Goal-oriented modulation as a model for dealing with problems of sustainable

development

René Kemp

UNU-MERIT, ICIS & DRIFT

Key problems for GoSD

Dissent Uncertainty about long-term effects Distributed control Changing wants Determination of short-term steps for long-

term change Danger of lock-in Political myopia

Dealing with dissent through

Problem structuring Formulation of shared goals for

functional systems Exploration of different visions

Uncertainty about long-term effects Calls for risk assessment, technology

assessment for learning Flexible designs, adaptive

management, portfolios and capital-extensive solutions for increasing the capacity to react

Changing wants calls for

Flexible options Diversity of options

Distributed control calls for

Joint decision-making and network management but this is not enough: interactive governance should be concerned with expressing long-term aims and the management of transition processes

The shaping of society from below

Determination of short-term steps for long-term change

Integrated assessment of futures Path analysis leading to the

identification of robust options, goals and short-term actions that generate useful actions

Danger of lock-in suggests

Use of portfolios Prudence

Political myopia

Political commitment to transitions Use of transition agendas, adaptive

programmes for system innovation

Reflexivity

First-order reflexivity Second-order reflexivity: governance

which understands itself as part of actions-effects feedback loops

Reflexive strategies injecting feedback in actor-rule system dynamics

Intended and unintended effectsin material, social, and cultural worlds

Intended and unintended effectsin material, social, and cultural worlds

Actor structuring: Group formation, socialization

System structuringand restructuring

Governance System: CulturalFrames, social institutions, physical structures and tools

Actors

Strategy building

Actions

Processstructuring

BroaderLandscape: Material conditions, externalagents, larger socio-culturalcontexts

Transdisciplinary knowledge production

Participatory goal formulation

Strategic experiments

Interactive strategy development

Anticipation of long-term systemic effects

Transdisciplinary knowledge production

Participatory goal formulation

Strategic experiments

Interactive strategy development

Anticipation of long-term systemic effects

Source: Voss and Kemp (2005) based on Burns and Flam (1987)

The Dutch model of Transition management

…. is a deliberate effort to work towards a transition in a stepwise, adaptive manner, utilising dynamics and

visions… in which different visions and routes are explored:

system innovation and optimisation

Transition Management: bifocal instead of myopic

Political margins for

change

State of development of solutions

Societal goals

Sustainability visions

Transition management: oriented towards long-term sustainability goals and visions, iterative and reflexive (bifocal)

Existing policy process: short-term goals (myopic)

Mathematically transition management = current policies + long-term vision + vertical and horizontal coordination of policies + portfolio-management + process management.

... is bottom-up and top-down, using strategic experiments and control policies

2050 Biomass 20-40% of primary energy supply ‘Vision’

2020‘Strategic goals’10-15% in power prod. 15-20% in traffic

2003 2 à 3 %

‘Transition Paths’

C. Biofuels

B. Pyrolysis

A. Gasification

ExpvE

OS

Exp

Exp EOS: experiments : R&D

No definitive choice is made as to technological means

Different routes are investigated Decisions are made in an interactive

and iterative way Support is temporary Each option has to proof its worth Technology choices are made at the

decentralized level

  Incrementalism Goal-oriented modulation —of which TM is an example

Planning

Key actors Private and public actors

Private and public actors

Bureaucrats and experts

Steering philosophy

Partisan mutual adaptation

Modulation of developments to collectively chosen goals, government is facilitator & mediator

Hierarchy

Structuring form

Polyarchy Heterarchy 

Hierarchy

Role for anticipation

Limited (no long-term goals)

Dynamic anticipation of desired futures as basis for interaction

Future is anticipated and implemented

Type of learning

First-order: learning about quick fixes for remedying immediate ills

Second-order and first-order (rethink following problem structuring)

First-order (instrumental)

Mechanism for coordination

Markets and emergent institutionalisation

Markets, network management, institutionalisation (both designed and emergent)

Hierarchy (top-down)

Degree of adaptivity

Adaptive Highly adaptive thanks to especially created adaptive capacity

Hardly adaptive

Role for strategy and plans

Limited role Important role for goals and strategic experiments for exploring social trajectories, as apart of adaptive programmes for system innovation.

Plans with steps

Interest mediation/ conflict resolution

Individual gains for everyone

Rewards for innovators, phase out of non-sustainable practices through markets and politics

Little mediation (implementation and enforcement)

Type of change that is sought

Incremental, non-disruptive change

System innovation and system improvement

Predetermined outcome

Transition management as a form of context steering through anticipatory and adaptive governance that is explicitly concerned with learning and institutional change, which relies on variation and selection for dealing with problems of steering.

is perhaps the third way that political theorists have long been looking for

1. The orientation to transition goals (less short-termism)2. The orientation to learning and innovation (helps to

overcome the preference for quick results, and policy reliance on technical fixes)

3. Alignment of different policy domains (helps to deal with fragmented policies)

4. Programmes for system innovation based on visions of sustainability

5. Less domination by vested interests: opening up of policy process

What’s new about transition management?