Global solar and green photonics - UNC Charlotte...and business model Network choking big concern...
Transcript of Global solar and green photonics - UNC Charlotte...and business model Network choking big concern...
OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association
Global solar and
green photonics: The role of optoelectronics in a
sustainable future
Michael LebbyPresident and CEO
OIDA
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
30mins and 5000 slides
OIDA
Green photonics
Decade markets
Solar opportunities
Summary
OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association
What’s hot today
(and will be hotter in
a decade?)
OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association
OIDA is broadening optoelectronics with
“Green photonics” opportunities
Technology Breadth
Value Chain
Service
Providers
Systems
Modules
Components
Sources: OIDA
Telecom
modules
Telecom
Devices
Sensing
Industrial
Devices
Green - Eco-System “Ecomation”
Green photonics systems and components
Home display, solar cell, lighting windows/panels
Telecom
Systems
Telecom
Carriers
Military
Spec
Devices
Medical &
High power
lasers
Lighting
Modules
Advanced
Materials
Nano/Bio
Packages
Sensing
Industrial
Modules
Lighting
Devices
Opportunities Active Presence
Solar &
Energy
Devices
Wireline/wireless carriers; Lighting architects;
Consumer services; media/content providers
Display
Devices
Solar &
Energy
Modules
Defense
Security
Modules
High Power
laser
modules
Common platforms for Green photonics…
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
‘Green photonics’ value chain
Established Distribution Channels & Partners
Innovative Business Models & Financing
New Photonic Based Energy Products & Systems Efficiency Enablers for Legacy & Alternative Energy
Scalable Manufacturing Tools & Enablers Sensors & Spectroscopy
Dis
pla
ys
Photonic Materials
So
lar D
evic
es &
Syste
ms
Lig
htin
g
Photonic Devices
Co
mm
un
ica
tion
s
Grid
Mo
nito
ring
& E
fficie
ncy
Ch
em
ica
l Op
timiz
atio
n
En
viro
nm
en
tal M
on
itorin
g&
Re
cyclin
g
Win
d T
urb
ine
s
Oil R
eco
ve
ry
Oil E
xp
lora
tion
Liq
uid
Flo
w M
on
itorin
g
Pa
rticu
late
Mo
nito
ring
Co
mb
ustio
n O
ptim
izatio
n
Established Distribution Channels & Partners
Innovative Business Models & Financing
New Photonic Based Energy Products & Systems Efficiency Enablers for Legacy & Alternative Energy
Scalable Manufacturing Tools & Enablers Sensors & Spectroscopy
Dis
pla
ys
Photonic Materials
So
lar D
evic
es &
Syste
ms
Lig
htin
g
Photonic Devices
Co
mm
un
ica
tion
s
Grid
Mo
nito
ring
& E
fficie
ncy
Ch
em
ica
l Op
timiz
atio
n
En
viro
nm
en
tal M
on
itorin
g&
Re
cyclin
g
Win
d T
urb
ine
s
Oil R
eco
ve
ry
Oil E
xp
lora
tion
Liq
uid
Flo
w M
on
itorin
g
Pa
rticu
late
Mo
nito
ring
Co
mb
ustio
n O
ptim
izatio
n
Green…broad impact in photonics
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Examples of ‘Green photonics’ applications
All segments poised for strong growth
TechnologyUnderlying
TechnologyApplication Impact
PhotovoltaicsxSi, pSi, aSi, CdTe,
CIS, CIGS
Power
generation
Renewable energy, reduced carbon
emissions, reduced pollution
Solid State Lighting LEDs, OLEDsIllumination,
Displays
Reduced energy consumption, reduced
mercury pollution
Ultraviolet Disinfection UV LEDsWater
purification
Improved drinking water quality, reduced
mercury pollution
High Efficiency Optical
Transceivers
VCSELs, PIN
detectors, Si
electronics
IT data centers
MilitaryReduced energy consumption
Optical SensorsFiber optics, Bragg
gratings, Detectors
Gas sensing,
environmental
monitoring,
Reduced energy consumption, Reduced
pollution, Reduced green house gas emission
Low Power Displays
OLEDs, LEDs, MEMs,
Electrophoretics,
LCDs
Information and
Entertainment
Display
Reduced energy consumption
Green Optoelectronic
ManufacturingMany Many
Reduced energy consumption, reduced water
consumption, Reduced pollution, Reduced
green house gas emission Source: OIDA
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
In a decade…
a truly ‘green’ vehicle with LEDs and solar panels
It’s not a small footprint (…a smelly one)
Sources: Philips Lumileds, OIDA, George Craford
Pennsylvania, USA (with battery and solar cell)
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
OLED displays (green) have caught imagination of the public…
OLED displays have been
demonstrated and applied in many
product categories
The performance attributes of OLED
displays – thinness, high contrast, high
response speed, … allow designers to
differentiate their product
Sources: Sony, Nokia, iRiver
Organic LED…so we don’t use pesticide
Sources: Phil Wright, OIDA
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Copper cables
Active Optical
Cables
Next generation data flow
Green design saves tons of energy
Sources: OIDA member companies, IBM, Intexys
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Global market share 10yr forecast for lighting
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Photonic (SSL) Lighting Devices
Incand/Other
FL
Photonic lighting forecast over next decade
SSL will grow to ~30% of lighting market by 2018
Will the G8 ban Incand/Mercury in 5yrs?
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Impact of photonic lighting
USA electricity consumption trends
1980 2000 2020
1,000
10,000
11
110
~5x
~3x
~1.5%/yr
US EnergyE
qu
iva
len
t P
rim
ary
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n (
Qu
ad
s/y
r)
US Electricity
with
SSL
US LightingEle
ctr
icit
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n (
TW
h/y
r)
Year
Adapted from M Kendall and M Scholand,
"Energy Savings Potential of SSL
in General Lighting Applications"
(U.S. DOE-OBT study by AD Little, 2001),
and EIA Statistics.
1980 2000 2020
1,000
10,000
11
110
~5x
~3x
~1.5%/yr
US EnergyE
qu
iva
len
t P
rim
ary
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n (
Qu
ad
s/y
r)
US Electricity
with
SSL
US LightingEle
ctr
icit
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n (
TW
h/y
r)
Year
Adapted from M Kendall and M Scholand,
"Energy Savings Potential of SSL
in General Lighting Applications"
(U.S. DOE-OBT study by AD Little, 2001),
and EIA Statistics.
US Electricity Consumption Trends and the Role of Solid State Lighting
Source: Jeff Tsao, Sandia National Laboratories
Green design with LEDs: big impact
OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association
Global trends
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Oil pricing trend (leverage?)
Will the demand be cyclical again?
Source: WTRG economics
Below $70: will demand shrink?
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Global trends
Global electricity
demand to increase
50% by 2025
1.6%/yr for
industrial world
3.6%/yr for
developing world
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Billi
on
s (
peo
ple
)
Year
ICA
PP
04
1850 1900 1950 2050 21002000
6.4
9
0
10
20
30
40
50
ICA
PP
04
Tri
llio
n k
Wh
1850 1900 1950 2050 21002000
Year
13
31
Sources: Bechtel
Opportunity: new generation technologies
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Global solar generation trends
Capacity out grows installations over 2X
OIDA Global solar generation decade forecast
0
50
100
150
200
250
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Po
wer
gen
era
tio
n (
GW
)
PV Installations
PV capacity
OIDA global solar generation decade forecast, 2001-2019
Sources: NREL, EPIA, Photon Consulting, European Commission, IOA, OIDA, EREC, IEA, NEDO, WBG
150GW+ implies strong G8 investment
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Power hogs…
USA 2nd (below Canada) in electricity use
General movement to the right
Sources: UN human development index and electricity use 1999
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
When the sun shines…
Small area can supply our energy needs
Sunlight reaching earth in 1hr is enough for 1 year
Lots of sun hitting the planet…
~3 TW to meet USA needs
Sources: Kurtz NREL
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Solar farms begin…
Driven by Europe and Asia today
Solar tower 200MW of power
Source: Eric Weisoff, Greentechmedia
Reflecting technology projects
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
4 on-grid generation sites(>34MW)
Four Centralized On-Grid Photovoltaic Power Generation Sites Totaling More than 34 MW
Sources: Sunpower
Many examples of big projects
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Can USA be put back on a track of reduced electric use?
Could solar make an impact?
Sources: UN human development index and electricity use 1999
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
USA wakes up…is it too late?
USA state renewable
energy programs
Includes solar and other
(Sept 2007)
Is there enough
momentum to survive
oil pricing turbulence?
Source: www.dsireusa.org
Will the new Gvt accelerate this trend?
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Will the plant be powered by renewable
energy?
2050?
2100?
If ever?
Sources: Kurtz NREL
Important issue in public minds…
OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association
Lifestyle trends
OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association
Once we anticipate future
lifestyle needs, we then have
to see if future technology and
products can support those
needs…
Helps us prepare ourselves..
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Dick Tracy cartoon character
1946 – two-way wrist radio
1964 – wrist TV
Is realizing these concepts green?
2046 – implanted?
2064 – perpetual?
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
In a decade…our communicator will be part of our life…
Consumer
Electronics
TV
Camera/Camcorder
DVD
LED/Lighting
Bio/Medical
Cell phone
Photonics will support our lifestyle
Computer
Laptop
Tablet
Desktop
Peripherals
Store
Virtual
Keyboards
GPS
Communication
Telco
Data
Cable
Storage Networks
FTTP
Chip-to-chip
Camera flashFlash/signal light
Sources: OIDA, Philips, RIM, Digital Optics, Sony Ericsson, HP, Siemens, Apple, OIDA members
Highest bandwidth to
human brain
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Network as a catalyst for change in lifestyle
Social lifestyle personal lifestyle
Before
Computer centric
Experts level
Data exchange
Today
Network centric
Trained level
Archieval/access
Future
User centric
Pedestrian level
KnowledgeableSource: MIC Japan, Fujitsu, NTT
LANPANBAN: lifestyle evolves…
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
In less than a decade…personal informational medic will be part of our life…
Tricorder (web definition) “A scanning device used for Medical,
Geological, Biological, Radiological, Technological, Positronic, Neurological, and many other types of scans. hand held, portable, and accurate.”
Triquarter (web definition) “A Triquarter used for medical purpose. It has
attached to it a cellular scanner and has the ability to scan for injuries, internal bleeding, organ damage and status, biological data, vitals, chemistry data, microscopic scans, neural activity.”
Medical data management/access & mobility
Sources: Paramount, www.angelfire.com
Green medical world: virtualization
OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association
Communications
Photonics
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Video on Demand (VOD) + IPTV is the biggest
change in TV since color
How many of us see going back to Black & White TV?
Today‟s change to High Definition TV resolutions is minor compared to TV‟s
change to interactivity via Personal Video Recorders, Interactive TV & VODSource: Cisco
is this the killer app…?
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Filling the pipes with data…
Triple / Quad play services
HDTV, high speed internet, VoIP and wireless
Content on-demand
YouTube.com
Nico Nico Douga (Japan YouTube)
iTunes
Slingbox (3x bandwidth)
Migration of Mobile Carriers to 3G
Mobile TV
New Content Service Providers
Google, Yahoo, Virgin, MSN….
Finding new uses for the internet…
Sources: Nico nico douga, google, skype, microsoft, youtube, JDSU
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
A new popular vehicle…YouTube
YouTube statistics…
50 petabytes/month as of mid-2007
Approximately 7% of USA Internet traffic
All original broadcast and CATV and radio content adds to ~100
petabytes/yr
YouTube streams that much data in 2 months
YouTube and competitors in infancy
And the worry…
HD version of YouTube may exceed total USA internet traffic…
Sources: Gilder OFC, CIPS, OIDA members
Not another hurricane…
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
YouTube vehicles…
Early adopter user profiles (wrt iPhones)
51% have watched a YouTube video
46% have watched a music video
34% have watched the news
GUI (graphical user interface) is popular
Television is taking off (CTIA April 2008)
Mobility is key
Younger generation concept of
– “Personal and private space”
– Must have a display and audio…
Sources: AT&T, Verizon
Medical is on the next wave
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Mobile industry concerns
Open networks and devices
Loss of control (and revenue)
Virus, security
Becoming “bit pipes”
Monetizing (who will get the financial benefit of openness
Applications
Advertising (Qtrax example of free music downloads)
Entertainment
Apple is pointing the way to more open networks and devices
by …
first entering the market with a closed device and …
then opening the platform to applications developers …
all the while maintaining control and extending their own market
and business model
Network choking big concern also
Sources: OIDA, WRT Associates, LLC (Phil Wright), Apple, Salesforce.com
“Mobile Carriers concerned that open networks and
devices will erode their ownership of the customer”
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Wir
ele
ss S
ub
scri
bers
(M
illi
on
s)
Other Asia/Pac
Japan
Indonesia
India
China
Asia demand for low cost handsets
Highest growth in developing markets (BRIC)
Indian and China forecast >1.5B subscribers by 2018
Growth of Four Largest Wireless Service Markets by Subscriber in Asia
Sources: TIA, OIDA
Asia will drive new trends in wireless
Including USA and Europe ~5B subscribers
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Pe
rce
nt
of
Un
it S
hip
me
nts
5 Mpixel and Up
3 Mpixel and Up
2 Mpixel
1.3 Mpixel
VGA
Camera communicators will be key
By 2010, over 500M camera phones
RIM blackberry popular without camera (Gvt use)
Trend in Camera Phone Resolution
Sources: IC Insights, OIDA
DSC platform…with wireless auxillary
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
In a decade: network choking will be
common-place (traffic jams)…
Source: K. Cambron, AT&T Labs
We’re using more bandwidth…
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Datacom transceiver forecast
Parallel for „short fat pipes‟ emerges quickly
Sources: KMI, Infonetics, Ovum-RHK, OIDA member companies, TIA, IDC, CIR, Gartner, Dell’Oro, Aventis, Prudential Equity, OIDA estimates
Datacom transceiver forecast by form factor 2004 to 2017
$39 $75 $94$222 $240 $265 $294 $327 $365 $369 $378 $379 $374 $361 $342
$148 $162 $193
$226 $259$295
$338$391
$447 $461 $481 $492 $495 $489 $475
$91$105
$129
$161$183
$215$256
$305
$358 $380$408 $431 $449 $463 $472
$1$18
$32
$55$90
$136
$193
$262
$337$357
$387 $408 $420 $423 $416
$6$31
$54
$125
$206
$306
$421
$544
$692$772
$836$886 $916 $926 $916
$90$93
$103
$116
$145
$205
$240
$285
$346
$381
$404
$440$475 $502 $516
$-
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$M
Parallel
SFP+/XFP
XPAK/X2
XENPAK
SFP
SFF
Parallel enables 40G80G120G
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
100Gbps and beyond…
Confidence:
We will fill up the bandwidth just like we fill-up disk space
and memory…
It’s fasten your seat-belt time…
Source: Y2U.co.uk, Ciena
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Potential impact of Green photonics
Last 3yrs - Optoelectronics industry wants „green‟ solutions Vehicle for growth, and maintaining present growth
Potential for growth is attracting capital flow Federal, state, local governments
Investment banks/houses
Venture capitalists
Optoelectronics industry is now adopting „green goals‟ and employing „green manufacturing‟ practices
Caveat Emptor! „Faux Green‟
– What is real or what is imaginary?
Green will be a lifestyle…
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
System evolution to choking…
1990s
2.5-10 Gb/s
channel rate
8,16, 40
Channels
20-160 Gb/s
Capacity
SE = .025-.05
History
2000
10 Gb/s
channel rate
100
Channels
1 Tb/s
Capacity
SE = 0.2
History
2010
100 Gb/s
channel rate
100 channels
10 Tb/s
Capacity
SE = 2.0
Near Future
2020
1 Tb/s !
channel rate
100
Channels
100 Tb/s
Capacity
SE = 20 !
Needed
Even with this aggressive 2020 target, traffic growth
will exceed capacity growth by a factor of 10
SE = Spectral Efficiency = Channel Rate / Channel Spacing
Source: R. Tkach Alcatel-Lucent
Traffic >> capacity by 10X in 2020
OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association
Traffic-jams are
coming…
OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association
Overall photonics
market for the
decade…
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
OIDA (USA) vs OITDA (Japan) 10year forecast for global enabled and
component optoelectronics
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
$ B
illi
on
s
OITDA 10yr forecast
OIDA Enabled + Components
OIDA vs OITDA OE markets
OIDA 2007-2018 CAGR 6.8%
OITDA 2007-2015 CAGR 10.6%
Prospects of OE World Market (billion USD)
50.9167.3
13.6
84.5
134.5
45.5
176.4
275.5
94.5
106.4
139.1
68.2
39.1
72.7
14.5
18.2
65.5
2.7
44.5
73.6
18.2
21.8
40.9
6.4
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2002 2010 2015
264
544
968
AAGR=10.9%
AAGR=12.1%
50.9167.3
13.6
84.5
134.5
45.5
176.4
275.5
94.5
106.4
139.1
68.2
39.1
72.7
14.5
18.2
65.5
2.7
44.5
73.6
18.2
21.8
40.9
6.4
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2002 2010 2015
264
544
968
AAGR=10.9%
AAGR=12.1%
Medical Care / Welfare
Environment / Sensing
Optical (Solar) Energy
Processing
Input & Output
Display / Lighting
Optical Memory
Info-Communications
Medical Care / Welfare
Environment / Sensing
Optical (Solar) Energy
Processing
Input & Output
Display / Lighting
Optical Memory
Info-Communications
Both forecast >> $1T OE enabled business
Sources: OIDA, OITDA
Initial draft forecast:
Awaiting peer review
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Global enabled optoelectronics decadal forecast
(products/systems)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
$ B
illio
ns
Consumer display/TV
Environmental/Sensing
Medical care/Welfare
Communications
Computing/Processing
Transportation
Solar
Defense
Photonics enabled products & systems
3 big segments emerge: display/TV, PC, solar
All 8 segments benefit: green photonics
Sources: OIDA, OIDA members, IOA members, PIDA, OITDA
Display/TV
Solar
Computing
Initial draft forecast:
Awaiting peer review
Dog-leg slowing
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Global optoelectronics components market and decadal forecast
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
$ B
illi
on
s
Solid state lighting
Optical lens and laser
Optical fiber comm
Optical storage
Optical I/O devices
Flat panel displays
Optical components
Global photonics components market
Growing from $345B in 2007 to $608B in 2018
FPD big driver CAGR 5.5%; SSL still best growth CAGR 49%
Photonic Lighting big opportunity
Sources: OIDA, OIDA members, IOA members, PIDA, OITDA
FPD
Photonic Lighting
Initial draft forecast:
Awaiting peer reviewOptical Components
Optical I/O devices
Optical storageOptical lens & laser
Optical fiber communications
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Display decadal forecast by type 2005 to 2018
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Reven
ues (
$M
illio
ns)
CRT
Other
OLED
Plasma
LCD
Display trends over next decade
Sources: OIDA, Display Search, iSupply, Displaybank, Corning
What will be the killer app for OLEDs?
OLEDs expected to
grow into huge
opportunity
a-Si TFT becoming
the silicon (Vs
GaAs) of displays
OLEDs are going
head-to-head with a-
Si TFT (tough battle
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Ratio of HBLED to OLED in enabled lighting market over next
decade
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Perc
en
tag
e (
%)
OLED
HBLED
Photonic lighting market
Growth of OLED lighting forecast to 10% by 2018
Main issue will not be spec‟s but will be COST!
OLED cost structures still too high…
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Where has the value gone?
Both segments follow linear growth trends over decade
Nondiode share grows to 54% by 2017
Revenue Comparison Diode vs. Nondiode Laser
Performance
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Re
ve
nu
e (
$B
illio
ns
) Diode
Nondiode
Linear (Diode)
Linear (Nondiode)
ASP erosion in diodes expected to be high
Sources: OIDA, OIDA members, Laser Focus, OIDA consultants
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Worldwide laser diode market history from 1996
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Reven
ue (
$k) Other
Optical Storage
Telecom
total
Diode lasers will struggle to grow revenue
Telecom experiencing margin erosion
Optical storage squeezed out by flash
Telecom and storage entering maturity?
Sources: OIDA, OIDA members, Laser Focus, OIDA consultants
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Diode laser revenues by application
Where is the new cash cow?
Diode laser revenues by segment
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
4500000
2005 2006 2007 2008
Re
ve
nu
es
($
k)
Diode Pump Lasers
Other
Sensing
Barcode Scanning
Inspection, Measurement, Control
Image Recording
Entertainment
Optical Storage
Telecom
Basic Research
Instrumentation
Medical
Materials Processing
Sources: OIDA, OIDA members, Laser Focus, OIDA consultants
Optical storage will continue to suffer margin erosion
Diode pump lasers grow 62.8% in 2006 over 2005
OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association
Solar – is this the
time for sunrise?
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Solar technology is 19th Century…
1839: PV effect recognized by French physicist Alexandre-Edmond Becquerel
1883: Charles Fritts first solar cell (Se/Au for 1% eff)
1946: Russell Ohl patented modern solar cell design
1954: Bell Labs noticed doped s/c were sensitive to light
1958: Hoffman electronics (9%), 1960 (14%)
1985: University of South Wales (20%)
1994: NREL using GaInP/GaAs (30%)
2006: Boeing-spectrolab (40.7%)
2008: NREL (40.8%)
NB: Uof Delaware claimed 42.8% in 2007Telstar 1962
Russell Ohl
Becquerel
Sources: NREL, Wikiepedia, Gourdin, OIDA
Now realizing the huge investment…
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
A solar bubble?
Rapid growth in PV modules is predicted
Production for 2012 is being sold today based on the
output of manufacturing facilities that have not yet been
built.
Revenues from these advance sales are being used to
finance the production facilities needed.
Source: EPIC, OIDA, IOA
Looks and feels like the dotcom bubble
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Global solar decade forecast
Market expected to approach $160B in 2019
OIDA Global solar decade forecast
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Rev
en
ue
(U
S$
Billi
on
s)
Others services
Installation
Other components
Inverter
Module
Sources: NREL, EPIA, European Commission, IOA, OIDA, CLSA, Photon Consulting
Will the mkt mature in a decade?
Initial draft forecast:
Awaiting peer review
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
PV industry historic perspective
Majority Si for roof-
tops
PV electricity
<0.1% today
With growth
>5% in 2020
Growth as per LCD
displays 100X+
May well be bigger
than displays…
Sources: Photon International, Rogol, NREL
Industry doubled every 2yrs
Global history of PV distribution (to 2007)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
So
lar
ge
ne
rati
on
(G
W)
Germany
RoEurope
Japan
RoAsia
USA
RoW
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Global distribution of PV markets
Global distribution of PV markets
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
So
lar
ge
ne
rati
on
(G
W)
Germany
RoEurope
Japan
RoAsia
USA
RoW
Sources: NREL, EPIA, European Commission, IOA, OIDA
USA not expected to lead this field
Initial draft forecast:
Awaiting peer review
OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association
Europe
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
11 megawatt plant in Serpa, Portugal
Project led by GE
52 000 panels
200 watts each
Project cost: 75
million euros
Installed in 6
months
Operational since
Jan 2007
Cover the land…
Sources: EPIC, eupvplatform.org, EPIA
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
PV Project in Alentejo, Portugal
Output power of 116 megawatts, 10 times larger
Located in a former copper mine in Alentejo (southern)
The new station would be several times the size of what is now the world's largest solar energy plant.
A consortium led by Siemens plans to erect 116 hexagonal clusters of solar panels.
A German manufacturer of solar panels has said it also plans to build a factory at the site, bringing 250 permanent jobs to one of the poorest regions of Europe.
Investment would total €426m
116MW – plants are scaling up
Sources: EPIC, eupvplatform.org, EPIA
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
6.3MW solar park in Germany
Germany quick to harness alternative energy sources
Source: Eric Weisoff, Greentechmedia
Bigger than the towns…
OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association
Japan
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Japanese solar cells last 3 decades
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Ph
oto
vo
ltaic
Cells P
rod
ucti
on
(b
illio
n Y
en
)
$5B Supply
shortage
Sources: OITDA, IOA
Business taken-off last decade
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Japanese PV output by destination
for Domestic:
268.2 MW
Am
ou
nt
of
Sh
ipm
en
t (
MW
)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
OITDA and JPEA (Japan Photovoltaic Energy Association)
for Export:
603.5 MW
Sources: OITDA, IOA, JPEA
Japan positioned well in global mkt
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Installed PV power in IEA countries
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
DEU
JPN
USA
Others in IEA-PVPS countries
Cu
mu
lati
ve i
nsta
lled
PV
po
wer
(MW
)
Sources: OITDA, IOA, IEA-PVPS
Installations charts all talk of GW now…
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Global solar cell decade trends
Growth rates are expected to slow in the next 2yrs
OIDA Global solar cell decade forecast
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Re
ve
nu
e (
US
$B
illi
on
s)
Sources: NREL, EPIA, European Commission, IOA, OIDA, CLSA, Photon Consulting
ASP erosion, lots of competition
Initial draft forecast:
Awaiting peer review
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Global solar module decade trends
Wafers and silicon technology will be strong components
OIDA Global solar module decade forecast
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Re
ve
nu
e (
US
$B
illi
on
s)
Cell
Wafer
Silicon and other
feedstocks
Sources: NREL, EPIA, European Commission, IOA, OIDA
Margins will tighten over decade
Initial draft forecast:
Awaiting peer review
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Drive to efficient module costs
Learning curve manf costs: C-Si, thin films, concentrators
PV module decade cost curve trends
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
Av
era
ge
ma
nf
co
st
($/W
p)
Average solar manf cost(NREL)
Expected cost (OIDA)
PV module decade cost curves, 1991-2019
Sources: NREL, Ward-ABRe, EPIA, Photon Consulting, OIDA
Industry ‘ripe’ for low cost redesigns
Just like datacom transceivers
low cost redesigns
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Solar silicon wafer thickness trends
Goal of <100um wafer for solar will be achieved
Silicon wafer thickness trends
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Th
ick
ne
ss
(u
m)
Sources: NREL, EPIA, European Commission, IOA, OIDA
Thin film will provide competitive drive
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Silicon semiconductor usage
Solar usage is expected to surpass 50% in 2008…
Silicon Useage by Sector - 2005
Solar Industry
46%
Electronics
Sector
54%
Silicon Usage by Sector - 2006E
Solar Industry
49%
Electronics
Sector
51%
Sources: CLSA Asia-Pacific Market Estimates
Minimizing silicon is key…
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Global solar decade technology trends
Thin film grows from ~10% today to ~ 50% in 2019OIDA Global decade technology forecast
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
ribbon sheet c-Silicon
CIS/CIGS
Mono c-Silicon
Multi c-Silicon
CdTe
a-Silicon
Sources: NREL, EPIA, Photon Consulting, European Commission, IOA, OIDA
Industry is embracing thin film…
Initial draft forecast:
Awaiting peer review
OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association
Concentrator technology
comes of age…
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Where are we going in CPV?
Why use concentration?
Reduced use of semiconductor material
Challenges:
Cell efficiency, cost, reliability, handling, mounting
System integration
Status of industry- – movement towards vertical integration?
Cell suppliers
High-concentration CPV companies using multi-junction
Low-concentration CPV companies lower cost at lower concentration
Other aspects of supply chain
Sources: NREL, OIDA
Concentrator economics now important
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Why bother with concentrators?
Reduce the amount of expensive semiconductor material
Using silicon as the example:
Silicon cells can run to about 70% to 80% of the module cost!
Concentrator
Cost balanced by design/optics
MJ (and more expensive optics)
Sources: NREL
Solar cell
Thin Film
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Typical CPV systems
Dish requiring active cooling
Energy directed at focal point
Micro-dishes
On-board passive cooling
– With heat pipes
Avoids shading
Array of Fresnel lenses
Focus light onto small cells
Heat distributed: passive cooling
Sources: NREL
Huge variety of innovative designs
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Why use multi-junction solar cells?
Highest efficiency
Absorb each color with a material band gap equal to the photon energy
Means different material for different color band gap engineering
5x1017
4
3
2
1
0
Sola
r spect
rum
43210
Photon energy (eV)
Band gapof 0.75 eV
5x1017
4
3
2
1
0
So
lar
sp
ect
rum
43210
Photon energy (eV)
Band gapof 2.5 eV
Performance driven by band gap eng
Power = I x V
Low band gap
Lots to absorb
High I, Low V
High band gap
Less to absorb
High V, Low I
Sources: Kurtz NREL
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Quad multi-junction device
Commercially 3 to 4 junctions
Multiple materials to emulate the
solar spectrum
Blue light absorbed by high band
gap material
Passes lower energy light
Device sorts the light
Lower energy light at the top
in
4 5 6 7 8 91 2 3 4
Energy (eV)
Key is epi competence (5/6 MJ coming)
Sources: Kurtz NREL
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
NREL with latest world record
40.8% by Geisz
(MJ: 1 sun)
MJ slope highest expect 45% soon
Source: NREL
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
MJ modular cell designed for quality
Most common designed MJ cell today
Both lattice matched and mis-matched varieties to Ge substrates
Mis-matched: Spectralab („07) structure achieved 40.7%
Lattice matched version: 36/37% typical (Emcore 39%)
Ge bottom cell
and substrate
Grade
GaInAs middle cell
GaInP top cell 1.8 eV
1.3 eV
0.7 eV
Sources: King – Spectralab, NREL
Modular design will permit higher %
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Inverted MJ cell (new approach)
Grow device upside down
Best result: 40.8% @ 325 suns
Easier to grade to larger
lattice constant, gives lower
band gap (flexibility)
Substrate reuse cost
advantage (Ge alternative)
Easier route to 50% device
Handling issue (thin film)
Material usage lower gm/Watt
– Assume substrate reuseGaInAs bottom
cell
Grade
GaAs middle cell
GaInP top cell 1.8 eV
1.3 eV
0.9 eV
Sources: Geisz NREL
High efficiency means small PDA product
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Adapting from space to terrestrial
Manual test/mount
4” wafer, big cell
Auto test/mount
4” wafer small cell
0.1 W/sq cm 50 W/sq cm
Sources: Geisz NREL
Drive to automated testing…
Sunlight is now concentrated:
Series R heat issue
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Bonding is major issue for industry…
Low cost – need automation and advanced testing Bonding to optics important
(50W/sq cm)
Heat sink – temp cycling important
Most cell companies not interested in assembly… Optics companies don‟t have
experience in mounting cells
Major players: core skills Emcore, Spire, Spectralab,
Delta
Cell
Heat sink
Concentrator
Cell assembly needs to be engineered
Optical bond 100% T
~50W/sq cm
Electrical contactElectrical Isolation
Small T (<10C)
Sources: Kurtz NREL
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Grand challenges in CPV systems
Cell assembly and system integration
Current status:
System determines receiver design, so every CPV system may
need new design
Need automated cell mounting
Receiver designs must be carefully tested
The need for custom-designed receivers (and their integration
with the optics) is acute today…
Who should do this? cell supplier, system integrator, other?
Sources: Kurtz NREL
Many opportunities for start-ups…
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Industry needs (presently)
Substrates (Ge; could be GaAs in future)
Optics
Structural materials
Heat sinks
Electrical isolation
Alignment tools
Trackers
Power conditioning
Just as HBLED industry growth
has benefited from system
integrators, and related
component manufacturers…
…CPV requires a full range of
components
We can learn from other photonics mkts
Sources: Kurtz NREL
OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association
Organic solar
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Adding new technologies to the NREL chart
Hybrid:
Nanocrystal/polymer
Marching towards 10%...
Hybrid
• Nanocrystal/polymer
6.0%
Organic Cells: Still
emerging from the lab
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Hero experiments for OPV
Single photoactive layer
NREL certified 5.98%
Aperture = 0.044cm2
Cell size ~ 0.1cm2
Sources: Plextronics, NREL, OIDA
OPV approaching 6%
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Organic PV
Solution process based materials >50% deposition solution processing
100% possible
Cost Must be <$50/m2
Must be <$0.5/W
Plastic substrate
Lifetime Must be equal to in-organic
Efficiency Must get higher
– 10% single
– 15% tandem
Work well in low light/angle
Weight Must be <0.5um active layer
Cost is major issue for solar & lighting
Sources: Plextronics, NREL, OIDA
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Roof-top testing of organic PV
Western PA initial data promising
Technology advancing for OPV
Sources: Plextronics, NREL, OIDA
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
OPV – organic has wide potential
OPV Potential
Operates well under
various lighting sources
Low dependence on
angle of incidence
Flexible/conformable
form factor
On-Grid Power
Off-Grid Power
Rural Power
Transportation
Active
Clothing
Battery
Charging
Consumer Products
Micro-devices
Wireless SensorsSmart Packaging
Sources: IMEC, Avesco Displays, OIDA, Plextronics
Many grid/non-grid applications
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Perhaps printing solar cells is the answer…
Organic carbon based inks technology
Printing process allows continuous roll process
Lower capital investment (no clean room, vacuum, or silicon)
Source: Konarka, sharp
Capital investment in plant: big driver
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Flex substrate technologies
Source: Eric Weisoff, Greentechmedia, Power plastic
Thin film opens new doors to consumer…
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
OLED display market forecast by application 2004-2018
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Reven
ue (
$M
illio
ns)
Other
OLED Lighting
Fashion Clothing
Health/sensing
Automotive
Television
Notebook
Monitor
PMP
Mobile Main
Mobile Sub
Global OLEDs over next decade
Television biggest driver for OLEDs
Solar still to be forecasted…
TV
Sources: Display Search, OIDA, iSupply, OIDA members, IOA
OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association
On-grid solar
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
On-grid solar generating systems
Solar module DC; inverter AC electrical devices
Electricity meter tracks usage (spins forward/backward)
Surplus is sent to the grid for reselling
Source: Photowatt
Key components for solar grid
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Global PV trends for grid
Commercial systems accelerate; total >50GW by 2019
Global PV trends for grid based systems
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
So
lar
ge
ne
rati
on
(G
W)
Grid Other
Grid residential
Grid commercial
Source: Navigant Consulting, EPIA, IOA, OIDA, Plextronics
Commercial solar strong growth
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
On-grid feed-in at peak usage time
Solar energy matches peak usage times
Requires managing power fed by distributed solar sources24h-Energy Profile
0:0
0
6:0
0
12
:00
18
:00
24
:00
Ele
ctr
ica
l E
ne
rgy
[a
rb. u
nit
s]
Low Tariff Low TariffHigh Tariff
Electricity supplied by
Utility
Fed-In
Energy
Solar Energy
Energy consumption of building
Electricity supplied by
Utility
Using solar to manage demand
Sources: RWE Energie AG and RSS GmbH, Courtesy EPIA
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
On-grid info-mative displays
Used to allow residents to monitor electric usage inside
the home with a mobile display
Source: Sharp
Residential solar displays
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
On-grid residential applications
Innovative rooftop designs
Sources: PIDA
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
PVs integrated into buildings
Decorative pattern elements on transparent panels
Sources: WCRE-World Council for Renewable Energy
Aesthetics: popular/differentiator
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Commercial on-grid systems
Parking structure with solar modules, US Navy, Ca
Source: Powerlight Corporation
Large size is typical (upto 1MW)
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
On-grid commercial solar systems
Visible integrated building architecture
Whitehall ferry terminal – New York City
Source: WCRE-World Council for Renewable Energy, Atlantis Energy Systems, Inc
OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association
Off-grid solar
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Off-grid solar generating systems
No connection to electricity utility provider
Solar module, regulator for protection, battery, inverter (for AC)
(1) MPV module, (2) regulation charge/battery, (3) lighting, (4)
refridgeration, (5) household appliances
Remote applications: DC powered
Source: Photowatt
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Global PV trends for non-grid
Total approaches 6GW by 2019: remote applications ke
Off- grid products typically higher cost/ASP than grid solutions
Global PV trends for non-grid based systems
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
so
lar
ge
ne
rati
on
(G
W)
Remote environment
Consumer products
Source: Navigant Consulting, EPIA, IOA, OIDA, Plextronics
Consumer will jazz PV products
Handheld Electronics
Other Habitation
Village Power
Outdoor Recreation
Consumer Indoor
Water Pumping
Trans Signals
Cathodic Prot
Comm. & Tel
Outdoor Lighting
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Solar in consumer products
Solar Charger for iPod Portable Media Player
Sources: Soldius
Consumer products
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Solar products for the environment
Solar Charger Container for UV LED Water Purifier
Sources: Hydro Photon, Steripen Adventurer
Solar charger for UV purifier
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Off-grid solar module applications
Remote developing rural geographical areas
Examples show Raotan, Honduras and Botswana
Key for building infrastructure
Sources: Kyocera, Rain or Shine Power KG Electric Solar Power Company, Johannesburg, South Africa
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Stand-alone consumer products
Off-grid subset include home landscaping, solar
powered fountains. Chargers for electronics products
High efficiency & reliability not the key metric
Low power, flex substrates key
Sources: Simply Fountains
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Solar cells in automotive
White Glass Cover with Integrated Solar Cells Sun shade with Blower Cascade
Roof-operated Solar
Ventilation
Novel applications progressing
Sources: PIDA
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Solar energy
Off-grid applications include residential opportunities
New solar trees?
Sources: PIDA
OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association
Roadmap trends
OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association
80
60
40
20
0
Effic
iency,
%
0 200 400 600 800 1000Cost per Area $ / m2
$3.50/W
$1.00/W
$0.50/W$0.20/W$0.10/WThermodynamic Limit
∞ Junction Limit
5-6 Junction Limit
Single Junction Limit
SunPower 21.5% cell
Legend
Shell 14% cell
Sharp 15% cell
Sanyo 19% celln
n
BP Solar 14.2% celln
nThin
Film
Silicon
OIDA solar trends 2008
OIDA Solar cell platform roadmap
Sources: Silex, OIDA
Concentrator
Multi-Junction
1st Generation: c-Si
2nd Generation: a-Si, poly Si, CdTe,
CIGS-CIS, Nanocrystals, PEC,
Polymer, Dye sensitized (DSSC)
3rd Generation: Hybrid cells,
Inorganic/polymer mix, MJ,
concentration, hybrid solutions
4th Generation: Low cost, high
efficiency
4th Gen
OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association
Economics
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Will the solar industry meet grid parity?
Economies of solar in Cost/kWh fundamental driver
Today ~28c/kWhr (Ca) before subsidies (~14c after)
Verses ~11c-34c for retail electricity costsGlobal solar industry trends (Cost/Watt)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Co
st/
Year
(c/k
Wh
)
Conventional electricity cost
Solar cost (unsubsidized)
Solar cost (subsidized)
Expect grid parity
with subsidy
around 2010-12
Expect grid parity
without subsidy
around 2014-16
Assumes
conventional energy
price +3% per year
Subsidy or not – is this real?
Source: Morgan Stanley, Street Research
Michael Lebby ([email protected])
Summary
Green photonics has arrived
Energy efficiency – thinking and designing will be important
Optoelectronics markets will still grow
In spite of turbulent economic times (displays, solar)
Many new exciting opportunities
Solar technology is now running with the „big boys‟
Momentum (oil pricing, global warming, political messaging)
Companies are over-priced, over-sold, over-valued – bubble…
Demand is high – will consumers pay extra for solar?
Hope is that Gvts continue to support renewable energy
Thin film, concentrators, will help drive new heights in performance
Shake-out – sure – we‟re just a seedling today…
OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association
END