CLIMATE AND WATER:

GLOBAL TO LOCAL CARIBBEAN SOCIO-ECONOMIC CLIMATE

CHANGE SCENARIOS

John AgardUniversity of the West Indies

john.agard@sta.uwi.edu

John Agard, UWI

• Clear correlation between atmospheric CO2 and temperature over last 160,000 years

• Current level of CO2 is outside the bounds of natural variability

• Rate of change of CO2 is also unprecedented

THE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

PROBLEM

FUTURE HUMAN INDUCED CLIMATE CHANGE DEPENDS ON

THE DECISIONS TAKEN BY GOVERNMENTS GLOBALLY:

If nothing is done to slow greenhouse gas emissions. . .

• CO2 concentrations will likely be more than 700 ppm by 2100

• Global average temperatures are projected to increase between 2.0 – 4.5 °C ???

2100

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS-Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)

– 8.5 Wm-2 (RCP 8.5, 1350ppm CO2-e)

– 6.0 Wm-2 (RCP 6.0, 850ppm CO2-e)

– 4.5 Wm-2 (RCP 4.5, 650ppm CO2-e)

– 2.6 Wm-2 (RCP 2.6, 450ppm CO2-e)

John Agard, UWISOURCE: IPCC Wk Gp 1 Ar5

PROJECTED PRECIPITATION CHANGE

IN THE CARIBBEAN

THE REGIONAL

LEVEL

John Agard, UWISOURCE: IPCC Wk Gp 1 Ar5

PROJECTED TEMPERATURE CHANGE

IN THE CARIBBEAN

John Agard, UWI

PROJECTED PRECIPITATION CHANGE

IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

Pre

THE LOCAL LEVEL

John Agard, UWI

PROJECTED PRECIPITATION CHANGE

BARBADOS

John Agard, UWI

PROJECTED PRECIPITATION CHANGE

SAINT LUCIA

HealthInsect vectors and infectious diseases

AgricultureCrop yieldsIrrigation demands

Watershed ManagementChanges in water supplyWater quality

Coastal AreasErosion of beaches (loss of coral reefs). Inundation of coastal wetlands. Costs to protect coastal communities

ForestsChange in forest compositionShift geographic range of forestsForest health and productivityCarbon sequestration

Species and Natural AreasShift in ecological zonesLoss of habitat and species

Potential Climate Change Impacts

Climate Changes

Sea Level Rise

Temperature

Precipitation

Tropical Storms

WATER AVAILABILITY IS A PART OF EVERY ASPECT OF

THE DIRECT IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

John Agard, UWI

THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE HAS 2 COMPONENTS:

1. The physical climate signal e.g. rainfall intensity

2. The socio-economic and political component

John Agard, UWI

8.5

6.0

4.5

2.6

Miti

gatio

n Ch

alle

nge

Adap

tatio

n Ch

alle

nge

Adaptive Capacity

Residual Impact

AdaptationMitigation

LOW HIGHMEDIUM

Mitigation Capacity

Socioeconomic Development Cl

imat

e Si

gnal

S t o r l y l i n e 1

S t o r l y l i n e 2

S t o r l y l i n e 3e.g. Haiti e.g. Trinidad & Tobago

e.g. Trinidad

e.g. St Lucia

HDI

AGRICULTURE ECONOMY

TOURISM ECONOMY

INDUSTRIALECONOMYRCP

Caribbean Small Island Scenario Construction

Short Term

Exploitation

Sustainable Futures

Econ

omyGlobally

Connected

RegionallyFocused

Approach to development

Capitalst Commons

Quality OverQuantity

Neo-Plantation Economy

Adaptation Challenge

Miti

gatio

n Ch

alle

nge

SSP4-.RCP4.5

SSP2-RCP6.0

SSP4-RCP8.5

SSP1-RCP2.6

Diversify Together

Global

Regional

National/Local

Shared Socio-economic Policy Assumption

Scenarios

Small Island Developing State Scenarios

Caribbean Sea Trinidad & TobagoBarbados

HaitiDominicaJamaica

Projected CC impacts on crops, water availability, forest, coastal protection, tourism etc.

Downscaled temperature & precipitation, sea level rise

Commodity prices e.g. oil & gas, agricultural products, Investment capital

Agricultural/Mineral economy: e.g. JamaicaTourism economy: e.g. Barbados, St LuciaIndustrial economy: e.g. Trinidad & Tobago

©John Agard, UWI

SSP narratives+ RCP quantification

SSP database(pop, GDP, urbanization)

Scenarios of future Caribbean political economy

Industrial(Trinidad &

Tobago)

Tourism-based(Barbados &

St. Lucia)

Agricultural/Mineral

(Jamaica)

Health, coasts, forests, biodiversity, cocoa Freshwater, forests Sweet potato

Regional typology

Global (RCP/SSP)

Local “windows”

ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

IMPACTS

LABOUR &

INST

ITUTI

ONSGOODS

&

SERV

ICES

IMPACTS

SOCIETY• People• Lifestyles• Culture• Social

organization

ENVIRONMENT• Land• Water• Air• Biodiversity• Minerals

ECONOMY• Agriculture• Industry• Transport• Households

ONSHORE ECONOMY

OFFSHORE ECONOMY

SUG

AR

,OIL

IDE

AS

MONETARY CAPITAL,

TECHNICAL & MANAGERIAL

SKILLS

STAPLES FOR METROPOLITAN CONSUMPTION INCLUDING

CULTURAL SERVICES e.g TOURISM.

PROJECTED GLOBAL COMMODITY PRICES TO BE MODELED BASED ON

SSP-RCP SCENARIOS

e.g. INDUSTRIAL POLLUTION,

ECOSYSTEM

SERVICESRCES

e.g. WATER POLLUTION

e.g. CLEAN WATER

© John Agard, UWI

Neo-Plantation Economy Logic

e.g. WATER FOR INDUSTRY

John Agard, UWI

Dr Adrian CashmanCERMES, UWI, Barbados

18

Varietal differences:

• Colour (Flesh and skin)

• Texture

• Foliage

Source: CARDI 2010

2. Methodology: Five Varieties

Food Security Modelling-Sweet Potatoes

Dale Rankine, UWI, Mona Jamaica

19

Devon

Ebony Park

Passley Gardnes

Bodles*

* *

*

2. Methodology: Site Locations

20

2. The Methodology: The FAO AquaCrop Model

The Conceptual Framework

• B=WP x ΣTr [Biomass]

(ET=E+T)

• WP normalised for ET and CO2

•  Y=B x HI [Yield]

• Robust, Accurate yet simple

Conceptual Framework of AquaCrop

Source: Hsiao et al 2011

21

Results: Model Parameterization (Devon vs Ebony Park)

32 65 96 1370.0005.000

10.000

Ebony Park-Rainfed (2013)

Measured Simulated

DAP

Yie

ld (t

/ha)

22

3. Results: 2012/2013 Parameterization(Summarised)

Year Treatment Canopy Cover Biomass Yield

Devon RSME (%) E RSME (t/ha) E RSME (t/ha) E

2012Irrigated 44.32 -8.69 20.33 -1.09 3.77 0.13

Rainfed 31.21 -0.97 9.73 -1.02 6.40 -0.13

2013 Irrigated 3.37 0.99 2.95 0.67 2.29 -0.05

Rainfed 8.01 0.91 4.18 0.35 1.22 0.75

Ebony Park

2013 Irrigated 29.88 -1.14 8.87 0.12 2.59 0.63Rainfed 21.86 0.38 2.08 0.84 3.69 -14.02

• Improvement in model parameterization (2012 vs 2013)

• Enhanced model performance (in 2013): prediction of yields for both Rainfed (Devon) and Irrigated (Ebony) plants

N

i i

N

i ii

OO

SOE

12

12

)(

)(1

TROPICAL STORMS

COASTAL FLOODING

WIND RAINFALL

Storm surgeWaves

+RSLR (climate

change)

DROUGHTS

Understanding the Economics of Climate Change Adaptation (ECA) in Trinidad and Tobago

,1

, i

n

i ij

ji jD VH

DAMAGE = α ∙ HAZARD ∙ VULNERABILITY

HAZA

RD ch

arac

teriz

ation

VULN

ERABILITY characterization

4. TROPICAL STORMS

4.1. METHODOLOGY

1 2 3 4 5

2 4 6 8 10

3 6 9 12 15

4 8 12 16 20

5 10 15 20 25

WIND AND RAINFALL

DISSAGREGATION BASED ON ADMINISTRATIVE UNITS

4. TROPICAL STORMS

4.2. RECEPTORS

COASTAL FLOODING

DISSAGREGATION BASED ON ADMINISTRATIVE UNITS

4. TROPICAL STORMS

4.2. RECEPTORS

, ,1

n

i i i j i jj

D V H

CALIBRATION OF THE DAMAGE FUNCTION:

Ranking TC event Loss (USD)

Most severe Flora 1963 299,359,310

Second most severe Not named 1933 54,901,280

Third most severe Ivan 2004 34,111,016

Calibration of the damage functions (α)4. TROPICAL STORMS

4.3. CALIBRATION

Pragmatic approach: relationship between historical events and reported damages

(economical losses). The historical database will condition the fitting of the α parameter

In this project only 3 events with economical loss reported

Tropical Cyclones (TC)

Historical TC selection

Stochastic simulation

Representative TC (MDA)

Dynamical modelling

Coastal FloodingRainfall Wind

Reconstruction (RBF)

Hidromet-Ranking VortexH2DSWAN

Hazard4. TROPICAL STORMS

4.4. DAMAGE

29

Cost-Benefit Analysis of climate change adaptation measures for Trinidad and Tobago

Action code Title Total cost Total benefit Net present value Pay back (years) Benefit-Cost Ratio

TTA 1 National Building Code $4,529,327 $72,151,025 $40,675,033 3 15.9

TTA 2 Construction of dikes in coastal areas $85,977,904 $6,825,496 -$55,532,774 146 0.1

TTA 3 Meteorological alert System connected to the Monitoring System $41,000 $4,179,913 $2,923,547 0.1 101.9

TTA 5 Social Awareness Program $198,787 $98,559 -$80,224 ∞ 0.5

TTA 4 Emergency Protocols$1,659,793 $3,767,319 $1,489,173 0 2.3

TTA 6 Institutional Training Program

TTA 7 Rainwater harvesting $1,714,977 $1,180,476 -$493,475 25 0.7

TTA 8 Infrastructure and Building Reinforcement $61,820,734 $27,911,274 -$26,705,453 35 0.5

TTA 9 Retention ponds $279,616 $47,027 -$180,117 ∞ 0.2

TTA 10 Filter Strips $487,080 $356,132 -$119,458 25 0.7

TTA 11 Permeable pavements $375,536,762 $38,897,785 -$240,055,769 ∞ 0.1

TTA 12 Beach nourishment $23,688,332 $20,736,386 -$5,810,982 19 0.9

TTA 13 Mangrove planting $744,188 $71,348,613 $40,273,146 5.1 95.9

TTA 14 Agricultural Insurance Program $62,850 N/A N/A N/A N/A

TTA 15 Agriculture & Climate Change Research Unit $4,455,439 $986,772 -$2,544,836 ∞ 0.2

TTA 16 Green Roofs $1,055,220 $1,786,554 $213,421 10 1.7

Mosquitoes Dengue virus Environment Humans

Epidemiology Factors

Human Health Modelling

Professor Dave D. ChadeeDepartment of Life Sciences, University of the West Indies, St. Augustine, Trinidad, West Indies.

Forest Density Maps – all species combined

Forest ModellingDr Shobha Maharaj, Department of Life Sciences, UWI, Trinidad and Tobago

John Agard, UWI

Business as Usual

Security First Sustainability First

Scenarios for 2020 and beyond

policy reform

market forces

breakdown

fortress world

new sustainability

eco-communalism

• Globalization evolves gradually

• Capitalist values spread• Developing countries like T&T converge toward rich-country patterns of development

• Social, environmental and economic instability amplify

• Civilized norms erode

• New values and institutions ascend

• Human solidarity strengthens

• Deep respect for nature becomes norm

Variations….

Comprehensive government

initiatives seek to attain social and

environmental goals

Powerful global and local actors advance

the priority of economic growth

An authoritarian response to security

concerns –– elites retreat to protected

enclaves

Conflicts and crises spiral out of control

and institutions collapse

A highly localist vision that is a strong

theme within the anti-globalization

movement

Seeks to change the character of global

civilization rather than retreat into localism…

..validates global solidarity, cultural cross-fertilization

and economic connectedness..

..in quest of a humanistic,

ecological and liberatory transition

Sustainable Development

Dimensions of Transition

ValuesKnowledge

Demographic

Social

Economic

GovernanceTechnology

… counter consumerism, individualism,

domination of nature

…highlight systemic approaches

…stabilize populations and

create sustainable communities

…ensure rights, eradicate poverty, celebrate diversity

…make the economy a means of serving

people and preserving nature

…build stakeholder partnerships at all

levels

…rely on renewable resources,

industrial ecology A Great Transition would involve changes in all aspects of culture…

Change Agents in the Transition to Sustainability

Intergovernmentalorganizations

Transnational corporationsCivil society

An aware and engaged public

Will the political will emerge?

Will civil society overcome fragmentation and begin to

unify around a common vision?

Will corporations become responsible national citizens?

The answers depend on the quality of awareness and

engagement of the citizens of the world…

…there will be no Transition to Sustainability without citizen action led by a a network of

NGO’s & CBO’s.

John Agard, UWI

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION