Globalization of Offshore Wind - renewable-ei.org
Transcript of Globalization of Offshore Wind - renewable-ei.org
Rue d’Arlon 80
1040 Brussels,Belgium
T. +32 2 213 18 97
www.gwec.net
Globalization of Offshore WindBen Backwell, GWEC
Tokyo, 8 March 2019
Ben Backwell - CEO of GWEC
Author of Wind Power, the Struggle for Control of a New Global
Industry (Taylor and Francis , 2017) Haynes Guide to Offshore
Wind Energy (Haynes/Renewable UK)
Former industry consultant at FTI Consulting, advised leading
players in UK offshore wind market on political stake holder
management, lobbying and media engagement
Former energy journalist and analyst, covering energy policy
and markets for 15 years
GWEC Offshore Task Force Workplan 2018/19
Activity Nov
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Sep
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A Stakeholder engagement
Stakeholder mapping
Comms planning, 1st engagement
1st engagement - tier 1
1st engagement - tier 2
1st engagement - tier 3
Collate feedback
Comms planning, subsequent engagements → → →
Press articles Recharge 600 words
B Policy toolkit
Calibration workshop in UK 27
Adjust toolkit
Identify US calibration State
Identify Asia calibration country
Set up US workshop
Deploy US workshop IPF
Set up Asia workshop
Deploy Asia workshop
Identify countries/states for deployment
Finalise toolkit v1
Plan roll-out for 2019
Roll-out workshops → → →
C Best practice guidance
List topics
Agree topics
Topic 1 drafting
Topic 1 expert review
Topic 1 task force review
Publish topic 1 guidance
Further topics → → →
D Joint industry workstreams
Propose themes
Agree themes
Plan themes ⇣
Budget themes ⇣
Agree funding sources ⇣
Propose funding ⇣ ⇣
Agree funding ⇣ ⇣ → → →
⇣ ⇣ ⇣
E Events ⇣ ⇣ ⇣
Task Force meetings 21
Global Offshore Summit & Taiwan Wind Power 25
International Partnering Forum, US 8
Global Offshore Wind, UK 25
F Policy research
Market opportunities updates
Country profiles
Topic specific research
G Programme activities
Risk register
Theme reviews
After action reviews UK w/s India w/s 1st comms Agree themes US w/s 1st guidance GOW Themes funding
Initial Activities
1 Market intelligence
2 Market readiness assessment
3 Market entry opportunities
4 Policy advocacy
5 In-country events
6 Knowledge transfer
7 Skills training
and more to come…
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Global Wind Ambassador – Henrik Stiesdal
• Designed seminal wind turbine models that
shaped modern wind industry
• Built world’s first full scale Offshore Wind farm
• Designed most successful offshore wind
turbines in market as CTO of Siemens
Windpower
• Has designed revolutionary floating wind
concept with pilot set to be deployed and
investment from Shell and Innogy
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Task Force Chairman - Alastair Dutton
• Former BP - developed solar, onshore wind
and offshore wind projects.
• Former Programme Manager for all the UK’s
offshore wind projects for the Crown Estate
which owns the UK seabed. Managed
successful Round 3 and N Ireland tenders
and chaired the selection panel for the site
awards.
• Former Expert Advisor for Offshore Wind at
the UK Department for Business, Energy and
Industrial Strategy (BEIS)
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GWEC Market Readiness Assessment
• GWEC runs Market Readiness Assessment workshops
• These allow governments to benchmark themselves
confidentially against other countries in a number of key
areas
• And to undertake a gap analysis
• Together with industry and other stake holders,
government can then decide to take appropriate actions
to advance in key areas and increase their ability to build
their offshore wind industries and attract investment
Copyright Advent.re 2018
Offshore Wind Market Readiness Assessment
To assess the readiness and attractiveness of new and emerging offshore wind markets
wind markets for offshore wind deployment and to identify where improvements would
be best focused.
Topic Level Objective Gap Target Date
1 Policy 2 4 2
2 Stakeholders 2 3 1
3 Legal 3 4 1
4 Health and Safety 1 3 2
5 Consenting 2 5 3
6 Grid 3 4 1
7 Offtake 2 4 2
8 Projects 4 4 0
9 Manufacturing 2 3 1
10 Finance 2 4 2
11 Construction 1 3 2
12 Operation and Commissioning 1 2 1
Assessment Dates to
Planned Review Date
Subsequent sheets explain the separate topic rankings and how they have been derived in
this assessment.
For further information please contact:
Alastair Dutton
+44 7836 229342 © advent.re 2018
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GWEC – World Bank/IFC Cooperation to take Offshore
Global
* Preliminary
Source: GWEC Market Intelligence
Offshore wind growing globally
0,5
3,4
20182008 2010 2015
1,0
4,5
New offshore installations and offshore share of total installations,GW and per cent
5.3% 8.8%2.0% 2.9%
New installations - GWEC’s Market Outlook on the global offshore market,GW
13,2
4,3 3,2
2,47,4
2019e
2,5
4,34,5
10,6
2020e 2021e
4,2
6,1
2022e
10,3
4,8
6,87,6
2,7
2023e
6,7
0,8
2018
1,8
CAGR+24%
Asian offshoreEuropean offshore N. American offshore
New installations 2018Per cent100% = 4.5GW
37%
30%
22%
10%
China* Germany
UK Other European
Main drivers of growth – Consistent political support
Example GermanyEmployment in the German offshore industry* and added offshore capacity
2.0 3.05.0
17.0 17.514.4
19.6
3.3 5.8
7.6
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
201320122009
15.4
2010 2011
0.7 1.3
20152014 2016
17.7 18.8 18.720.2
27.2
Number of jobs created
+22.2
New capacity
Maintance
Manufacturing
‘000 employeesMW
EEG** 2000Focus to scale-
up generation
EEG** 2009Focus on LCOE
reductions
EEG** 2012Focus on introducing market-based options (e. g.,
option to chose market premium, ladder tariff, introduction of offshore auctions)
* Defined as “gross employment” covering all employment areas within the industry (manufacturing, marketing, administration etc.)
divided into either maintenance or new-build manufacturing
** EEG – “Erneuerbare Energie Gesetz” – German laws regulating the support for renewables including offshore wind
Source: BMWI/ AGEE (2016 – latest available data), Deutsche Bank Analysis
Main drivers of growth – Supply chain growth
* LCOE refers to projects signed during the given year, but not the LCOE of the installed volume: time lag between project signature and
installation is 4-5 years
Source: GWEC, BNEF H2 2018 Wind LCOE Update, Renewable UK
143 140
132 125111
8778 72 66
0
50
100
150 145
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
12
4
0
8
2,92,1
6,9
4,5
1,3
3,75,1 5,2
8,2
0,9
48%43%36%20%
LCOE UK Offshore WindUSD/MWh
Total offshore installations in UKGW
Share of gross value addPer cent
Average LCOE reduction per
year: - 8%
Average growth of total installations per
year: +23%
Increase of gross value add: +28%
Main drivers of growth – Supply chain growth
* LCOE refers to projects signed during the given year, but not the LCOE of the installed volume: time lag between project signature and
installation is 4-5 years
Source: GWEC, BNEF H2 2018 Wind LCOE Update, Renewable UK
145 143 140
132 125111
8778 72 66
0
50
100
150
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
0
4
8
12
2,92,1
1,30,9
3,74,5 5,1 5,2
6,98,2
LCOE UK Offshore WindUSD/MWh
Total offshore installations in UKGW
48%43%36%20%
Share of gross value addPer cent
Average LCOE reduction per
year: - 8%
Average growth of total installations per
year: +23%
Increase of gross value add: +28%
Main drivers of growth – Bids and LCOE continue to decrease
Source: GWEC, BNEF H2 2018 Offshore Market Outlook, BNEF LCOE Database Jan 2019
Levelized offshore wind bids,USD/MWh by year of commissioning
Levelized cost of electricity offshore windUSD/MWh
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
140
0
120
200
160
180
220
240 Outlook of
52USD/MWH
by 2030
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Heading in this spaceLCOE for offshore falling more dramatically than for onshore
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Governments to support offshore growth
Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, CarbonTrust, Linklater
Robust permitting
➢ Transparent and reliable permitting process
➢ Alignment of federal, regional and municipal authorities
on responsibilities and processes
➢ Permitting suited for project life time of 25 to 30 years
Legal challenges
➢ Certainty of legal processes and decisions, e. g., use of
technology, safety rules
➢ Reliable processes for Environmental Impact Assessments
Grid availability
➢ Long-term grid planning to guide installation planning
and timelines
➢ Sufficient grid access and grid lines to evacuate offshore
wind energy
Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, Press
Offshore wind in Japan – Status and Outlook
65 65 65 65
565
5
500 500 500
2017
0
2018 2020e2019e 2021e
0
2022e 2023e
1.065
1.565
0
Total installations
New installations
New offshore installations and total installations,GW and per cent
Policy• Government approved bill to designate wind zones for offshore
development.
• Bill is expected to be in effect in April 2019, designating zones could
take up to 10 months
• Tenders could take place by mid 2020
• Structure for contract award currently being decided by committee
• Current FiT very high by global standards
IndustryTEPCO
• Plans to develop 6 to 7GW renewables with focus on offshore wind in
Japan and outside of Japan
• MoU with Ørsted to work jointly on offshore projects, esp. Choshi (200
MW, COD 2025)
Northland Power, EON
• Establishing Tokyo offices to work on projects, other developers are
doing the same
J-Power
• MoU with French utility Engie for offshore wind projects, incl. floating,
other global investments
MHI-Vestas
Strong presence through Mitsubishi. So far sales and manufacturing have
been concentrated in Europe/Taiwan. SGRE, Senvion also active
Large feasible potential for fixed
bottom offshore
Key market to develop floating
offshore
Key Issues for Japan - 1
Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, CarbonTrust, Linklater
Policy &
Regulation
Cost
➢ Current FiT is equal to €290/MWh since 2014
➢ Huge gap between Japan and international prices
➢ Need to work to avoid “Japan cost” that will limit
industry development and discredit technology and
provide arguments for fossil and nuclear industry, as well
as create unsustainable fiscal burden
➢ Price digression path needs to be set sensibly
➢ Setting an ambitious target will give strong signal to industry
and incumbents
➢ Zone designation is positive move – important to keep to
timeline
➢ Contract award through auction/beauty contest?
➢ Other criteria – “harmonized development” with local
governments, local content (?) – transparency is key
➢ Awarding body – how METI manages this is decisive.
Functional committee structure with professional staff is
essential
Key Issues for Japan - 2
Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, CarbonTrust, Linklater
Permitting and
Stakeholder
Management
➢ Management of EIA process for onshore has been
extremely slow (3-4 years for relatively small projects)
➢ Need for single dynamic agency managing overall
process
➢ Perceived veto ability of stakeholders at different stages
➢ Stakeholders must be managed effectively and buy in
achieved
Grid
➢ Current system is first come first serve – will not work for
Offshore Wind
➢ Grid expansions will be necessary, current
interconnection between regions is limited
➢ Need for effective unbundling and national TSO with
strong mandate from government
Turbines, supply
chain, ports
➢ Turbines need to be robust to deal with
typhoons, earthquakes
➢ Local supply chain needs to be developed
➢ Port development needs to take place
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Offshore wind – two scenarios…
• Offshore wind is a golden chance for Japan to create economical zero carbon energy and
increase its energy independence
• But to achieve this, it needs to let the wind industry build and grow
• The danger is that to much complexity is created, which will keep volumes small, prices high
and allow incumbent energy interests to prevail
• But if the government has the courage to seize the opportunity and get the right frameworks
in place, offshore wind can be built quickly, economically and at large scale, helping to
create economic growth, employment and new skills.
This is too good an opportunity for Japan to miss!
Rue d’Arlon 80
1040 Brussels,Belgium
T. +32 2 213 18 97
www.gwec.net
Thank you!For more information please contact:
Ben Backwell I [email protected]