Going One Step Beyond in North Denver€“2035 PCL •Partial Cover Lowered •Address community...

Going One Step Beyond

in North Denver

Michael Ogletree

Denver Environmental Health

January 7, 2016

A Neighborhood Scale Air Pollution Modeling Assessment

Part I : Predicted Mobile Emissions in 2035

Purpose

• To compare current conditions to future emissions– 2011 Base Case

– 2035 PCL• Partial Cover Lowered

• Address community concerns

around “Hot-Spots”– Compare results from CDOT

– Additional compounds

• Provide assurance to the community that air quality in 2035 will be cleaner than it is today

2January 7, 2016 Going One Step Beyond in Denver - Part I

Motor Vehicles Emission Simulator (MOVES)

• Developed by the EPA and used by state agencies for State Implementation Plan (SIP) and transportation conformity

• Most recently updated in November 2015– MOVES2014a

– This update did not include significant changes to the criteria pollutant emissions results of MOVES2014 (EPA)

• MOVES2014 (released in October 2014) was used for our analysis– Different from CDOT & CDPHE

– MOVES2010b


Emissions Modeling Procedure

4

Traffic DataMeteorological

Data

Fuel & Control

Program Data

Vehicle Fleet

Data

EPA MOVES2014

Emissions Factors by

Pollutants

Post-Processing

NOx EmissionsPM Emissions Benzene Emissions

January 7, 2016 Going One Step Beyond in Denver - Part I

Denver County Annual Emissions


0

2

4

6

8

0

2

4

6

8

De

nve

r V

MT

(Bill

ion

s)

Tho

usa

nd

s

NOx (Tons)

0

50

100

150Total PM2.5 (Tons)

0

2

4

6

8

0

50

100

150

200D

en

ver

VM

T (B

illio

ns)

Benzene (Tons)

Project Area of Primary Focus


Model Scenarios


Winter

2011 Base

AM PM

MD OP

Summer

AM PM

MD OP

Winter

2035 PCL

AM PM

MD OP

Summer

AM PM

MD OP

AM = 6:30-9:00

MD (Midday) = 9:00-15:00

PM = 15:00-19:00

OP (Off Peak) = 19:00-6:30

PM Modeling Components

• PM2.5 & PM10

• Exhaust emissions

– Emitted directly from tailpipe

– Elemental carbon, iron, organic carbon, etc.

– Tailpipe emissions also lead to secondary

particulate matter like nitrate and sulfate

• Brake and Tire wear

• Road Dust


Road Dust - LimitationsFrom the South Coast (California) Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD) I-710 Environmental Impact Statement Air Quality Technical Report (February 2012):

• Road dust lofted (entrained) into the air by passing vehicles result in increased inhalable particulate matter levels in some areas very near to the highway compared to the baseline.– Brake and tire wear particulate matter is different and will grow with added vehicles and/or VMT

• The increases in dust may be an artifact of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) calculation method for entrained road dust and are inconsistent with the South Coast Air Quality Management District’s 2007 Air Quality Management Plan (AQMP) methodology and proposed 2012 AQMP method, which do not result in the growth of entrained dust seen in the U.S. EPA method.

• The EPA equation to calculate road dust assumes that roads have infinite amounts of dust (also known as silt reservoirs) to entrain. – Basically for each added vehicle or vehicle mile traveled (VMT), more and more silt is deposited onto the highway and

becomes available for resuspension. DEH contends there is a finite amount of dust that can be added to any roadway, and that is related mostly to meteorology (wind) and not the number of vehicles.

• If re-entrained road dust growth were excluded or assumed to not grow, all project alternatives reduce emissions from the baseline year.

• SCAQMD proposed a modified methodology for entrained PM emissions as part of their 2012 AQMP development. In SCAQMD’s proposed methodology, baseline year PM10 and PM2.5 estimates will be lower, particularly PM2.5 estimates.

• Most importantly, future year entrained PM will remain constant (unless the roadway is lengthened or widened).

• I-70 will be widened and would be expected to have some increase in resuspended road dust. However,the calculations used for this modeling result in what we consider to be a very conservative (highamount).

• DEH expects future year dust and the resulting total PM concentrations to be lower than predicted here.


PM2.5

• PM2.5 is particulate matter that is ≤ 2.5µm (microns or micrometers {millionths of a meter})– 1/30th the width of a human hair

• Sources of PM2.5

– Fossil fuel combustion• Gas and diesel vehicles

• Wood burning

• Health effects– Irritation of the eyes, nose, and throat

– Reduced lung function

– Asthma attacks

– Those most at risk are those with heart or lung diseases, children and older adults.


PM2.5 Emissions


98,811

-84%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

BASE CASE (2011) PCL (2035)

Gra

ms/

Day

January PM2.5 Exhaust Comparison

65,128

-77%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000


Gra

ms/

Day

July PM2.5 Exhaust Comparison


-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Base Case (2011) PCL (2035)

GR

AM

S/D

AY

(X

10

00

)

January PM2.5

PM2.5 Exhaust PM2.5 B&T PM2.5 Road Dust

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180


GR

AM

S/D

AY

(X

10

00

)

July PM2.5

PM2.5 Exhaust PM2.5 B&T PM2.5 Road Dust

PM2.5 Breakdown


PM2.5 January Breakdown 2011 vs 2035

PM2.5 Exhaust

63.5%

PM2.5 B&T

2.3%

PM2.5 Road Dust

34.2%

January PM2.5 Base Case (2011)

PM2.5 Exhaust

18.6%

PM2.5 B&T

7.6%

PM2.5 Road Dust

73.7%

January PM2.5 PCL (2035)


PM2.5 July Breakdown 2011 vs 2035

PM2.5 Exhaust

17.6%

PM2.5 B&T

7.7%

PM2.5 Road Dust

74.7%

July PM2.5 PCL (2035)

PM2.5 Exhaust

53.4%

PM2.5 B&T

2.9%

PM2.5 Road Dust

43.7%

July PM2.5 Base Case (2011)

PM10

• PM10 is particulate matter that is ≤ 10µm (microns or micrometers)– About 1/5th of a human hair

• Sources of PM10

– Brake and tire wear

– Construction activities

– Re-entrained road dust

• Health effects– Irritation of the eyes, nose, and throat

– Coughing, chest tightness and shortness of breath

– Reduced lung function

– Asthma attacks

– Those most at risk are those with heart or lung diseases, children and older adults.


PM10 Modeled Comparison


85,172

-33%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000


Gra

ms/

Day

January PM10 Exhaust Comparison

63,521

-11%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000


Gra

ms/

Day

July PM10 Exhaust Comparison


-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400


GR

AM

S/D

AY

(X

10

00

)

July PM10

PM10 Exhaust PM10 B&T PM10 Road Dust

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400


GR

AM

S/D

AY

(X

10

00

)

January PM10

PM10 Exhaust PM10 B&T PM10 Road Dust

PM10 Breakdown


PM10 January Breakdown 2011 vs 2035

PM10 Exhaust

26.2%

PM10 B&T

8.4%PM10 Road Dust

65.5%

January PM10 Base Case (2011)

PM10 Exhaust

15.6%

PM10 B&T

14.0%

PM10 Road Dust

70.4%

January PM10 PCL (2035)


PM10 July Breakdown 2011 vs 2035

PM10

Exhaust

15.4%

PM10 B&T

14.0%

PM10 Road Dust

70.5%

July PM10 PCL (2035)

PM10 Exhaust

20.9%

PM10 B&T

9.0%

PM10 Road Dust

70.1%

July PM10 Base Case (2011)

NOx

• NOx consists of a group of highly reactive gases. Includes: nitric oxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) It contributes to secondary PM2.5 as well as the creation of ground level ozone.

• Sources– Vehicle emissions

• On-road and off-road vehicles

• Construction equipment

– Power plants

• Health effects– Airway inflammation in healthy people

– Increased respiratory symptoms in people with asthma


NOx Modeled Comparison


1,329,092

-87%

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000


Gra

ms/

Day

January NOx Exhaust Comparison

1,246,912

-88%

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000


Gra

ms/

Day

July NOx Exhaust Comparison

Benzene

• Benzene is an organic compound with high flammability and volatility used as a component in gasoline because of its high octane number.

• Sources– Vehicle exhaust

– Refineries and gasoline service stations

– Wood burning

• Health effects– Known to cause cancer

– Irritation of the eyes, skin, and respiratory system


Benzene Modeled Comparison


*Evaporative emissions could not be included in the model at the project level

9,823

-80%

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000


Gra

ms/

Day

January Benzene Exhaust Comparison

8,355

-80%

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000


Gra

ms/

Day

July Benzene Exhaust Comparison

What’s Next?

• Incorporate 2035 emissions data into AERMOD to generate predicted future year concentrations

• Compare to current health based standards

• The first step in a larger process– Air monitoring for PM10, PM2.5, CO, NOx, certain VOCs

like benzene, and soot begins @ Swansea Elem in 2016

– One year of pre-construction (baseline), 3 years during construction, one year post construction

– EPA grant to conduct two 4-6 week intensive sampling periods to determine near highway gradients to verify modeling


Disclaimer: This work was performed by Denver Environmental Health (DEH) independently

from the Colorado Dept of Transportation (CDOT). CDOT did answer a few

technical questions along the way regarding some of the assumptions were

made. Similar modeling tools were used by both agencies (MOVES, AERMOD).

This project builds upon work that DEH completed in 2005 and was funded by

Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) and CDOT in 2004. FHWA/CDOT did not

provide funding for this phase of work. DEH did this work in response to citizen

and other interested stakeholders concerns regarding near highway gradients

and hot-spots. CDOT did review this presentation but otherwise has had not

formally reviewed the technical work products. The materials produced are wholly

owned by the City and County of Denver Dept. of Environmental Health.

For more information Contact Michael Ogletree, Gregg Thomas, or Lisa Clay with the Denver

Department of Environmental Health


Going One Step Beyond in North Denver€“2035 PCL •Partial Cover Lowered •Address community...

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