Global Trends in Grains
-
Upload
marexmedia -
Category
Business
-
view
276 -
download
0
Transcript of Global Trends in Grains
1
June 2015
Global Trends in Grains
WHEAT SCENARIO
• South America overtaking US in exports.• FSU has emerged as another big exporter.• India trying to achieve self sufficiency.
Wheat import markets : While supply regions are few, (NA, Black sea and Australia), consumption is more uniform and
importing markets are uniformly spread across the Globe.
East Asia’s demand is consistent and growing at steady pace, Europe's import demand has
seen fluctuations.
High importing regions are North Africa and Middle east with 20 mmt each, South East Asia
imports another 17 mmt. ME & SEA have huge potential of growth.
With westernization of diet in SEA and EA, wheat demand will consistently increase in
importing counties. Erstwhile rice consuming population is increasingly using breads, pasta
and noodles in their diets.
Wheat is also important ingredient of animal feed. Whenever (like last year) wheat prices
reduces or basis between Wheat and Corn narrows, wheat usage in feed production
increases.
4
June 2015
Supply Snap Shot of Main Corn exporting countries
MM
T
Despite lower production anticipations, Exports are likely to remain stable owing to heavy carry forward stocks
Source: USDA
INDIA WHEAT SNDIndia Wheat Govt. SND (Apr-Mar)
2015/16 2016/17 Change
C/i 17.22 14.16 -3.06Procurement 28.09 26.5 -1.59Imports 0.00 0.00 0.00Supplies 45.31 40.66 -4.65Sales 30.75 27.75 -3.00
PDS 22.34 22.10 -0.24Welfare and Relief
Schemes 1.60 1.65 0.05
OMSS 6.81 4.00 -2.81Exports 0.00 000 0.00Residual 0.40 0.40 0.00C/o 14.16 12.51 -1.65
HOPE ???????
FOR SURE FROM GRAINS SIDE………..
How ?• Grains and oilseeds production will continue to increase
and thus exports/imports of Grains will continue.• More weather vagaries across the world, forcing nations to
keep inventories, specially if you are a consumer.((Lanina and Alnino, droughts, ))
• Asian and specially SE Asia continue to grow, worlds growth coming from this part. Improved fin health improving demand for grains as well proteins.
• South America taking over US in terms of grain export volumes.
• Lets not underestimate the Dragon, It has only slowed a bit….it has potential to bounce back any time !!!! For sure they wd continue importing grains a/oilseeds and edible oil.
THANK YOU……CHEERS !!!