Global Water Resources: Human and Climate Impacts over the 21st Century · 2019-09-27 · decline...

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Global Water Resources: Human and Climate Impacts over the 21st Century MOHAMAD HEJAZI ON BEHALF OF PNNL TEAM THE JOINT GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH INSTITUTE PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORY COLLEGE PARK, MARYLAND September 27, 2018

Transcript of Global Water Resources: Human and Climate Impacts over the 21st Century · 2019-09-27 · decline...

Page 1: Global Water Resources: Human and Climate Impacts over the 21st Century · 2019-09-27 · decline over the 21st century in groundwater depletion Importance of understanding the interlinkages

Global Water Resources: Human and Climate

Impacts over the 21st Century

MOHAMAD HEJAZI ON BEHALF OF PNNL TEAM

THE JOINT GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH INSTITUTE

PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORY

COLLEGE PARK, MARYLAND

September 27, 2018

Page 2: Global Water Resources: Human and Climate Impacts over the 21st Century · 2019-09-27 · decline over the 21st century in groundwater depletion Importance of understanding the interlinkages

Research questions

How will climate change

impact water availability

and scarcity in the future?

How will the coevolution

of water-energy-land-

climate-economy systems

affect water scarcity and

groundwater depletion

rates across the globe?

What are the relative

contributions of climate

and human systems on

water scarcity regionally

and globally? Socioeconomics

Mitigation policies

Climate impacts

Adaptation

Regulations

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Future Changes in Mean Precipitation

Changes in precipitation in a warming world will not be uniform.

High latitudes and the equatorial Pacific are likely to experience an

increase in annual mean precipitation by the end of this century under the

RCP8.5 scenario.

Many mid-latitude and subtropical dry regions, mean precipitation will

likely decrease, while in many mid-latitude wet regions, mean precipitation

will likely increase under the RCP8.5 scenario

RCP8.5RCP2.6

AR5: Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report

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Climate impact on water supplies

Ensemble model simulation with 11 global hydrological models (GHMs), 5 global climate models (GCMs) under RCP 8.5 emission scenarios

Schewe et al. (2014; PNAS)

Relative change in annual discharge at 2 oC

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Ensemble model simulation with 11 global hydrological models (GHMs), 5 global climate models (GCMs) under RCP 8.5 emission scenarios

Schewe et al. (2014; PNAS)

Relative change in annual discharge at 3 oC

Climate impact on water supplies

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Uncertainty is comparable between

hydrologic and climate models

Ratio of GCM variance to total variance

GHM variance predominates

GCM variance predominates

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But what about humans? How much water

human expect to demand?

Based on Shiklomanov, I., IWRA Water International Vol 25 (1), March 2000

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Geography of water scarcity today

A quarter of the world’s people live in areas characterized by physical

water scarcity. One billion live in basins that face economic scarcity.

Source: Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) and Stockholm International Water Institute (SIWI)

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And we are increasingly depleting our

groundwater resources/reserves

Konikow et al. (2011)

Groundwater depletion

• Water supplies and demands are variable in space & time and are generally out of phase

• Dependence on non-traditional water sources (depletablegroundwater, desalinated water, water reuse, etc.)

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Population projections over the 21st century under

the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)

Source: KC and Lutz 2017

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Projections of Water-Energy-Land Systems

over the 21st Century

ENERGY AGRICULTURE

WATER

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Relative change in human water

consumption

12

2100 – 2010; SSP2 Wada and Bierkens (2014; ERL)

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The future could unfold in many different

ways - Global primary energy by fuel

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Mitigating climate change might increase water

scarcity: Avoiding unintended consequences!!!

14

Annual county

scale surface water

deficit as a fraction

of demand

Hejazi et al. (2015). PNAS

Water deficit is projected to increase more with climate change mitigation that favors biomass

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Climate change also impacts water demands

in many ways

Energy DemandIncreases in electricity demand,

decreases in natural gas demand

Hydropower Changes in production of hydropower

Thermal Power Decreases in thermal power production

AgricultureChanges in productivity of land,

bioenergy supply, crop production, carbon

sequestration

Water SupplyChanges in water availability (globally

and regionally)

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Quantifying climate impact on

water withdrawals

• A wide range of water withdrawals driven by the 5 SSPs• Mitigation generally leads to higher water withdrawals• Uncertainty in human system is far larger than in climate

Global water withdrawals under different SSPs/RCPs with/without climate impacts

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Humans play a larger role in affecting water

scarcity conditions in the future

Distribution of positive (reducing water scarcity) and negative (worsening water scarcity) impacts by climate (C) and human (H) systems by basin

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Is groundwater no longer a viable backstop technology to solve the water scarcity problem in the 21st century?

Annual global groundwater depletion rate (km3 year-1) for 900 GCAM simulations, with the distributions of the time to peak, and the peak annual groundwater depletion rate during the 21st century.

Glo

bal

gro

un

dw

ater

dep

leti

on

Probability that groundwater annual rate of depletion peaks and declines in the 21st

century at the basin level (based on 900 simulations).

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We present six strategies, or water-stress wedges, that collectively lead to a reduction in the population affected by water stress by 2050, despite an increasing population. - Water productivity – crop per drop- Irrigation efficiency – decrease losses- Water use intensity – industry and domestic- Population- Reservoir storage- Desalination

Wada et al. (2014), Nature Geoscience

Soft path vs. Hard path

Reducing water scarcity possible by 2050

Different basins lend themselves to different measures for reducing water stress

Page 20: Global Water Resources: Human and Climate Impacts over the 21st Century · 2019-09-27 · decline over the 21st century in groundwater depletion Importance of understanding the interlinkages

Final remarks

Climate change will impact water availability and scarcity conditions in the future (overall wetter, but with winners and losers)

Climate also impacts water demands both directly and indirectly

Humans dominate the water scarcity signal in most regions

Groundwater resources won’t last forever – we are likely to see a peak and decline over the 21st century in groundwater depletion

Importance of understanding the interlinkages between water and other systems (e.g., land, energy, economy) to understand the risks associated with future water scarcity conditions and to avoid unintended consequences when devising policies to achieve climate goals and SDGs.

Some possible solutions to cope with the growing water scarcity problem (yield gap, technological change, irrigation efficiencies, trade, storage)

Page 21: Global Water Resources: Human and Climate Impacts over the 21st Century · 2019-09-27 · decline over the 21st century in groundwater depletion Importance of understanding the interlinkages

Thank you!

Mohamad I. Hejazi, Ph.D.

Research ScientistJoint Global Change Research Institute

Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryUniversity of Maryland, College Park5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500College Park, MD [email protected]

http://www.globalchange.umd.edu/
mailto:[email protected]

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