disruptive technologies can
impact Natural rate of turnover and retirement in technology But, adoption of new technology rarely just ‘natural’ Transitions to new technology will be more rapid where
changes are favoured by: consumer sentiment; policy measures and regulation; pricing advantage.
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. (Niels Bohr)
![Page 3: Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816780550346895ddc8a1f/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Roger’s diffusion curve
![Page 4: Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816780550346895ddc8a1f/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Wake up and smell the roses
Buggy whips -> combustion engine -> EVs? (Electric) typewriter -> word processor -> PC PC -> desktop -> laptop -> tablet Landline -> mobile -> smartphone (BlackBerry) Record shops Vinyl -> CD -> (Apple Store) VHS/Beta -> DVD -> BlueRay Book Shops Boutique -> mega -> (Amazon) Retail shop-> Boutique-> chain/mega -> Internet Energy -> chopping wood -> coal -> wind -> solar
![Page 5: Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816780550346895ddc8a1f/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Technology adoption rates – US Will solar panels be dishwashers or VCRs? (Will there ever be any more dishwashers??)
NY Times
![Page 6: Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816780550346895ddc8a1f/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Technology adoption rates - vehicles
Zoepf 2011
![Page 7: Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816780550346895ddc8a1f/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Technology adoption - manufacturers
Zoepf 2011
![Page 8: Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816780550346895ddc8a1f/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Technology adoption rates - vehicles
Zoepf 2011
![Page 9: Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816780550346895ddc8a1f/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
The Big Bang Theory
NY Times
![Page 10: Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816780550346895ddc8a1f/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Technology adoption rates
![Page 11: Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816780550346895ddc8a1f/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
![Page 12: Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816780550346895ddc8a1f/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Technology energy use
www.epri.com
Televisions
LaptopTabletComputer
![Page 13: Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816780550346895ddc8a1f/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Electricity generation - Australia
![Page 14: Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816780550346895ddc8a1f/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Renewable energy growth
Data IEA
![Page 15: Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816780550346895ddc8a1f/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Potential EV growth
![Page 16: Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816780550346895ddc8a1f/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Global renewables 2014 +>
![Page 17: Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816780550346895ddc8a1f/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Declining price on solar
![Page 18: Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816780550346895ddc8a1f/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Declining price on solar
![Page 19: Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816780550346895ddc8a1f/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Global renewables
![Page 20: Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816780550346895ddc8a1f/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
![Page 21: Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816780550346895ddc8a1f/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Global energy – fossil and renewables
![Page 22: Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816780550346895ddc8a1f/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Global energy – impact on emissions
![Page 23: Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816780550346895ddc8a1f/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
US energy sources changing
![Page 24: Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816780550346895ddc8a1f/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Solar on Australian homes 1.2 million solar installs in Australia, total 3.3 GW of capacity; output
estimated 4500 GWh of electricity in the 12 months to March 2014. WA – 155,000 rooftops with solar, a total of 364MW of solar capacity Mandurah (postcode 6210) – over 7500 homes, 15 MW of capacity
![Page 25: Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816780550346895ddc8a1f/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Solving energy poverty
![Page 26: Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816780550346895ddc8a1f/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Evolving markets
![Page 27: Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816780550346895ddc8a1f/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Solar and storage fight energy poverty Developing nations can meet modest domestic power
needs with solar. Means storage is already economically affordable.
![Page 28: Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816780550346895ddc8a1f/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
@ProfRayWills
![Page 29: Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816780550346895ddc8a1f/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Efficiency in transport Energy storage key New tech may be disruptive
Rapid change - mobility
![Page 30: Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816780550346895ddc8a1f/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Electric mass transit Siemens Bordeaux
light rail Hybrid battery-electric Bombardier wireless
battery-electric Bombardier Slim Ride Series 700 Shinkansen
![Page 31: Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816780550346895ddc8a1f/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Commercialvehicles
Smith Newton electric truck Diesel Electric hybrids Honda prime mover Volvo Hybrid - Veolia London Bus
- diesel hybrid, and electric CAT Haul Pak + Earthmover Oshkosh Military Vehicle
![Page 32: Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816780550346895ddc8a1f/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Flying and floating fuels 25 Feb 08 - Virgin Atlantic 1st biofuel flight (But 1st USAF - 30 Oct 07) (QANTAS much later 14 Feb 11 ) 13 Sep 11 – US Navy announces
Green Strike Group, powered by renewable diesel-electric engines, nuclear power and aviation biofuels operating independent of fossil fuel supply line threat or disruption
And other diesel electric drives - MAN diesel
![Page 33: Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816780550346895ddc8a1f/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Smart grids devices and buildings – and microgrids…
Integrated energy planning smart devices (not grids) to coordinate the actions of devices such as loads & generators
Distributed generation changes utility paradigm
![Page 34: Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816780550346895ddc8a1f/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Green cities consuming less energy
Global Tianjin Eco-City China Ulsan Ecocity Korea Masdar City UAE
Australia City of Sydney City of Melbourne City of Townsville City of Fremantle
Local government critical Nimble government Community demand
![Page 35: Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816780550346895ddc8a1f/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Increasing pace of technology adoption Big decrease in developmental lag Innovation/development
of new products Supply side capabilities Market competition Growing consumer expectations Higher level of communication
between consumers - blogspace CSR, reputation and CFOs Regulation Energy just a commodity
![Page 36: Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue?](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062501/56816780550346895ddc8a1f/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)