GLOBAL REPORT JUNE 2017 - Catalyst Fund Managers · GLOBAL REPORT JUNE 2017 The FTSE EPRA/NAREIT...

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CONTENTS GLOBAL REPORT JUNE 2017 GLOBAL REPORT JUNE 2017 | Page 1, 2 1 GLOBAL LISTED PROPERTY REVIEW | Page 3 2 REGIONAL SNAPSHOT NORTH AMERICA | Page 4 3 REGIONAL SNAPSHOT EUROPE | Page 5 4 REGIONAL SNAPSHOT ASIA | Page 6 5

Transcript of GLOBAL REPORT JUNE 2017 - Catalyst Fund Managers · GLOBAL REPORT JUNE 2017 The FTSE EPRA/NAREIT...

CONTENTS

GLOBAL REPORTJUNE 2017

GLOBAL REPORT JUNE 2017 | Page 1, 21

GLOBAL LISTED PROPERTY REVIEW | Page 32

REGIONAL SNAPSHOT NORTH AMERICA | Page 43

REGIONAL SNAPSHOT EUROPE | Page 54

REGIONAL SNAPSHOT ASIA | Page 65

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GLOBAL REPORTJUNE 2017

The FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Rental Index recorded a net total USD return of 0.93% in June. The best performing listed real estate market was the United States, which recorded a total USD return of 2.41%. Japan recorded the lowest total USD return for June of -4.08%.

We recently visited London where we toured some prime retail and office locations and discussed the state of the property market with management teams, property brokers and analysts. Our trip coincided with the opening salvos of the Brexit negotiations where Theresa May, after betting on a snap election and losing her majority in the House of Commons, is now in a materially weaker position. Rather than fall on her own sword she has enlisted the support of a small Northern Irish party to form a minority parliament. Despite all of this, during our visit we found London to be buzzing and the streets packed with locals and tourists alike, making the most of the short British summer. Management teams were unanimous in their belief that London is an iconic city and a magnet for people that would be incredibly difficult to replicate anywhere else in Europe over the short to medium term.

Although office fundamentals have softened in the UK due to the political uncertainty surrounding Brexit and oncoming supply, Asian demand has continued to prop up asset prices, especially in the top end of the market. Recent transactions lead us to believe that the primary motivation for many of these purchases is to move money offshore rather than a desire or need to earn a fair yield on acquisitions.

After London we travelled to New York where we attended REITWeek 2017. The conference featured over 130 individual company presentations and afforded us the opportunity to hold face-to-face meetings with a significant number of REIT decision makers, which we find an invaluable tool in our investment process. The major themes discussed at the conference were the divergence between public and private valuations in the retail sector and the strong tailwinds driving data center and industrial performance.

Retail management teams fully acknowledged the difficult retail environment today and the change in spending habits of consumers towards more experiential and entertainment type shopping activities. Many believe that the sell-off has gone too far, fuelled in part by the negative media rhetoric regarding bricks and mortar retail. The REIT conference participants agreed that investment in stores and customer service needs to be a key focus area to ensure customers are given the best possible retail experience. Capital expenditure requirements are likely to increase going forward as landlords modernise their centers and focus on adding more experiential attractions to increase footfall. Most retailers have embraced the omni-channel strategy which involves selling goods both online and in physical stores. This has been cited as a way to drive traffic to centers as retailers make use of the buy online and collect in-store model. Whilst there will certainly be further disruption in the ever evolving retail space there should be a clear differentiation in performance between high and low quality assets over time.

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In contrast the industrial sector has benefited from e-commerce tailwinds which have created significant demand for warehousing space that is located close to consumers as well as having sufficient labour and appropriate planning permissions in place. Data centers have shared similar success due to the exponential increase in data consumption driven by the uptake of smart devices which have more advanced capabilities and computing power, necessitating greater data storage and connectivity.

Amazon announced its proposed takeover of Whole Foods Market, a chain of organic grocers, for $13.7 billion in cash. Whole Foods operates more than 460 physical stores, situated in prime retail locations in the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom. The merger represents a significant move for Amazon into the physical retail space and affords the tech behemoth the opportunity to participate in the estimated $750 billion grocery market. The relative high cost of last mile delivery, which is the transport of goods from a transportation hub to the home, continues to be a key economic challenge for e-commerce players where the speed of delivery and proximity of well-located pick-up locations is a key differentiator. Whilst it is still unclear as to what Amazon’s intentions are, we will be watching these developments with keen interest. Continuing on the merger and acquisition front, Digital Realty Trust has proposed a merger with its major competitor, Du Pont Fabros Technology, for a deal worth $7.6 billion, valuing Du Pont’s shares at a 15% premium on the day the offer was made. If approved by shareholders, the merger will create the largest wholesale data-center REIT in the U.S. and allow Digital Realty to meet the growing demand for larger cloud and cloud-like customers, as well as enhance its ability to service top U.S. metro areas.

Medium term earnings growth prospects for global real estate stocks remain relatively robust, predominantly due to the lag effect of long term leases and solid current fundamentals. Listed real estate currently trades at an estimated forward FAD (Funds Available for Distribution) yield of 4.84%. Considering current global real estate market fundamentals, current pricing appears about fairly valued on a long term risk-adjusted basis.

Jonathan KinnearInvestment Analyst

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GLOBAL LISTED PROPERTY REVIEW

Region JUNE 2017 (Return %) USD

JUNE 2017(Return %) Rand

YTD(Return %) USD

YTD(Return %) Rand

Global Investors Index (NTR)

0.93% 0.18% 3.28% -1.80%

North America 2.41% 1.67% 1.81% -3.20%

Europe -0.57% -1.31% 13.68% 8.09%

Asia ex Australia -2.67% -3.39% 4.54% -0.60%

Australia -2.06% -2.78% -2.29% -7.09%

SA Listed Property Index

1.04% 0.29% 7.57% 2.29%

COUNTRY MARKET CAPITALISATION USD

MILLION

10 YEAR GOVT BOND YIELD

ROLLED YIELD LOCAL CURRENCY

DEBT % LOCAL CURRENCY

Combined Upweighted Global Investors Universe*

996 559 1.83% 3.85% 32.18%

Total North America 665 421 2.30% 3.83% 31.71%

US 641 482 2.32% 3.77% 31.32%

Canada 23 939 1.76% 4.92% 39.24%

Total Europe 187 494 0.67% 3.77% 34.85%

United Kingdom 54 097 1.26% 3.56% 28.43%

Continental Europe 133 396 0.39% 3.87% 37.87%

Total Asia 143 644 1.26% 4.01% 31.13%

Australia 63 714 2.69% 4.92% 31.21%

Japan 15 905 0.09% 3.02% 35.31%

Hong Kong 44 069 1.42% 3.90% 15.27%

Singapore 18 779 2.09% 5.81% 35.00%

New Zealand 1 177 3.04% 5.33% 31.92%

South Africa 45 825 8.78% 6.93% 34.90%

* Universe companies included are only those companies that form part of the Catalyst core universe.

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NORTH AMERICACOMPANY BLOOMBERG

TICKERCOUNTRY MARKET CAP.

USD MILLIONCLOSE LOCAL

CURRENCY CLEAN

PRICE LOCAL CURRENCY

ROLLED YIELD LOCAL

CURRENCY

DEBT % LOCAL

CURRENCYTotal North America 665 421 3.83% 31.71%Total US 641 482 3.77% 31.32%Simon Property Group, Inc SPG US 50 502 161.76 160.92 4.19% 29.24%

Public Storage PSA US 36 252 208.53 208.14 3.68% 14.07%

American Tower C AMT US 56 237 132.32 132.14 1.83% 44.25%

Invitation Homes INVH US 6 713 21.63 21.63 1.37% 43.64%

American Homes 4 Rent AMH US 5 843 22.57 22.57 0.89% 34.66%

Equity Residential EQR US 24 170 65.83 65.74 3.38% 26.67%

Welltower Reit HCN US 27 408 74.85 74.32 4.66% 34.67%

General Growth Properties Inc GGP US 20 794 23.56 23.39 4.20% 39.07%

Avalonbay Communities AVB US 26 478 192.17 192.07 2.89% 23.13%

Ventas VTR US 24 657 69.48 69.19 4.39% 39.31%

Prologis PLD US 31 053 58.64 58.55 2.94% 31.98%

Boston Properties BXP US 18 928 123.02 122.97 2.30% 28.80%

Vornado Realty Trust VNO US 17 779 93.90 93.38 3.03% 35.75%

Hcp Inc HCP US 14 976 31.96 31.58 5.64% 38.16%

Essex Property Trust ESS US 16 877 257.27 257.16 2.61% 28.20%

Host Hotels & Resorts HST US 13 515 18.27 18.26 4.70% 30.89%

Macerich Co MAC US 8 232 58.06 57.57 4.80% 37.64%

Sl Green Realty SLG US 10 926 105.80 105.76 2.75% 41.39%

Kimco Realty KIM US 7 811 18.35 16.20 6.39% 42.40%

Digital Realty Trust DLR US 18 331 112.95 112.76 3.19% 39.60%

Federal Rlty Inv Tr Sbi FRT US 9 130 126.39 126.25 3.05% 26.11%

Extra Space Storage Inc Com EXR US 9 825 78.00 77.86 3.94% 32.36%

Udr Inc UDR US 10 420 38.97 38.65 3.12% 28.79%

Brixmor Property Group BRX US 5 451 17.88 17.88 5.60% 47.75%

Camden Property Trust CPT US 7 494 85.51 85.46 3.57% 23.50%

Alexandria Real Estate Eqty ARE US 10 972 120.47 120.42 2.75% 32.65%

Kilroy Realty Corporation KRC US 7 386 75.15 75.13 2.15% 23.69%

Regency Centers Corp. REG US 10 664 62.64 62.39 3.35% 26.95%

Developers Diversified Rlty DDR US 3 329 9.07 9.03 8.08% 54.97%

Liberty Property Trust LPT US 5 993 40.71 40.69 4.29% 33.83%

Sun Communities SUI US 6 867 87.69 87.66 3.01% 40.00%

Equity Lifestyle Properties Inc ELS US 7 498 86.34 86.31 2.08% 28.69%

Taubman Centers TCO US 3 614 59.55 59.42 4.15% 37.33%

Cubesmart CUBE US 4 331 24.04 24.03 4.13% 26.61%

American Campus Cmntys ACC US 6 342 47.30 47.04 3.71% 28.63%

Highwoods Properties HIW US 5 173 50.71 50.47 3.66% 32.04%

Lasalle Hotel Properties LHO US 3 374 29.80 29.78 6.31% 35.11%

Mid-America Apartment Comm MAA US 11 969 105.38 105.38 3.23% 28.26%

Tanger Factory Outlet Centers SKT US 2 506 25.98 25.68 4.97% 34.44%

Dct Industrial Trust DCT US 4 915 53.44 53.42 2.11% 29.40%

Diamondrock Hospitality DRH US 2 193 10.95 10.94 4.57% 34.78%

Duke Realty Corp DRE US 9 939 27.95 27.95 2.67% 23.56%

Cousins Properties CUZ US 3 682 8.79 8.79 3.04% 28.31%

Acadia Realty Trust AKR US 2 356 27.80 27.79 4.06% 28.76%

Corporate Office Properties Trust OFC US 3 483 35.03 35.01 3.23% 38.19%

Urban Edge Properties UE US 2 552 23.73 23.69 3.57% 31.88%

Empire State Realty Trust Inc ESRT US 3 281 20.77 20.75 2.03% 16.79%

Dupont Fabros Technology Inc DFT US 5 605 61.16 61.14 3.20% 32.34%

Eastgroup Properties Sbi EGP US 2 841 83.80 83.66 2.94% 33.15%

Retail Opp Invts ROIC US 2 106 19.19 19.16 3.89% 36.05%

Education Rlty Tr Inc EDR US 2 836 38.75 38.52 4.10% 23.57%

National Retail Properties NNN US 5 831 39.10 39.10 4.62% 24.48%

Realty Income O US 15 067 55.18 55.18 4.42% 27.53%

Coresite Realty COR US 4 974 103.53 103.50 2.71% 23.02%

Total Canada 23 939 4.92% 39.24%Riocan Real Estate Investment Trust Units REI-U CN CA 6 044 24.07 24.05 5.91% 41.00%

H&R Reit HR-U CN CA 4 904 22.02 21.95 6.28% 45.00%

First Capital Realty Inc FCR CN CA 3 721 19.76 19.75 4.65% 45.00%

Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust Units

REF-U CN CA 2 592 45.87 45.84 3.96% 38.00%

Boardwalk Real Estate Investment Trust Units

BEI-U CN CA 1 854 47.55 47.51 4.41% 44.00%

Allied Properties Reit AP-U CN CA 2 542 38.92 38.90 3.91% 38.53%

Chartwell Retirement Residences CSH-U CN CA 2 281 15.49 15.48 3.65% 42.00%

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EUROPECOMPANY BLOOMBERG

TICKERCOUNTRY MARKET CAP.

USD MILLIONCLOSE LOCAL

CURRENCY CLEAN

PRICE LOCAL CURRENCY

ROLLED YIELD LOCAL

CURRENCY

DEBT % LOCAL CURRENCY

Total Europe 187 494 3.77% 34.85%

Total United Kingdom 54 097 3.56% 28.43%

Land Securities LAND LN GB 10 433 10.13 10.12 3.77% 22.00%

British Land Company Plc BLND LN GB 8 122 6.06 6.05 4.83% 29.90%

Hammerson HMSO LN GB 5 936 5.75 5.67 4.21% 39.00%

Intu Properties Plc INTU LN GB 4 749 2.69 2.66 5.26% 45.40%

Derwent London DLN LN GB 3 853 26.54 26.45 2.37% 17.70%

Capital & Counties CAPC LN GB 3 235 2.93 2.92 0.51% 18.75%

Segro Plc SGRO LN GB 6 362 4.89 4.54 3.64% 33.00%

Great Portland Estates GPOR LN GB 2 541 5.97 5.96 1.96% 18.30%

Capital & Regional CAL LN GB 519 0.56 0.56 6.11% 44.63%

Shaftesbury SHB LN GB 3 534 9.73 9.72 1.59% 26.10%

Unite Group UTG LN GB 2 035 6.49 6.45 3.12% 34.00%

Big Yellow Group BYG LN GB 1 629 7.92 7.91 3.54% 25.91%

Safestore SAFE LN GB 1 149 4.21 4.18 3.00% 35.11%

Total Continental Europe 133 396 3.87% 37.87%

Unibail - Rodamco Sa UL NA France 25 154 220.65 217.86 4.87% 33.00%

Vonovia VNA GY Germany 18 926 34.77 34.62 3.50% 47.34%

Klepierre LI FP France 12 889 35.89 35.51 5.34% 36.80%

Deutsche Wohnen DWNI GY Germany 13 571 33.49 33.45 1.72% 32.36%

Gecina GFC FP France 9 955 137.35 135.73 3.52% 32.00%

Leg Immobilien LEG GY France 5 943 82.31 81.95 3.67% 43.74%

Psp Swiss Property PSPN SW Switzerland 4 290 89.60 88.81 3.71% 31.90%

New Europe Prop NEP SJ Romania 4 227 165.46 163.89 3.85% 34.20%

Hufvudstaden HUFVA SS Sweden 3 570 139.70 138.77 2.42% 15.00%

Castellum CAST SS Sweden 4 008 123.70 122.29 4.09% 49.12%

Deutsche Euroshop DEQ GY Germany 2 303 34.51 34.49 4.13% 34.20%

Sirius SRE LN Germany 574 57.25 55.83 4.75% 45.00%

Irish Residential Properties Reit IRES ID Ireland 648 1.36 1.34 3.95% 32.00%

Interxion Holdings INXN Netherlands 3 251 45.78 45.78 0.00% 17.40%

Ado Properties ADJ GY Netherlands 1 866 37.04 36.98 1.09% 36.03%

Citycon Oyj CTY1S FH Finland 2 337 2.30 2.29 5.74% 46.60%

Fabege FABG SS Sweden 3 178 162.00 160.94 2.81% 43.76%

Mercialys (Reit) MERY FP France 1 802 17.13 16.95 6.27% 38.00%

Eurocommercial Properties ECMPA NA Netherlands 1 954 34.99 33.60 6.21% 41.00%

Buwog BWO AV Austria 3 235 25.16 24.61 3.26% 39.00%

Rockcastl ROC SJ Poland 2 580 35.68 35.28 4.12% 45.70%

Beni Stabili BNS IM Italy 1 639 0.63 0.63 4.05% 43.50%

Alstria Office Ag AOX GY Germany 2 074 11.84 11.76 4.25% 40.90%

Sponda SDA1V FH Finland 1 968 5.07 5.05 4.06% 48.30%

Vastned Retail VASTN NA Netherlands 797 36.66 36.25 5.46% 41.80%

Nieuwe Steen Investments NSI NA Netherlands 656 31.64 31.58 4.02% 44.09%

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ASIACOMPANY BLOOMBERG

TICKERCOUNTRY MARKET CAP.

USD MILLIONCLOSE LOCAL

CURRENCY CLEAN

PRICE LOCAL CURRENCY

ROLLED YIELD LOCAL

CURRENCY

DEBT % LOCAL CURRENCY

Total Asia 143 644 4.01% 31.13%

Total Australia 63 714 4.92% 31.21%

Scentre Group SCG AU AU 16 375 4.00 3.91 5.59% 33.00%

Westfield Corp WFD AU AU 12 735 7.96 7.86 3.25% 39.00%

Vicinity Centres VCX AU AU 7 838 2.57 2.57 6.45% 24.00%

Goodman Group GMG AU AU 10 771 7.83 7.83 3.25% 31.28%

GPT Group GPT AU AU 6 587 4.76 4.75 4.97% 26.28%

Dexus Property Group DXS AU AU 7 342 9.39 9.38 4.90% 27.00%

Investa Office Fund IOF AU AU 2 066 4.38 4.37 4.62% 26.50%

Total Japan 15 905 3.02% 35.31%

Nippon Building Fund Inc 8951 JP JP 7 199 573 000 572 769 2.87% 35.63%

Japan Real Estate Investment 8952 JP JP 6 559 563 000 558 740 2.96% 32.46%

Kenedix Realty Investment Co 8972 JP JP 2 147 596 000 591 895 3.72% 43.50%

Total Hong Kong 44 069 3.90% 15.27%

Hong Kong Land Hld. HKL SP HK 17 528 7.45 7.40 2.49% 12.77%

Link Real Estate Investment

Trust

823 HK HK 16 781 59.20 59.12 3.87% 16.09%

Hysan Development Co. Ltd. 14 HK HK 4 988 37.25 36.80 3.75% 7.86%

Champion REIT 2778 HK HK 3 700 4.97 4.94 4.58% 20.81%

Sunlight Real Estate Invest 435 HK HK 1 072 5.11 5.03 4.63% 23.49%

Total Singapore 18 779 5.81% 35.00%

Capitamall Trust CT SP SG 5 062 1.97 1.94 5.78% 34.80%

Ascendas Real Estate

Investment Trust

AREIT SP SG 5 536 2.63 2.61 6.00% 38.42%

Capitacommercial Trust CCT SP SG 3 637 1.67 1.63 5.56% 30.23%

Mapletree Logistics Trust MLT SP SG 2 172 1.20 1.18 6.26% 36.71%

Fortune REIT 778 HK SG 2 372 9.72 9.53 5.21% 30.65%

Total New Zealand 1 177 5.33% 31.92%

Goodman Property Trust GMT NZ NZ 1 177 1.25 1.25 5.33% 31.92%

INFORMATION SOURCE AND METHODOLOGY

Data: Bloomberg unless stated otherwise

Calculations: Catalyst Fund Managers

Clean Price: Adjusts the closing price for distribution accrued since last distribution date

Rolled yield: Time weighted current 12 month historic distribution divided by the clean price.

Debt %: These are loan to value numbers.

Date: All data taken on 3 July 2017

Catalyst Fund Managers (Pty) Ltd4th Floor Protea Place, Protea Road,Claremont, 7708 Cape Town, South AfricaPO Box 44845, Claremont 7735 Cape Town, South Africa

Tel: +27 21 657 5500Fax: +27 21 683 7579

www.catalyst.co.za

An Authorised Financial Services Provider Catalyst Fund Managers (Pty) Ltd (FSP: 723)Catalyst Fund Managers SA (Pty) Ltd (FSP: 36009)Catalyst Fund Managers Global (FSP: 45418)

The information contained in this document is confidential, privileged and only for the information of the intended recipient and may not be used, published or redistributed without the prior written consent of Catalyst Fund Managers. The opinions expressed are in good faith and while every care has been taken in preparing this document, Catalyst Fund Managers makes no representations and gives no warranties of whatever nature in respect of this document, including but not limited to the accuracy or completeness of any information, facts and/or opinions contained therein. Catalyst, its subsidiaries, the directors, employees and agents cannot be held liable for the use of and reliance of the opinions, estimates, forecasts and findings in this document.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, prices of investments and the income from them may fall as well as rise. Investments in equities are subject to market risk and, potentially, to exchange rate risk.This document is for information only and does not constitute advice or solicitation for funds.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION