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GNP Jan 19 11 - San Diego · 1990 2009 2030 Total Hh 1990 2009 2030 Total Persons per Household...
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Socioeconomic Presentation to North Park Community Plan Update North Park Community Plan Update Advisory Committee Wednesday, January 19, 2011 Balboa Park, War Memorial Building, Room 2 Balboa Park, War Memorial Building, Room 2
Transcript of GNP Jan 19 11 - San Diego · 1990 2009 2030 Total Hh 1990 2009 2030 Total Persons per Household...
Socioeconomic Presentation to North Park Community Plan UpdateNorth Park Community Plan Update
Advisory Committee
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Balboa Park, War Memorial Building, Room 2Balboa Park, War Memorial Building, Room 2
Estimated Total Population
G t N th P k
1,650,0001,800,000
City
55,00060,000
Greater North Park
4% of the City’s Pop.
3.4% of the City’s Pop.
1,200,0001,350,0001,500,000
40,00045,00050,000 4% of the
City’s Pop.
y p
750,000900,000
1,050,000
25,00030,00035,000
150 000300,000450,000600,000
5 00010,00015,00020,000
0150,000
Total Pop. 1990 Total 2009
05,000
Total Pop. 1990 Total 2009
2Sources: U.S. Census; San Diego Association of Governments
Total Pop. 1990 Total 2009
Total Pop. 2030
Total Pop. 1990 Total 2009
Total Pop. 2030
Estimated Number of Households (Hh)
45 00050,000
Greater North Park
900 0001,000,000
City
30 00035,00040,00045,000
5 6% 4 8%
4.8% of
Cit ’ 600 000700,000800,000900,000
15,00020,00025,00030,000 5.6%
of City’s
4.8% of
City’s
City’s
300,000400,000500,000600,000
05,00010,000,
0100,000200,000300,000
Total Hh
1990 2009 2030
Total Hh
1990 2009 2030Total Persons per Household
3Sources: U.S. Census; San Diego Association of Governments
Total Persons per HouseholdArea 1990 2009 2030
Greater North Park 1.94 2.06 2.08City 2.61 2.74 2.70
Total Estimated Housing Units
70,000
Greater North Park700,000
City
50,000
60,000
500,000
600,000
30,000
40,000 4.5% of City
300,000
400,0005.6% of City
4.9% of City
10 000
20,000
,
100 000
200,000
,
0
10,000
1990 2009 2030
0
100,000
4Sources: U.S. Census; San Diego Association of Governments
1990 2009 2030 1990 2009 2030
2009 Estimated Housing Units b S T
Greater North Park
by Structure TypeCity
20%1%
20%61%
41%44%
20%61%
13%
Single Family Detached
Single Family Multiple Units
Single Family DetachedSingle Family Multiple UnitsMultifamily
Source: San Diego Association of Governments 5
Single Family Multiple Units
Multifamily
yMobile Homes
Age CohortsGreater North Park and the CityGreater North Park and the City
35%
199035%
2009
20%
25%
30%
20%
25%
30%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0%
5%
0‐4
5‐13
4‐17
8‐24
5‐34
5‐44
5‐59
0‐64
5‐74 75+
0%
5%
er 5
5‐14
5‐17
8‐24
5‐34
5‐44
5‐59
0‐64
5‐74 75+
5 14 18 25 35 45 60 65
Greater North Park
City of San DiegoUnd
e 5 15 18 25 35 45 60 65
Greater North Park
City of San DiegoCity of San Diego City of San Diego
6Source: U.S. Census; San Diego Association of Governments
Population Race and EthnicityG t N th P k 1990 G t N th P k 2009
18%%5%
1%Greater North Park 1990
5%
0.4%Greater North Park 2009
5%
18%8%34%11%
L d E h i i
68%
45%
City 2009
Hispanic
White (Non Hispanic)
Black/Afr. Amer. (Non Hispanic)
Legend Ethnicity
28%
4%0.4%
City 2009
16%
Asian/Pac. Islander (Non Hispanic)
American Indian (Non Hispanic)
Other21%
11%
City 2009.06%
28%
7%
9%
7
45%
Sources: U.S. Census; San Diego Association of Governments
59%
Estimated Median Household Income (MHI) and Median Age
Median Household IncomeIn Constant 2009$
40
Median Age
$60 000
$70,000
$80,000
73% of
70% of City’s 30
35
40
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000 73% of City’s MHI
yMHI
20
25
$10 000
$20,000
$30,000
5
10
15
$0
$10,000
1990 2009
0
5
1990 2009
8Sources: U.S. Census; San Diego Association of Governments; City of San Diego
Greater North Park City Greater North Park City
Apartment (Apt.) RentsApartment (Apt.) RentsZip Code Area 92104
Average 2‐ Bedroom Apt. Rents Zip Code 92104 and City
1800
1400
1600
1800
71% of
800
1000
1200City Rent
400
600
800
0
200
92104 City92104 City
9Source: San Diego County Apartment Association
2009 Affordable Housing Index (AHI)The information presented details the percentage of households in zip code area 92104 with median incomes that could afford to purchase this zip code area’s 2009 median priced home.
An AHI percentage details what percent of each geography’s population could afford to purchase the geography’s
The median priced home is based on DataQuick’s combined median price of homes sold in 2009.
• Cost of combined median priced home (2009) 100%
purchase the geography s reported median priced home sold in 2009
o Zip code 92104 $245,000o City Zip Code Areas $355,000
•2009 Required annual household income to afford 30% H i
80%
100%
on Housingo Zip code area 92104 $51,295o City Zip Code Areas $74,325
• Median Household Incomeo Zip code 92104 $47 454
46.5% 47.5%
40%
60%
o Zip code 92104 $47,454o City Zip Code Areas $74,325
• Change in the combined median home price 2006 to 2009
o Zip Code 92104 ‐45% 0%
20%
po City Zip Code Areas ‐31%
10
Zip Code 92104 City
Sources: DataQuick; City of San Diego; San Diego Association of Governments
E l t Sh C i P i t J bEmployment, 20021
20%
25%
Employment Share Comparison, Private Jobs
10%
15%
20%
0%
5%
Greater North Park City
11Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Note:1 This Employment Share Comparison does not include Public Sector jobs. Additionally, the U.S, Census Bureau data is based on the address where the employers issues pay checks. The CA Employment Development Department provides data for 2nd Quarter to the Census Bureau for Employment Share comparison.
Employment, 2008 Employment Share Comparison, Private Jobs
20%
25%
10%
15%
0%
5%
Greater North Park City
12Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Note:1 This Employment Share Comparison does not include Public Sector jobs. Additionally, the U.S. Census Bureau data is based on the address where the employers issues pay checks. The CA Employment Development Department provides data for 2nd Quarter to the Census Bureau for Employment Share comparison.
Jobs to Housing Ratio 2008Greater North Park and the City
Employment Information, 2008
• Total JobsEmployment Development Department
1 6
Jobs to Housing Ratio 2008
(EDD)– Greater North Park 6,648– City 714,880
• Total Private Jobs SANDAGGreater North Park 6 056 1.2
1.4
1.6
– Greater North Park 6,056– City 592,300
• Public Sector Jobs– Greater North Park 267– City 150,830 0.8
1
Total jobs used for Jobs to Housing Ratio
– Greater North Park 6,323City 743 130
0.4
0.6 17.4% of City’s Ratio
– City 743,130
Jobs to Housing Ratio– Greater North Park 0.25– City 1.46
0
0.2
Greater North Park Cityy y
13
Sources: California Employment Development Department; San Diego Association Governments; City of San Diego
Greater North Park Community Plan Area Industry Sectors that Lost Jobs from 2002 to 2008Industry Sectors that Lost Jobs from 2002 to 2008
Retail Trade 73%
Manufacturing
Greater
12%
Real Estate & Leasing
Construction
North ParkCity
8%
6%
Management of Co. 1%
‐125% ‐100% ‐75% ‐50% ‐25% 0% 25%
Transport & Warehousing
% of G t N th P k
1%
Percent Change within Industry, 2002 to 2008Greater North Park
Total Job Loss
14Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; City of San Diego
Greater North Park Community Plan Area Industry Sectors that Gained Jobs from 2002 to 2008
Other Services
Health Care & Soc. Ass.Greater North Park
City
24%
18%
Accom. & Food Services
Professional Services
d l
y14%
14%
10%Educational Services
Wholesale Trade
Information
10%
10%
5%Information
Finance and Insurance
Admin. Support & Waste
5%
5%
2%
‐25% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175%
Arts, Enter. & Rec.
% of Greater North Park Total
2%
15Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; City of San Diego
North Park Total Job Growth
16
Estimated Taxable Retail Sales in Constant 2009 Dollars ($000,000)in Constant 2009 Dollars ($000,000)
Greater North Park, 1990 and 2009 City, 1990 and 2009$60 $6,000
$30
$40
$50
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$10
$20
$30
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$0 $0
1990 Total Sales $227 1990 Total Sales $17 0221990 Total Sales $227
2009 Total Sales $171
17Sources: MuniServices; City of San Diego
1990 Total Sales $17,022
2009 Total Sales $16,872
Percent Change in Estimated Taxable Retail Sales by SBE Type from 1990 to 2009
All Other Outlets
Apparelpp
Autos
Eat & Drink
Food Stores
Other Retail
Package Liq orPackage Liquor
Gas Stations
Aggregated Nondisclosure
‐100% ‐75% ‐50% ‐25% 0% 25% 50%
gg g
Total Estimated Retail Sales
18
Greater NorthPark City
Sources: MuniServices; City of San Diego
Percent of Estimated Total Taxable Sales by SBE1 Retail Typey yp
1990 200935% 35%
20%25%30%
20%
25%
30%
5%10%15%
5%
10%
15%
0% 0%
Greater North Park City
19Sources: MuniService; City of San Diego
Greater North Park City
Estimated Total Taxable Sales Per Household Populationp
in Constant 2009$
$16 033$18,000
$16,033 $14,328
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
$5 088$6 000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$5,088 $4,019
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$0
1990 2009
Greater North Park CityGreater North Park City
Sources: MuniServices; City of San Diego 20
Estimated Taxable Sales Per Household Population by SBE Retail Type 1990 and 2009 in Constant 2009$by SBE Retail Type, 1990 and 2009 in Constant 2009$
$5 000$5,500 1990
$5 000$5,500 2009
$3 000$3,500$4,000$4,500$5,000
$3 000$3,500$4,000$4,500$5,000
$1 000$1,500$2,000$2,500$3,000
$1 000$1,500$2,000$2,500$3,000
$0$500
$1,000
$0$500
$1,000
Greater North Park City Greater North Park City
Sources: MuniServices; City of San Diego 21
Greater North Park lRetail Properties
Freestanding Retail Mixed Use (Retail/Residential)
Storefront Retail Storefront Retail \Office22
Greater North ParkRetail PropertiesRetail Properties
Total Square Feet of il
1,600,000 1,700,000
Retail Space
1 200 0001,300,000 1,400,000 1,500,000
1,000,000 1,100,000 1,200,000
1st quarter 2010 CoStar data reported a total of 365 retail buildings and 1,626,324
23
square feet of retail space tracked in the Greater North Park community plan area.
Sources: CoStar; City of San Diego
Retail PropertyGreater North Park
30,000
40,000
10,000
20,000
t
(10,000)
0
06 1Q
06 2Q
06 3Q
06 4Q
07 1Q
07 2Q
07 3Q
07 4Q
08 1Q
08 2Q
08 3Q
08 4Q
09 1Q
09 2Q
09 3Q
09 4Q
10 1Q
Squa
re Feet
(30,000)
(20,000) 200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
201S
(50,000)
(40,000)
New Construction Delivered by Quarter Total Net Absorption by Quarter
24Source: CoStar
Retail Property
Retail Vacancy Rates Retail Lease Rates Per Square Foot (nnn)8.0%$2 50
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
$2.00
$2.50
2 0%
3.0%
4.0%
$1.00
$1.50
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
4
$0.00
$0.50
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Greater North Park City2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Greater North Park City
25Source: CoStar
Retail Propertyp yVacancy Rates for specific Retail Property Types, 2006
Vacancy Rates for specific Retail Property Types, 2009
10%
12%
14%
10%
12%
14%
4%
6%
8%
4%
6%
8%
0%
2%
4%
0%
2%
4%
Freestanding Storefront (Mixed Use)
Restaurant
Greater North Park City
Freestanding Storefront (Mixed Use)
Restaurant
Greater North Park City
Source: CoStar26
Estimated Retail Market Demand1
Using Population, Household Income and Other Market Assumptions
2,500,000
167,751
1 631 1731,750,000
2,000,000
2,250,000
il Space
1,651,924 108,511
1,631,173
1,000,000
1,250,000
1,500,000
eet o
f Retai
429 295
1,050,503
250 000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
Squa
re Fe
304,468 429,295 0
250,000
2008 20300‐1 Retail 1‐3 Retail 3‐5 Retail 2008 Current Retail in GNP CPA0‐1 Retail 1‐3 Retail 3‐5 Retail 2008 Current Retail in GNP CPA
Sources: City of San Diego; San Diego Association of Governments; CoStar; State Board of Equalization; ESRI‐Business Analyst27
Note:1Geographic center point for radii data used for analysis in Greater North Park is 2963 Gunn Street. Data provided by SANDAG.
Industrial PropertiesGreater North Park
Location and Total Space
90 000100,000
Total Square Feet of Industrial Space
60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000
20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
28
1st quarter 2010 CoStar data includes a total of 10 industrial buildings and 88,789 square feet of industrial space tracked in the Greater North Park community plan area.
Sources: CoStar; City of San Diego
Industrial Properties Greater North Park
Industrial ‐Warehouse Industrial – Self StorageIndustrial Warehouse
Industrial‐ General Industrial ‐ Service29
Industrial Property
Vacancy Rates Industrial Lease Rates Per Square Foot (nnn)
18 0%
12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%
$0 80
$1.00
$1.20
6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%
$0 40
$0.60
$0.80
0.0%2.0%4.0%
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Greater North Park City2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Greater North Park City
30Source: CoStar
Office Properties Greater North Park
Location and Total Space
T l S F f
540 000
550,000
Total Square Feet of Office Space
520,000
530,000
540,000
500,000
510,000
1st 2010 C S d i l d l f 109 ffi b ildi d 545 970
31
1st quarter 2010 CoStar data includes a total of 109 office buildings and 545,970 square feet of office space tracked in the Greater North Park community plan area.
Sources: CoStar; City of San Diego
Office PropertiesGreater North Park
Medical Office Office – no secondary property typeMedical Office Office no secondary property type
32Office – no secondary property type Office – high rise
Office PropertyGreater North ParkGreater North Park
30,000 Construction Delivered and Net Total Absorption
15,000
20,000
25,000
0
5,000
10,000
are Feet
(10,000)
(5,000)
0
2000
1Q
2000
3Q
2001
1Q
2001
3Q
2002
1Q
2002
3Q
2003
1Q
2003
3Q
2004
1Q
2004
3Q
2005
1Q
2005
3Q
2006
1Q
2006
3Q
2007
1Q
2007
3Q
2008
1Q
2008
3Q
2009
1Q
2009
3Q
2010
1QSq
ua
(25,000)
(20,000)
(15,000)
New Construction Delivered by Quarter Total Net Absorption by Quarter( , )
33Source: CoStar
Office Property
Office Vacancy Rates Office Lease Rates Per Square Foot (nnn)18%
12%
14%
16%
$2.50
$3.00
8%
10%
12%
$1.50
$2.00
2%
4%
6%
$0.50
$1.00
0%
2%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
$0.00
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Greater North Park City
34
Greater North Park City
Source: CoStar
Presenter: William Anderson, FAICP, Director
Cit Pl i d C it I t tCity Planning and Community Investment
For Questions Contact: Toni Dillon, Economic Research Coordinator
City Planning and Community Investment
Email: [email protected]
Phone: 619.533.6339Phone: 619.533.6339
