Globalism, Populism and Security ; What Role for European ... · Globalism, Populism and Security ;...
Transcript of Globalism, Populism and Security ; What Role for European ... · Globalism, Populism and Security ;...
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Globalism,PopulismandSecurity;WhatRoleforEuropeanCulturalPolicy?
ICPP3SingaporeJune27-9th2017
RichardHiggoI,PhD,FRSA,FAcSS
ProfessorEmeritusofInternaMonalPoliMcalEconomyUniversityofWarwick
andDisMnguishedProfessorofDiplomacy
VesaliusCollegeandResearchProfessor,InsMtuteofEuropeanStudies
VrijeUniversiteitBrussel
“ThispanelisproducedintheframeworkoftheEL-CSIDproject,whichhasreceivedfundingfromtheEuropeanUnion’sHorizon2020researchandinnovaFonprogrammeundergrantagreementNo693799.Thepaperpresentedreflectonlytheauthors’view,andtheResearch
ExecuFveAgencyisnotresponsibleforanyusethatmaybemadeoftheinformaFonitcontains.”
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TheContemporaryGlobalDistemper:andtheLimitstoInterna8onalCoopera8on
• DefiniMon:Distemper—toxicvirus• HowwegoverntheglobalpoliMcalandeconomicorderisinneedofdramaMcrethinking.
• PutasfourquesMonsweneedtoask:– HowdoweaccountforthegrowthofradicalpopulismandnaMonalism(thepopulistnaMonalistzeitgeist-PNZ)?
– HowdisrupMveisitsinfluenceonaconsensusdriveninsMtuMonmulMlateralorder?
– Canthesystemofrulemaking,collecMveacMonproblemsolvingandcollecMvesecuritybuiltacerWWIIbereformedandmadefitforpurposeinthefaceofthepopulistandnaMonalistonslaught?
– Whatroledoes/can"CulturalDiplomacy"play?
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Part1
ExplainingtheRiseofPopulismandNaMonalismandtheChallengeto
Globalism
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FromFrederickHayektoDonaldTrump:theRiseandFalloftheNeo-LiberalEra?
• Hayek’sTheConsFtuFonofLiberty(1960)settheagendaforNeo-Liberalism• WhydidtheAngloAmericanspherebuyintoitforthelast40+years?
– The‘leadership’ofRonaldReaganandMargaretThatcher– Howdoweaccountforthehegemonyofneo-classicaleconomics?
• Whywerethe‘free’marketandtheEfficientMarketHypothesisreified?• WhywasgovernmentandregulaMonvilifiedanddismissed?• Whywasgrowinginequalitydismissedasanirrelevance?• Whydidweturnablindeyetocorporateexcessandirresponsibility?
• WhyarethelargesecMonsofthepopulaMonsoftradiMonalliberaldemocraMccountriesinrevoltagainstglobalisaMon?– Whyis‘populism’andnaMonalismontherise?– AreBrexitandtheelecMonofDonaldTrumptheendorjustthebeginning?
• AreNeo-liberalism’schickens,especiallyposttheGFCof2008,finallycominghometoroost?(eventheIMFnowthinksthetheorywasflawed)
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Implica8onsofPopulismforGovernance1
• ConfidenceintheprobityandcompetenceofpoliMcal,businessandglobaladministraMveeliteshasbeenchallenged---especiallyacer2008GFCandinthe2016USPresidenMalelecMon.– PopulismchallengesamajorassumpMonsofliberaldemocracy:namelythesocialcontractbetweentheciMzenandthestate.• DemocracyisegalitarianinaspiraMon• Capitalismisin-egalitarianinoutcome• ThisisOKwhilecapitalismgeneratesbenefitsforall• ButifcapitalismnolongergeneratesmaterialimprovementthenthesocialbondbetweentheciMzenandthestatecan,anddoes,wither
– Unequaloutcomescanspurauthoritarianismandplutocracy– DemocracybecomesunsustainableandcapitalismillegiMmate– Trumpa‘pluto-populist’(Wolf)
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Implica8onsofPopulismforGovernance2
• PopulistchargeagainstglobalisaMonnotwithoutsubstance– Itdoesgiverisetoadetachedecono-poliMcalplutocracy– ItdoesplacelimitaMononnaMonaldemocracies– ItdoesunderminesovereigndecisionmakingabiliMesofstates– Theseare,orshouldbe,genuineissuesofconcernforciMzens
• ButPopulism– IsfundamentallyanM-democraMc– GivesrisetoTrumpism,BrexiMsmandilliberaldemocraciesandplebiscitarydemocracies—paceRussiaandTurkey
– TapstheworstracistinsMnctsofthewhiteworkingclasses– Contagioneffecteg.LePenisminFrance,theAfDinGermany,OrbanisminHungary.WildersFreedomPartyinNetherlands
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DemocracyandtheOpenEconomy:TheNeedforLiberalPluralismtoCombatthePopulists
• LiberaldemocracyasapoliFcalvisionmustretakecontroloftheglobalisaMonnarraMvefromneo-classicaleconomics(itsintellectualhandmaidens)– Neo-liberaleconomic’srigidadherencetopuristfreetradeorthodoxy,failing
toadmitaneedforcorrecMvesupportforworkersinsunsetindustries,hasprovidedammuniMonforadvocatesoftheworstkindsofprotecMonism
– LackofhonestyabouttradehasgivenitabadreputaMonitdoesnotdeserve– Tradeoffersmassiveglobalwelfaregainsbutnoteveryonebenefits.There
areunevendistribuMonaleffects,especiallyinthesunsetindustriesinthemostadvancedeconomies.
– GoodpublicpolicycancorrectfordistribuMonaleffectsifHayekianideologyandeconomic’ssearchforscienMficpurityandtheoreMcalperfecMondoesnotimpedeameasuredliberalpoliFcalcaseforaddressingmal-distribuMon
• IsTrumpismthelastwakeupcallforLiberaldemocracy?
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Resis8ngPopulism:WhatistobeDone?• Don’tpanic.Itsnottheapocalypse.But:
– NaMonalsocieMesaredividedanddemocraciesweakened.– Inequality(naMonallyandglobally)isabigissue.– ItaIacksthesocialbondbetweenciMzensandthestate– PoliMcalandeconomicelitesmustlearnfromtheirmistakes
• LiberalDemocracymustfightback– PopulismisasmuchselfindulgentpoliMcalfashionaseconomicreality– Liberals(centerlec¢erright)mustputtheirpoliMcalhousesinorder– Xenophobiaandonslaughtagainstglobalopennessmustberesisted– The‘Trumpenproletariat’mustnotbelosttodemocracy.Itmustbe
reengagedbythepoliMcalcentreintheUSAandEurope,• PoliMcianswhoignoretheselessonswillbeheldaccountable.
– GlobalisaMondoesneedreform– WeneedtoensurethatordinaryciMzens,notjusttheplutocracybenefit
fromglobalisaMonorareatleastprotectedfromitsworstexcesses.– Weneedtore-writetherulesoftheglobaleconomyonceagain– WeneedtoensureminimumlevelsofnaMonalsovereigncontrol
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GlobalOrderandCooperaMon• InsMtuMonalinfrastructureofthepostWWII—especiallythe
BreIonWoodsinsMtuMonsandtheWTO—weakenedbynaMonalismasinstrumentsofglobalpolicycoordinaMon.This:– De-stabilisesdelicategeopoliMcalandgeo-strategicbalancesinEuropeandAsia
– Createsnew“GreatGame”onagaininEurasia– SeesUSasnolonger""self-bindinghegemon
• Keyglobalpolicyareas—security,trade,finance,climateandenvironment,development—involveagreaterpluralityofboIomup/topdown,endogenous/exogenousandpublic/privateinteracMonswithlimitedworkinginsMtuMonalstructure
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Resis8ngPopulismandNa8onalism:2CheersforMul8lateralIns8tu8ons
• WhydoweneedmulMlateralinsMtuMonalism?Because:– InsMtuMonslowertransacMonscostsbytheprovisionandsharingofinformaMon
– InsMtuMonscanreduceuncertaintyinpolicy-making– InsMtuMonscanhelpmakepromisescredible– InsMtuMonscanfacilitatedeal-making– InsMtuMonscanenhancecompliance
• MulMlateralismdoesnotundermineindividualstatesovereignty• Rather,mulMlateralinsMtuMonscanenhancenaMonaldemocraMc
processesinanumberofimportantways:– ByrestricMngthepowerofspecialinterestfacMons– ByprotecMngindividualrights– ByimprovingthequalityofdemocraMcdeliberaMon,– ByincreasingcapaciMestoachieveimportantpublicpolicy
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Whattodointhefaceofthepopulistna8onalistzeitgeist?
• DemocraMcstatesmustgoontheoffensive.Theyneedto:– Re-bootthesocialcontractbetweenstateandsociety– Supportthemarketeconomybutresistmarketfundamentalism– Rebuildthe‘embeddedliberalcompromise’(Ruggie)– PracMcewelfareKeynesianismathome,Smithianliberalismabroad– Buildsystems,compromisesandincenMvesthatreconcilecapitalismwithmassdemocracy,notelitedemocracy.
– Re-affirmlegiMmacyofinternaMonal,rulesbased,normsandregulatoryregimesinthefaceofpressurefromthepowerfulandanM-democraMclobbies—especiallyfromthefinancialsector.
– Re-affirmtheprinciplesofcollecMveacMonproblemsolvingembodiedinthemulMlateralinsMtuMons• EspeciallytheUNIMF,WorldBank,WTOandthenewerinsMtuMonssuchastheAIIBandtheBRICSNDB
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WhattoDoAbouttheUSAunderTrump?
• Notalottobedonebuthopeforthebestandplanfortheworst• Ifthelong20thcenturyiscomingtoanenditcouldbevery
disrupMve—economicallyandpoliMcally—theUScouldsititout– NolawforcestheUStoacceptglobalresponsibility.Itsatoutthe1920sand1930swhiletherestoftheworldcollapsed.
• Itcouldtrytodothesameagain.– Butunlikethe1920s-30s,USgeographyandwealthnolongerinsulateitfromexigenciesofglobaleconomicandpoliMcalcalamity.
– Itspowerthenwasabsolute.Nowitisnot.– TherewasnoresurgentRussia,norisingChinaandIndiaandnoothermajoreconomicandnuclearplayers
– ThereisnolongertermexitopMonthisMme– ButwhiletheUSremains,the‘indispensiblenaMon’muchdamagecouldbedoneintheshortterm
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PART2:AEUROPEANCONTEXT
ThatWasThen,Thisisnow
FromtheEuropeanSecurityStrategy(2004)toShared
Vision,CommonAc:on:AStrongerEurope(2016)
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WayBackWhen:TheIni8alproposi8on• Thinkbacktothe2003EUSecurityStrategyPaper.Itwas:– OpMmisMcandupbeataboutEuropeasasecurityactor– Aself-congratulatory,smugeven,viewof‘normaMvepowerEurope’inagrowingmulM/tri-polarworldinwhichtheEUwouldbeoneof3majorplayers
• ‘Socpower’seenasmajortoolinthepursuitofexternalrelaMons– TheEU,assumingitwasalreadyadept,wouldbecomeevenbeIeratpracMcingsocpower
– EUsocio-economic-culturalstrengths(democraMcvalues,superioreconomicintegraMonmodel,enlightenmentculture,commitmenttorulesbasedinternaMonalorder)wereonaroll.
– AllwerevaluesforexporttomaketheworldabeIerplaceandwouldprojectaposiMveexternalimagefortheEU
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Butthisnow.Howtheworldchanges• 2ndsentenceofEUGS(8)‘weliveinMmesofexistenMalcrisis’.• InteraliatheEUfaces:
– ConMnuinglegacyproblemsofglobalfinancialcrisis,– UnresolvedEurozoneproblems– AcermathoffailedArabrevoluMons,terrorismonitsonsoil– RefugeesandmigraMonproblemstheMediterranean– IncreasinglynaMonalistandaggressiveRussia– Growthofpopulism,naMonalismand‘ilIiberaldemocracy’beyond(but
alsowithin)itsborders– UnpredictableUSA,nolongera(self-binding)hegemonbutrather
threateningthe70yearpostWWIIliberalinternaMonalorder– BrexitandallitsimplicaMons(knownandunknown)– BrusselsonthedefensiveoverissuesoflegiMmacyandaccountability
• EU’smemberstatessMllfindithard,atMmesevenundesirable,tooperateacommonpolicyintheinternaMonaldomain.– IniMaMvesinvolvingrecoursetotradiMonalinstrumentsofforeignpolicy
includingforcefulandcoordinateddiplomacy,ocenreflectdivisionsbetweenmemberstatesleadingtosub-opMmalpolicyoutcomes.
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ImplicaMonsofachangingglobalorder• Letsnotpanic.Itsnottheapocalypse(justyet)• ChangesinglobaldistribuMonofpowerarereal,including
– Prospectofanunravelingofbothsecurityandeconomicarchitectures– SkepMcismtowardtheEuropeanprojectunabatedandgrowing– Contradictorydemandsonthosewhowouldmake/implementEUFP
• DifficultroleforEEASconfrontedby(increasing)naMonaldesirestoretainorclawbacknaMonalcontrolsonpolicy.
• EnhancingEU‘hardpower’ineconomicsandsecuritylikelytotakeprecedenceover,oratleast‘crowdout’,policydomainsof‘socpower’suchasculturaldiplomacy(resourceconstraints)
• OpportuniMesofenhancedcoordinaMonincultural(andscience)diplomacy,betweentheEU,theMSandtheirextra-Europeanpartnersbecomemoredifficultastheybecomemoreimportant– Infacttheytakesonaforeignpolicysignificancenotnormally
aIributedtoeithercultureorscienceingeneralorCSDinparMcular.
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PART3:BUTLIFEGOESON
SOFTPOWERANDSECURITY:WHAT’SCULTUREGOTTODO
WITHIT?
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ABitofEuropeanHistory• Abitofhistory--withapologiestohistoriansintheroom• EuropeanAvtudestoNonEuropeanCulture
– Pre18thCentury:Europeanculturalborrowings,followedby‘expropriaMon’,fromnon-Europeancultures(especiallyOIomanEmpire)notuncommon
– 18thand19thCentury:emergenceofacivilisaMonalandteleologicaldiscourseofEuropeanculturalsuperiorityemerged• Corroboratedandbolsteredbymaterialandtechnologicaladvances
– CulturalsuperiorityimposedbyEuropeancolonialism.• PosedasachoicebetweenaccepMngandrejecMng‘progress’• EuropehasatradiMonoftellingotherswhentheyarenotmodernenough,notdemocraMcenoughornotChrisManorsecularenough
• 20thCentury,postcolonialere:posiMveandnegaMveresidueofenforced‘expropriaMon’fromEuropeanculturewithmoderndayimplicaMons– ItisnotunusualforEuropeancultureandideastobenegaMvelyreceived
simplyontheirsourceoforiginratherthantheiruMlity
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LinkingCulture,SecurityandDiplomacy• LimitedandambiguousuMlitytothenoMonof‘socpower’—conceptualstretch
– Someseeitasaeuphemismfor‘nopower’intheareaof‘hardpower’– EvenJoeNyehaslargelyditchedtheterm.Henowfavours‘smartpower’
• ‘Societalsecurity’anequallyambiguousexerciseinconceptualstretching• Butsocietalandculturaldialogueandexchangeareseriouselementsofthe
transnaMonalandtrans-conMnentaldiplomaMcconversaMon,albeitnotasubsMtuteforhardpower– InternaMonalculturalinteracMonandorganisaMonlongagoescapedthe
boundariesofthestate.• SuccessfulCulturediplomacyisintheeyeofthebeholderwhere:
– Influenceandreciprocalknowledgesharinginculturaldiplomacyisnotassured– Culturaldiplomacyinconstantneedofre-mapping&checkingwithrecipients.
• Re-mappingimpliesnotonlyunderstandingwhatwemeanbyculture,butalsothelanguageandothermediumsweusetopromoteit
– Withoutre-mappingoldlegaciesofresentmentwillremainandnewresentmentswilldevelop.
• Evenif‘socpower’reallyexists,badpolicychoicescanquicklydissipateit
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PART4WHATCANBEDONE
THEJOINTCOMMUNIQUÉASA
ROADMAP
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TheEUandCulturalDiplomacy• Tworecentmid2016documents,
(i)JointCommuniquétoEuropeanParliamentandCommission,TowardsanEUStrategyofinternaFonalculturalrelaFons(ii)EuropeanUnionGlobalStrategy(EUGS).
• JCprefers“internaFonalculturalrelaFons”toculturaldiplomacy.– CandidlythisissemanMcobfuscaMonhidingrealagenda—arosebyany
othernameissMllaroseandthoseonthereceivingwillnotbefooled• OnlyreferencetoculturaldiplomacyinEUGScomesatpage49
“Newfieldsofourjoined-upexternalacMonincludeenergy diplomacy,culturaldiplomacyandeconomicdiplomacy”
• EUGSsaysitwillnurture “societalresiliencealsobydeepeningworkoneducaMon,cultureand youthtofosterpluralism,coexistenceandrespect”
• ButmorerealisMcallysays “PuvngourdiversenaMonalculturesattheserviceofourshared interestsisachallenge”Indeeditis!!
• YetevenifdifferencesinnaMonalculturescouldbecontrolledtherewillalwaysbeacoordinaMonproblems(Seeslide16)
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TowardsanEUstrategyforinterna8onalCulturalRela8ons
• 2015,CouncilcalledonCommissiontopreparea‘strategicapproachtocultureintheEU’sexternalrelaMons’
• TheJointCommuniquéistheresponse.Sothegoodnews:EUhasavisionforculturaldiplomacyexplicitlyframedincontextofitsaspiraMontobeglobalactor.NotwithstandingknownobjecMons,andmyowncriMque,Ijudgeitapowerful/persuasivedocument.
• Drivenbyadesireto:– FirstandforemostenhanceEurope’sexternalimageandinfluence.– EnhanceculturaldialoguebetweentheEUandtherestoftheworld– EnhanceEuropeaneconomiccompeMMvenessinanincreasingimportant
areaofinternaMonaltransacMon• But—relevantforthisconference—notewhatitisnot:
– TheJCisnotdrivenbyconcernsof‘societalsecuriMsaMon’althoughimprovedsocietalrelaMonswithinEUmightbeaposiMveexternality.
– WhilereferencetointernaMonalculturalrelaMonsarepresentinEUGS,theyarenot(norshouldtheybe)atthecentreofthenewstrategy.
– TheEUGStalksaboutsocietal‘resilience’andtheroleofcultureinsecuringit.Butitdoessoina‘catchall’non-specificandnon-policytargetedmanner.
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CulturalDiplomacy:‘abeau8fulbutetherealproject’
• InvariousspeechesHRMogherinihasreferredtoEuropeas– A‘culturalsuperpower’– Andculturaldiplomacyasanimportantforeignpolicytool
• BothsuggesMonsmayindeedbeempiricallyaccurate.BUT:– ThefirststatementissomethingofadiplomaMcfolly– ThesecondstatementignorestheinauspiciousMmingoflaunchofthecommuniqué:2weeksbeforeBrexitand3weeksbeforeEUGS
• EUisaglobalactorcurrentlybesetbycrisesofconfidenceandidenMtythatengulfitataMmeofunprecedentedanddiminishedglobalexpectaMoncomparedwithjustadecadeago.
• EUinterestinculturaldiplomacyseemstobeanaIempttooffsetalossofidenMtyandglobalaspiraMon.
• ButthingshavemovedsincetheopMmisMcdaysoftheearlytheC21st.• EndeavoringtomakethebestofassetssuchasEurope’sculture
becomesacrucialinstrumentofpolicyandisindeedraMonal.• ButassumpMonsthatEUculturaldiplomacycanmiMgateitsdeclining
influencevis-a-visthetradiMonalhegemon,theUSA,andtherisingglobalforceofEastAsiaispieMsMcratherthananalyMc.
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TheDifficul8esofCulturalDiplomacy
• Culturaldiplomacy,EUledorMSled,willalwaysbedifficult.– Targetaudiences,especiallytheMiddleEastanddevelopingcountrieswill
alwaystreatculturaldiplomacywithsuspicion.• Problemislessthesubstance,virtueandpromulgaMonofwestern
culturalvaluesperseratherthanthe‘norms-as-pracMces’thatwouldbenecessaryfortheirtrans-naMonaldelivery
• Sharedculturalvaluesdonotnecessarilyamounttoacommon‘Europeanculturalpersona’thatcanbeabasisforculturaldiplomacy
• Tosuggesttheycan,assomeofthemoreasserMvebrandsofEuropeannormaMvepowerdo,isatbestfoolhardy,atworstethnocentricallyarrogant.– HencetheasserMonthatEuropeisa‘culturalsuperpower’isinept.Inmyjudgment.Itisastatementthatshouldnotberepeated.
– Self-idenMficaMonasa‘superpower’isnotanoMonthatlendsitselftotheimprovementofinternaMonalculturalrelaMons.
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CONCLUSIONS
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1:TheLimitsofculturaldiplomacy• IftheEU’smessagetootherpeoplesisthatEuropeanculturalvaluesarepivotal
tothepeacefulfuncMoningofinternaMonalsocietyitisamessagethatisprobablydesMnedtofallondeafearsinthecontemporaryera.
• ItisaskingtoomuchofthoseEuropeansocio-culturalvaluesdevelopedsincetheEnlightenment—andespeciallyadesireonthepartofsometoexportliberaleconomicvalues,poliMcaldemocraMcvaluesandtheprogressivegrowthofhumanrights—toexpectthattheyshouldbeuniversalisableintheC21st.
• Indeed,theyarenolongeraxiomaMcallyuniversalisableacrosstheAtlanMceven.ThedominanttrendisintheoppositedirecMon—populism,naMonalismandilliberaldemocracy(bothinsideandoutsidetheUnion).
• ThisisnotanargumentforculturalrelaMvism.NoracriMqueofEuropeanvalues• WhileEUstrategy’sstatedculturalaimistopromotediversity,themostlikely
readingtobetakenbeyondtheborderoftheEU,isthatitsrealaimistopromotetheEUinthecontemporaryglobalsearchforinfluence—especiallyvisavistheUSAandChina.
• Thereisnothingwrongwithsuchastrategy.ButtheEUneedstotreadverysoclywiththirdcountriesifitisnottogenerateabacklash
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2:IntotheUnkown• ThereisacrisisofinternaMonalcollecMveacMonproblemsolving.– EspeciallyinSecurity,EconomyandtheEnvironment
• InsMtuMonalcooperaMon(globalgovernance)isatradeoffbetween:(i)theeffecMveandefficientprovisionofpublicgoodsand(ii)representaMon,accountability,legiMmacyandsovereignty.
• GevngthebalancesrightremainsachargedpoliMcalquesMon.– ItisaquesMonwemustaddressifwearetosecurethesemblanceofaposiMveglobalcooperaMveorder.
– Aclichébut:theeconomyisglobalbutpoliMcsremainslocal– Globalelitesmustlearnfromtheirmistakes– PopulismandNaMonalismneedstobeconfrontedifneo-liberalism'snottobereplacedbyneo-naMonalism?
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3:OpportunityCosts,CrowdingOutandResources
• WhilerhetoriconenhancingEUculturalrelaMonsisstrong(atleastinBrussels)thelikelihoodofconcreteoutcomes—especiallyinMSwithstrongtradiMonsofculturaldiplomacy—shouldnotbeoveresMmated.– EUhasonly‘supporMngcompetence’inculturaldiplomacy(Art6,TFEU).A
coordinaMonproblemisomni-presentinBrusselsacrossthepolicyspectrum– ItisreflectedinculturaldiplomacyintheambiguityexpressedintheJointCommuniqué
toEUacMonsviatheEEASandtheseparatestrategiesoftheMS.• ‘Crowdingout’isalwaysapossibilityinapackedexternalrelaMonsagenda.
Culturaldiplomacy,alongwitheconomicdiplomacyandenergydiplomacyare‘newfieldsofjoined-upexternalacMon’(2016:49)inEUGS.Butitisverypossiblethatolder,moretradiMonalprioriMeswillremain,andgrow,elsewhere.
• InaTrumpianworldwecanexpectsecuritywillbecomethepriorityandresourcepressurestomeetmilitaryobligaMonswillbecomeacute.
• ItwillbeinteresMngtoobserveoverthenextfewyearsthedegreetowhichculturaldiplomacycanreallybe,inMogherini’sownwords,‘…atthecoreofourforeignpolicy’.Youcouldsay,fautdemieux,ithastobe.
• Youmightnotthinkit,butIamafan.Iwishherwell.ButIamnotopMmisMc.