Global Warming: The Problem and Potential Solutionseesi/scs/Christopher.pdfThe Problem and Potential...

21
Global Warming: The Problem and Potential Solutions Charles Christopher BP Upstream Technology Group Houston

Transcript of Global Warming: The Problem and Potential Solutionseesi/scs/Christopher.pdfThe Problem and Potential...

Page 1: Global Warming: The Problem and Potential Solutionseesi/scs/Christopher.pdfThe Problem and Potential Solutions ... 15 20 25 30 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 ... 2 emissions

Global Warming:The Problem and Potential

Solutions

Charles ChristopherBP

Upstream Technology Group Houston

Page 2: Global Warming: The Problem and Potential Solutionseesi/scs/Christopher.pdfThe Problem and Potential Solutions ... 15 20 25 30 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 ... 2 emissions

Ice Cores Capture Atmospheric History

Page 3: Global Warming: The Problem and Potential Solutionseesi/scs/Christopher.pdfThe Problem and Potential Solutions ... 15 20 25 30 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 ... 2 emissions

150

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-450000 -400000 -350000 -300000 -250000 -200000 -150000 -100000 -50000 0 50000Age of Air, kyr BP

CO

2 C

onc,

ppm

vHistorical CO2 Levels

Keeling Data

200

250

300

350

400

Preindustrial Level

Current Level: 370ppm

Vostok Ice Core Data

Page 4: Global Warming: The Problem and Potential Solutionseesi/scs/Christopher.pdfThe Problem and Potential Solutions ... 15 20 25 30 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 ... 2 emissions

The Greenhouse Effect

Page 5: Global Warming: The Problem and Potential Solutionseesi/scs/Christopher.pdfThe Problem and Potential Solutions ... 15 20 25 30 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 ... 2 emissions

The Greenhouse Gases

•Water vapor – responsible for some 60% of the GH effect

•Global Warming Potential• Carbon Dioxide - CO2 – 1• Methane – CH4 – 21• Nitrous Oxide - N2O - 310• Freon 23 - CHF3 – 11,700• Sulfur Hexafluoride - SF6 – 23,900

Page 6: Global Warming: The Problem and Potential Solutionseesi/scs/Christopher.pdfThe Problem and Potential Solutions ... 15 20 25 30 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 ... 2 emissions

Future BAU Emissions Trends(IS92a “Business As Usual” Scenario of IPCC)

• Increase in global energy use/capita, 1997-2100:• For primary energy up 2.0X • For electricity up 2.6X • For “fuels used directly” up 1.4X• Annual global CO2 emissions (not/capita):• Total: 22.7 Gt CO2, 1997(37% coal) 73 Gt CO2, 2100

(88% coal)• From electricity: 7 Gt CO2, 1997 18 Gt CO2, 2100• From fuels used directly: 16 Gt CO2, 1997 55 Gt CO2, 2100

• Cumulative emissions, 1990-2100: 5,500 GtCO2

(about the volume of Lake Michigan)Mt Pinatubo, 1991 eruption = 42 M tonnes CO2

Page 7: Global Warming: The Problem and Potential Solutionseesi/scs/Christopher.pdfThe Problem and Potential Solutions ... 15 20 25 30 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 ... 2 emissions

Potential Consequences of BAUAntarctica

• Sea Level Rise – West Antarctic Ice Sheet, Greenland

• ThermohalineCirculation Belt

• Peats in Northern Latitudes

• Methane Hydrates• Severe weather

patterns

Business As Usual

WAIS

This ice is 90 percent of all Earth’s iceand 70 percent of all its fresh water,amounting to about 6 million cubic miles.if it were returned to the oceans, it wouldraise global sea level about 200 feet.

Page 8: Global Warming: The Problem and Potential Solutionseesi/scs/Christopher.pdfThe Problem and Potential Solutions ... 15 20 25 30 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 ... 2 emissions

Potential Consequences of BAU

• Sea Level Rise –• West Antarctic Ice Sheet, Greenland• ThermohalineCirculation Belt• Peats in Northern Latitudes• Methane Hydrates• Severe weather patterns

Page 9: Global Warming: The Problem and Potential Solutionseesi/scs/Christopher.pdfThe Problem and Potential Solutions ... 15 20 25 30 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 ... 2 emissions

Potential Consequences of BAU

• Sea Level Rise – West Antarctic Ice Sheet, Greenland

• ThermohalineCirculation Belt - THC

• Peats in Northern Latitudes

• Methane Hydrates• Severe weather

patternsIn addition to large effects on weather,upwelling may be responsible for 70% of the oceans’biological productivity.

Page 10: Global Warming: The Problem and Potential Solutionseesi/scs/Christopher.pdfThe Problem and Potential Solutions ... 15 20 25 30 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 ... 2 emissions

Potential Consequences of BAU

Russia and Canada alone have more than2.7 million Km2 = 67million acres of peat.

• Sea Level Rise – West Antarctic Ice Sheet, Greenland

• ThermohalineCirculation Belt

• Peats in Northern Latitudes

• Methane Hydrates• Severe weather

patterns

Page 11: Global Warming: The Problem and Potential Solutionseesi/scs/Christopher.pdfThe Problem and Potential Solutions ... 15 20 25 30 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 ... 2 emissions

Business As Usual?

Business As Usual

Stabilize at 500 ppm

Predicted by DOE EIA

Emissions reductions required are the differences between the curves

Page 12: Global Warming: The Problem and Potential Solutionseesi/scs/Christopher.pdfThe Problem and Potential Solutions ... 15 20 25 30 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 ... 2 emissions

Seven Slices of the Stabilization Wedge

After Pacala 2003

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2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Bill

ions

of T

ons

Car

bon

Avo

ided

per

Yea

r

Each Wedge is 25 Gt C avoidedTotal is 175 Gt C avoided

Page 13: Global Warming: The Problem and Potential Solutionseesi/scs/Christopher.pdfThe Problem and Potential Solutions ... 15 20 25 30 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 ... 2 emissions

What Is Required to Achieve a Slice?

Category Global Annual Increment

Total Capacity in 2050

Fuel shifting to replace coal

1) Build 28 GW of gas-fueled plants

1400 GW fueled by gas instead of coal (12% of current total)

Increased energy efficiency

2) Double efficiency of 40 million gas/diesel cars

2 billion gas/diesel cars at 60 mpg rather than 30 mpg

Displace Fossil Fuel in Electricity Gen

3) Wind 1.4x current4) Solar 20x current5) Nuclear 4% current capacity

70x current1000x current; 12x106 acres700 1 GW plants; 2x current cap

Substitute Renewables

6) Biomass 10 million acres7) Hydrogen from nuclear 20 1GW plants

500 x106 acres = all US cropland1000 1GW plants

Forest and soil seq.

8) 35 million acres 1,500 million acres = total area of lower 48

2003 US Fleet Average = 20.8 mpgWorld average 15 cars/1000 pop => 50/1000 by 2020

Page 14: Global Warming: The Problem and Potential Solutionseesi/scs/Christopher.pdfThe Problem and Potential Solutions ... 15 20 25 30 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 ... 2 emissions

What Is Required to Achieve a Slice?

Category Global Annual Increment

Total Capacity in 2050

Carbon Capture and Storage

9) Equip 14 coal plants with CCS

700 1 GW coal plants

10) 70 Sleipners or Weyburns 3,500 Sleipners at 1 Mt CO2/yr

11) Displace 20 million gas/diesel cars with H2 (CO2 free)

1 billion H2 cars (CO2 free) displace 1 billion 30 mpg gas/diesel cars

All achievable with today’s technologyBut these are not the only options!

Page 15: Global Warming: The Problem and Potential Solutionseesi/scs/Christopher.pdfThe Problem and Potential Solutions ... 15 20 25 30 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 ... 2 emissions

CO2 – How to Get It, What to Do With It

PrecombustionDecarbonization

(Hydrogen)

Oxyfuels

CO2Capture

GeologicalStorageCO2 CO2

Page 16: Global Warming: The Problem and Potential Solutionseesi/scs/Christopher.pdfThe Problem and Potential Solutions ... 15 20 25 30 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 ... 2 emissions

Brine Aquifers >1000mCoal (USGS)Oil and Gas (USGS)

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Early sources (IEA data)

U.S. Geologic Storage Potential

Page 17: Global Warming: The Problem and Potential Solutionseesi/scs/Christopher.pdfThe Problem and Potential Solutions ... 15 20 25 30 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 ... 2 emissions

Alabama

ArizonaArkansas

California

Colorado

Connecticut

Delaware

Florida

Georgia

Idaho

Illinois Indiana

Iowa

Kansas Kentucky

Louisiana

Maine

Maryland

Massachusetts

Michigan

Minnesota

Missouri

Montana

NebraskaNevada

New Hampshire

New Jersey

New Mexico

New York

North Carolina

Ohio

Oklahoma

Oregon

Pennsylvania

Rhode Island

South Carolina

South Dakota

Tennessee

Texas

Utah

Vermont

Virginia

Washington

W. Virginia

Wisconsin

Wyoming

North Dakota

Mississippi

McElmo Dome Sheep Mountain

Bravo Dome

Terrell, Puckett,Mitchell, Grey Ranch

Plants

LaBarge

Jackson Dome

Great Plains Coal Plant

CURRENT US CO2 SOURCES and PIPELINESIndustry knows how to handle CO2

1561185 Ft/In

PETRA 12/1/99 10:10:02 AM

Permian Basin Louisiana/Mississippi

CanadianWyoming

X

Page 18: Global Warming: The Problem and Potential Solutionseesi/scs/Christopher.pdfThe Problem and Potential Solutions ... 15 20 25 30 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 ... 2 emissions

Permian Basin CO2 Purchased for EOR

Million Tonnes per Year

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Bravo Dome

Sheep Mtn.

McElmo Dome

Comparable to 2-3 large power plants

Page 19: Global Warming: The Problem and Potential Solutionseesi/scs/Christopher.pdfThe Problem and Potential Solutions ... 15 20 25 30 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 ... 2 emissions

Dept of Energy Regional CO2 Partnerships

11

2233 44

Page 20: Global Warming: The Problem and Potential Solutionseesi/scs/Christopher.pdfThe Problem and Potential Solutions ... 15 20 25 30 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 ... 2 emissions

The Business Case

• If public perceives this problem to be high priority, governments will act

• There will be a value for CO2 at some point due to caps

• Current caps in Europe will affect multinationals in the US and elsewhere

• Those who plan for a carbon constrained future will benefit

Page 21: Global Warming: The Problem and Potential Solutionseesi/scs/Christopher.pdfThe Problem and Potential Solutions ... 15 20 25 30 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 ... 2 emissions

Summary• The scientific evidence is compelling that there is a

link between CO2 emissions and global warming.• There are potentially very serious consequences if

the BAU path is followed.• There is no silver bullet - In order to meaningfully

reduce CO2 emissions, every means available, including capture and storage will be required.

• Industry has long experience handling CO2.• Regulatory caps will need to be in place to make it happen.

www.co2captureproject.comwww.princeton.edu/~cmi/

www.fe.doe.gov/programs/sequestration/


CMU SCS 15-826: Multimedia Databases and Data Mining Lecture #13: Power laws Potential causes and explanations C. Faloutsos.

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Potential Problems with HYDRA€¦ · Potential problems • Classical potential problem – Heat conduction (convection) incl. radiation border conditions – Ground water currents

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SCS Concept Group - Catalogo · SCS SCS Concept Group MSB Concept Group SCS Wrench and Tool Static Tester SCS Concept Group Ph. +39 02 925 02 684 info@scsconcept.com MSB - Ed. 5 -

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MiP-PSCT SCS SHORT CIRCUIT STUDIES (SCS)

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SCS Presentations

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SCS Concept Group - CatalogoConcept Group SCS SCS Concept Group VPG+ Concept Group SCS Visueller Produktionsguide für Montage- und Nacharbeitstationen SCS Concept Deutschland Gmbh

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Impact SCS IMIST - ripleytate.com · Impact SCS IMIST IMPACT SCS IMIST Industry Standard Pedestal Benefits Beyond Compare Comdial’s IMIST Pedestal enhances your Impact SCS communications

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Booked SCs

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Metastatic Stem Cells: Sources, Niches, and Vital … SCs Sources, Niches... · potential in glioblastoma (Anido et al., 2010) and collaborates with WNT to promote CSC potential in

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SCS capabilities

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The Potential for Power Quality Problem Mitigation Through ...

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SCS Presentation

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SOLUTIONS: PROBLEM SET 2 ELECTRIC POTENTIAL AND …

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Status of Dynamical Core C++ Rewrite Oliver Fuhrer (MeteoSwiss), Tobias Gysi (SCS), Men Muhheim (SCS), Katharina Riedinger (SCS), David Müller (SCS), Thomas.

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Quantum Mechanics - Piecewise Potential Well Problem

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SCS Introduction

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Automobile Shredder Residue - The Problem and Potential ...

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DVHYLGHQFHGWKURXJKLQYLWURDQG LQVLOLFRPRGHOV · 2020. 5. 14. · 15 and function of SCs and the potential influence on local alignment. Previously, the role of SCs in 16 the myocardium

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scs manual.pdf

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