GLOBAL VOLUME OUTLOOK FOR PLUG-IN VEHICLES AND BATTERIES€¦ · • Long term forecasts •...

15 Oct 2019eMove 360 Muenchen 2019 0

GLOBAL VOLUME OUTLOOK FOR PLUG-IN VEHICLES AND BATTERIES

Batteries for Electric Vehicles

About

15 Oct 20191

Data Center & Reports

• Sales and share tracking

• Battery shipments

• Charging infrastructure

• Future model roll-out

• Current model specs

• Subsidies & Incentives

Consulting

• Long term forecasts

• Industry analysis

• Reports

• Special datasets

• Guidance calls

Publications

• Website Articles

• Interviews

• Conference speakers

• Social media

• Papers

Global Market Intelligence for the EV Industry

eMove 360 Muenchen 2019

Good News

15 Oct 20192eMove 360 Muenchen 2019

Picture Credit:Niklas Elmehed

“Since the first lithium-ion

batteries came on the market

in 1991, they have changed

our existence. They have laid

the foundations for a

wireless and fossil-free

society, and are of greatest

benefit to humanity”

Content


GLOBAL VOLUME

OUTLOOK FOR PLUG-IN

VEHICLES AND BATTERIES

➢ Recent developments

➢ Global sales tracking

➢ Battery volume tracking

➢ Demand & Supply Drivers

➢ Vehicle volume outlook to 2030

➢ Battery volume demand

Developments – last 12 months


❖ 2021, 2025 and 2030 CO2 targets ratified, WLTP introduction❖ Taxes and grants for more ZEV sales in SE, UK, CH, BE, DK❖ Tesla Model-3 Europe intro, 65k sales in Europe Jan-Sep❖ First model-year of: Audi e-tron Quattro (12k), Mercedes EQC (<1k),

Hyundai Kona (20k), Kia Niro (9k), all are BEVs❖ Most German PHEV now available again, after 12 month hiatus

❖ Consolidations towards fewer, more viable OEMs❖ Subsidy cuts for NEVs in China in April & June (Cars and Buses)❖ NEV y-o-y sales decline for the 3rd consecutive month❖ High portfolio turnover; 35 new models, 25 discontinued❖ Exports to Europe on small scale

❖ Big-3 and Japanese still passive❖ First MY of: Audi e-tron Quattro, Jaguar i-Pace, Hyundai Kona, Kia Niro, all

below 5k annual volume; Chevy Volt EREV dropped❖ Sector in decline now, comparing to Tesla boom in 2018 H2

❖ Additional global battery capacity of 480 GWh announced until 2023❖ Industry ready to spend €270 bn on vehicle electrification in next 3-5 years❖ Battery cost fell another 10-15 %❖ But also: Several EV start-ups in crisis, Dyson cancelled EV project❖ European Battery Alliance

Monthly PEV Sales Tracking


98%

36%

57%

29%

14%

66%

4%-8%

-8%

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

MONTHLYPLUG-IN

VEHICLE SALES&

Y-O-Y GROWTH

LightVehicles

GLOBAL2017 2018 2019

Worldwide in 85 MarketsAll 200 Plug-in ModelsPassenger Cars, LCVs, Light Trucks

Vehicle SegmentationBEV, PHEV, FCEV, HEV, MHEVBatteries: Type, Size, Supplier

Estimate based on available data

Slowing growth expected for this year


Plug-in Vehicles - Light Vehicle Markets

1 350

45

550

345

126

1 161

53

408

358

98

0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400

China

Japan

Europe

USA

Other

'000s

EV SALES AND % GROWTH 2019

2018

+16%

-15%

+35

-4%

+28

1 161

53

409

358

98

648

56

306

200

52

0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200

China

Japan

Europe

USA

Other

'000s

EV SALES AND % GROWTH2018

2017VOLUMES.COM

+79%

-6%

+34

+79

+89

… compared to previous years

2019 are our full year estimates

Rapid Growth – Still a Niche ?


Plug-in Vehicles

Light Vehicle Markets

0,75 % OF LIGHT VEHICLES ON THE ROAD

2,6 % OF LIGHT VEHICLES SALES

125 208321

543

792

1 263

2 081

2 420

0,1%0,2%

0,2%0,4%

0,6%

0,9%

1,3%

2,2%

2,6%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

GLOBAL PLUG-IN VEHICLE SALES

Annual ('000s)

PEV Share

+16%+65%+59%+46%+69%+55%+66%+146%

180 390710

1 250

2 030

3 300

5 300

7 700

792

1263

20812420

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

GLOBAL PLUG-IN VEHICLE FLEET

EV Population ('000s)

Annual Sales ('000s)

More than a small niche in some places …


The Global average was 2,5 % from January-June 2019

Norway

Iceland

California, Sweden, Netherlands

China, Switzerland, Finland, Portugal

Denmark, Ireland, Austria, Canada, Belgium, Germany

France, S-Korea, New Zealand, UK, USA

Malaysia, Spain, Japan

Italy, Australia, Poland

Turkey, Mexico, Russia, Brazil, India

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%PEV Shares 2019 H1

Plug-in Vehicles


Consistent growth – China dominates


56 %

14 %

China 1350k

USA 345k

Norway 86kGermany 113kUK 66kJapan 46kFrance 70kCanada 58kNetherlands 66kSouth Korea 48kSweden 42k

Other 124k

Trendline

0

500 000

1 000 000

1 500 000

2 000 000

2 500 000

3 000 000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019est

2019World Share

2,6 %GLOBAL PLUG-IN DELIVERIESBEV & PHEV - Light Vehicles

+66%+55%

+69%

+46%

+59%

+65%

Y-O-Y Growth

+16%

Rapid shift to more BEV sales in all Regions


Plug-in Vehicles


➢ Taxation / Subsidies (Europe, China)

➢ WLTP (Europe)

➢ More long-range BEVs

➢ PHEV transitions (Europe, USA)

BEV China

BEV Non-China

PHEV China

PHEV Non-China

0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

ANNUAL SALES BY PROPULSION TYPE

2018 2019

China 76 % 84 %

Europe 56 % 69 %

USA 66 % 73 %

RoW 57 % 65 %

Global 69 % 78 %

BEV Share in Mix

Current Best-Sellers


128

49

35

29

27

26

26

24

24

22

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Tesla Model 3

BJEV EU-Series EV

Nissan Leaf EV

BYD Yuan EV535

Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV

BYD e5 450 EV

Renault Zoe EV

BYD Tang PHEV

Geely Emgrand EV

SAIC Roewe Ei5 EV

Picture Credits: WattEV2Buy

Thousands

TOP-10 EV MODELS - GLOBAL DELIVERIESJANUARY TO JUNE

2019 H1

2018 H1

Tesla Model-3 Sales Vs ICE Competition

➢ Only 2 PHEVs among the top-10

➢ 6 of top-10 models from China

➢ Top-10 stand for 46 % of sales

➢ 15 % of BEV sales are Tesla Model-3

Europe +84%

USA +98%

China +61%

Global Avg +66%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 H1

kWh SALES WEIGHTED

0,2 1,1 2,4 4,9 7,713,6

23,0

37,0

74,1

100,4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

until2010

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019est

Battery Installations


Annual Shipments - GWh Chemistry Groups – GWh based

Plug-in Vehicles


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

until2010

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20191-6

Oth./Unspec.

LMO

LFP

NCA

NMC

Avg. BEV Battery Size – 5 year increase

Traction Battery Supply


0 5 000 10 000 15 000

Panasonic

CATL

BYD

LG Chem

Samsung SDI

AESC

Oth. China based

Oth. Japan based

Oth. S-Korea based

Europe/US based

MWh

LEADING BATTERY SUPPLIERS

Shipments for Light Vehicles

2019 H1

2018 H1

Drivers of EV Demand and Supply


• ICE bans in 10+ countries, starting 2025, 2030, 2040

• 200+ cities have or plan restrictions on ICE or Diesel use (LEZs)

• Progressive vehicle taxation depending on fuel consumption

• CAFE targets and penalties for underperforming OEM, more rigid WLTP

• EV grants, tax and fee exemptions for buyers

• Battery cost /kWh drop 15-20 % every year, enable affordable, long range BEVs

• Approaching cost parity: Increasing ICE cost vs decreasing BEV cost

• Diminishing returns on further ICE developments

• Autonomous vehicle and mobility services amplify BEV demand

• Charging infrastructure improvements

• Concerns about climate change and air quality

• Interest in traditional car ownership is on the decline

• Fear that ICE cars can become a liability, poor investment

• From machines to devices: mobile, multifunctional and connected

• Increasing awareness and knowledge about EVs

Rapid EV Portfolio Expansion


This total count reflects the strategic announcements of the individual OEMs where available.It is for model-series, not variants like battery sizes, 2WD/AWD versions, body-styles, trim levels or wheelbases. Please note that the sum of regional counts does not match the global count as one model can be sold in more than one region.

Predicting EV adoption


“We tend to overestimate the effect of a

technology in the short run and

underestimate the effect in the long run."

Amara’s law – Roy Charles Amara (1925-2007)

S-Curves for EV adoption


7,19%

Sweden

40,2%

Norway

4,21%

China

2,08%

USA

2,30%

Europe

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%% of Light Vehicle

Sales

0,7%2,8%

9,7%

30,3%

1,2%4,8%

22,5%

55,0%

0,8%

7,5%

24,0%

55,0%

0,1% 0,7%3,7%

17,5%

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2015 2020 2025 2030 2015 2020 2025 2030 2015 2020 2025 2030

USA Europe China Rest of World

'000s

PLUG-IN VEHICLE SALES DEMAND - LIGHT VEHICLES

BEV PHEV % of Light Vehicle Sales

Regional Demand Outlook


Global 2015 2020 2025 2030

BEV+PHEV ('000s) 543 3 425 12 672 34 860

% BEV 60% 78% 83% 88%

% of Market 0,6% 3,7% 13,7% 36,6%

Commercial EVs


E-LCVs 2018

❑ 3,6 % of world EV sales

❑ Lower sector share than

for Pass. Cars

❑ Few entries with low

appeal, today

E-HCVs 2018

❑ 5,5 % of world EV sales

❑ Higher sector share than for

Pass. Cars

❑ 75 % of volume from large

City-Buses in China

❑ China E-Bus demand is

saturated; subsidies lower for

2019

E-CVs: 200k global volume in 2018

Demand Outlook


43226

1 001

3 113

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

2015 2020 2025 2030

Global Traction Battery Demand - Annual GWh

Into Heavy Vehicles

Into Light Vehicles - PHEV

Into Light Vehicles - BEV

25%35%39%CAGR

0,6%3,7%

14%

37%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2015 2020 2025 2030

Mill

ion

s

Global EV Demand - Annual Units

Heavy Vehicles

Light Vehicles - PHEV

Light Vehicles - BEV

22%30%40%CAGR

Supply Destination


Battery Demand by Vehicle Production OriginPassenger Cars & Light Trucks

Source: EV-volumes Forecast by OEMs/Models

China 49%

USA 18%

Germany 10%

Other Western Europe 11%

Japan 1%

To be announced 5%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

GWh

Actuals Forecast

Summary


2018 2025 2030

Models available

220 x 3 650 x 2 > 1200

BEV vs ICE Prod. cost

+40 % +10 % -10 %

EV share 2,2 % x 6,3 14 % x 2,6 37 %

Volume & CAGR

2,2M 29 % 13M 22 % 36M

Battery Demand

110 GWh x 9 1000 GWh x 3 3100 GWh

EV Fleet 5,9M x 9 55M x 3 170M

Light and Heavy Plug-in Vehicles


Thank you!

Contact Info

15 Oct 201924

Terry ZhaoCountry Representative

China

+86 (0) 138 11 06 86 48

[email protected]

Viktor IrleFounder &

Customer Developer

+46 (0) 76 627 81 34

[email protected]

Nicolas MeilhanSenior Advisor

+33 (0) 6 74 09 56 09

[email protected]

Roland IrleFounder &

Forecasting Expert

+46 (0) 70 844 11 23

[email protected]

José PontesFounder &

Database Developer

+351 (0) 91 41 60 424

[email protected]


Tashfin OsmaniCountry Representative

UK and Ireland

+44 (0) 790 88 74 787

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]






EV-volumes - In Summary

15 Oct 201925

EV-volumes is a global data and information service for the electric vehicle sector. Weprovide a range of unique, high quality tracking data sets for EV sales, marketpenetration, battery shipments, charging infrastructure, current and future productofferings around the world.Our consultancy services combine the facts and figures of EV-volumes.com with ourexpertise in other areas of the automotive sector. We support planning activities withmarket studies, policy monitoring, detailed forecasts, reports and insights.EV-volumes has become an acknowledged source in public media and is a frequentspeaker on international conferences for future market trends in vehicle electrification.

EV-volumes has three founders, Roland Irle, Jose Pontes and Viktor Irle, who are allworking in the company. Following years of research and data collection, the servicewent online in December 2015.Our clients are metal/mineral miners and traders, investors, EV-charging providers,utilities, auto OEM, auto suppliers, incl. batteries, consulting houses and universities

The footprint is global: Europe 50 %, Americas 30 %, Asia-Pacific and others 20 %, interms of turnover. We are based in Sweden and have dedicated associates in China,South Africa, France, UK and Portugal, plus a network of 50 contributors around theworld. The company is independent and self-funded.

EV-volumes.com is a product of Riio Marknad & Strategi AB, registered in Vänersborg,Sweden. VAT-Nr: SE 556927 8657 01


GLOBAL VOLUME OUTLOOK FOR PLUG-IN VEHICLES AND BATTERIES€¦ · • Long term forecasts •...

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