Global SUSY analysis with IceCube directly comparing ...mda65/talks/MSSM_scanning.pdf · SD nuclear...

Matthias Danninger

Global SUSY analysis with IceCube&

directly comparing IceCube event-level data with individual SUSY models

IC22 final data

Matthias Danninger Uppsala Meeting 2

New SUSY analysis with IceCube

What can the muon signal tell me?

Roughly:✗ Number – how much annihilation is going on in the Sun

⇒ info on σSD , σSI and <σv>✗ Spectrum – sensitive to WIMP mass mχ and branching

fractions BF into different annihilation channels χ✗ Direction – how likely it is that they come from the Sun

In model-independent analyses a lot of this information is either discarded or not given with final limits

Goal:Use as much of this information on σSD , σSI , <σv> , mχ and BF (χ ) as possible to directly constrain specific points and regions in WIMP model parameter spaces

IceCube Coll. together with:Pat Scott, Chris Savage,Joakim Edsjö

detailed presentation* (TeVPA11)

*Direct link: http://agenda.albanova.se./conferenceDisplay.py?contribId=396&sessionId=255&confId=2600

http://agenda.albanova.se./


DarkSUSY for computing neutrino fluxes:✗ No assumption of equilibrium between capture & annihilation, or ann. final state✗ Inclusion of perturbations to WIMP orbits by Jupiter✗ Full numerical capture treatment. SD and SI scattering on more isotopes, not just H¹✗ Full neutrino production, propagation and oscillation via tabulated WimpSim results✗ Explicit example models - lightest neutralino in SUSY (MSSM-7 and CMSSM)

SUSY model exclusion analysis

Compare observed number of events and predicted number for each model, taking into account systematic uncertainties and construct p-values

→ Model exclusion analysis

Hamish S. (master thesis) and Jenni Adams (Univ. of Canterbury)→ full 25 parameter pMSSM scan for model exclusion analysis


SUSY model exclusion analysis


Global SUSY analysis with IceCube

All was set up first for IceCube-22 string

background flux events observed outside the analysis region



background flux events observed outside the analysis region

All from MC simulations

Conservative estimate of effective Area for IC86, why?

Logical “ OR”



✗ Only partial goodness of fit, no measure of convergence, no idea how to generalise to regions or whole space.

✗ Frequency/density of models in IN/OUT scans means essentially nothing.

Assuming preliminary (conservative) estimate of IC-86 effective area

prel

imina

ry


More information comes from a global statistical fit.→ parameter estimation exercise

Composite likelihood made up of observations from all over:✗ Dark matter relic density from WMAP✗ Precision electroweak tests at LEP & LEP limits on sparticle masses✗ B-factory data (rare decays, b → sγ)✗ Muon anomalous magnetic moment✗ LHC searches, direct detection (not yet included)


+ IceCube unbinned likelihood


SD nuclear scattering cross-section in the CMSSM with IceCube-22 events


✗ Contours indicate 1σ and 2σ credible regions✗ Shading+contours indicate relative probability only, not overall goodness of fit✗ Scans performed with modified SuperBayes 1.5.1 and unreleased DarkSUSY✗ Bayesian posterior: total posterior (prior times llh) is integrated over other dim. of the

space




space





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space



✗ Contours indicate 1σ and 2σ credible regions✗ Scans performed with modified SuperBayes 1.5.1 and unreleased DarkSUSY✗ frequentist profile likelihood: maximising llh in the other dimensions of the parameter

space


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Nothing below 50 GeV x 600

x 100

x 60

x 50x 10

Reasonable assumption to scale IC22 by 100 for expected IC86 sensitivity?




x 100

x 60

x 50x 10

Typical signal spectrum




1000 files each with signal content (6, 60 events on top of data)→ check if excluded or not & which e.g. cross-section the strong signal correspnds

60 events drawn randomly from pdf's

Injected W W (500 GeV) with corresponding SD-cross section of log = -3.4⁺ ⁻ ¹⁰




prel

imina

ry

✗ Contours indicate 1σ and 2σ credible regions✗ Scans performed with modified SuperBayes 1.5.1 and unreleased DarkSUSY✗ frequentist profile likelihood: maximising llh in the other dimensions of the parameter

space

Injected W W (500 GeV) with corresponding SD-cross section of log = -3.4⁺ ⁻ ¹⁰


Closing remarks

✗ Very good progress (Madison meeting only idea was presented)✗ Understand all open issues✗ Improve speed of calculations✗ Method paper with IceCube-22 data as example (IC86 sens.?)✗ Physics paper with IceCube-79 analysis✗ A framework for directly comparing event-level IceCube data to

individual points in theory parameter spaces is in place→ The requisite tools will be available in DarkSUSY in the future→ Event data will eventually be released in a form digestible by the tools→ Direct SUSY analyses of IC79 data are on the way

No new improved experimental analysismuch more comprehensive statistical analysis, containing more detailed information about excludable parameter space → possible big impact in global fits with IceCube-79


Additional Slides


• Nchan distributions are norm. to 1 and given in log10(E) bins of 0.2 as indicated in scatter plot

• Individual histos are written to txt-file for input

Nchan as energy estimator


• Higher stats not possible• It is already extremely high

stats (45y lifetime)• used for signal only, the E-

bins with low statistics will not be used as no solar WIMP-signal-nu can have that high E


Global SUSY analysis with IceCube directly comparing ...mda65/talks/MSSM_scanning.pdf · SD nuclear...

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