Globefish Highlights - Issue 1/2010 › 3 › a-bb195e.pdfFish oil prices move up again World ﬁsh...

HIGHLIGHTSA quarterly update based on the GLOBEFISH databank

Crisis seems to be over also for shrimp industryDuring 2009 the strong yen has made shrimp imports and landing prices cheaper in the Japanese market. The EU mar-ket took advantage of the low

shrimp prices experienced in 2009, and overall imports were stable. p. 1

Recession hits tuna industry The global recession has had a wide range of effects on

the seafood sector generally, and the tuna industry more specifically. From a demand perspective, consumers in the US and Europe are changing

their purchasing preferences by focussing on price. On both continents, consumers are substituting seafood products with less expensive sources of protein, such as chicken, or buying less expensive seafood or a smaller amount of the same quality. p. 6

Lower groundfish prices in all major marketsIn 2009 a number of groundfish resources showed good signs of recovery, after several rather bleak years. The one

major exception to this trend was the Alaskan groundfish fishery. Good supply to all major markets combined with ongoing economic crisis led to declining prices. p.11

Limited squid supply, but price increases did not follow

Squid catches were low in the South West Atlantic and in Peruvian waters in 2009. Supply to the world market

was about 300 000 tonnes lower than in 2008, but prices did not go up as expected. The main reason was the bleak economic climate, especially in Spain. p. 14

Tilapia market recovery began in fourth quarter of 2009

Tilapia markets were influenced by the difficult economic situation and by low groundfish prices in all major markets. USA is still the major tilapia importing country,

while China and Egypt are the main tilapia consuming countries. p. 17

30/1/2010

Difficult year comes to a positive endAlthough the supply of farmed pangasius in Viet Nam was lower in 2009 than in 2008 because of poor demand and lower prices, by the end of

the year processors had managed to turn the situation around and the total value of exports almost reached the 2008 level, ending at USD 1.3 billion. p. 19

2010: a difficult year for producers but better than 2009

2010 will be a crucial year for the European seabass and seabream industry. Low prices for bream over the past years

and the more recent price decline for bass have put pressure on company results. As a consequence, many producers are facing economic difficulties and are in need of strengthening their capital base. p. 21

Tight supplies in 2010 and firming pricesFarmed salmon prices are markedly higher in the European market and are expected to remain firm during

2010 although with some seasonal variation. Supply swings resulting from climatic conditions or holidays will influence prices for short periods. p. 24

Fishmeal production continues to decline Peruvian fishmeal production was relatively stable in 2009, although Chile reported substantial declines in fishmeal outputs. Scandinavian

countries, too, had lower catches of species destined for fishmeal production. p. 29

Fish oil prices move up againWorld fish oil production is declining despite higher Peruvian production. Prices increased in the course of 2009, but without reaching the peaks of mid 2008. Demand for

fish oil is strong on the world market, and further price increases are likely in coming months. p. 30

Issue 1/2010

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Bibliographic reference:

GLOBEFISH Highlights

2010

FAO/GLOBEFISH Highlights

(1/2010): p. 30

A quarterly update based on the GLOBEFISH databank

1GLOBEFISH Highlights January 2010

Crisis seems to be over for shrimp industry

During 2009 the strong yen has made shrimp imports and landing prices cheaper in the Japanese market. The EU market took advantage of the low shrimp prices experi-enced in 2009, and overall imports were stable. The US shrimp market collapsed in the third quarter of 2009, a late reaction to the economic crisis. For the opening months of 2010, some price increases are forecast, as some major producing countries have supply problems.

SHRIMP

Climate change and the economic crisis impact shrimp production

Thai shrimp production is estimated to have reached about 540 000 tonnes in 2009, an increase of 9% compared with 2008, while total exports of shrimp in the first ten months of 2009 grew 8% in terms of value. This contrasts with the announcements made at the beginning of 2009 that the Thai shrimp sector would cut its production by 20% to 396 000 tonnes, in order to cope the international crisis. However, Thai shrimp exporters managed to gain market share in the US benefitting from the supply problems suffered by Indonesia, the US second supplier. According to the Thai Shrimp Association, the forecast for 2010 is for a similar level of production, although national authorities are aiming for a 5% growth rate.

80/120 sizes. Current supplies of farmed shrimp are very low in the southern and eastern aquaculture areas. The mandatory farm registration with MPEDA (Marine Product Export Development Authority of India) is effective from December for all brackish water shrimp aquaculture (black tiger and vannamei) operations. Export processors are allowed to buy raw materials from registered farms only.

Shrimp supply in Indonesia was badly affected by disease in 2009. Conflicts between farmers and exporters also added to Indonesia’s supply problems. Total shrimp culture production fell from 230 000 tonnes to 180 000 tonnes. Initially the government allowed imports of vannamei (raw material) in order to enable exporters to fulfil their orders, but, as a result of protests by farmers, this was banned in December 2009, and the government gave its support to increasing local production of shrimp, including intensive vannamei farming. The Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries is encouraging the use of locally produced vannamei broodstock as a means of combating the diseases which affect imported broodstock.

ImportsShrimp (frozen raw): Japan

.............Jan-Dec............... .........Jan-Sep.......

2006 2007 2008 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)Viet Nam 51.1 40.0 42.2 29.3 26.1

Indonesia 43.7 37.1 37.4 28.4 25.8

Thailand 20.1 26.4 24.9 18.2 23.4

India 28.5 27.0 24.0 16.6 17.1

China 22.8 24.0 16.8 11.7 9.6

Canada 8.7 7.6 7.7 6.2 6.1

Russia 9.5 8.9 7.8 6.0 5.2

Greenland 6.8 5.4 5.6 4.0 5.2

Myanmar na na 6.8 4.9 5.1

Malaysia 3.1 4.2 4.5 3.3 3.7

Philippines 5.3 4.3 3.5 2.5 2.7

Bangladesh na na 3.1 2.1 1.8

Others 30.4 22.4 12.3 7.4 8.0

Total 230.0 207.3 196.6 140.6 139.8Source: GLOBEFISH AN 10127

Shrimp aquaculture productionCountry 2005 2006 2006 2007 2008 2009*

(1000 tonnes)China 750.0 820.0 820.0 850.0 900.0 915.0

Thailand 418.0 498.0 498.0 520.0 490.0 540.0

Viet Nam 300.0 330.0 330.0 350.0 360.0 300.0

Indonesia 300.0 345.0 345.0 350.0 360.0 310.0

India 170.0 180.0 180.0 195.0 195.0 200.0

Others 475.7 545.4 545.4 554.3 566.8 538.8

Total 2413.7 2718.4 2718.4 2819.3 2871.8 2803.8Source: GLOBEFISH AN 010025, * estimates

Packers in southern Viet Nam faced a serious raw material shortage during the fourth quarter of 2009 as farming in the Mekong Delta fell by 30% compared with 2008. Raw material prices increased by 10-15% and many packers operated 30-50% below their production capacity. November-March is the low season for farmed shrimp in Viet Nam, with the new season only commencing in April. For many farmers, the supply outlook is still bleak because of lack of access to finance. However, the industry forecast predicts a better supply situation in 2010.

Shrimp farms in the southern state of Andhra (India) were seriously affected by heavy rains in late November 2009 and premature harvests collected mostly 31/40 to

2 GLOBEFISH Highlights January 2010

SHRIMP

Good demand in Japan

Compared with the same period last year Japanese household consumption of shrimp during January-August increased by 8.3% to 1 309 grams - 100 grams more than the same period during the previous year. Promotional campaigns by supermarkets for black tiger shrimp were effective during the spring and summer festival seasons and retail prices were much lower as a result of the strong yen appreciation against the US dollar. Increased consumption of black tiger shrimp showed that the Japanese prefer black tiger shrimp to farmed vannamei, particularly when it is affordable to average consumers.

Good business was reported during the 2009 year-end festival sales. Compared with headless products, demand was strong for head-on shrimp which are used for New Year celebrations and traditional family dinners at home. However, consumers avoided high quality seafood products and opted for the medium grade seafood

including shrimp, which is a sign of conservative spending in the recession hit economy.

In contrast, demand for shrimp in the restaurant business remained dull for the whole of 2009. As a result, demand for value added shrimp products did not recover much in 2009. Demand for sushi ebi from the restaurant market segment was 5-10 % lower than 2008. The catering trade also remained weak on the whole in 2009.

Overall shrimp imports increased marginally, supported by the strong yen, lower landing costs in Japan, reduced retail prices and improved demand from households. Restaurant business remained highly seasonal; the period of brisk demand was also short in the catering trade compared with the other years. In the first nine months of 2009, some 189 000 tonnes were imported in line with 2008 and 2007 imports.

Both major exporters of shrimp to the Japanese market - Indonesia and Viet Nam - reported lower exports of shrimp in the first nine months of 2009. Supplies improved from India and Myanmar, as these were mostly the preferred black tiger shrimp. Thailand exported more vannamei shrimp to Japan with the major share of these exports being semi-processed products.

Thai shrimp dominates US market

In the third quarter of 2009 the US economy showed a 2.2% increase in its Gross Domestic Product, a sign of recovery. Another positive sign was a modest increase of real disposable personal income and a recovery of consumer spending. Overall shrimp consumption showed

Wholesale pricesShrimp*: Japan, USA

Source: INFOFISH Trade News; GLOBEFISH AN 10205, 10206* Black tiger, headless, shell-on, 16-20 count. origin: Indonesia

Wholesale pricesShrimp*: Japan

Source: INFOFISH Trade News; GLOBEFISH AN 10226* Frozen, headless, shell-on, 16-20 count

ImportsShrimp: USA

.................................Jan-Sep...................................

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)Thailand 83.9 111.3 130.7 132.6 126.7 130.5

Indonesia 31.8 38.6 46.0 44.3 66.6 55.6

Ecuador 29.6 38.1 45.5 46.5 44.7 47.1

China 40.6 28.9 45.5 34.5 37.0 30.0

Vietnam 26.7 28.0 25.4 27.7 29.7 29.8

Mexico 10.6 8.9 10.7 17.0 12.6 21.2

India 30.1 26.7 20.7 15.8 10.9 15.2

Malaysia 6.4 9.0 11.9 13.0 18.6 12.2

Bangladesh 12.8 11.6 14.2 12.3 10.9 8.3

Guyana 7.6 7.3 6.9 8.0 7.7 7.7

Peru 2.3 3.3 4.2 5.4 6.0 6.9

Honduras 8.2 6.9 4.9 5.0 3.5 4.5

Others 56.1 43.3 36.9 30.9 22.9 20.2

Total 346.6 362.0 403.3 393.2 397.7 389.0Source: NMFS

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10

US$/kg

31/40

16/20

3

4

5

6

7

8


USD/lb

Gulf brown, New York

Indian white, Tokyo


SHRIMP

a slight increase. According to consumer surveys, consumers are increasingly looking for good deals and taking advantage of lower prices and promotions. Restaurants, the main marketing channel, are promoting affordable menus including seafood usually considered “luxurious”, such as lobster and shrimp, in order to push sales. The slowdown in consumption finally hit shrimp imports, which will probably end 2009 below the levels reached in 2008.

In early November, the Southern Shrimp Alliance (SSA), which represents producers from eight US states, and the Thai Frozen Foods Association (TFFA), announced that they had reached an agreement under which they would file a joint petition to the US Department of Commerce (DOC) for a changed circumstances review on Thai shrimp, in order to revoke antidumping duties. The American Shrimp Processors Association filed an objection to this deal in early January 2010.

In the first nine months of 2009, Thailand was the main supplier of shrimp to the US market, with 130 500 tonnes. The US market accounts for about 50% of total Thai exports of shrimp. The second main supplier was Indonesia, with 55 600 tonnes. Purchases from this country fell significantly (-17%), because of lower output. More than half of total Indonesian sales to the US are peeled frozen shrimp. The gap left by Indonesia’s inability to fulfill demand in the US market was filled mainly by supplies from Thailand, Ecuador, Mexico and India.

Between January and September 2009, total Gulf shrimp landings reached 44 800 tonnes, which represents a 46% growth compared with the same period in 2008. Figures up to November amounted to 56 500 tonnes (+34%), pushing down prices. By early December 2009, Gulf white shrimp prices for most sizes were about 20% lower than in the same period in 2008, while for brown shrimp the fall was about 30%. However, by late December, landings had slowed and prices managed to recover a little.

Denmark loses markets

In recent years, Denmark was able to establish itself as the main supplier of shrimp to the growing Russian market. Denmark imported, processed and re-exported shrimp and shrimp products to this market. However, in 2009, this trend came to an end. Danish exports to the Russian market fell by almost 50%. The main reasons were the economic crisis felt by Russia, and more direct trading of Russian importers with suppliers, mainly Canadian coldwater shrimp suppliers.

Imports of shrimp into the USA between January and September 2009 were 2% lower in terms of volume and 6% lower in terms of value compared with the same period of 2008, totaling 389 000 tonnes worth USD 2 654 million. The third quarter of 2009 was mainly responsible for the decline, while up to June shrimp imports were almost stable at 2008 levels.

ImportsShrimp: USA

...............Jan-Sep...............2008 2009

tonnes 1000 USD tonnes 1000 USD

Peeled frozen 126 441 930 212 132 395 926 583

Other frozen 61 786 460 681 65 270 487 227

Breaded 29 641 146 364 27 570 143 311

Other preparations 970 4 722 864 3 702

Headless shell-on frozen

All sizes 172 938 1 229 006 155 345 1 035 915

< 15 15 176 192 713 13 040 149 061

15/20 13 281 132 535 11 375 103 765

21/25 17 814 150 865 18 372 150 647

26/30 25 021 176 616 25 129 169 740

31/40 31 747 196 652 33 336 197 232

41/50 23 603 136 715 21 827 114 455

51/60 23 739 129 948 16 984 82 342

61/70 13 478 70 368 8 607 40 565

> 70 9 079 42 593 6 675 28 108

Other products 5 930 43 989 7 512 57 886

Total 397 706 2 814 973 388 956 2 654 624Source: NMFS

ImportsShrimp: Denmark

.................................Jan-Sep...................................

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)Greenland 55.6 61.9 63.4 58.1 55.2 53.5

Canada 21.7 22.7 28.3 35.5 22.3 13.0

Faroe Islands 2.4 2.4 2.0 0.4 1.3 2.0

UK 0.6 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.1 1.7

Viet Nam 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.3

Bangladesh 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0

Thailand 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.9

Iceland 2.9 2.3 2.1 1.9 2.7 0.8

Netherlands 1.5 2.7 1.9 3.4 1.8 0.8

Germany 1.7 1.8 0.9 1.4 0.8 0.8

China 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.6 1.3 0.7

Norway 2.2 2.5 1.7 1.2 1.2 0.6

Others 3.5 4.1 3.1 3.1 3.5 2.1

Total 92.6 102.9 107.5 109.8 93.8 79.3

Source: GLOBEFISH


SHRIMP

Danish imports in the first nine months of 2009 were 79 300 tonnes, 20% less than in the same period of 2008. While Greenland’s producers are obliged to sell through Denmark and Royal Greenland, other coldwater shrimp producers are trying different routes. In 2009, Greenland’s exports to Denmark remained stable while Canada exported 42% less. Some of this decline was caused by Canadian producers stopping production in reaction to unacceptably low offer prices by the processing industry. Different trade routes explored by the Canadian producers also contributed to the decline.

Danish shrimp exports were 83 100 tonnes in the January-September 2009 period, also a 20% decline. Apart from the drop in the Russian market, all other markets experienced a more modest decrease of 10%. The demand for shrimp by Russia is likely to improve in 2010, after the end of the economic crisis. However, Denmark will have to compete with many other suppliers.

Bangladesh shrimp producers have consolidated good contacts with German shrimp importers. As a result, German imports of Bangladeshi shrimp more than doubled to reach 5 300 tonnes in the first nine months of 2009. This country is now the number three exporter to Germany, behind Thailand and Viet Nam. India, formerly the top supplier to Germany, has lost its position. Overall, despite the economic crisis, German imports of shrimp expanded in 2009, to reach 41 300 tonnes in the January-September period, 16% more than in the same period of 2008.

All other European markets reported relatively stable shrimp imports, which is surprisingly given the overall economic climate. On balance, the third quarter

ImportsShrimp: Germany

.............Jan-Dec.............. .........Jan-Sep.........

2006 2007 2008 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)Thailand 4.0 8.9 9.3 7.1 8.6

Viet Nam 4.0 5.7 8.1 5.9 6.7

Bangladesh 3.0 3.1 3.5 2.5 5.3

India 5.3 6.4 5.7 4.2 4.6

Netherlands 4.1 5.7 3.9 3.1 3.1

Belgium 2.8 2.6 2.0 1.5 2.1

Denmark 1.5 2.6 2.7 2.1 1.9

UK 3.1 2.5 1.6 1.4 1.6

Greenland na 2.6 2.3 1.7 1.4

Others 12.1 8.7 9.3 6.4 6.5


showed higher imports. The decision of the EU to tighten controls on Indian shrimp seems to have led to a shift of these products away from the EU towards the US market. In the first nine months of 2009, however, Indian shrimp exports to the EU had grown quite substantially. Prices should firm

In the import trade, the strong yen will support occasional purchases for the Japanese market, earmarked for spring sales in April. Considering seasonal harvests will be low until April, and high consumption is expected

ImportsShrimp: Italy

...........................Jan-Sep.........................

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)

Ecuador 10.5 13.6 13.5 14.1 16.3

Spain 2.6 2.9 4.7 2.5 4.3

Argentina 1.1 3.4 7.6 5.1 4.1

India 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.9 3.5

Denmark 4.8 4.9 4.7 4.6 3.5

Netherlands 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.9 2.5

Belgium 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.8 1.9

Vietnam 1.7 2.3 0.1 1.2 1.8

Indonesia 1.1 1.3 0.8 1.2 1.7

Thailand 0.3 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.7

Others 16.1 15.6 14.3 11.2 6.8


ExportsShrimp: Denmark

.................................Jan-Sep...................................

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)Russia 19.4 21.9 19.5 28.4 24.5 14.5

Sweden 10.6 11.3 13.7 14.4 14.0 13.1

UK 8.1 8.9 10.6 10.4 9.5 8.6

China 7.2 10.4 12.4 7.4 6.7 8.4

Norway 7.3 8.3 5.6 7.5 7.2 6.9

Germany 4.7 4.7 5.1 6.2 6.4 4.9

Italy 5.0 6.1 7.2 6.7 6.6 4.0

Netherlands 4.3 7.0 5.4 6.5 4.8 3.6

Greenland 0.0 3.0 2.4 2.5 2.0 3.5

Morocco 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 2.7

France 4.0 4.2 3.5 3.4 2.7 2.1

Others 16.7 18.0 18.8 16.4 16.4 10.9

Total 87.2 103.8 104.2 109.9 102.1 83.1

Source: GLOBEFISH


SHRIMP

during the Chinese New Year (14-15 February), shrimp markets are expected to be firm in the coming months.

Some key issues for the US shrimp market in 2010 will be the availability of products from the main

SHRIMP VOLUME IMPORTED BY EU-27, USA AND JAPAN - JANUARY-SEPTEMBER (IN TONNES)

USA USA USA USA USA USA

EU 25 (extra) EU 25 (extra)EU 25 (extra) EU 25 (extra) EU 25 (extra) EU 25 (extra)

EU 25 (intra)EU 25 (intra)

EU 25 (intra) EU 25 (intra) EU 25 (intra)JAPAN

JAPANJAPAN JAPAN JAPAN JAPAN

EU 25 (intra)

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

800 000

900 000

1 000 000

1 100 000

1 200 000

1 300 000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Tonnes

Comparison to 2008, in %

-2%

1 069 764 1 108 738 1 191 200 1 192 384 1 159 007 1 150 905

0%

0%

ImportsShrimp: France

.......................Jan-Sep.......................

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)Ecuador 5.7 7.6 10.8 15.1 12.2

India 4.9 5.7 6.7 6.7 8.7

Madagascar 6.5 6.5 6.2 6.7 5.7

Brazil 17.0 14.5 11.6 5.9 4.7

Netherlands 5.2 4.8 4.3 4.5 4.7

Colombia 1.8 1.9 2.4 3.6 4.2

Thailand 1.3 2.0 3.2 3.0 4.2

Belgium 3.2 3.7 3.4 3.7 3.2

Venezuela 0.5 1.1 3.0 2.9 3.0

Viet Nam 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.1 2.9

Indonesia 4.9 4.3 3.4 3.0 2.8

Spain 1.6 1.1 1.6 1.2 2.6

Bangladesh 1.1 1.1 1.2 2.3 2.4

Denmark 3.0 2.9 2.3 2.0 2.0

Others 11.5 13.7 12.7 11.6 11.1

Grand Total 70.7 73.4 75.8 75.3 74.4Source: GLOBEFISH

suppliers, given the shortages in Indonesia and Viet Nam. The appreciation of the baht will have an obvious impact on the competitiveness of Thai shrimp exports. However, the elimination of antidumping duties on Thai shrimp will introduce an important change in market conditions.

ImportsShrimp: Spain

......................................Jan-Sep..............................

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)Argentina 17.0 4.8 13.4 25.0 18.5 22.8

China 1.0 16.4 18.9 19.2 19.9 18.0

Ecuador 6.2 9.0 13.4 14.7 19.6 14.3

Colombia 4.2 6.3 5.5 4.8 4.8 4.8

Morocco 4.8 5.4 4.1 5.1 5.2 4.1

Nicaragua 1.1 1.3 2.9 4.4 2.9 4.1

Thailand 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.4 3.1 3.9

Venezuela 1.7 3.1 3.5 3.1 2.5 3.6

Belgium 2.1 1.9 2.4 2.4 3.0 3.4

Netherlands 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.7 2.3 2.8

Mozambique 2.3 3.0 3.6 3.1 3.1 2.5

Cuba 0.8 1.5 2.7 2.6 1.8 2.5

Honduras 2.0 2.7 3.8 4.8 2.7 2.3

Portugal 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.9 1.9

Others 47.6 39.3 36.0 27.9 19.7 17.2

Total 94.7 99.0 115.4 122.4 110.9 108.1Source: GLOBEFISH AN 010150


Recession hits tuna industry

The global recession has had a wide range of effects on the seafood sector generally, and the tuna industry more specifically. From a demand perspective, consumers in the US and Europe are changing their purchasing preferences by focussing on price. On both continents, consumers are substituting seafood products with less expensive sources of protein, such as chicken, or buying less expensive seafood or a smaller amount of the same quality. Price considerations are projected to continue to dominate retail seafood sale choices well into 2010. Seafood retailers have introduced new species and products that are lower priced, including new ranges of frozen and canned seafood, replacing previously marketed higher priced tuna products.

TUNA

Higher tuna prices at the start of the year

Strong demand for tuna products coupled with slower catch rates in the Western and Central Pacific led to an increase in the Bangkok price of tuna raw material from a low of USD 830/tonne during November 2009 to USD 1 070/tonne in January 2010 for main size skipjack. The 10 kg/up yellowfin price in Bangkok also increased to reach USD 1 850/tonne.

In the opening months of 2010, the price of tuna in Ecuador has remained stable at about USD 950/tonne. The price of tuna usually increases sharply in Ecuador during the 4th quarter of each year as a result of the closure of the fishery in the Eastern Tropical Pacific by the Inter American Tropical Tuna Commission. 2009 was an exception. Canners filled their cold storages before the closure, and, since the end of the closed season, landings have been very good. Consequently, the price of tuna is now USD 100/tonne lower in Ecuador than it is in Thailand. This rarely happens as buyers quickly adjust their purchase towards the cheapest product on the global tuna market.

Thai canned tuna exports hit by economic crisis

Imports of tuna raw material into Thailand were strong during the first half of 2009, despite the high import prices and lower exports of canned tuna to some Middle East markets. Taiwan Province of China, the USA, Republic of Korea and Vanuatu were the leading suppliers of skipjack to the Thai market. This species represents about three quarters of total tuna imports into Thailand.

Canned tuna exports from Thailand suffered from a sluggish Middle Eastern market. Total canned tuna exports in the first nine months of 2009 were 380 000 tonnes, 10% below the corresponding 2008 result, which had been a record. Total exports to the Middle Eastern market declined by 25%. The USA continued to be the main importer of Thai canned tuna, reporting stable purchases in 2009. This country alone represents 20%

4.5-7 lbsSource: GLOBEFISH AN 11112

C&F PricesFrozen Skipjack: Thailand and Africa

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500


USD/tonne

Thailand

Africa

ExportsCanned tuna: Thailand

............Jan-Dec............ ............Jan-Sept............

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)USA 103.2 87.7 94.9 59.4 79.3 77.0

Egypt 34.1 25.1 34.6 18.6 32.8 25.9

Libya 27.6 28.8 33.8 18.8 30.8 24.9

Canada 29.7 26.4 28.1 18.8 23.4 24.1

Australia 32.6 33.3 39.7 21.6 32.7 23.5

Japan 26.3 25.7 28.3 16.6 20.9 18.6

UK 19.7 13.4 15.8 11.0 13.0 13.8

Saudi Arabia 20.1 21.2 19.6 14.9 18.5 11.7

South Africa 9.3 9.8 8.4 5.4 7.4 7.4

Germany 18.6 11.7 6.4 8.9 5.9 3.4

Others 238.2 184.5 196.5 117.4 150.4 148.4

Total 559.4 467.6 506.1 314.9 418.8 378.7

Source: GLOBEFISH AN 10080


of total Thai canned tuna exports and most of the Thai industry is closely associated with US canned tuna trade marks.

Slow demand for sashimi tuna in Japan

Consumer demand was slow to pick up during the end-of-year celebrations as the continued economic recession curtailed expenses on non-essential food such as sashimi tuna and shrimp. The real rise in festive season demand was felt only from 10 December 2010 onwards.

Supplies of bluefin tuna increased from local and imported sources, such as the Mediterranean, Mexico and Australia. Price competition was strong between Mexican and Australian bluefin tuna. The latter fetches a lower price because of size and quality factors. This has created some awareness among Australian tuna farmers who feel that they need to add more value to southern bluefin by raising bigger fish in the farms and through improved quality.

To accommodate a constrained consumer budget, Japanese supermarkets have changed to mixed packs, replacing ‘tuna only’ sashimi packs. The retail pack sizes for sashimi tuna have also been reduced to smaller portions for household use. Restaurant business, including sushi chains, remained very disappointing.

Prices of locally caught sashimi grade skipjack increased by 50% in 2009 as a result of lower landings. Fatty skipjack loins gained much popularity in the Japanese retail market as they were cheaper than the other red meat quality tuna, for example yellowfin and bigeye.

During January-September 2009, imports of red meat quality tuna loins (bigeye and yellowfin) into Japan fell behind the same period in 2008. Imports of bluefin tuna fillets and loins, however, were almost equal to 2008’s level.

ImportsFrozen tuna: Japan

............Jan-Dec............ ............Jan-Sept............

2005 2006 2007 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)Yellowfin 123.5 90.3 58.7 45.4 36.0 34.7

Bigeye 101.9 86.3 86.8 65.0 59.8 57.8

Skipjack 52.0 50.5 31.3 18.7 23.0 40.7

S. bluefin 7.2 7.9 8.4 4.5 5.9 30.2

Albacore 6.1 6.2 6.0 2.3 4.9 4.8

N. Bluefin 4.2 5.1 6.3 5.2 4.2 3.9

Total 295 246.3 197.5 141.1 133.6 146.0Source: INFOFISH

ImportsFresh/chilled tuna: Japan

............Jan-Dec............ ............Jan-Sept............

2005 2006 2007 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)Yellowfin 21.4 19.0 16.9 12.7 11.0 11.2

Bigeye 16.8 15.8 14.5 10.8 10.8 11.4

Bluefin 9.9 7.4 5.1 3.1 2.4 3.7

S. bluefin 2.5 1.8 1.2 1.1 1.1 3.3

Albacore 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3

Skipjack 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total 50.9 44.3 38.1 27.9 25.5 29.9Source: National Statistics

Coldstorage holdingsTuna: Japan

Source: INFOFISH Trade News, GLOBEFISH AN 015000

Yellowfin

Bigeye

Albacore

Skipjack

Others

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

1000 tonnes

LandingsTuna: Japan

...............Jan-Dec............... .....Jan-Sept.....

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)

Bluefin Fresh 4.1 2.9 3.4 0.6 0.4

Frozen 1.4 1.6 0.9 2.7 2.2

Albacore Fresh 20.2 26.8 48.7 8.4 14.6

Frozen 15.6 9.6 14.9 28.1 33.5

Bigeye Fresh 9.4 14.8 11.9 15.7 13.2

Frozen 22.3 20.8 20.0 5.9 4.3

Yellowfin Fresh 8.7 8.6 6.4 7.1 5.7

Frozen 30.6 32.2 9.8 9.3 6.8

Skipjack Fresh 95.5 79.0 72.9 174.1 154.4

Frozen 246.5 220.2 224.2 68.0 39.7

Total Fresh 137.8 132.1 143.4 206.0 188.4

Frozen 316.4 284.4 269.8 113.9 86.4

Grand Tot 454.2 416.5 413.2 319.834 274.8Source: MAFF, Japan; * including distant water catches

TUNA


Recession impacts US tuna market

Canned fish is not immune to the effects of the recession. US orders for canned tuna products from the Philippines have slowed significantly; export from the Philippines dropped 12% in the first nine months of 2009. Ecuador’s export of tuna pouches to the US market dropped by 25% in the January to September 2009 period compared with the same period a year earlier.

The declining consumer demand for high-end non-canned tuna products continues to cut back fresh tuna imports in the US market; there was nearly a 9% decline in supplies during January-September 2009 compared with last year. The average import price of fresh chilled dressed bigeye tuna, for example, was firm at USD 7.50-8.00/kg, but the supermarket price for tuna loins and steaks fell from USD 25-35/kg in early 2007 to USD 20-30/kg at the beginning of 2010. Even at this price there are fewer customers in the recession hit US market.

In the high-end sashimi tuna market, the use of cheaper southern bluefin (from Australia) has increased at the cost of the expensive Mediterranean bluefin. Closer proximity to Canada also allowed for more imports of high quality Atlantic bluefin from Canada as demand for this fish slowed down in Japan. In the fillet/loin market, frozen products with longer shelf life, have largely replaced fresh tuna products, particularly in the retail market segment. A real come back for the US non-canned tuna market is very unlikely to happen in near future.

More loin imports for Spanish tuna canneries

Spain has always been the main producer among the European canned tuna producers with a total production of about 220 000 tonnes of canned tuna production. Until very recently, Spain has been utilizing whole tuna for the canning process, which guarantees an excellent quality. At the beginning of the 21st century other European canned tuna producers, such as Italy and France, moved to the use of frozen loins imported from developing countries as raw material for their canned tuna production. The production of frozen loins in developing countries allows for the competitiveness of European processors, as the loin preparation process is the most labour intensive part of the canning process, and the outsourcing to low labour cost countries helps to keep costs down for European canners. Spain, however, tried to continue the use of whole tuna, coming mainly from the Spanish tuna fishing industry. In recent years, though, Spanish canners came to realize that their competitiveness was decreasing and their margins were shrinking. As a result, Spanish canners invested in South and Central American countries, where labour costs are lower than in Spain and where tariffs are zero for frozen tuna loin exports to the EU. Spanish import statistics reflect this radical move, as in the first nine months of 2009, some 59 400 tonnes of frozen loins were imported, 69% more than in the same period of 2008. In the whole of 2009, 20% more was imported.

TUNA

ImportsTuna pouches: USA

............Jan-Dec............ ............Jan-Sept............

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)Thailand 18.6 16.5 19.3 14.3 15.3 17.1

Ecuador 15.6 10.8 13.5 10.0 10.9 8.1

Others 3.8 3.8 5.9 3.5 3.6 4.8

Total 38.0 31.1 38.7 27.8 30.8 30.0Source: NFMS: GLOBEFISH AN 11038

ImportsCanned tuna (excl. pouches): USA

............Jan-Dec............ ............Jan-Sept............

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)Thailand 74.3 66.1 64.7 51.8 49.6 56.6

Philippines 35.2 26.6 25.9 22.9 25.3 22.3

Indonesia 16.4 14.1 13.5 12.7 13.0 11.0

Ecuador 4.4 1.9 0.7 1.6 0.5 1.2

Others 22.2 25.3 27.8 18.6 19.7 19.1


ImportsFresh tuna : USA

............Jan-Dec............ ............Jan-Sept............

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)Albacore 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.6

Yellowfin 17.8 18.0 15.9 14.2 12.6 11.2

Bigeye 4.9 5.6 5.5 4.2 4.4 4.2

Bluefin 1.1 1.1 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.3

Skipjack 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Others 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1

Total 25.2 25.7 22.7 20.2 18.1 16.4Source: NMFS

ImportsTuna loins: USA

............Jan-Dec............ ............Jan-Sept............

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)Thailand 12.5 7.8 14.9 5.7 11.2 7.0

Fiji 12.4 11.0 10.7 7.8 7.4 9.3

Trin & Tob 12.3 10.5 9.7 8.3 7.9 7.5

Ecuador 4.0 1.2 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.0

Others 9.9 13.3 9.0 9.6 6.7 10.5



Ecuador continues to be the main supplier of frozen tuna loins to the Spanish market, reporting a 36% increase in the Jan-Sept 2009 period. El Salvador and Guatemala, where the two major Spanish canned tuna producers have established their loining plants, also reported impressive growth. However, the most important modification is the sharp rise in frozen tuna imports from Thailand. This country is now the number three supplier of frozen tuna to the Spanish market, and reported an 88% growth. For many years, the Spanish canning industry resisted the presence of both Thai canned tuna and tuna loins in the EU market, but recently there have been some advantageous business contacts between the two countries, and the main problems seem to have been resolved. Thailand also has a duty free quota for tuna loin exports.

The economic crisis, which was severely felt in Spain, also had an impact on the Spanish canners decision to opt for a cheaper product. Keeping up quality was not paying dividends in this climate of uncertainty, as Spanish consumers favoured supermarket brands over the traditional trade marks.

The UK and Germany are very price sensitive markets. Traders had increased their stock in 2008 when canned tuna prices were particularly low and therefore they could avoid further imports in 2009, when canned tuna prices were higher. In contrast, France and Italy reported stable canned tuna imports in 2009.

TUNA

ImportsTuna loins: Spain

............Jan-Dec............ ............Jan-Sept............

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)Ecuador 16.0 13.2 22.4 10.7 17.6 23.9

El Salvador 10.9 14.8 12.4 11.4 9.1 12.0

Thailand 0.0 2.9 3.5 2.9 3.5 6.6

Guatemala 2.2 0.0 1.5 1.4 1.0 4.8

Portugal 1.4 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.6 0.9

Colombia 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.4

Costa Rica 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Venezuela 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Others 6.7 5.3 4.7 4.8 3.4 10.7

Total 37.5 38.5 46.2 31.6 35.2 59.4Source: GLOBEFISH

ImportsCanned tuna: Germany

............Jan-Dec............ ............Jan-Sept............

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)Ecuador 15.8 21.2 28.6 14.2 19.7 11.1

Philippines 23.4 24.1 18.5 19.8 13.8 15.7

Thailand 18.1 11.9 8.2 10.9 6.3 2.9

Indonesia 6.0 8.1 6.8 6.8 5.2 6.1

Papua NG 4.4 5.7 6.1 5.1 1.1 4.6

Seychelles 6.7 2.1 4.4 1.1 4.0 0.8

France 2.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.4

Others 10.2 10.9 7.0 5.9 5.2 9.1


ImportsCanned tuna: France

............Jan-Dec............ ............Jan-Sept............

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)C. d’Ivoire 23.1 27.0 22.0 23.8 23.8 17.0

Spain 22.0 19.9 14.2 16.8 15.2 15.0

Madagascar 15.4 10.9 5.6 8.9 6.8 6.6

Seychelles 14.7 13.6 11.7 10.1 10.3 9.4

Italy 8.9 3.5 2.3 3.0 2.3 0.3

Senegal 1.1 1.7 0.9 1.4 0.7 1.5

Others 35.2 29.7 27.1 25.5 22.4 32.6


ImportsCanned tuna: Italy

............Jan-Dec............ ............Jan-Sept............

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)Spain 36.7 39.7 39.6 34.1 32.7 30.9

Cote d’Ivoire 9.1 10.0 9.1 7.8 8.7 8.1

Colombia 5.0 6.6 10.5 5.5 6.6 7.5

France 3.4 5.3 5.0 4.6 3.6 4.8

Seychelles 6.9 3.9 5.5 2.7 4.4 4.4

Portugal 2.6 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.3

Others 5.8 9.0 12.0 6.9 9.6 10.9


ImportsCanned tuna: UK

............Jan-Dec............ ............Jan-Sept............

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)Mauritius 25.9 27.8 27.2 19.0 18.4 15.4

Seychelles 32.0 23.9 16.7 19.0 18.4 14.0

Ghana 17.0 18.4 22.7 13.3 16.8 13.7

Philippines 10.0 13.0 19.2 9.9 15.6 13.6

Thailand 16.9 14.9 14.6 13.0 11.2 13.5

Ecuador 6.8 7.8 18.9 5.7 13.7 5.7

France 1.7 3.0 4.0 2.6 3.4 2.1

Maldives 1.9 2.2 1.0 1.9 0.8 1.0

Indonesia 0.9 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.5

Others 15.5 17.8 18.4 12.9 4.2 7.0



C&F pricesTuna loins: Italy

Source: GLOBEFISH AN 11114

C&F pricesCanned tuna*: USA, Europe

* 48x6.5 oz Europe, 48x6 oz USA, chunk, origin Thailand Source: GLOBEFISH AN 11101, 11102

Prices likely to stabilize at high levels

Tuna catches are expected to stay relatively low in coming months, which should result in higher tuna prices on the world market. Consequently, canned tuna prices will go up in the near future. Demand for sashimi tuna will continue the past year’s trend, which is strong demand for sashimi products sold in supermarkets to be consumed at home. This tuna is generally at the lower end of the quality scale, while demand for high priced sashimi tuna will remain sluggish.

The sashimi market is likely to be impacted by the decision of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) on bluefin tuna that will be taken at the Fifteenth Meeting of the Conference of the Parties of CITES in Doha (Qatar), 13-25 March 2010. In December 2009, a majority of the FAO Ad Hoc Expert Advisory Panel considered that the available data does support the proposal to include Atlantic bluefin in CITES Appendix I, although consensus was not reached. Further, there was consensus among panel members that the evidence available does support the inclusion of Atlantic bluefin in Appendix II, which. lists species that are not necessarily now threatened with extinction but that may become so unless trade is closely controlled. International trade in specimens of Appendix-II species may be authorized by the granting of an export permit or re-export certificate. Permits or certificates should only be granted if the relevant authorities are satisfied that certain conditions are met, above all that trade will not be detrimental to the survival of the species in the wild. An Appendix I listing would prevent all commercial trade in Atlantic bluefin.

Independent of the decision of CITES on bluefin tuna, catch quotas for both Northern and Southern bluefin have been reduced for the 2010 catching period. The Southern bluefin catch quota was cut by 20% to roughly 10 000 tonnes, while the Northern catch quota was reduced by a notable 38.5%. High quality bluefin tuna will thus be in very short supply in the world market in 2010.

The EU legislation to prevent, deter and eliminate Illegal, Unregulated and Unreported (IUU) fishing will have an important impact on the world tuna fisheries. Under the IUU regulation, all seafood export shipments to the EU must clearly show the origin of the products, including the sea area where the fish are caught and the names of the fishing boats. Otherwise, they will be refused entry. This law was implemented on 1 January 2010. Tuna fisheries are probably better prepared than other fishing industries for this important regulatory tool. However, tuna fisheries are also one of the fisheries most subject to IUU fishing in the past.

ImportsTuna loins: Italy

............Jan-Dec............ ............Jan-Sept............

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)Ecuador 14.6 11.9 11.7 5.8 4.4 11.0

Thailand 3.2 4.4 2.3 11.0 8.8 8.4

Colombia 9.7 7.0 5.4 7.2 4.3 1.2

Kenya 6.7 7.9 4.8 4.1 2.2 1.2

Spain 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

Others 8.5 8.0 12.5 7.0 9.3 8.5


0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10

USD/carton

USA

Europe

1. Link to the preliminary summary of the panel’s findings: http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/user_upload/newsroom/docs/panel_preliminary_summary.pdf

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00


EUR/kgEUR/kg

Yellowfin

Skipjack

1

TUNA


GROUNDFISH

Lower groundfish prices in all major markets

In 2009 a number of groundfish resources showed good signs of recovery, after several rather bleak years. The one major exception to this trend was the Alaskan groundfish fishery. Good supply to all major markets, combined with the current economic crisis, led to declining prices. In the present year even better groundfish catches are expected, and prices are not likely to increase in coming months.

New quota regulations in Argentina

After four years of decreasing catches, Argentinean landings of hubbsi hake showed a slight increase. In 2009, this species accounted for 75% of total landings of hake, while hoki’s share was 24% and Southern hake accounted for the remaining 1%. In 2009, landings of hoki showed a 20.5% reduction in total landings. At the start of the season, national authorities imposed a significant quota cut on hubbsi, in view of the fragile state of the resource.

In December 2009, the Federal Fishing Council announced the quotas for 2010. For hubbsi, the total allowable catch for 2010 will be 338 000 tonnes, divided into 290 000 tonnes for the Southern stock and 48 000 tonnes for the Northern stock. This represents a significant increase compared with the TAC for 2009 (+72 000 tonnes, + 25%). In addition, in the first half of the year, vessels will be able to capture up to 60% of the total annual quota. On the Northern stock, some special management measures were also set. Vessels will not be allowed more than four trips per year, and will not be allowed to produce more than 5 000 cases of hake per trip. For hoki, the TAC for 2010 was set at 170 000 tonnes.

Total exports of hake by Argentina between January and September were 107 455 tonnes worth USD 254.6 million. This represents a 38% increase in total volume and a 14% growth in total value. The unit value of Argentinean exports of hake dropped by 17%, indicating that hake, like other groundfish species, has been negatively affected by

the current worldwide economic downturn.

Between January and September, hubbsi accounted for 79% of total volume of exports, while in terms of value the share was 83%. The main buyer of hubbsi products in quantity terms was Brazil (37%), followed by the USA (11%), Spain (10%) and Italy (10%).

Higher US groundfish imports

Groundfish imports into the US market showed an increase (4% from 102 100 tonnes to 106 400 tonnes) in the first nine months of 2009 compared with the same period of 2008, but have not yet recovered to January-September 2007 levels (112 600 tonnes). The 2009 rise reflects increased imports by the USA not only of frozen fillets but in particular an increase in imports of blocks. More specifically during this period, the quantity of frozen groundfish fillets imported by the US was 70 900, only 1% more compared with the same period of the previous year whereas imports of blocks went up by 11%, reaching 35

ImportsCod-like groundfish: USA

..........Jan-Dec.......... ..........Jan-Sept..........

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

( 1 000 tonnes)

FilletsChina 91.3 74.5 71.6 56.9 54.4 56.8

Iceland 16 11.1 7.9 8.7 5.8 6.4

Canada 9.7 5.5 4.2 3.6 3.3 3.3

Norway 2.1 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.7

Others 9.0 6.4 5.5 6.0 6.1 3.7

Total 128.1 97.7 90.0 76.2 70.2 70.9

Blocks/SlabsChina 25.4 41.7 35.2 31.1 27.1 29.5

Russian Fed. 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.3 2.1 2.4

Iceland 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.6 0.9

Argentina 2.9 2.0 2.3 1.7 0.4 0.9

Canada 0.5 2.1 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.4

Norway 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4

Others 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.0

Total 32.4 49.2 42.0 36.4 31.9 35.5Gr. Total 160.5 146.9 132.0 112.6 102.1 106.4Source: NMFS

C&F pricesGroundfish blocks: USA

Source: GLOBEFISH AN 010805, 010806, 010834

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09

USD/lb

Cod

Alaska pollack

Hake


500 tonnes. China is the main supplier of both fillets and blocks to the USA with 67% and 33% of total imports during January-September 2009. This country has increased its shipments to the US by 4% (fillets) and 9% (blocks) during this period. China is an important re-processor of Alaska pollock caught by the US and Russian fleets.

The cod market, where prices had been in free fall from December 2008, seems to have stabilized at a low level. Prices were quoted at USD 2.50/lb in January 2010. The price of hake fillets, which followed the same trend as cod until October 2009 (USD 2.20/lb), dropped suddenly in November to USD 1.90/lb and then to USD 1.85/lb in January 2010. This was the result of increased supply from Chile and Argentina.

The price of Alaska pollack, which declined between January and June 2009 from USD 2.00/lb to USD 1.93/lb also experienced a further drop reaching USD 1.85/lb. In the current difficult economic climate, there is also some good news for Alaskan fishermen. Alaska pollock has earned some of the highest scores in the MSC program during its recertification review. The evaluation of the fishery was conducted as part of the five-year recertification of Alaska pollock under the MSC sustainability program, and was also issued for public comment. The certifiers reaffirmed that Alaska pollock continues to be responsibly managed when measured against the rigorous MSC sustainability standard. They endorsed the certification so that Alaska pollock products are still eligible to carry the MSC eco-label. Alaska pollock is widely consumed in the USA in fish sticks, fish sandwiches, fish and chips and in surimi products. Alaska pollock is also one of the most significant US fishery exports, with sustainability and quality top priorities for Alaska pollock consumers in the EU, UK and Japan. Last year, production and supply of surimi remained at a low level across the board, leading to further contraction in this market. However, some market sources indicate that the surimi product market in Japan has reached the bottom.

In 2009 surimi production in Japan’s Hokkaido region fell 33% to October 2009 as the industry continues to

GROUNDFISH

stagnate as a result of the economic crisis. Output in the region fell to 24 500 tonnes (from 36 400 tonnes) between January and October, according to data from the National Surimi Manufacturers Association. Total quantities of surimi and pollock imported to September 2009 also fell, with pollock dropping 35% and golden threadfin bream surimi 30%. Evidence of falling demand was underlined by higher inventory amounts for the period, up by 12 % on the previous year to 44 700 tonnes. Uncertainty will persist around surimi supply both in Japan and overseas mainly because of the protracted economic recession.

In 2009, supply of surimi from major sources saw a substantial decline. Production and supply of US surimi decreased as a result of the record low level of the pollock catch quota. As far as Japan is concerned, surimi product output in 2009 was at its lowest level in recent years. For 2010, analysts foresee that the low level of surimi supply will continue because the US DAP pollock quota is still at a low level and there is a widening price gap between pollock surimi and fillet.

Lower Alaska pollock catches led to lower imports into EU

In the European groundfish market, German imports

of Alaska pollock fillets, showed a drop of 20% to 108 100

ImportsFrozen cod fillets: Germany

..........Jan-Dec.......... ..........Jan-Sept..........

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

( 1 000 tonnes)China 8.1 12.2 12.1 9.2 10.0 6.0

Poland 1.4 3.8 2.2 3.1 1.8 1.2

Denmark 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.1 1.4 1.2

Russia 2.4 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.5

Norway 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1

Iceland 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0

Others 1.8 2.7 2.1 2.2 1.6 1.4

Total 16.0 22.2 19.7 17.2 16.1 10.4Source: Statistisches Bundesamt

ImportsFrozen Alaska pollock fillets: France

..........Jan-Dec.......... ..........Jan-Sept..........

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

( 1 000 tonnes)China 18.6 18.6 21.7 13.9 16.9 17.5

Russian Fed. 4.3 4.0 7.1 7.4 6.0 4.6

USA 10.8 10.3 7.9 3.4 6.1 4.5

Germany 6.3 4.4 4.2 3.5 3.3 1.8

Others 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.8

Total 40.8 38.0 41.5 28.6 32.6 29.2Source: National Trade Statistics

ImportsFrozen hake fillets: Germany

..........Jan-Dec.......... ..........Jan-Sept..........

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

( 1 000 tonnes)USA 4.4 6.1 6.3 5.3 5.4 5.1

Peru 4.1 4.1 3.7 3.9 2.5 2.8

Argentina 6.9 6.1 3.5 3.0 3.0 2.7

Chile 2.2 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.4 0.3

Russian Fed. 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Others 6.6 4.5 5.6 4.0 3.5 4.3



GROUNDFISH

Italian frozen hake imports were 36 800 tonnes in the first nine months of 2009, a strong increase compared with the same period of both 2008 (+61%) and 2007 (+63%). All the main suppliers of hake to Italy contributed to the growth in Italian hake imports: Argentina, the main supplier (40% of total exports) increased its shipments by 87% to 14 800 tonnes, South Africa (17% of total exports) by 94%, and Uruguay (16% of total exports) by 100%.

The price of hake fillet of Chilean origin on the European market dropped somewhat in the last few months of 2009. Deepskinned, interleaved fillets, PBO fell from USD 3.80/kg to USD 3.70/kg and fillet interleaved, PBI dropped from USD 3.50/kg to USD 3.40/kg. This decline reflects the increased supply of hake to the European market.

Even more groundfish this year

The recovery of whitefish resources, a trend that began in 2009, will continue in 2010. Two key factors are involved: the recovery of the cod and haddock resources, and the continued growth of primary whitefish aquaculture species such as tilapia, pangasius and other catfish. It has been suggested that in 2010 global whitefish supplies could increase by 18% compared with 2007. This would add 817 000 tonnes to global whitefish supplies, the equivalent of an entirely new Alaska pollock fishery. Meanwhile, Alaska pollock volumes will remain stable, as increases in Russia will offset the declines in Alaska. In 2010 Alaska pollock catches in the USA are estimated at 800 000 tonnes, while for Russia the estimate is 1.65 million tonnes. Thus, the total for the world Alaska pollack fisheries in 2010 will only be 50 000 tonnes below the 2007 figure.

The importance of the current overall increase in whitefish supply is that it is happening at a time when global production of salmon is stagnant. The growth in wild harvests of cod and other groundfish is likely to continue for several more years, with the likelihood of a return to higher whitefish consumption. Nevertheless, prices are expected to stay low in coming months, as demand has not yet improved in the main consuming countries.

tonnes in its imports during the January-September 2009 period compared with the same period of 2008. As in the USA, China was the main exporter (60% of total) of Alaska pollock fillets to Germany, supplying 4% less compared with 2008 and 15% below 2007. The USA, the second main supplier to Germany, decreased its exports even more significantly by 51%, from January to September 2009 compared with the same months of 2008.

Alaska pollock fillets imported by France dropped to 29 200 tonnes (-10 %) compared with the same months of 2008. China, the main supplier, shipped 4% less of this product to France but lower shipments by other suppliers, such as the USA (-26%), Germany (-45%) and the Russian Federation (-23%) further contributed to the drop.

McDonald’s Europe is using haddock to replace Alaska pollock as one of the key raw materials for its Filet-0-Fish. With the 18.5% cut in the Alaska pollock quota to 815 000 tonnes at the start of this year, McDonald’s made a decision to reduce the quantities of pollock used in Europe because of the species’ importance to its US operation, as a part of their sustainable sourcing policy

Imports of frozen cod fillets into Germany dropped by 35% during January-September 2009 to 10 400 tonnes, not only because of the decline in Chinese exports (-40% to 6 000 tonnes) but also because of reduced shipments from Poland and Denmark. The decline in cod imports is surprising, as prices were very competitive in 2009. As far as cod fillet block prices in the German market are concerned, after the drop recorded in June 2009 (from USD 4.60/kg to USD 4.35/kg), December 2009 brought a recovery. The price reached USD 4.50/kg.

During the first nine months of 2009, the UK imported 54 200 tonnes of frozen cod, 21% below the corresponding 2008 figure and 13% below the 2007 quantity. The main reason for this decline was the drop in imports from various suppliers, in particular the Russian Federation (-43%) and Denmark (-35%). Iceland, the main exporter supplying 25% of the total, showed very strong growth, increasing shipments by 263% to 13 800 tonnes. However, this was not sufficient to move the overall trend in UK frozen cod imports in 2009 into positive territory. The outstanding increase in Icelandic exports of cod can be explained by measures taken by the Icelandic government to try to avoid bankruptcy by increasing the cod quota in hopes of an increase in the value of exports.

Positive developments took place in the German market with regard to frozen hake fillet imports, which increased by 4% to 15 200 tonnes, compared with 2008 although not yet back to 2007 levels (17 900 tonnes). The USA was the main exporter with 34% of total, along with Argentina, the two countries decreased their exports of this product to Germany (-6% and -10% respectively). However Peru (+12%) accounted for the increase in total hake fillet imports.

ImportsFrozen Alaska pollock fillets: Germany

..........Jan-Dec.......... ..........Jan-Sept..........

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

( 1 000 tonnes)China 88.0 78.5 89.7 56.7 68.1 65.2

USA 39.4 55.2 53.4 39.8 40.8 20.0

Russian.F. 27.6 25.4 28.9 18.1 23.5 18.2

Others 6.1 5.3 4.9 4.1 3.5 4.7



CEPHALOPODS

Limited squid supply, but price increases did not followSquid catches were low in the South West Atlantic and in Peruvian waters in 2009. Supply to the world market was about 300 000 tonnes lower than in 2008, but prices did not go up as expected. The main reason was the bleak economic climate, especially in Spain. On the contrary, octopus was in good supply, which resulted in a sharp downturn of prices. It is difficult to forecast the performance of the world squid market for the coming months, as the squid season in the South West Atlantic will open only in two months time. Some upward adjustments in octopus prices are likely, as catches are extremely low at the moment.

Difficult situation for Peruvian squid

Peruvian giant squid landings declined sharply in 2009. In the first nine months, only 300 000 tonnes were landed, 92 000 tonnes less than in the corresponding period of 2010. As a result, supply from Peru became tight in the closing months of the year, and offers to the US and the European market faded away. Exports of squid from Peru to the US and Italian markets declined by 18%, while exports to Spain, the main market for giant squid from Peru, reported a 22% drop in imports. The performance of Peru in the Japanese market was somewhat stronger, as the higher Yen made this market very attractive for exporters.

At present, there is no production in the South West Atlantic, as the season is only expected to open in mid March. It is thus too early to give any forecast for this year; the hope is that catches will return to 2008 levels, after the disastrous 2009 season. The low abundance of squid in this fishing area affected the world squid market. Imports into the three major world squid markets – Japan, Spain and Italy - all declined sharply in 2009. However, these limited supplies did not result in significantly

Exports (quantity)Argentina: Squid

.....Jan-Dec..... .....Jan-Sept.....

2007 2008 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)

Spain 58.4 61.2 59.6 20.3

China 37.6 66.8 64.2 10.7

Italy 11.5 9.3 8.9 4.2

Japan 10.7 6.2 6.1 2.6

Brazil 2.3 2.4 2.0 3.0

Korea, Rep. 4.4 4.0 3.4 1.9

Others 24.3 25.5 24.4 23.6

Total 149.2 175.3 168.6 66.3Source: SAGPyA

higher prices, as demand was impacted by the adverse economic climate.

Japanese squid imports were 44 500 tonnes in the first nine months of 2009, a 10% decline from the corresponding 2008 period. All major exporters reported lower shipments, but China and Peru were able to maintain their top positions. Argentinean squid export declined by 45% and the country is now only the number five supplier to the Japanese market. Thailand was the only major squid producer reporting higher exports to the Japanese market in 2009. The country exported 4 800 tonnes in the first nine months of 2009, 26% more than in the same period of 2008. Prices of squid have increased in the Japanese market since mid 2009, and are now at their highest level since August 2008. This is a relatively unusual movement of squid prices, which normally decline in the second half of the year, when local squid becomes available in the market. Higher squid prices are likely in the Japanese market in coming months, as coldstorage holdings are very low at the moment.

Exports (value)Illex Squid: Argentina

.....Jan-Dec..... .....Jan-Sept.....

2008 2008 2009

1000 USD

Spain 65 001 62 711 29 171

China 47 020 45 387 8 306

Italy 7 900 7 539 4 853

Brazil 3 641 2 821 4 753

Japan 5 893 5 779 2 359

South Korea 2 669 2 669 1 841

Venezuela 2 814 1 963 1 276

Colombia 837 741 810

Thailand 1 008 780 639

South Africa 116 116 629

Others 18 259 15 550 5 157

Total 155 157 146 056 59 795

Source: SAGPyA


CEPHALOPODS

Spain imported 77 800 tonnes of frozen squid in the first nine months of the year, a 22% decline from the same period of 2008. Countries catching in the South West Atlantic reported steep falls in exports to the Spanish market, and importers have replaced them with higher imports from India and China. However, the overall gloomy economic climate had its impact on the Spanish squid market and demand was rather slow. As a result, prices did not go up as much as expected in spite of limited squid landings.

Italy was no exception to the overall downward trend in the world squid market. Imports declined by 8%, with imports from Argentina declining by more than 50%. The impact of the economic crisis was felt particularly by the Italian restaurant sector, leading to lower demand for squid products from this segment. The supermarket range of squid products (breaded squid rings, frozen baby squids, etc) remained relatively stable.

ImportsSquid: Japan

.............Jan-Dec............ .............Jan-Sept............

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)China 28.9 30.2 26.1 21.4 18.1 17.0

Peru 4.8 7.8 12.8 6.7 9.5 8.9

Thailand 7.6 8.1 7.1 2.8 3.8 4.8

Viet Nam 7.0 6.8 5.5 5.8 5.0 4.2

Argentina 5.6 10.4 6.3 9.3 5.4 3.0

USA 4.6 5.4 3.9 5.0 3.9 2.4

New Zealand 1.4 3.3 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.4

India 1.9 1.0 1.2 3.1 0.7 0.9

Korea Rep. 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.6

Morocco 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.4

Taiwan PC 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0

Others 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.1 2.2

Total 65.9 77.1 67.8 58.1 49.7 44.5Source: GLOBEFISH AN 10437, *) included under others

ImportsSquid: Spain

.............Jan-Dec............ .............Jan-Sept............

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)Argentina 83.6 61.3 54.4 23.3 25.3 23.9

Falkland/Malv. 42.4 40.3 45.6 53.3 40.3 20.1

India 18.2 12.8 15.5 8.6 9.2 10.2

China 8.1 6.4 6.7 4.9 5.2 8.2

South Africa 4.0 3.5 4.5 2.6 3.4 3.0

Morocco 4.5 1.4 3.3 0.9 2.0 2.8

Peru 1.8 4.5 1.2 1.5 2.1 1.6

Korea Rep. 2.5 2.0 2.9 1.6 1.4 0.7

USA 3.9 1.7 2.2 4.1 0.7 0.6

New Zealand 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Others 12.2 11.8 14.0 7.2 9.9 6.5

Total 181.2 145.8 150.4 108 99.6 77.9Source: GLOBEFISH AN 10450

ImportsSquid: Italy

.............Jan-Dec............ .............Jan-Sept............

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)Spain 30.3 25.2 22.1 20.8 19.3 22.0

Thailand 21.2 22.8 23.4 18.4 18.5 17.8

Argentina 8.9 10.7 10.0 9.1 9.3 4.1

S. Africa 5.0 3.7 3.7 3.1 0.6 3.8

India 3.8 2.9 3.5 2.9 2.5 3.1

Peru 3.4 3.4 0.9 2.5 2.3 1.9

New Zealand 2.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0

Others 22.8 32.8 23.2 20.6 18.9 13.5


Striking drop in octopus prices

Octopus supply was strong, with good catches reported from Morocco and Mauritania. Japan took advantage of its strong currency and took substantial quantities of octopus at heavily discounted prices. In the first nine months of 2009 imports went up by 11%. Mauritania almost doubled its exports to the Japanese market and is now the top supplier to this market.

ImportsOctopus: Japan

.............Jan-Dec............ .............Jan-Sept............

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)Mauritania 16.6 14.0 12.6 9.5 9.3 18.1

Morocco 8.7 10.3 10.9 8.2 9.1 9.6

China 8.2 7.2 6.7 4.9 5.5 4.1

Viet Nam 5.5 4.8 5.5 3.5 3.6 2.8

Spain 4.0 1.8 2.7 1.3 1.8 1.5

Thailand 1.9 1.8 1.2 1.5 0.9 1.2

Others 3.5 6.9 5.1 3.3 4.7 1.5



CEPHALOPODS

In contrast, the value of octopus imports declined by 26%, which indicates that prices went down by almost 40%. The main reason for the decline was the hurry in which Mauritanian exporters wanted to sell, especially small sized octopus, which are prohibited in the EU market.

ImportsOctopus: Italy

.............Jan-Dec............ .............Jan-Sept............

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)Morocco 11.7 12.3 14.5 10.5 12.2 13.2

Spain 8.5 6.9 8.2 5.0 6.6 5.9

Mauritania 3.4 2.5 1.4 2.5 3.5 4.9

Senegal 3.7 4.2 3.4 3.3 2.6 3.9

Viet Nam 5.6 3.3 4.5 2.1 3.2 3.3

Thailand 3.4 2.4 2.8 2.0 2.4 2.3

Indonesia * 2.5 4.0 1.8 1.7 2.1

Tunisia 1.9 2.0 0.8 1.3 0.7 0.8

Mexico 2.8 4.6 2.2 2.1 1.0 0.4

Others 10.2 7.4 9.1 5.1 6.5 4.3


ImportsOctopus: Spain

.............Jan-Dec............ .............Jan-Sept............

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)Morocco 20.2 19.6 23.2 16.3 17.8 16.4

Mauritania 4.9 4.9 4.5 3.3 3.0 7.2

China 2.8 1.6 1.8 0.5 1.8 3.0

Viet Nam 1.9 2.2 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.1

Portugal 1.4 1.7 2.2 1.9 1.1 0.8

Senegal 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.6

Others 8.6 8.8 8.7 5.9 5.8 4.0


Bearing in mind the higher octopus catches, Italian and Spanish octopus imports also increased in the first nine months of the year. Italian octopus imports reached 41 100 tonnes, 1% ahead of the corresponding 2008 figure. Spanish octopus imports during this period were 33 100 tonnes, 4% more than one year earlier. In the overall economic climate, octopus prices declined in European countries as well, albeit less than in the Japanese market. The present (January 2010) Spanish octopus price level is about EUR 0.20/kg below that of a year ago.

Squid market unpredictable

As always at this time of the year, all expectations are focussed on the start of the squid season in the South West Atlantic. If catches are good, or at least similar to those of 2008, squid prices are likely to fall somewhat. If squid catches are again disappointing, prices are likely to go up, as coldstorage holdings in all major markets are almost empty.

The new octopus catching season has just started in Morocco and Mauritania, but catches are below expectations, owing to bad weather conditions. Prices are expected to go up, despite limited demand at this time of the year.

Wholesale pricesCuttlefish, squid: Japan

* whole 10 kg/block, 0.4-0.6 kg/pc; ** whole 7.5 kg/block, 21-25 pc/kg;Source: INFOFISH Trade News, GLOBEFISH AN 10501, 09

C&f pricesOctopus: Spain

Source: EPR

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0


US$/kg

Squid **

Cuttlefish *

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

18.00

Jan-

05

Jul-0

5

Jan-

06

Jul-0

6

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

€/kg

T2

T8



Tilapia markets were influenced by the difficult economic situation and by low groundfish prices in all major markets. USA is still the major tilapia importing country, while China and Egypt are the main tilapia consuming countries. US tilapia imports expanded somewhat during 2008, with frozen fillets dominating the market, while all other product forms declined. Traders and producers are expecting higher prices for 2010, although groundfish prices are forecast to stay at their present low levels.

TILAPIA

China main tilapia producer

Tilapia production in China recovered strongly in 2009, after a difficult 2008. Estimates put Chinese tilapia production at around 1 million tonnes. Exports of tilapia from China to the US and the Mexican markets are substantial, while exports to the EU are still slow. However, it is likely that tilapia consumption in the EU will pick soon, once the economic crisis is over.

WWF announced in December 2009 the publication of its first aquaculture standard for tilapia. The standards are the final product of the deliberations of more than 200 participants in the Tilapia Aquaculture Dialogue. The standards will eventually be administered by the Aquaculture Certification Council, which will not be operational until 2011. However, in the interim, the certification for these standards will be handled by GLOBALGAP. GLOBALGAP will offer producers a choice of certifications, and is able to provide certification to BAP standards, WWF standards, or Global Gap standards, depending on the market requirements of the producer.

The purpose of the standards is to address the potential negative impacts of tilapia farming on both communities and the environment. It is hoped that the transparent process and broad involvement of interest groups will lead to the long term acceptance of these standards, and will allow the tilapia industry to grow in accordance with the demands of its customers, for tilapia that is raised in a safe and environmentally friendly way.

Two companies in Honduras, namely Aquafinca Saint Peter Fish and Aqua Corporation de Honduras, have resumed exports of tilapia to the EU, following confirmation by the EU Directorate General for Health and Consumers that they have complied with the requested sanitary conditions. About 25 commercial establishments in Honduras are producing tilapia for the local market and export. The Secretariat of Agriculture and Livestock Production (SAC) through the National Service of Plant and Animal Health (Senasa) joined forces with tilapia exporters to ensure that all health requirements were undertaken. Honduran tilapia producers are actively promoting tilapia in the EU market, but there are several difficulties. Suitable flight connections are not available, and shipping tilapia to the EU in frozen form would mean competing with lower priced frozen freshwater fillets, such as pangasius from Viet Nam or frozen tilapia fillets from China.

Therefore exports of tilapia from Honduras to the EU are limited, with most of the production going to the US market. Various reasons, including the economic crisis in the USA giving rise to sharply reduced fresh tilapia fillet prices and the unstable political situation in Honduras, led to a considerable decline in tilapia exports to the US market in 2009. In the first nine months, Honduras exported 4 900 tonnes of fresh tilapia fillets to the US market, 28% less than in the corresponding period of 2008. Lower fresh tilapia exports from Honduras contributed to a decline in the total trade of fresh tilapia fillets going to the US market, which dropped by 17% to only 18 600 tonnes in the first nine months of 2009. In spite of this, the outlook for 2010 with regard to Honduran tilapia output is positive, and output is expected to grow by 12%. Honduran tilapia producers forecast that demand in the US market will increase this year, and that prices will recover soon.

ExportsTilapia: China

............Jan-Dec............ ...Jan-Sep...

2006 2007 2008 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)USA 104.7 122.0 118.6 79.7 91.6

Mexico 32.9 39.3 36.5 28.1 25.3

Russia 5.5 19.3 17.1 16.3 19.0

Israel 3.7 4.1 4.2 2.9 4.9

Germany 1.7 1.2 1.7 1.1 1.5

Hongkong China 1.7 1.5 0.3 0.2 0.8

Belgium 1.4 1.4 2.3 1.5 1.1

Puerto Rico 1.3 1.3 1.7 0.9 0.8

Dominican Rep. 1.0 1.4 0.5 0.4 0.8

Canada 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.4 1.5

Others 26.9 23.0 40.9 28.9 29.2

Total 181.8 215.2 224.4 160.4 176.5

Source: GLOBEFISH


TILAPIA

The market for frozen tilapia fillets in the USA is growing. In the period January-September 2009, 79 600 tonnes of frozen tilapia fillets were imported, up 16.3% from same period in 2008. Supplies increased by nearly 20% from China and fell by 15% from Indonesia, the second major supplier. All other tilapia products experienced a slow down in 2009.

Tilapia prices experienced a downward trend in 2009, which was caused by the economic crisis, and by low groundfish prices. At the end of the year, the price of fresh tilapia fillets was USD 3.60/lb, 10% less than one year earlier. The price of frozen tilapia fillets decreased by about 15% during the same period. In the last quarter of the year prices remained stable at the present low level. As the economy is expected to pick up in 2010, prices are likely to go up soon, especially for the fresh fillets sector. China is expected to continue supplying the lower priced frozen fillet market with inexpensive tilapia products.

Wholesale pricesTilapia fillets: USA

Source: GLOBEFISH*) fresh: origin South America, **) frozen: origin China

Unit valueTilapia exports: China

Source: elaborated from National Trade Statistics

Less tilapia in 2010?

With the present cold winter in China, tilapia production might experience similar problems to the winter of 2008, when the temperature in the tilapia growing area in the south of the country dropped to unexpectedly low levels. This could create problems for tilapia supply on the world market and initiate an upward price spiral for frozen tilapia products.

ImportsWhole frozen tilapia: USA

...........Jan-Dec.............. ..........Jan-Sept.........

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)China 40.5 32.5 29.0 25.5 23.6 21.0

Taiwan PC 18.3 13.5 15.9 10.1 11.6 10.8

Thailand 0.6 0.2 3.3 0.1 2.8 0.6

Ecuador 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0

Hong Kong 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

Indonesia 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0

Panama 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0

Others 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.4

Total 60.8 46.9 49.6 36.2 39.1 32.8Source: GLOBEFISH, *) included under others

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09

US$/lb

frozen**

fresh*

ImportsTilapia (by product form): USA

...........Jan-Dec........... ..........Jan-Sept.........

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)Whole frozen 60.8 46.9 49.6 36.2 39.1 32.8

Frozen fillets 74.4 100.6 100.6 73.0 66.5 79.6

Fresh fillets 23.1 26.2 29.2 20.0 22.5 18.6


ImportsFresh tilapia fillets: USA

.............Jan-Dec............. ..........Jan-Sept.........

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)Ecuador 10.9 11.9 8.5 9.4 6.6 7.0

Honduras 7.3 7.9 8.3 6.0 6.8 4.9

Costa Rica 2.7 4.8 5.6 3.5 4.3 4.4

El Salvador 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.4

Brazil 1.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.2

Taiwan PC 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.5 0.1

China 0.0 0.0 3.1 0.0 1.9 0.0

Others 1.0 1.1 2.1 0.7 1.6 1.6


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

frozen wholefrozen filletsother tilapiaAverage

US$/Kg


Difficult year comes to a positive end Although the supply of farmed pangasius in Viet Nam was lower in 2009 than in 2008 because of poor demand and lower prices, by the end of the year processors had managed to turn the situation around and the total value of exports almost reached the 2008 level, ending at USD 1.3 billion. Prices of pangasius went up slightly by the end of December, with supply about 30% lower than at the end of 2008.

PANGASIUS

US growing market for Vietnamese pangasius

The USA greatly increased imports of pangasius in the first ten months of 2009 compared with the same period of 2008. Despite several difficulties, such as import tariffs and the issue of whether or not to revert to calling pangasius catfish again, exports to the USA reached 34 500 tonnes, an increase of 72% compared with the same period last year. The USA is now Viet Nam’s fourth largest market. Some of the main exporters even supplied over 50% of their 2009 production to this market. US import statistics mirror Vietnamese export data; between January and September 2009, some 26 800 tonnes were imported by the USA according to national customs statistics, which compares with 18 200 tonnes one year earlier. Viet Nam is the main supplier of catfish to the US market, accounting for 65% of total imports. Catfish from China, which has to go through a rigorous control process by US control bodies, declined sharply in 2009.

had to cut imports by 51% as a result of the difficult economic situation in the country. While the Russian market recovered somewhat during August-November 2009, Ukraine did not show any signs of improvement.

Western European markets, on the contrary, were more encouraging for Vietnamese pangasius, as its low price was well accepted in the present economic situation. Thus Spain and Germany became the top two importers of Vietnamese pangasius, expanding their imports by 7% and 4% respectively during 2009.

ImportsFrozen catfish: USA

............................Jan-Sept..........................

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (1 000 tonnes)

Viet Nam 5.8 11.4 12.9 18.2 26.8

China 1.1 2.9 8.8 11.1 6.6

Thailand 0.2 1.7 5.2 5.3 5.1

Malaysia 0.1 2.2 0.6 0.6 0.4

Indonesia 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2

Others 1.0 0.9 0.6 1.0 2.2

Total 8.2 19.3 28.7 36.8 41.3Source: GLOBEFISH

Others markets were less attractive for Vietnamese catfish producers, and production was reduced in Viet Nam by 30%, as the economic situation was not very positive. Russia, which used to be by far the largest market for Vietnamese catfish in 2008, was closed to Vietnamese products in the opening months of 2009, which resulted in a 66% reduction of imports in the first ten month period. Likewise Ukraine, the second largest market,

Prices, Pangasius fillet: Spain

Source: EPR

Total Vietnamese pangasius exports were 500 000 tonnes in the first ten months of 2009, a 9% decline from the record high 2008 figures. The value declined by 10% during the same period to USD 1 100 million.

The average unit value of Vietnamese pangasius exports over the whole year was USD 2.22/kg. During the course of the year the unit price declined by 2%. The US market offers the highest value for exports, where USD 3.20/kg is paid, while values are lowest in the Russian and Ukraine market with USD 1.65/kg. However, as the US market buys value-added products, such as breaded fillets, while the former USSR countries import fillets with little value-addition, these figures should not be compared directly.

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.7

2.9

3.1

3.3

3.5

Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09

skinless, boneless

IQ

EUR/Kg


PANGASIUS

Pangasius exports - in quantity terms - January October 2009

ExportsPangasius: Viet Nam

......................Jan-Dec.................... .....Jan-Oct....

2005 2006 2007 2008 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)EU 55.2 123.2 172.8 224.3 190.0 187.1

Russia na 42.7 48.7 118.2 96.0 35.9

Ukraine na na 23.0 74.4 70.9 34.1

Asean 22.0 28.5 33.8 34.0 28.9 35.3

China & HK 16.5 17.7 18.2 18.5 15.3 15.4

USA 14.8 24.3 21.2 24.2 20.1 34.5

Mexico 6.6 9.8 14.3 23.2 21.2 25.9

Egypt na na 6.3 26.6 20.5 19.0

Others 25.6 40.4 48.7 97.6 87.3 112.2

Total 140.7 286.6 387.0 640.8 550.2 499.4Source: Vietfish

2010 will be a difficult year

In 2010 the US farming bill could change the situation dramatically for pangasius imports when it is released. This bill would identify pangasius as catfish and put it under the rather restrictive sanitary control of the US Department of Agriculture. It has still not been set in motion and the consequences remain uncertain at present. The Russian market is the other unknown entity, and should the major buyers decide not to purchase, as happened during 2009, these products will flood the Western European market, creating many problems for the industry.

In addition, the Vietnamese government is planning to invest heavily in pangasius farming. Once the production from these investments comes on the market, the total annual production will be 1.6 million tonnes, which means 600 000 tonnes of additional product could swamp the market and adversely affect the current strong price situation.

EU38%

Russia7%

Mexico5%

Egypt4%

Others22%

Other31%

China & HK3% USA

7%Asean

7%Ukraine

7%


2010: a difficult year for producers but better than 2009

2010 will be a crucial year for the European seabass and seabream industry. Low prices for bream over the past years and the more recent price decline for bass have put pressure on company results. As a consequence, many producers are facing economic difficulties and are in need of strengthening their capital base. However, the low prices have also caused a supply response with a drop in production forecast for 2010. This should lead to higher prices than today and reinforce the usual price cycle caused by falling supplies during the winter months until the new season production reaches market size towards June and July. 2010 is therefore expected to be better for producers resulting from the higher prices forecast but also a year in which we are likely to see some industry restructuring.

SEABASS AND SEABREAM

Surprisingly good demand in European markets

Demand in 2009 was better than in the very weak 2008 with import volumes rising in the major markets, Italy, Spain and France, during the first nine months, the most recent period for which statistics are available. UK imports, however, were slightly down.

In the opening months of 2010, the market for European bass and bream was quiet after a hectic Christmas season. Some producers are out of stock but overall supplies are adequate for demand. Spain is expected to remain difficult, including for domestic producers which for the most part have higher costs than imported product from Greece and Turkey. The rise in imports in 2009 therefore could indicate that Spanish consumers are as eager as before in their consumption of bass and bream, but that price considerations lead some consumers to shift their demand towards imported products.

Italy and France will be better than last year, thanks to the improvement in economic prospects. Consumer

confidence in Italy is rising with private consumption expected to rise somewhat in 2010 after a contraction of personal disposable income in 2009. In both France and Italy, consumption could be helped further by some product development. Especially in Italy, consumers are extremely conservative in their food habits and are not easily persuaded to move towards more value-added products, particularly when the traditional fresh product is readily available at attractive prices. However, the long

ImportsFresh seabream and seabass: Italy(value)

............Jan-Dec............ ............Jan-Sept............

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

(million Euro)

Seabream

(dentex/pagellus)

Greece 8.3 6.4 7.6 4.3 4.5 4.1

Total 13.3 12.4 12.2 9.0 9.1 11.5

Seabream

(gilthead)

Greece 42.7 52.9 44.7 40.1 35.9 41.1

Turkey 2.9 5.2 5.7 3.8 3.3 4.5

Total 57.7 71.0 61.2 52.9 48.6 55.9

Seabass

Greece 43.8 57.5 44.3 42.4 36.5 37.4

Turkey 16.9 17.8 26.6 14.7 10.4 12.0

Total 82.0 98.5 88.4 74.1 63.8 63.7Gr.Total 153.0 181.9 161.9 136.0 121.5 131.1Source: ISTAT

term trends in demographics and household composition should lead to a growing market for value-added products with bass and bream as a partial or main component.

Imports ImportsSeabream: UK Seabass: UK

............Jan-Sept............ .......Jan-Sept.......

2008 2009 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes) (1000 tonnes)Greece 1.2 0.8 Greece 2.1 1.4

Netherlands 0.2 0.4 Netherlands 0.6 1.1

France 0.2 0.3 Italy 0.7 0.4

Italy 0.1 0.1 France 0.6 0.4

Morocco 0.2 0.0 Ireland 0.0 0.0

Others 0.0 0.2 Others 0.0 0.5

Total 1.9 1.8 Total 4.1 3.8Souce: National Statistics


The French market is in this respect more ready to take up new varieties, and value-added seabass and seabream products are already present in the food service channel. This is also the case for the UK where Greek

producers in particular have had success in supplying the supermarket chains with portion size fillets.

In general, seabass and seabream have two

major outlets: the retail channel with supermarkets in particular, and restaurants. For both channels, price is important but whereas supermarket sales are dependent on competing products as well, the volumes that go through the restaurant channel are more dependent on the overall state of the economy, as restaurant spending is extremely sensitive to change. Bass and bream have acquired by now a continued presence on restaurant menus thanks to high quality product and stable supplies throughout the year; however the frequency of visits by restaurant patrons is beyond the control of the industry.

Supermarket sales, on the contrary, depend also on price segmentation and most retail channels operate with two or three prices categories; inexpensive, normal and high prices. The price difference between the categories may be quite substantial with little direct relation to the actual cost or quality imbedded in the product. The inexpensive category is usually reserved for Turkish or Greek product for which large volumes are readily available. These are sold at very small or no margins at all. The mid-price category is usually for domestic production and the expensive category for wild captured fish or particular qualities such as organic. Some producers try to benefit from this segmentation by building up brand recognition or moving part of their products towards organic certification.


ImportsSeabream and seabass: France(value)

............Jan-Dec............ ............Jan-Sept............

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

(million Euro)

Seabream

(dentex/pagellus)

Greece 2.8 2.9 2.5 2.3 2.0 1.8

Total 7.5 5.6 4.8 4.4 3.8 4.0

Seabream

(gilthead)

Greece 11.4 13.6 15.8 10.8 12.4 15.3

Spain 4 5.9 5.4 4.0 3.9 5.4

Total 16.5 20.2 22.4 15.4 17.2 21.5

SeabassGreece 11.2 12.6 14.4 10.0 11.6 11.2

UK 1.6 1.3 0.8 1.1 0.7 1.4

Total 17.4 19.7 22.9 15.2 17.9 18.1Gr. Total 41.4 45.5 50.1 35 38.9 43.6Source: French national statistics

ImportsSeabream and seabass: France(quantity)

............Jan-Dec............ ............Jan-Sept............

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

( 1000 tonnes)

Seabream

(dentex/pagellus)

Greece 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5

Total 1.9 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1

Seabream

(gilthead)

Greece 2.5 3.1 4.6 2.4 3.5 4.2

Spain 1.1 1.3 1.5 0.8 1.4 1.4

Total 3.8 4.5 6.4 3.4 4.8 5.8

SeabassGreece 2.4 2.6 2.9 2.1 2.4 2.5

UK 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Total 3.7 4.0 4.4 3.1 3.5 4.8Gr. Total 9.4 9.9 12.1 7.6 9.4 11.7Source: French national statistics

ImportsFresh seabream and seabass: Italy(quantity)

............Jan-Dec............ ............Jan-Sept............

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

( 1000 tonnes)

Seabream

(dentex/pagellus)

Greece 1.7 1.4 1.4 0.9 1.1 0.9

Total 2.3 2 2 1.4 1.6 1.6

Seabream

(gilthead)

Greece 9.5 13.1 14.1 9.5 10.4 11.0

Turkey 0.8 1.5 1.9 1.0 1.1 1.4

Total 12.8 16.8 18.3 12.2 13.3 14.3

SeabassGreece 9.5 12.6 9.8 9.2 7.6 8.1

Turkey 4.6 4.4 3.6 1.0 2.4 3.4

Total 16.8 20.3 16.4 15.2 12.3 13.5Gr.Total 31.9 39.1 36.7 28.8 27.2 29.4Source: ISTAT



ProductionSeabass (Dicentrarchus labrax): World

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*

(1000 tonnes)

Greece 36.0 40.0 43.0 48.0 42.0

Turkey 21.1 30.0 33.0 35.0 32.0

Italy 8.6 9.1 10.0 9.0 9.0

France 4.3 5.6 5.0 4.0 4.0

Spain 5.5 8.9 11.0 11.0 10.0

Egypt 5.3 2.1 3.0 2.0 2.0

Croatia 1.9 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.0

Portugal 1.5 1.4 2.0 2.0 2.0

Tunisia 0.6 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0

Others 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.0

Total 85.5 99.8 111.0 115.0 105.0Source: FAO/AQUAMEDIA (for 2007and 2008), (*) Provisional

Production Seabream (Sparus aurata): World

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*

(1000 tonnes)

Greece 44.0 60.0 72.0 90.0 88.0

Turkey 17.5 22.5 28.0 32.0 31.0

Spain 15.6 20.2 23.0 25.0 25.0

Italy 8.5 8.9 9.0 9.0 9.0

Egypt 5.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0

Israel 3.4 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.0

Portugal 2.5 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.0

Croatia 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

France 1.9 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0

Others 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.0

Total 102.8 125.0 146.0 170.0 167.0Source: FAO/AQUAMEDIA (for 2007 and 2008), (*) Provisional

Supply lower in 2010

With uncertain demand in 2009 and low prices of bream continuing throughout the year, and with bass prices falling as well, most producers cut back on their stocking of new fish. This should lead to reduced output in 2010 and higher prices. It should also lead to some mergers as the weaker companies in need of capital will be taken over. Larger companies could lead to opportunities for some converted marketing efforts but whether this will have any effect in practise is doubtful because of the fragmentation still characterizing the industry.

PricesSeabass and seabream: Italy

Source: EPR; GLOBEFISH AN 10512, 10514fresh whole 300-450 gr/pc, origin Greece

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00


€/kg

Seabass

Seabream

Despite the current problems caused by low prices, one should not forget that the Mediterranean seabass and seabream industry has been and continues to be a major supplier of fresh high quality fish to European consumers, available at very reasonable prices on a year round basis. This will continue in 2010 and in the years to come, despite some moderate price increases.

ImportsSeabream and Seabass: Spain(value)

............Jan-Dec............ ............Jan-Sept............

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

(million Euro)

Seabream

(all species)

Greece 21.4 23.2 25.5 16.0 16.4 23.4

France 1.2 2.2 1.0 1.4 1.4 2.3

Morocco 3.1 2.0 3.4 1.5 0.9 1.2

Total 29.1 34.4 33 22.4 24.0 30.1

SeabassGreece 15.1 17.6 22.8 12.1 14.5 11.8

Turkey 13.9 15.0 7.7 12.0 7.6 8.2

France 5.6 5.7 6.1 3.8 3.9 3.6

Morocco 1.5 1.3 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.4

Total 38.3 42.5 43.3 31.0 28.0 24.4Gr. Total 67.4 76.9 76.3 53.4 49.8 54.5Source: Spanish national statistics


Tight supplies in 2010 and firming prices

Farmed salmon prices are markedly higher in the European market and are expected to remain firm during 2010 although with some seasonal variation. Supply swings resulting from climatic conditions or holidays will influence prices for short periods. However, the underlying factors that are driving salmon prices remain the following: on the demand side, growth in salmon sales is expected in most markets; and, on the supply side, growth in production in Norway and most other European producing countries will not be large enough to fully compensate for drastic decreases in Chile’s salmon supply throughout 2010.

SALMON

A record year for Norway in 2009 but some stability in 2010

Norway’s salmon exports for 2009 showed record numbers, again, growing 16.3 % in volume to 834 000 tonnes (round weight equivalent) and 32% in value to NOK 23.7 billion.

71% of export volumes and 70% of values are to the EU with France, Poland, Denmark and the UK as the largest destinations. Non-EU markets such as Russia,

the USA and Japan all showed growth in imports from Norway, mainly thanks to the shortfall in Chilean supply. Export growth to the USA in particular was spectacular with 300% increases from 2008.

But not all Norwegian companies have benefited from the Chilean problems. It must be recalled that many Norwegian companies have extensive operations in Chile and these have suffered from the ISA virus to the same extent as the purely Chilean companies. Within Norway, some companies have had production problems in 2009, in particular related to sea lice.

Norway’s record exports in 2009 were undoubtedly the result of growing production aimed at external markets, as the domestic market with only 4.5 million inhabitants is limited. Whether this growth will continue into 2010 is not certain however, with some analysts now predicting a stabilization of Norwegian production. In combination with a record low production in Chile, this would lead to lower overall supplies to many markets, in particular the USA where Norway has taken up some of the slack caused by Chile’s strong reduction in production and sales.

2009 worst year yet for Chilean salmon

Chilean harvests of Atlantic salmon between January and September 2009 totalled 150 100 tonnes, which represents a 44% drop from the 268 800 tonnes harvested in the same period in 2008. Rainbow trout production also showed a reduction in the same period (-16%, 91 200 tonnes), while harvests of coho salmon grew slightly in the period reviewed (+3%, 47 800 tonnes). Therefore, total production of salmonids in the first nine months of 2009 totalled 289 100 tonnes, a 10% reduction from the 323 900 tonnes reached in the same period in 2008.

By midyear, the Chilean Salmon Industry Association (SalmonChile), forecast that the drop in total production of salmonids would be 40%, as a result of the effect of ISA virus. However, some operators expect the reduction to be lower, despite the fact that they expect 2010 to be another negative year in terms of production but reaching the bottom of the productive crisis.

Exports (value)Salmon and Trout: Norway

..............Jan-Dec.............. ..............Jan-Sept..............

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

(bill. NOK)Salmon 17.1 17.5 17.4 12.1 12.2 17.6Fresh 12.6 13.1 13.9 9.4 9.9 12.6

Frozen 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.6

Fresh fill. 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.9

Froz. fill. 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 1.1

Trout 1.3 1.3 1.8 0.9 1.3 1.4Source: Norwegian Seafood Export Council

Exports (quantity)Salmon and Trout: Norway

..............Jan-Dec.............. ..............Jan-Sept..............

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)Salmon 494.4 585.4 598.6 411.6 422.9 515.5Fresh 397.0 493.4 514.8 347.3 365.8 394.0

Frozen 37.8 42.9 33.7 28.6 22.6 19.7

Fresh fill. 27.5 33.3 35.3 23.5 24.8 39.3

Froz. fill. 18.0 15.8 14.8 12.2 9.7 18.0

Trout 46.9 58.8 76.8 31.2 54.6 44.5Source: Norwegian Seafood Export Council


Stocking of salmon in 2009 is estimated to have dropped by 80%, although it is expected that it will improve in 2010 along with better sanitary conditions. Production centres with ISA virus infection have dropped significantly, and currently no centre is reported to have an outbreak, allowing some positive expectations for the future. Several laboratories have already announced and registered vaccines for the remaining Chilean Atlantic

SALMON

Exports (quantity)Salmon and Trout: Chile

.............Jan-Dec............. ..............Jan-Sept..............

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)Japan 148 146 163 105 122 106

USA 109 114 108 85 83 58

EU (25) 46 41 43 29 33 21

Lat.America 29 36 53 25 39 42

Others 54 60 79 42 65 53

Total 386 397 446 287 342 280Source: Boletín de Exportaciones del IFOP

Exports (value)Salmon and Trout: Chile

..............Jan-Dec.............. ..............Jan-Sept..............

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

(million USD)Japan 704 648 708 487 477 557

USA 792 862 795 659 602 454

EU (25) 308 279 284 202 216 132

Lat.America 156 202 268 144 203 204

Others 246 258 335 184 267 213

Total 2206 2249 2391 1675.7 1765.0 1559.3Source: Boletín de Exportaciones del IFOP

Exports (unit value)Salmon and Trout: Chile

..............Jan-Dec.............. ..............Jan-Sept..............

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

(in USD/kg) Salmon 5.80 6.02 5.60 6.20 5.47 5.50 Frozen 5.40 5.54 5.11 5.66 4.94 4.99

Fresh 6.80 6.73 6.38 6.99 6.31 6.56

Canned 5.75 6.72 6.18 6.86 6.22 6.64

Salted 6.06 7.00 6.67 6.25 6.83 8.12

Smoked 11.60 12.66 12.73 12.88 12.60 12.85

Trout 5.20 4.71 4.76 4.90 4.40 5.73 Frozen 5.20 4.48 4.55 4.69 4.18 5.46

Fresh 6.20 6.13 5.82 6.44 5.49 6.98

Canned 6.10 5.50 5.00 6.96 6.62 7.24

Salted 4.84 4.89 10.00 4.96 5.20 5.74

Smoked 9.20 9.76 10.30 9.82 10.03 11.76

Average 5.66 5.77 5.37 5.83 5.17 5.56Source: Boletín de Exportaciones del IFOP

Exports (value)Salmon and Trout: Chile

..............Jan-Dec.............. ..............Jan-Sept..............

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

(million USD)Salmon 1694.8 1714.6 1797.0 1276.5 1334.2 1112.8 Frozen 1088.2 1014.7 1085.0 742.6 791.9 726.4

Fresh 578.1 635.6 643.0 483.4 489.8 346.3

Canned 20.4 21.5 21.0 17.0 17.0 13.2

Salted 8.1 51.6 6.0 5.0 4.9 1.9

Smoked 30.5 36.7 42.0 28.6 30.6 24.9

Trout 483.9 523.4 594.0 399.1 430.8 446.5 Frozen 427.7 462.8 527.0 365.5 379.2 382.9

Fresh 7.6 19.0 32.0 12.3 24.0 28.7

Canned 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.2 0.9

Salted 8.6 4.4 1.0 3.8 0.5 7.5

Smoked 39.0 36.1 34.0 25.6 25.9 26.5

Total 2178.7 2238.0 2391.0 1675.7 1765.0 1559.3Source: Boletín de Exportaciones del IFOP

Exports (quantity)Salmon and Trout: Chile

..............Jan-Dec.............. ..............Jan-Sept..............

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)Salmon 291.5 284.7 320.8 205.8 243.8 202.5 Frozen 201.7 183.4 212.4 131.1 160.2 145.5

Fresh 85.0 94.4 100.8 69.2 77.7 52.8

Canned 3.5 3.2 3.4 2.5 2.7 2.0

Salted 1.3 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.2

Smoked 2.6 2.9 3.3 2.2 2.4 1.9

Trout 93.3 111.1 124.8 81.4 97.9 77.9 Frozen 86.1 103.2 115.8 76.0 90.6 70.1

Fresh 1.0 3.1 5.5 1.9 4.4 4.1

Canned 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1

Salted 1.8 0.9 0.1 0.8 0.1 1.3

Smoked 4.2 3.7 3.3 2.6 2.6 2.3



salmon affected by the ISA virus. The introduction of vaccines, as well as the management measures to be taken by authorities and producers should allow a recovery of the activity by 2011, according to the President of SalmonChile, who also expects 2010 to be a year of increased stocking.

The drop in production has had very negative social and economic effects. First of all, over 15 000 workers have lost their jobs, while the financial situation of companies has became a matter of concern. According to some estimations, salmon producing companies owed about USD 1 600 million to the banking sector, forcing many companies to renegotiate their liabilities. In the second half of 2009, many companies reached agreement with banks. In another more positive development, it is expected that the new regulatory framework for fishing and aquaculture that is included in the General Law for Fishing and Aquaculture will create a new framework that allows new channels for companies to obtain financing and for banks to be given guarantees, including allowing for commercialization of production licences. In January 2010, the law is still in the Chilean Senate and it is not clear whether it will be adopted in the present legislative period.

Latin America imports more Chilean salmon

Chilean exports of salmon and trout fell 18% in terms of volume and 12% in terms of value, totalling 280 400tonnes worth USD 1 560 million in the first nine months of 2009. Consequently, the unit value of exports grew 7.6% in the period reviewed. In 2008, exporters from Chile managed to increase volume by slaughtering younger salmons, but the figures in 2009 reflect the fact that this trend could not be sustained and, in fact, contributed additionally to the lower level of harvests. The drop in volume and value of exports was both for salmon and trout; however, exports of trout grew remarkably in the

period surveyed (+30%), while the unit value of salmon exports remained almost unchanged (+0.5%).

Sales to Japan accounted for 38% of total Chilean salmon exports in terms of volume, followed by the USA with a 21% share, and Latin American countries accounted for 19% of total volumes of salmonids sold to foreign countries.

It is important to highlight that Latin American countries are consolidating as a market of importance above the EU, and are almost reaching the US share. The main market in Latin America is Brazil, accounting for 76% of total exports to Latin America (31 900 tonnes).

Firm demand in world salmon market

Salmon markets have been remarkably good through a difficult 2009 with most economies in decline or at least stagnant. The firm demand, however, should not be too much of a surprise as farmed salmon popularity in previous economic downturns has also proven to be resilient. Overall, market growth in 2009 is estimated by Kontali, the industry analysts, to have been around 2%.

Among the major import markets, the picture is a bit mixed. Japan was down from 2008, which was a particularly good year for salmon in that market. US import

SALMON

Source: GLOBEFISH, FOB Miami

PricesSalmon fillets: USA, origin Chile

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10

USD/lb

ProductionFarmed salmon: World

2006 2007 2008 2009* 2010*

(1000 tonnes)

ATLANTIC SALMON

Norway 600 725 790 880 900

Chile 370 355 360 180 95

UK 125 140 145 150 160

Canada 115 110 110 120 140

Faeroe Is. 13 20 25 30 35

Australia 16 20 20 20 22

Ireland 15 15 15 15 18

USA 10 12 12 15 20

Others 3 3 3 5 5

Total 1267 1400 1480 1415 1395

PACIFIC SALMON

Japan 10 10 10 10 10

Chile 115 120 113 120 135

Canada 10 8 7 7 7

New Zealand 10 10 10 10 10

Total 145 148 140 147 162

Gr. Total 1412 1548 1620 1559 1557Source: GLOBEFISH AN 12201

* estimate


SALMON

volumes were flat from 2008 whereas the EU was growing. In Europe, France, Poland, and Germany showed strong increases. French demand for salmon is also sustained by the presence of salmon in all sectors with the processing industry constantly engaging in product development with salmon as a major component. Poland’s imports are to a large extent destined for the processing industry, which now is the major producer of smoked salmon for the European market. Increasingly, fillets and cutlets are also being produced for export.

The Spanish market was difficult and is expected to remain weak owing to the protracted economic crisis with unemployment figures close to 20%. Italy has also been disappointing with no real growth experienced now for several years. In this market, competition from traditional Mediterranean species such as seabass and seabream has been particularly strong, and for salmon demand to grow, more product development is probably needed.

ImportsSalmon: Germany (by product)

...........Jan-Dec........... ............Jan-Sept............

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)Fresh salm. 47.9 47.0 38.0 34.6 24.8 34.1

Frozen salm. 7.2 4.7 3.5 2.3 2.4 3.3

Smoked salm. 16.4 18.0 22.0 12.3 15.9 21.9

Fresh fillets 6.5 6.2 6.2 4.2 4.1 5.5

Frozen fillets 33.5 34.5 33.7 24.7 24.0 23.0


ImportsSalmon: Japan

...................Jan-Dec...................

...................Jan-Sept...................

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)

FreshAtlantic 21.9 21.6 20.0 15.6 14.4 14.9

Norway 16.7 18.4 15.6 13.4 11.0 13.3

UK 0.8 1.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3

Australia 0.6 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.8

Pacific 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4

Total 23.0 22.5 20.6 16.3 14.9 15.3

FrozenAtlantic 2.9 2.4 4.4 1.8 1.7 4.4

Norway 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.4

Pacific 127.7 123.6 126.9 98.4 109.2 94.0

Canada 2.4 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4

USA 19.2 20.2 18.1 15.0 15.0 17.2

N. Zealand 1.8 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.6 1.5

Chile 73.1 73.1 80.9 61.9 72.8 60.1

Russia 30.9 28.9 26.4 20.7 20.4 14.7

Total 130.6 126.0 131.3 100.2 110.9 98.4Grand Total 172.8 153.6 148.5 116.5 125.8 113.7Source: Japanese national import statistics

ImportsSalmon: Germany (by origin)

..............Jan-Dec.............. ..............Jan-Sept..............

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)Norway 48.9 48.9 40.7 35.6 26.0 35.1

Poland 13.7 15.5 19.4 11.3 14.2 19.4

China 8.6 10.9 12.3 7.5 9.0 9.6

Chile 15.7 14.5 13.3 11.0 9.5 7.1

Denmark 8.5 8.5 8.3 5.8 5.8 6.4

Others 16.1 12.0 10.2 7.1 6.7 10.0


ImportsSalmon: France

..............Jan-Dec.............. ..............Jan-Sept..............

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)Fresh whole 86.2 88.5 90.7 59.3 63.4 70.3

Norway 59.1 63.3 64.6 42.4 45.4 48.5

UK 18.7 17.8 17.6 11.7 12.0 12.1

Frozen Pac 5.9 5.3 4.1 2.2 1.8 2.0

USA 5.6 5.3 2.8 1.9 1.0 1.6

Frozen Atl 4.9 4.5 3.1 3.1 2.2 2.1

Smoked 5.0 4.1 4.8 2.7 3.2 3.9

UK 2.1 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6

Fresh fillets 5.2 5.0 6.1 3.7 4.3 6.8

Norway 4.3 3.6 5.2 2.5 3.8 5.9

Frozen fillets 18.3 18.9 19.7 13.5 14.2 16.0

Chile 9.2 9.1 8.8 6.6 6.6 7.1

China 3.6 3.5 4.5 2.5 3.6 4.3

Grand Total 125.4 126.3 128.4 84.5 89.1 101.1Source National Statistics


SALMON

Difficult time for salmon processors

The expected high prices during 2010 will cause difficulties for the processors in general and the salmon smokers in particular, forcing them to look for alternatives where possible, including trout and coho. In the fresh market, there are not really any close substitutes for farmed salmon, except maybe chicken, although many consumers will find ready alternatives in turbot, seabass and seabream, albeit at higher prices. And consumers looking for fillets will easily find defrosted fillets of tilapia and catfish, imported from Asia and Africa. However, farmed salmon remains firmly entrenched in most traditional consumer markets thanks to an excellent price/quality ratio, a wide range of salmon products available to consumers and efficient distribution and logistics guaranteeing availability year-round. In addition, concerted market and promotional efforts by the major producers keeps the product high on the consumer’s attention screen.

ImportsSalmon: USA

..............Jan-Dec.............. ..............Jan-Sept..............

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)

Fresh filletsChile 71.8 80.1 76.4 59.2 58.8 35.0

Canada 6.3 4.2 5.4 3.2 4.7 3.1

Norway 2.6 2.3 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.4

Other 2.6 4.4 2.3 3.3 2.8 16.4

Total 83.3 90.1 86.3 67.5 68.1 55.9All salmon 242.7 250.2 241.8 187.3 181.7 181.4Source: GLOBEFISH AN 11630

2010 a year of consolidation but 2011 prom-ises to be challenging

Some stabilization of Norwegian production levels in 2010 and 2011 would be beneficial in the longer-term, as the Chilean comeback in 2011 and 2012 otherwise could cause drastically lower prices in all markets and for all producers. Such a scenario with extreme cyclical price movements would not be beneficial for the industry. Although consumers and processors would benefit in the short term from a price fall, Norway and Chile as well as the other producing countries are all dependent on some stability to be able to grow sustainably in the long run. However, 2010 and 2011 should be good years for Norwegian producers.

Chilean production of salmon and trout is strongly lower than in previous years, reflecting the impact of ISA virus on the main species, Atlantic salmon. However, the reduction in the outbreaks of the disease, as well as production figures above the original estimations for 2009, has allowed an improvement in expectations. It is expected that 2010 production will not show an increase, and it might possibly be lower, although seeding should show a recovery, after dropping by around 80% in 2009. The availability of vaccines for the virus is another positive sign for the next year. The lower availability of raw material allowed international prices to maintain their level. Other suppliers have not managed to fill the gap left by Chilean salmon; such is the case of the US, where other exporters such as Norway, grew their sales to that market, but could not fully compensate the fall of Chilean sales.

PricesSalmon: Europe, origin: Norway

Source: EPR; GLOBEFISH AN 10512, 10514Fresh, gutted, head-on, 3-5 kg/pc

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00


US$/kg

5-6 kg

2-3 kg

SALMON NEWS

Good wild salmon harvest Alaska’s commercial fishermen harvested 161.7 million salmon in 2009, the 11th-largest harvest since statehood. The 2009 harvest was 15 million fish higher than, or 9.8% above, the 2008 harvest of 146 million fish. The preliminary 2009 average unit values show decreases for all species of salmon compared with 2008. For sockeye, the price is USD 0.80 /lb. The chum salmon harvest of 17.9 million fish ranked as the seventh-best of all time in numbers of fish, and the ex-vessel value of USD 57.4 million was well below the near record setting 2008 ex-vessel value of USD 87.1 million.


Fishmeal imports into China were slow in the third quarter of 2009

China is the main world market for fishmeal and imports more than a million tonnes of fishmeal each year. In the opening months of 2009 China’s imports of fishmeal were steady but later in the year buying interest slowed. In the third quarter of year, the country imported only 200 000 tonnes from Peru and Chile, compared with 400 000 tonnes in the same period of 2008. In the closing months, few shipments arrived in China, and coldstorage holdings are very low at the moment.

Sustainability of resources used for fishmeal production is becoming a major issue for feed producers,

Fishmeal production continues to decline

Peruvian fishmeal production was relatively stable in 2009, although Chile reported substantial declines in fishmeal outputs. Scandinavian countries, too, had lower catches of species destined for fishmeal production. All these factors resulted in high fishmeal prices. In December 2009, fishmeal prices reached an historic high of USD 1 600, four times higher than soymeal prices. Indications are that fishmeal prices will continue to soar in coming months.

FISHMEAL

PricesFishmeal and Soymeal

* all origins, 64-65% cif Hamburg; ** 44% cif RotterdamSource: Oil World, GLOBEFISH AN 11702, 11706

ProductionFishmeal: 5 major producers

.............Jan-Dec............. .............Jan-Sept............

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)Peru 1456 1420 1390 934 899 942

Chile 776 700 668 592 552 500

Denmark 213 162 151 126 113 110

Norway 176 155 148 130 140 120

Iceland 162 135 251 114 213 178

Total 2783 2572 2608 1897 1917 1850Source: GLOBEFISH

ExportsFishmeal: Peru

.............Jan-Dec............. .............Jan-Sept............

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)China 544.1 555.2 831.9 444.6 751.3 670.1

Germany 211.1 166.0 191.9 149.4 143.7 206.9

Japan 171.3 149.7 148.1 131.1 114.6 101.6

Vietnam 31.2 43.9 63.1 30.2 55.3 61.4

Taiwan PC 58.0 39.3 46.8 30.2 35.3 54.4

Others 326.8 309.8 282.0 239.3 239.2 242.0

Total 1342.5 1263.9 1563.8 1024.8 1339.4 1336.4

especially those targeting the aquaculture industry. As fish for reduction purposes is limited by strict catch quotas and by availability of resources, end users are considering alternative protein sources.

However, demand is still good from the major buyers of fishmeal and producers worldwide are able to sell everything that they produce. Even if the percentage of fishmeal in feed formulations is reduced the total demand will most probably remain very strong as the need for feed production is growing every year.

Prices will continue to be high

El Niño seems likely to become apparent soon off the Pacific coast of South and Central America, but the impact on fisheries is not yet clear. Imported fishmeal prices remained firm in the Chinese market with flat trade in January 2010. However, fishmeal inventory in China is at an historic low of about 50 000 tonnes, with the majority of stocks held in a few hands. As a result, new Peruvian fishmeal prices remain firm at Chinese ports. As it is still the low season for aquaculture production at present, the main interest in the Chinese fishmeal trade is coming from fur feed mills. Fishmeal demand in China is expected to be strong once farmed production resumes after the cold spell. As a result, fishmeal prices are likely to stay high.

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Fish oil prices move up again

World fish oil production is declining despite higher Peruvian production. Prices increased in the course of 2009, but without reaching the peaks of mid 2008. Demand for fish oil is strong on the world market, and further price increases are likely in coming months.

FISH OIL

Higher fish oil production in Peru

The Peruvian catch of small pelagics for reduction was 5.8 million tonnes in 2009, which compares with 6.0 million tonnes in 2008. Production of fish oil from this source was higher in 2009 than in 2008, because of better oil yields and improved extraction techniques. Total Peruvian fish oil production in the first nine months of 2009 was 225 000 tonnes, 25% more than in the same period of 2008.

the international trade of this product. Exports reached 229 000 tonnes in the first nine months of 2009, a 22.5% increase over the previous year. Denmark and Belgium are the main importers of Peruvian fish oil, taking 28% and 27% respectively of Peruvian exports of this product. It is interesting to note that China does not play an important role as a market for fish oil from Peru.

Further price increases likely

The Peruvian industry is expecting an El Niño year in 2010, which will lead to lower fish oil outputs. Production is also forecast to decline in other producing countries, which will lead to a supply shortage. On the contrary, demand continues to be strong and thus prices are likely to move up even further.

Fish oil versus crude oil

Source: GLOBEFISH

ExportsFishoil: Peru

.......Jan-Dec....... ............Jan-Sept...........

2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)Belgium 52.8 64.6 52.8 46.3 59.6

Chile 92.9 52.3 77.5 48.5 16.5

Denmark 86.2 32.6 70.7 22.0 64.7

Norway 26.2 31.4 12.9 31.4 15.2

Canada 15.0 20.5 15.0 16.5 15.3

Australia 8.9 10.0 8.9 6.0 8.2

Others 23.8 23.4 14.7 17.6 50.4

Total 305.7 234.9 252.5 188.3 229.9Source: Produce

ProductionFish oil: main exporters

..........Jan-Dec.......... ..........Jan-Sept.........

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)Peru 287 333 320 210 180 225

Chile 118 118 139 111 105 85

Denmark 67 56 55 38 38 28

Iceland 42 46 81 32 57 30

Norway 37 18 38 33 32 27

Total 594 697 633 424 400 395Source: GLOBEFISH

ExportsFishoil: Chile

.............Jan-Dec............. ...........Jan-Sept...........

2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009

(1000 tonnes)Japan 7.3 8.3 15.8 6.5 6.0 8.5

Denmark 15.0 0.0 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

China 10.5 18.1 12.6 16.9 11.9 12.4

Norway 0.0 10.0 5.5 0.4 5.4 1.0

Others 29.2 35.6 32.2 27.6 26.2 48.5


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Demand for fish oil continued to be strong in the course of 2009. In particular,the oil capsule industry continued to increase its purchases to meet growing demand for omega-3 fish oil for human consumption. Peruvian fish oil is playing the most important role in

HIGHLIGHTSA quarterly update based on the GLOBEFISH databank

Crisis seems to be over also for shrimp industryDuring 2009 the strong yen has made shrimp imports and landing prices cheaper in the Japanese market. The EU mar-ket took advantage of the low

shrimp prices experienced in 2009, and overall imports were stable. p. 1

Recession hits tuna industry The global recession has had a wide range of effects on

the seafood sector generally, and the tuna industry more specifically. From a demand perspective, consumers in the US and Europe are changing

their purchasing preferences by focussing on price. On both continents, consumers are substituting seafood products with less expensive sources of protein, such as chicken, or buying less expensive seafood or a smaller amount of the same quality. p. 6

Lower groundfish prices in all major marketsIn 2009 a number of groundfish resources showed good signs of recovery, after several rather bleak years. The one

major exception to this trend was the Alaskan groundfish fishery. Good supply to all major markets combined with ongoing economic crisis led to declining prices. p.11

Limited squid supply, but price increases did not follow

Squid catches were low in the South West Atlantic and in Peruvian waters in 2009. Supply to the world market

was about 300 000 tonnes lower than in 2008, but prices did not go up as expected. The main reason was the bleak economic climate, especially in Spain. p. 14


Tilapia markets were influenced by the difficult economic situation and by low groundfish prices in all major markets. USA is still the major tilapia importing country,

while China and Egypt are the main tilapia consuming countries. p. 17

30/1/2010

Difficult year comes to a positive endAlthough the supply of farmed pangasius in Viet Nam was lower in 2009 than in 2008 because of poor demand and lower prices, by the end of

the year processors had managed to turn the situation around and the total value of exports almost reached the 2008 level, ending at USD 1.3 billion. p. 19 2010: a difficult year for producers but better than 2009

2010 will be a crucial year for the European seabass and seabream industry. Low prices for bream over the past years

and the more recent price decline for bass have put pressure on company results. As a consequence, many producers are facing economic difficulties and are in need of strengthening their capital base. p. 21

Tight supplies in 2010 and firming pricesFarmed salmon prices are markedly higher in the European market and are expected to remain firm during

2010 although with some seasonal variation. Supply swings resulting from climatic conditions or holidays will influence prices for short periods. p. 24

Fishmeal production continues to decline Peruvian fishmeal production was relatively stable in 2009, although Chile reported substantial declines in fishmeal outputs. Scandinavian

countries, too, had lower catches of species destined for fishmeal production. p. 29

Fish oil prices move up againWorld fish oil production is declining despite higher Peruvian production. Prices increased in the course of 2009, but without reaching the peaks of mid 2008. Demand for

fish oil is strong on the world market, and further price increases are likely in coming months. p. 30

Issue 1/2010

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Policy and Economics DivisionViale delle Terme di Caracalla

00153 Rome, ItalyTel.: +39 06 5705 6313Fax: +39 06 5705 5188

www.globefish.org

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