Global trends in distance and onlineeducation: threats and

opportunities for providersPretoria, 7 February 2014

Gard TitlestadSecretary General

International Council For Open and Distance Education, ICDE

• The leading global membership organization for open, distance and online education

• An NGO official partner of UNESCO, and shares that agency’s key aim – the attainment of quality education for all

• ICDE believes that in pursuing education as a universal right, the needs of the learner must be central.

• Members in all regions of the world

25 Years SupportFrom Norway

The BIG picture

The BIG Picture

• Online and distance education is steadily increasing all over the world

IndiaSweden

Russia

South America

The US

AfricaAustralia

China

The BIG picture

• The growth in higher education is massive

20442030

320

4002007 - 2030

Mill. students

EU/OECD projections the need for HEby 2030: 400 mill.

The BIG picture

• The changes in higher education is dramatic

The BIG picture

• MOOC took the world (?) with storm, peaked, and opened up for massive innovation in education

Coursera ”Learning Hubs”

Where?

Numbers per February 2014

http://openeducationeuropa.eu/en/european_scoreboard_moocs

Numbers per February 2014

The BIG picture

• Online, Distance (ODL) and on Campus Learning are converging => Blended

BlendedODLCampus

• And as a result – an even more diverse higher education landscape……

The BIG picture

• Three streams work in parallel:

– Online becomes mature – and Internet/mobile: freedom from distance, mobile broadband: freedom from location

– New methodologies, content and pedagogy – new opportunities for student supportive teaching

– New knowledge about the brain and learning, new knowledge in neurosciences

The BIG picture

• We are in the beginning (of the beginning) – example: mobile technology

We are in the beginning of the beginning

State of Broadband Report 2013 www.broadbandcommission.org

African Undersea Cables

nov. 2013

http://manypossibilities.net/african-undersea-cables/

We are in the beginning of the

beginning

And meet the challenges:

The Governments moves…..

Ref. Yang Zhijian, president Open University of China, ICDE world Conference, Tianjin, Kina 2013

The CONCRETE example

January 2014

2013 (ECAR)

Who take MOOC ? 2013 (ECAR)

Paul Stacey, Associate Director of Global Learning, Creative Commons, Oktober 2013

MOOC or MOC

The BIG trends

Openknowledge

Societal needs

Technology

Students needs and expectations

OER

Cost

Trends, within

the framwork of globalisation and internationalisation

HE needs – 1 U a week

Demographics

Globalisation

Enabling economic growth

Access

Open Access

eInfrrastructureseScience

Automation

Robots Sensors

2020 – 80% connectedInternet of things Open Research

Open Data

Open Innovation

US quadruppling

Southern Europe….

Developing economies

ICT Habitus

Flexibility

Employability

Lifelong

Disruptive Innovations

The BIG change?

Computerization Threatens One Third of Finnish Employment

37% of Danish jobs classified with high probability for being phased out

http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21594264-previous-technological-innovation-has-always-delivered-more-long-run-employment-not-less

The future of jobs; The onrushing wave

Technology and jobs; Coming to an office near youhttp://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21594298-effect-todays-technology-tomorrows-jobs-will-be-immenseand-no-country-ready

http://www.kraka.org/artikler/computere_og_udskiftning_af_jobfunktioner

http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/rifbriefs/22.htm

The Future of Employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?About 47 per cent of total US employment is at risk.http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/publications/view/1314

The BIGGER opportunities

”For the first time in human history we have the tools to enable everyone to attain all the education they desire.”

(Wiley, Green, & Soares, 2012)

Dramatically bringing down the cost of education with OER: How open education resources unlock the door to

free learning.

The next years

• Open, distance, online and eLearning – enables:

• Equal, easy and affordable access• Quality Higher education• Better learning outcome• Student success

• And the threats? The other way around…..

The small TEXT

MOOC in an international perspective: New global agenda for innovation

in higher education • 1) Goverment should provide a holistic, favorable framework for open and

online learning and in line with the values of UNESCO. Intesive should be established for wanted direction. Dialogue with stakeholders, in particular HEI. Specific goals to be set. OER in line with the UNESCO declaration a part of the framework.

• 2) Support and facilitation of Leadership for change to a more open and online education. Competencies to be build.

• 3) Incentives and support for faculty and teachers change processes, competencies and working environment to acheive a more open and online education.

• 4) Framework and methodologies that put the learner in the centre. • 5) Cooperation across institutions, and countries on content and platforms for a

more open and online education, hereunder MOOC. • 6) Interoperability between solutions.• 7) Concrete goals and plans for research and innovation within the field, well

anchored at the institutions concerned..

Dr Qian Tang, Assistant Director-General for Education, UNESCO (8/11/2013).It is necessary to repeat the confirmation of fundamental principles:

• Education is– A fundamental human rights– A public good– A basis for man's attainment of peace, sustainable development, gender

equality and responsible global citizenship– A key factor in reducing inequality and poverty.

• And further: Imperative for Education for post 2015 agenda must be:– Equitable access to education for all and at all levels– Quality of education and learning– Fairness– Gender equality– Lifelong learning

Thank you!titlestad@icde.org

www.icde.org