Global Risk Forum Davos · Davos Global Risk Forum. Davos. David Alexander. GRF - Davos (CH) Global...

20
Global Risk Forum Davos Global Risk Forum Global Risk Forum Davos Davos David Alexander David Alexander GRF GRF - - Davos Davos (CH) (CH)

Transcript of Global Risk Forum Davos · Davos Global Risk Forum. Davos. David Alexander. GRF - Davos (CH) Global...

Page 1: Global Risk Forum Davos · Davos Global Risk Forum. Davos. David Alexander. GRF - Davos (CH) Global Risk Forum DavosGlobal Risk Forum Davos • Formal co-operation agreements with

Global Risk ForumDavos

Global Risk ForumGlobal Risk ForumDavosDavos

David AlexanderDavid AlexanderGRF GRF --

DavosDavos

(CH)(CH)

Page 2: Global Risk Forum Davos · Davos Global Risk Forum. Davos. David Alexander. GRF - Davos (CH) Global Risk Forum DavosGlobal Risk Forum Davos • Formal co-operation agreements with

Global Risk Forum DavosGlobal Risk Forum DavosGlobal Risk Forum Davos

• Formal co-operation agreements withEU, UN, China, Singapore, etc..

•• Formal coFormal co--operation operation agreements agreements withwithEU, UN, China, Singapore, etc.EU, UN, China, Singapore, etc...

Network of collaboration

with 12 UNorganisations, 40 international organisationsand many academic and research institutions.

•• Network of Network of collaborationcollaboration

with 12 UNwith 12 UNorganisations, 40 international organisationsorganisations, 40 international organisationsand many academic and research institutions.and many academic and research institutions.

Three biennial International Disasterand Risk Conferences (2006-2010) held:a fourth is planned for August 2012.

•• Three biennial Three biennial International DisasterInternational Disasterand Risk Conferences and Risk Conferences (2006(2006--2010) held:2010) held:a fourth is planned for August 2012.a fourth is planned for August 2012.

• Funded by Swiss federal, cantonal and localgovernment, private sector, other sources.

•• Funded by Swiss federal, cantonal and localFunded by Swiss federal, cantonal and localgovernment, private sector, other sources.government, private sector, other sources.

Founded in 2008 by Dr. WalterJ. Ammann CEO and President

•• Founded in 2008 by Dr. WalterFounded in 2008 by Dr. WalterJ. Ammann CEO and PresidentJ. Ammann CEO and President

Page 3: Global Risk Forum Davos · Davos Global Risk Forum. Davos. David Alexander. GRF - Davos (CH) Global Risk Forum DavosGlobal Risk Forum Davos • Formal co-operation agreements with

Risk AcademyRisk Academy

ThinkThink--tanktankIssue andIssue andknowledgeknowledge

managementmanagementTraining Training coursescoursesPublic Public

awarenessawarenessEE--journal journal

(good practice)(good practice)

IDRCIDRCDavos Davos BiennialBiennial

InternationalInternationalConferenceConference

IDRC IDRC regionalregional

conferencesconferencesand and

workshopsworkshops

Planet@riskPlanet@risk

WebWeb--basedbasednetworkingnetworkingplatformplatform

StakeholderStakeholdermanagementmanagement

GRF PillarsGRF Pillars

Page 4: Global Risk Forum Davos · Davos Global Risk Forum. Davos. David Alexander. GRF - Davos (CH) Global Risk Forum DavosGlobal Risk Forum Davos • Formal co-operation agreements with

GRF Davos Risk AcademyGRF Davos Risk Academy

is ais athinkthink--tank for risk reduction,tank for risk reduction,disaster management, climatedisaster management, climatechange and other risk issues.change and other risk issues.

Page 5: Global Risk Forum Davos · Davos Global Risk Forum. Davos. David Alexander. GRF - Davos (CH) Global Risk Forum DavosGlobal Risk Forum Davos • Formal co-operation agreements with

GRF Risk AcademyGRF Risk Academy

R&DR&D••project development project development on integrated riskon integrated risk

managementmanagement

Services & ProductsServices & Products••ee--journaljournal••regular updatesregular updates

on global riskon global risk••GRF edited booksGRF edited books

EducationEducation••training coursestraining courses••workshopsworkshops••public lecturespublic lectures••publicationspublications

Awareness raisinAwareness raisingg••exhibitionsexhibitions••movie screeningsmovie screenings••public round tablespublic round tables

Page 6: Global Risk Forum Davos · Davos Global Risk Forum. Davos. David Alexander. GRF - Davos (CH) Global Risk Forum DavosGlobal Risk Forum Davos • Formal co-operation agreements with

a programme of serial publications•• a programme of serial a programme of serial publicationspublications

• two major international conferences•• two major international two major international conferencesconferences

a suite of disaster management courses•• a suite of disaster management a suite of disaster management coursescourses

• a series of research proposals

on disaster risk reduction and resilience.

•• a series of research a series of research proposalsproposals

on on disaster risk reduction and resiliencedisaster risk reduction and resilience..

Current GRF Projects:-Current GRF Projects:Current GRF Projects:--

Page 7: Global Risk Forum Davos · Davos Global Risk Forum. Davos. David Alexander. GRF - Davos (CH) Global Risk Forum DavosGlobal Risk Forum Davos • Formal co-operation agreements with

GRF One Health Summit 2012One Health – One Planet – One Future

Risks and Opportunities19-23 February 2012Davos, Switzerland

www.grforum.org

Page 8: Global Risk Forum Davos · Davos Global Risk Forum. Davos. David Alexander. GRF - Davos (CH) Global Risk Forum DavosGlobal Risk Forum Davos • Formal co-operation agreements with

4th International Disaster and Risk Conference

IDRC Davos 2012Integrative Risk Management in a Changing World

26- 30 August 2012Davos / Switzerlandwith pre- and post-conference events

For up-to-date information and to sign up for our newsletter please visitwww.grforum.org

From Thought to Action

Page 9: Global Risk Forum Davos · Davos Global Risk Forum. Davos. David Alexander. GRF - Davos (CH) Global Risk Forum DavosGlobal Risk Forum Davos • Formal co-operation agreements with

Earthquakes and HousingHow to Develop a Survival StrategyEarthquakes and HousingEarthquakes and HousingHow to Develop a Survival StrategyHow to Develop a Survival Strategy

Recent research by Recent research by David AlexanderDavid Alexander

Page 10: Global Risk Forum Davos · Davos Global Risk Forum. Davos. David Alexander. GRF - Davos (CH) Global Risk Forum DavosGlobal Risk Forum Davos • Formal co-operation agreements with

Damage level 1:minimum

Damage level 1:Damage level 1:minimumminimum

Damage level 2:mainly non-structural

Damage level 2:Damage level 2:mainly nonmainly non--structuralstructural

Damage level 3:architectural

Damage level 3:Damage level 3:architecturalarchitectural

Damage level 4:serious structuralDamage level 4:Damage level 4:serious structuralserious structural

Damage level 5:collapse

Damage level 5:Damage level 5:collapsecollapse

Character-isation ofdamage forassessmentof personalrisk level

CharacterCharacter--isation ofisation ofdamage fordamage forassessmentassessmentof personalof personalrisk levelrisk level

Page 11: Global Risk Forum Davos · Davos Global Risk Forum. Davos. David Alexander. GRF - Davos (CH) Global Risk Forum DavosGlobal Risk Forum Davos • Formal co-operation agreements with

Poor buildingquality

(low seismicresistance)

Poor buildingPoor buildingqualityquality

(low seismic(low seismicresistance)resistance)

Proximityto epicentreand faultrupture

ProximityProximityto epicentreto epicentreand faultand faultrupturerupture

TopographicamplificationTopographicTopographicamplificationamplification

SedimentaryamplificationSedimentarySedimentaryamplificationamplification

QQQ EEE

TTT SSSConcentrationof casualties

C

ConcentrationConcentrationof casualtiesof casualties

CC

C = f { E,Q,S,T }C = C = f f { E,Q,S,T }{ E,Q,S,T }

Page 12: Global Risk Forum Davos · Davos Global Risk Forum. Davos. David Alexander. GRF - Davos (CH) Global Risk Forum DavosGlobal Risk Forum Davos • Formal co-operation agreements with

The 2009 L'Aquila (Italy) earthquakeThe 2009 L'Aquila (Italy) earthquakeThe 2009 L'Aquila (Italy) earthquake

03.32 hrs, Monday 6 April 2009Magnitude Mw

6,3

Duration 25 secondsAcceleration on hard rock 0,3g

Acceleration on sediments 0,7-1,0gPart of an earthquake swarm from

October 2008 to July 2009308 deaths, 1500 injuries.

03.32 hrs, Monday 6 April 200903.32 hrs, Monday 6 April 2009Magnitude MMagnitude Mww

6,36,3

Duration 25 secondsDuration 25 secondsAcceleration on hard rock 0,3gAcceleration on hard rock 0,3g

Acceleration on sediments 0,7Acceleration on sediments 0,7--1,0g1,0gPart of an earthquake swarm fromPart of an earthquake swarm from

October 2008 to July 2009October 2008 to July 2009308 deaths, 1500 injuries308 deaths, 1500 injuries..

Page 13: Global Risk Forum Davos · Davos Global Risk Forum. Davos. David Alexander. GRF - Davos (CH) Global Risk Forum DavosGlobal Risk Forum Davos • Formal co-operation agreements with

6-25 deaths 3-5 deaths 1-2 deaths

Clustersof multiple

deaths

ClustersClustersof multipleof multiple

deathsdeaths

n=202

L'Aquila city

One or two individualsOne or two individualsOne or two individuals

No deathsNo deathsNo deaths

Page 14: Global Risk Forum Davos · Davos Global Risk Forum. Davos. David Alexander. GRF - Davos (CH) Global Risk Forum DavosGlobal Risk Forum Davos • Formal co-operation agreements with

No deaths:housing stock wasin relatively good

condition anddamage was limited

No deaths:No deaths:housing stock washousing stock wasin relatively goodin relatively good

condition andcondition anddamage was limiteddamage was limited

Damage/riskscale: 1-2

Damage/riskDamage/riskscale: 1scale: 1--22

Page 15: Global Risk Forum Davos · Davos Global Risk Forum. Davos. David Alexander. GRF - Davos (CH) Global Risk Forum DavosGlobal Risk Forum Davos • Formal co-operation agreements with

One or two individuals:people rushed outsideand were killed byfalling masonry

One or two individuals:One or two individuals:people rushed outsidepeople rushed outsideand were killed byand were killed byfalling masonryfalling masonry

Damage/riskscale: 3-4

Damage/riskDamage/riskscale: 3scale: 3--44

Page 16: Global Risk Forum Davos · Davos Global Risk Forum. Davos. David Alexander. GRF - Davos (CH) Global Risk Forum DavosGlobal Risk Forum Davos • Formal co-operation agreements with

... or inthe collapseof stairwells.

... or in... or inthe collapsethe collapseof stairwells.of stairwells.

Page 17: Global Risk Forum Davos · Davos Global Risk Forum. Davos. David Alexander. GRF - Davos (CH) Global Risk Forum DavosGlobal Risk Forum Davos • Formal co-operation agreements with

Clusters of multiple deaths:

spectacular collapsesof multi-occupancybuildings with up

to 25 deaths each:topographic

amplification was anadditional factor.

Clusters of Clusters of multiple deaths:multiple deaths:

spectacular collapsesspectacular collapsesof multiof multi--occupancyoccupancybuildings with upbuildings with up

to 25 deaths each:to 25 deaths each:topographictopographic

amplification was anamplification was anadditional factoradditional factor..

Damage/riskscale: 5

Damage/riskDamage/riskscale: 5scale: 5

Page 18: Global Risk Forum Davos · Davos Global Risk Forum. Davos. David Alexander. GRF - Davos (CH) Global Risk Forum DavosGlobal Risk Forum Davos • Formal co-operation agreements with

Mid-floor damage to multi-occupancy bldg:Mid-floor damage to multi-occupancy bldg:

Intertia effectIntertia effectIntertia effect

Basal accelerationBasal accelerationBasal acceleration

Interaction = damageInteraction = damageInteraction = damage

Lack of stiffness in frameLack of stiffness in frameLack of stiffness in frame

Page 19: Global Risk Forum Davos · Davos Global Risk Forum. Davos. David Alexander. GRF - Davos (CH) Global Risk Forum DavosGlobal Risk Forum Davos • Formal co-operation agreements with

Models of typical Models of typical vernacular housingvernacular housing

building typesbuilding types

Analysis ofAnalysis ofcharacteristiccharacteristicfailure modesfailure modes

DeterminationDeterminationof appropriateof appropriatecrisis behaviourcrisis behaviour

Education andEducation andtraining oftraining ofhouseholdshouseholds

Culture ofCulture ofprotectionprotection

and resilienceand resilience

Page 20: Global Risk Forum Davos · Davos Global Risk Forum. Davos. David Alexander. GRF - Davos (CH) Global Risk Forum DavosGlobal Risk Forum Davos • Formal co-operation agreements with

emergency-planning.blogspot.comwww.slideshare.net/dealexander

[email protected]

emergency-planning.blogspot.comwww.slideshare.net/dealexanderwww.slideshare.net/dealexander

[email protected]