GOES-R: Bringing Critical New Capability to Automated Aviation Weather Products Paul H. Herzegh
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Transcript of GOES-R: Bringing Critical New Capability to Automated Aviation Weather Products Paul H. Herzegh
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GOES-R: Bringing Critical New Capability
to Automated Aviation Weather Products
Paul H. HerzeghNational Center for Atmospheric Research
With acknowledgements to Timothy Schmit (CIMSS)Gary Ellrod (NESDIS)
Anthony Schreiner (CIMSS)
May 12, 2004
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Aviation Weather Product Delivery/Flow
Automated Aviation Wx Products/Guidance• Volcanic Ash• Turbulence (clear air, convectively-induced, terrain-i)• Icing• Ceiling and Visibility• Winds (flight level and below)• Convection (initiation, diagnosis, nowcast, forecast)• Space Weather (health/comm hazards)
FAA AWRPNCAR, MIT, FSL,
NRL, others.
NASAAvSP, ASAP,
CIMSS.
NOAANESDIS, NCEP,
AWC, others.
Funding, Personnel, Data,Techniques, R&D.
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AWRP Aviation Wx Products• Volcanic Ash• Turbulence (CAT, CIT)• Icing• Ceiling and Visibility• Convection• Winds (flight level and below)• Space Weather (health/comm)
Test Products
NCAR, MIT websites for structured user trials.
OperationalProducts
NOAA AWCOperational
home & distribution
point.
Operational Users• FAA Flight Service Stations• Airline met/dispatch depts.• Airport operators• Air traffic met support (CWSU)• Pilot / cockpit• Commercial Av. Wx. services• Volcanic ash centers (VAAC’s)
Aviation Weather Product Delivery/Flow
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AWRP Aviation Wx Products• Volcanic Ash• Turbulence (CAT, CIT)• Icing• Ceiling and Visibility• Convection• Winds• Space Weather (health/comm)
Aviation Weather Product Overview
Current: VA SIGMET display
Future: VA analysis & fcst .
Current: CAT fcst product.
Current: Icing fcst product.
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AWRP Aviation Wx Products• Volcanic Ash• Turbulence (CAT, CIT)• Icing• Ceiling and Visibility• Convection• Winds• Space Weather (health/comm)
Aviation Weather Product Overview
Current: C&V test product.
Current: Convective nowcast.
Future: Improved 3-D winds.
Possible Future: Polar route space wx.
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EXPERT SYSTEM-BASED FORECAST BLENDING PROCESS(Weighted Simple Additive Model)
Display: Website, ADDS,Cockpit, Other.
Analysis and/or Forecast Product
PIREPS PIREPS & &
AIREPSAIREPS
Climat-Climat-ologyology
Other Other ForecastsNowcasts,
or methods.
Future Future methods methods
& & sources.sources.
NWP INPUT
- RUC- Eta- GFS- Other
Relevant Relevant ObsObs
-- METARS- RAOBS- Radar- Others
GOES & GOES & GOES GOES
ProductsProducts
POES & POES & POES POES
ProductsProducts
DATABASE
FORECAST COMPONENT
PERFORMANCE.
FORECAST INTEGRATION
WEIGHTS
Based on recent forecast
performance.
Feedback Loop
Generalized AWRP Product Synthesis
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GOES-R Enabling Capability Impact on Av. Products
- Turbulence Likelihood field. - Convective initiation, nowcast, forecast.
Resolution: mountain waves
GOES-8 Simulated GOES-ROzone Detection (Schmidt & Li)- New 9.6 μm ABI channel for obs at high temporal/spatial resolution. - HES ozone accuracy.- Synergistic ABI/HES use.
Turbulence Likelihood field via tropopause folding.
Water Vapor Tracer (Wimmers)- Synergistic ABI/HES use.
HES/ABI Sounding Improvement- 4-D improvement in stability, winds, moisture.
- Turbulence Likelihood field.
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GOES-R Enabling Capability Impact on Av. Products
Cloud Properties- Cloud masking- Cloud top height/temperature- Cloud top phase (ice/water) Critical Improvement to:
- Ceiling and visibility products- In-flight icing products
Critical Improvement to:- Convective Nowcasting- Diagnosis of severe oceanic Conv.- Convective storm evolution.- Improved NWP initialization.- Early volc eruption alert? (Electrified eruption cloud)
Geo Lightning Mapper
Fog & Low Cloud Detection
GOES-10 Simulated GOES-R
Critical to:- Airport ops- Overnight flts- AM ops
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A Focus on GOES-R Impacts – Volcanic Ash
GOES-R Enabling Capabilities
• ABI - All spectral channels for ash (8)
• Key IR upper-level SO2 (7.3, 8.5 μm)
• Spatial & temporal resolution (5-15 min;
0.5-2 km)
- Continuity for plume tracking
- Resolution for hot spot analysis
• HES/ABI Satwinds for plume tracking.
• Temp/wind profiles for plume heights.
• CO2 slicing for plume heights.
• Others..
Intermediate GOES-R Products
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Enabling Intermediate GOES-R Products for VA
Ellrod RGB-rendered ash analysis adjusted for day
and night.
Upper-level SO2 with ABI 15 min frequency.
Thermal hot-spot monitoring for eruption
alert.
AWRP Product Value Added:- Fusion- Automation, animation- User interface- Edit/display tools- History database- etc.
Automated guidance/support to AWC,
VAAC’s, others.
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.. and many more impacts and opportunities to improve aviation safety and efficiency.