Global Warming Energy Challenges
description
Transcript of Global Warming Energy Challenges
![Page 1: Global Warming Energy Challenges](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/56815b8e550346895dc9909b/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Global WarmingEnergy Challenges
CMAQ PresentationJanuary 9, 2006
![Page 2: Global Warming Energy Challenges](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/56815b8e550346895dc9909b/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Overview• Greenhouse effect
– Historic carbon emissions / CO2 rise– Forcing models / temperature predictions
• Effect of a warming earth (1 degree F)• Peak oil / Hubbert’s peak
– Future and current energy challenges• Energy equity – the road ahead
![Page 3: Global Warming Energy Challenges](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/56815b8e550346895dc9909b/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Solar Energy and earth’s Heat
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html
![Page 5: Global Warming Energy Challenges](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/56815b8e550346895dc9909b/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
250 yrs of Carbon Emissions
It took 125 years to burn the first trillion barrels of oil – we’llburn the next trillion in less than 30 years – why should you care?
![Page 6: Global Warming Energy Challenges](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/56815b8e550346895dc9909b/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Rising CO2 over 50 Years
http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/globalchange/keeling_curve/01.html
![Page 7: Global Warming Energy Challenges](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/56815b8e550346895dc9909b/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Carbon Emissions and CO2
• Carbon burned => CO2
• Linear from 1850 to 2000- ppm CO2 =2.55 e10-4 *M tons C
+ 297 ppm (r2*100=99%)
• ~ 50% of carbon goes into atmospheric CO2
– 33% into the oceans
• Trend is constant over 150 years – is this how the biosphere will react over the next 150 years?
Year C burned ppm CO21900 12307 2951910 19174 3001920 28050 3051930 37914 3101940 48566 3101950 62324 3151960 83453 3201970 115935 3251980 164083 3401990 219365 3502000 283373 370
A near perfect correlation that predicts ppm CO2 from total carbon burned
![Page 8: Global Warming Energy Challenges](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/56815b8e550346895dc9909b/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
http://www.mala.bc.ca/~earles/ipcc-tar-feb01.htm
Global Warming - the 20th Century
![Page 9: Global Warming Energy Challenges](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/56815b8e550346895dc9909b/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Earth Out of Balance
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20050428/
![Page 10: Global Warming Energy Challenges](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/56815b8e550346895dc9909b/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Forcing, Predicted Temperature, and Climate Lag, 2000 - 2100
00.511.522.533.544.55
2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
ForcingFeltOwed
0F - Model built assuming ~60% of forcing is felt in ~25 years
![Page 11: Global Warming Energy Challenges](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/56815b8e550346895dc9909b/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Consequences of Warming• Thinning of polar ice caps
– Thawing permafrost / release of methane• Slowing of the thermohaline cycle• Rising sea level, perhaps quickly• Extreme weather events
– Extended regions of drought– Extremes of temperature / duration– Extremes of storms and hurricanes
All these are consequences of only one degree F for <50 years!
![Page 12: Global Warming Energy Challenges](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/56815b8e550346895dc9909b/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
The Melting North Pole
The North Pole is thinning in area ~10% per decade,and thinning in thickness ~1 meter per decade. At theserates, it may be an open sea as early as 2030 – 2050.
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/ClimateClues/
![Page 13: Global Warming Energy Challenges](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/56815b8e550346895dc9909b/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Storms on the Move
Katrina movingacross Florida
in late August 2005finds warm water
in the Gulf of Mexico
And grows from acategory 1 to a
category 5 hurricanein less than 2 days!
![Page 14: Global Warming Energy Challenges](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/56815b8e550346895dc9909b/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Peak Oil – ‘After the Crash’
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
![Page 15: Global Warming Energy Challenges](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/56815b8e550346895dc9909b/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Oil Production – Reserves
Data from ‘The Inevitable Peaking of World Oil Production’, Hirsch, 2005
![Page 16: Global Warming Energy Challenges](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/56815b8e550346895dc9909b/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Projected Energy Demand
http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/english/energy/world/outlook.html
![Page 17: Global Warming Energy Challenges](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/56815b8e550346895dc9909b/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Energy Equity• Burning oil is burning money!• Build an energy infrastructure with equity• Solar energy is primary, not alternative!
– $25 billion economy for ‘million solar roofs’– Every MW of solar energy creates 24 jobs in
manufacturing, and 8 for local installers• Built in America, by Americans, for
America, what could be more economic?
http://www.solarelectricpower.org/
![Page 18: Global Warming Energy Challenges](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/56815b8e550346895dc9909b/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Summary• Greenhouse effect – carbon cycle• Forcing models – temperature lag• Effect of warming just one degree• Peak oil – declining energy production• Energy Equity – and the road ahead
– Our single biggest challenge– Our single biggest opportunity
![Page 19: Global Warming Energy Challenges](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/56815b8e550346895dc9909b/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
References• http://www.realclimate.org/ • http://www.giss.nasa.gov/• http://www.sc.doe.gov/ober/CCRD/model.html• http://www.nersc.gov/projects/gcm_data/ • http://www.solarelectricpower.org/ • http://www.nrel.gov/• http://www.eia.doe.gov/ • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil