Global Trends, Disruptive events, VUCA leadership agility - MCE Futurist Keynote Speaker Patrick...
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Transcript of Global Trends, Disruptive events, VUCA leadership agility - MCE Futurist Keynote Speaker Patrick...
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Body Level One
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Body Level Five Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
Fellow, Centre for Management Development London Business School
TheFutureofAlmostEverythingGlobaltrends,disrup;veeventsandleadershipdevelopment
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Ins;tu;onalBlindnessinEveryLeader
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do things you really believe in Life is Short
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Complexity and scale create risks
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Title Text
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Leadership Development overtaken by events World can change faster than you can hold a board meeting
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Agility
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Yet many trends changing more slowly
than people think
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Cash growing - bank branches continue -
music, fashions, food - homes look the same, robots, 3D printing etc
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Robots in Factories only 7% pa 92,000-170,000 2000-2012
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3D scans - 3D printing
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What is the future of the global
ECONOMY
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WGP(%,constantprices)
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VietnamGDP1985-2011
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$3.4trillion($50trillionby2020globally)
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>>$2.4trillion
Reserves
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One word will dominate ALL
FUTURE
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The future is aboutEMOTION
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Up to 70% of sales of new convenience
stores from people who live
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40% of adults in UK dont know by 4pm what they will eat for dinner tonight
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85% of world population will be living in emerging
markets in 10 years
1% owns 50%
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1 billion will migrate over next 30 years
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Science,technologyengineering,
maths
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MostSTEMgraduatesinemergingmarkets
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ChinaandIndiadominate
STEMdegreesincludingpost-graduate/PhDs
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Europe Dying 4 couples to produce single great-grand child
1 million over 90 year olds in Italy in 12 years time
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>65%spend>65years
1billion>60by2020
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1weekevery4
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following coronary, stroke or sight loss using adult stem cells
Repair Heart / Brain / Eyes with stem cells
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After 20 years - 80% alive v 50% on normal calories Less cancer, diabetes, heart disease, strokes, brain decay
Monkeys on diet live longer
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Read your genes in 2 hours for
$2000
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Slow or no ageing is a reality
Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales
No signs of getting old
Rougheye rockfish (Sebastes aleutianus) 205 years Aldabra Giant Tortoise 255 years Lobsters are believed to live 100 or more years Ocean Quahog clam 405 years
Some animals do not age in normal way
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Language - Music Culture - History
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1trillionpagesamonth
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People love Cities and Offices
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ReproduceownimageTendtorecruitpeoplewithfamiliarname,voice,
accent,personality,culture,appearance
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85%ofleadersoflargestUScorporaWonssaydiversityiskey
toinnovaWon
Forbesstudy
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Diversitylinkedtohighersales,marketshareandprofits,talentrecruitment-andmoreaccurateunderwriWng
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Big Data = Pattern
Little Data = Person
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Globalised+BarriersIncreasingScale
- InmanyEUnaWons,upto70%ofretailspendingisin
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World too small for more than:2 airline manufacturers
3 mobile operating systems10 large pharma
5 large auto companies
With rapid growth of niche manufacturing
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8%wageinflaWoninChina-partoffsetbycurrencyfall
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NearshoringBoom
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Since 1980, global trade has grown at twice the rate of production but now growing LESS than production
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MOBILE >50% of all online sales in many
nations are using mobile
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LocaWonMarkeWng
isnextBIGTHING
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79
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80
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Internet of Things
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2bn new smart home devices a year by 202027% of Internet of Things will be in homes
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MobilePayment
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Mobiledevicesalreadyusedtomakepaymentsofover$640bnpa-growing40%annually
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40%ofKenyaseconomyisnowcarriedoutusingm-Pesaplaeormalone-e-walletlikeEZ-Cash
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86
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90%MicrosogR&D SalesForceR&D>$3bnpa
CLOUD
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180bnspamemailsaday600mnewviruses,malware,trojansayear>220mpeoplesdetailslostinsinglealack70%largecorporaWonshavebeenhacked
100,000alacksanhouronUSNavyParalysisofEstoniagovernmentin2007
WorriesaboutUS,Russia,ChinapenetraWon
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$40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism
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Shale gas 33% US supplies
3.3m US jobs $468bn pa + more oil
produced than Saudi by 2020
200 years global supply Up from 60 years in 5 years
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75% global growth in green energy was in China in 2014
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SolarCells$/wal1990-2015
subsidies
PriceParity
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SurplusPowertoGas:13EUplants/26planned
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EnergyusehashalvedperunitofproducWoninEUchemicalindustry
overlast20years
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CO2 emissions stable for 24
months of global economic growth
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Beyond Compliance
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do things you really believe in Life is Short
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AllleadershipcomesfromVISIONofabelerfuture
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TeamsintophalfofEngagement 86% more likely to have better customer metrics 70% more likely to have low staff turnover 70% more likely to be highly productive 44% more likely to be profitable
Gallup meta-survey > 10 million people
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LessonfromNon-ProfitsandAcWvists
Connectwithallthepassionspeoplehaveandtheywillfollowyoutothe
endsoftheearth,promotewhatyoudowithpride,andmayevenbewillingto
workforyoufornexttonothing
.andthefourwordphraseis.
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BuildingaBelerWorld
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Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
globalchange.com@patrickdixon#MCE55