Summary of Phase I

Existing Conditions Assessment

Board of Directors

May 7, 2009

Martin Kim, Director of Regional Planning

Urbanization Trends

Population:

346,864 Urbanized Area:

66.2 sq miles Population Density:

5,236 pop/sq mi

Urbanization Trends

Population:

723,955 Urbanized Area:

327.6 sq miles Population Density:

2,210 pop/sq mi

How do you envision the Region in 2040?

??

Going Places – An Integrated Land Use Vision of the Miami Valley Region

is to bring the Miami Valley Region

TOGETHER and to make this Region a BETTER PLACE

to live, work, and play with a Shared Land Use Vision

Planning Process

3 Phase process with an estimated timeline of 4 years Phase I – Existing Condition Assessment: Physical and Non-

Physical Condition Evaluation Phase II – Future Landscape Exploration: Future Land Use

Scenario Development and Assessment Phase III – Building a Clear and Shared Regional Growth

Framework

Phase I Structure

Physical Condition Evaluation – Land Supply Evaluate the Region’s land development suitability based on

both natural and built environment factors Examine the existing uses of land, including land use

intensities in the Region Identify developable land in the Region

Non-Physical Condition Evaluation – Land Demand Identify how much land is devoted to different types of land

uses Identify socio-economic trends and develop projections Translate these projections into future land demand

Completed Studies

Physical Condition Evaluation - Land Supply Open Space Assessment Land Suitability Assessment – Natural Environment Factors Land Suitability Assessment – Built Environment Factors Land Development Suitability Assessment

Non – Physical Condition Evaluation - Land Demand Economic Base Assessment Housing Assessment Industrial Development Assessment Commercial Development Assessment Land Use Demand Assessment

Study reports available on MVRPC’s Going Places website at www.mvrpc.org/rlu/

What have we found out?

Geographically, development has been uneven

Commercial GLA Concentration: 2007Housing Unit Change: 1990 - 2000

Development has been shifting among land use types

Land Use Percentage Change: 1975 - 2000

Residential Commercial IndustrialAgricultural/Open Space

Region 36.3% 148.1% 22.0% -9.3%

- Greene 30.2% 85.9% -10.7% -4.4%

- Miami 123.8% 183.3% 81.7% -5.9%

- Montgomery 25.6% 161.1% 20.3% -17.9%

The Region contains varying degrees of potential for future land development

Not all of our land is equal in terms of development potential – some areas are better suited for physical development than others

Assessment of Region’s landscape from natural and built environment perspectives provided a comprehensive overview of where developmental constraints and/or opportunities exist

Land Suitability Assessment – Natural Environment

Natural Environment Suitability Composite Map

Regional Land by Development Potential Classification

Land Suitability Assessment – Built Environment

Residential Suitability Composite Map Non-Residential Suitability Composite Map

Comprehensive Land Suitability Measure

Land Development Condition Measure

Land Developability Measure

The Region is in the process of a demographic and economic shift

Population is aging and household size has been decreasing

The Region is shifting from a production-based economy to a service-based economy

Household income has remained stagnant Number of households who pay more than 30% of their

income on housing-related cost has been increasing

Land development not tied to population change

Population in the Region remained relatively stable between 1970 and 2000

Between 1975 and 2000, total developed land (res/com/ind) in the Region increased by 44.6%

Vacancy Rates have increased Residential vacancy rate has risen from 6.34% in 1980 to

6.98% in 2000 14.6% of the Region’s commercial space is vacant* 19.3% of the Region’s industrial space is vacant*

* Estimates were calculated based on Gem Real Estate Group’s sample data from their Retail, Office, and Industrial studies

If current development trends continue, a moderate amount of additional developed land will be required

Regional Population Projections Regional Employment Projections

The Region has enough developable land to accommodate future needs

Supply Vs. Demand

The entire Region will benefit if..

Development is planned and executed in a manner that takes advantage of existing infrastructure before paying for new construction

Development takes advantage of the Region’s natural resources without threatening their quality