Go West California February 2012
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Transcript of Go West California February 2012
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Go West California
February 2012
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Global Economic Growth
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World EconomiesDecelerating
Not Collapsing
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Advanced EconomiesAvoid Recession
Except Euro
Slower Growth
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Emerging EconomiesWeaker Growth
Deteriorating External Environment
Slower Domestic Demand
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U.S. Economy
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Housing Affordability Index
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Apartment Rent Increases Y/Y
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Rent vs. Own
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Rent Increases and Desire for Homeownership
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Change In House Price
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Home Prices w/ and w/o Distressed Sales
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2009 2010 2011 2012
U.S. Economic Growth (% Change Year over Year)
Forecast
Zero
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Will Euro Survive?
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Recipe for RecessionCredit Crunch
Fiscal Restraint Low Confidence
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- 1
0
1
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2009 2010 2011 2012
Eurozone Economic Growth (% Change Year over Year)
Forecast
Zero
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Eurozone Jobless Rate
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What to Do?Austerity
Restructure LoansFiscal Union
Breakup
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IreIreland
Outstanding
Portugal Greece Spain IItaly
Outstanding Debt by Country
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Asia: Go West
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Asia’s Contribution to Global GDP Growth
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AsiaNot Just Cheap
Goods
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Computational Photography
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Who’s Bigger? China or Japan
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ChinaBig Consumer
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China’s Love Affair with Cars
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Buy a Car and Buy a Flat
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Growth, Not Inflation
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China RisksEurope
Real Estate Local Gov’t Debt
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New Home Prices in China 70 Cities
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China’s Trade Surplus
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Chinese Currency Appreciation
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China: Current Account Surplus % GDP
2.7%
10.1%
U.S. Says
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Japan Unemployment Rate
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Japan RisksExports to Europe
Strong Yen Recovery after
Tsunami
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Risks Medium-termEuro: Sovereign Debt CrisisU.S and Japan: DeficitsChina: Real Estate BubbleOil: Iran Supply Shock
panWeaker Food PricesVolatile Oil Prices
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