GLOBALIZ

ATIO

N IS

RAPIDLY

CHANGIN

G OUR

LIVES

SI X

DY

NA

MI C

GL O

BA

L FO

RC

ES

OF T

HE

21

ST C

EN

T UR

Y

©2 0 1 5 D

R.

ST E

PH

EN

HA

RT M

AN

FIRST GLOBAL FORCEECONOMIC ACTIVITY IS SHIFTING TO

EMERGING NATIONS

• By 2025 Half of the World’s Large Companies Will Come from Emerging Markets Creating New Competition.

• China Will be Home to More Large Companies than Either the U.S. or Europe.

• From 2003 to 2013 China’s E-Tail Market Has Been Growing 105% Annually Compared to Just 16% for the U.S., and Is Now The World’s Largest.

• Population growth has been heavily driven by rapid urbanization in China and India.

• By 2030, Almost Six Hundred Million People With Annual Incomes Greater Than $20k/Annually Will Live In Emerging Markets – Roughly 60% of the Global Total.

• By 2100, over 80% of the world will live in Africa or Asia

• The Vast Majority of these People Will Reside in Emerging Cities and be Engaged in the Global Economy.

• Worldwide 30-50% of the Working Age Population Currently Is Either Unemployed or Underemployed.

• The Global Urban Population Will be Rising by an Average of Sixty-Five Million People Annually – Equivalent to Adding 7 Chicagos Every Year or the Entire Population of the United Kingdom!

• Higher Education is Crucial for Economic Development and Employment, and Most Universities Will be Located in Urban Settings.

• Urban Dynamics Creates Higher Salaries and Higher Living Costs.

SECOND GLOBAL FORCEACCELERATING TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE

• In the 1960s 100,000 Telephone Operators Were Replaced by a Computerized Dial Tone in the US Alone. This Was One of The First Societal Impacts of the Newly Emerging Digital Age.

• Uber Destroyed the Taxi Business Model in One Year Using Smartphones, and Says China Will Be Its Largest Market.

• There Is a Worldwide Shortage of Almost 1 Million Workers For Cybersecurity Positions With Average Salaries Over $100,000.

• Robotic Machines Are More Productive than Humans, and Will Increase in Productivity as Technology Advances.

• With Each Advance in Robot Capability, it Becomes More Difficult to Justify Employing People.

• Factories Now Use Robots Extensively, and Pay Those People Who Can Program and Repair Them The Largest Salaries Because They are the Most Difficult to Find.

• Driverless Cars, “Autonomous Vehicles”, Are Well Underway. Auto Insurance Companies Are Concerned Because There Will Be Fewer Accidents Causing Lower Rates.

• It Took 38 Years Before Radio Had 50 Million Listeners, While it Took Twitter Just 9 Months.

• If Your Job Is Repetitive, It Will Be Replaced Digitally.

• One Outcome of Raising the Minimum Wage to $15/Hour Will Be to Digitize the Job.

• We Are Witnessing a Globalized Digital Revolution That is Affecting All Aspects of Human, Business, and Educational Activity.

• 45% of American Jobs – From Truck Driving to Retail Sales – Could be Filled by Robots Using Technology That Is Already Available.

• We May Have to Change the Name of Labor Day to Robot Day. Could They Even Become Citizens?

• We May Have to Create Our Own Jobs Based on Creative Intelligence.

THIRD GLOBAL FORCETHE CHALLENGES OF AN AGING WORLD

• The World’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) Has Dropped By About Half, From 5.0 Children Per Woman In 1950-1955 To 2.5 Children Per Woman In 2010-2015. (UN)

• Global Experience Suggests That As Nations Grow Wealthier, Fertility Rates Drop.

• While Worldwide Fertility Rates Are Declining, Life Expectancy Is Increasing.

• The Median Age in China is About Thirty-Seven, Roughly the Same As the United States.

• The Number of Chinese Aged Fifty-Five or Older is Likely to Rise to More than 43 percent in 2030 from 26 Percent Today.

• The Chinese Refer to Their Impending Aging Challenge as the “4:2:1 problem.” Every Adult Child Today Must Care for Two Parents and Four Grandparents.

• By 2040, China Could Have More Dementia Patients Than the Rest of the Developed World Combined.

• The Proportion Of Younger Employees To Older Will Steadily Diminish.

• Losing Older Qualified Workers Can Be a Major Challenge Since They Have Extensive Experience, and Will Be Difficult to Replace.

• Part of the Problem in Greece is the High Percentage of Retired Individuals Who Are Totally Dependent on the Pension System That the Country Cannot Afford.

• 38% of the Greek Population Is 55 Years of Age and Over with 1.34 Births Per Woman – One of the Lowest in the World.

• Businesses Must Adapt as Their Customers and Employees Age.

• The Healthcare Industry Will Flourish as the Population Ages, but They Will Lose Many of Their Most Experienced Healthcare Workers as They Also Age.

• Marketing to Seniors Opens Up a Whole New Market Segment Including Housing, Recreation, and Healthcare.

FOURTH GLOBAL FORCETRADE, PEOPLE, FINANCE AND DATA

• One of the Most Impressive Pieces of Trade Data is that International Exports With All Nations Grew 67% from 2009 to 2013 to $52 Trillion Despite the Financial Crash of 2008.

• At the Present Time There Are Approximately 500 Bilateral and Multilateral Trade Agreements Between Nations.

• Additionally the United States Created NAFTA with Mexico and Canada in 1994.

• The Transpacific Trade Partnership (TPP) has Just Been Approved by Congress.

• The WTO Was Created in 1995 and Has 161 Members Including China, Russia, and the U.S.

• The Purpose of all of These Trade Agreements is to Reduce or Eliminate Tariffs and Trade Restraints.

• Of Course, Another Trade Stimulant is E-Commerce Digitization Through eBay, Amazon, and Alibaba.

• Over 70% of eBay’s Sales Are Exported.

• More Than 750,000 International Students Currently Study in the U.S., 200,000 more than in 2006.

• The Internet Is One of the Most Important Elements of International Trade.

• The Smartphone Using the Internet Has Created an Avalanche of International Communication and Trade.

• Using an Easily Created Website a Small Businessperson Can Open an International “Store” that is open for Business 24/7 Using a Transaction Cart That Accepts Credit Cards.

• Because of Computerized Data Centers “Cloud” Data is Accessible in Any Part of the World in Nanoseconds.

FIFTH GLOBAL FORCEGLOBAL INSECURITY

• For the First Time in World History We Live in a Real Time World Because of Globalized Digitization.

• However, In Addition to All The Benefits, it Causes Massive Global Insecurity.

• Today We Have Cyber Warfare Where Nation States, Corporations, and Individuals Use Our Information Destructively.

• This Threat Grows Greater Every Day Utilizing “Big Data” Stored in the “Cloud” as well as On Personal and Corporate Computers.

• The Demand for Cyber Security Experts is Growing at 3.5 Times the Pace of the Overall IT Job Market.

• We Are Experiencing Massive Geopolitical Events Including Isis, Russia, Iran, and Greece, Which Utilize Social Media to Spread Information, Recruit, and Contribute to Terrorism.

SIXTH GLOBAL FORCEHUGE SOVEREIGN DEBT

• Greece is a Small Scale Indication of a Growing Worldwide Debt Disaster.

• Currently There Are 38 Sovereign Nations, Including the U.S., Which Have Huge Exponentially Growing Debt.

• US State Pension Funds Face a $2 Trillion Hole – (Moodys).

• Seven years after the bursting of a global credit bubble resulted in the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, debt continues to grow. In fact, rather than reducing indebtedness, or deleveraging, all major economies today have higher levels of borrowing relative to GDP than they did in 2007.

• Fueled by real estate and shadow banking, China’s total debt has nearly quadrupled, rising to $28 trillion by mid-2014, from $7 trillion in 2007. At 282 percent of GDP, China’s debt as a share of GDP, while manageable, is larger than that of the United States or Germany. (McKinsey Institute)

• This Could Be the Fuse Starting Our Next Financial Crisis. Nobody Knows What to Do About It? Do you?

Thank you!

Questions??