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© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
AUTOMOTIVE
Global Production Forecast Outlook:Global Auto Sales Growth to Slow in 2018, Yet Remain at Record Levels
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SALES OF THE PRODUCTION
Seven-year forecast offers comprehensive future vehicle
flows
SOURCING
Each vehicle registered is sourced from his production
plant.
SALES POTENTIAL
Seven-year independent analysis of light-vehicle demand and segment
growth integrates current information with 10 years of
historical data.
The Sales-to-Production Methodology
PRODUCTION
Seven-year forecast offers comprehensive future vehicle
cycle plans, projected volumes and plant capacity utilization data for OEMs and suppliers
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The global auto industry looks set for a robust performance in 2018
74.3
95.1
103.5
110.5
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
2010 2015 2020 2025
Millions
CAGR +3.6%
CAGR +1.9%
SHORT-TERMNavigating the
geopolitical risks
MID-TERMGrowth Stagnation
LONG-TERMNew mobilties
RECOVERYChinese growth and Mature
markets recovery
Today
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42.6
50.9 51.1
51.7
24.2
42.2
50.0
57.3
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2015 2020 2025
Millions
The global auto industry looks set for a robust performance in 2018
SHORT-TERMNavigating the
geopolitical risks
MID-TERMGrowth Stagnation
LONG-TERMNew mobilties
RECOVERYChinese growth and Mature
markets recovery
Today
Emerging
Mature
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But challenges remain in 2018, navigating the geopolitical risks that have intensified in the last months
CanadaTurkey and others
EU28
United StatesJapan
South Korea
Mexico
+2.0%
+1.5%
+1.0%
-0.4%
+8.6%
+12.3%
+12.3%
2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018
Greater China Europe NAFTA Japan/Korea Indian Subcontinent Mercosul Greater Russia
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A zoom in the European industry, by destination sales markets
Europe sales to production walk, 2017 and 2018In Thousand of vehicle unit
+2.0%
+1.6%
2016 2017 2018
CAGR 2018-2025 +0.5% via export
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But challenges remain in 2018, navigating the geopolitical risks that have intensified in the last months
CanadaTurkey and others
EU28
United StatesJapan
South Korea
Mexico
+2.0%
+1.5%
+1.0%
-0.4%
+8.6%
+12.3%
+12.3%
2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018
Greater China Europe NAFTA Japan/Korea Indian Subcontinent Mercosul Greater Russia
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Europe
Greater China
Greater Russia
Indian
Subcontinent
Japan/Korea
Mercosul
NAFTA
Other
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Volkswagen
Renault-Nissan-
MitsubishiToyota
Hyundai
General Motors
Ford
Honda
FCA
PSA
Suzuki
Daimler
BMW
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Challenges remain in 2018
Absolute and relative 2017-2018 growth, by region and OEM In Thousand of vehicle unit
Average = 2.0%
2017-2018 Volume gain
2017-2
018
Gro
wth
Average per OEM = +124 ThousandAverage per Region = +267 Thousand
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Europe
Greater China
Greater Russia
Indian
Subcontinent
Japan/Korea
Mercosul
NAFTA
Other
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%
-1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
Volkswagen
Renault-Nissan-
Mitsubishi
Toyota
Hyundai
General MotorsFord
HondaFCA
PSA
Suzuki
DaimlerBMW
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
That shape the overcoming 2017-2025 performances
Absolute and relative 2017-2025 growth, by region and OEM In Thousand of vehicle unit
Average = 1.9%
Average per Region = +1,900 Thousand Average per OEM = 880 Thousand
2017-2025 Volume gain
2017-2
025
Gro
wth
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RECOVERING MARKETS(MERCOSUR, GREATER RUSSIA)
2.4+M
Stronger recovery phase forWestern mature markets andMexico -- but offset byJapanese industry.
MATURE MARKETS(EU, JAPAN/KOREA, NAFTA)
0.8+M
CHINA
6.1+M
Next decade will bring verydifferent challenges in China ashigh double-digit sales growthis expected to be replaced by acomplex combination of lowsingle single-digit growth,intense competition, extrememarket fragmentation, morecity restrictions, regulatorypressure on air pollution.
INDIA
4.0+M
Used to be weaker thananticipated, but strongfundamentals for the long-term
Almost all key emerging marketeconomies had decelerated, ofwhich South American (mainlyArgentina & Brazil) and Russianmarkets did enter recession.Medium term trend growth willbe due to pent-up demand.Concerns are still focus oninadequate evidence onprogress of structural reforms
A four-speed automotive industry (2017-2025 absolute growth)
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European Union, Battery electric vehicles outlook
EU28 production, by Propulsion System DesignIn Million Vehicle unit
0.0 0.5
1.2
2.8
3.9
4.9
6.4
7.4
8.0
0.50.6 0.7
1.1 1.31.5
1.71.9
2.1
0.3 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.9 2.3
7
11
15
19
23
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Electric
Hybrid-Full
Hybrid-Mild
ICE: Stop/Start
CAGR 2017-2025 -1.9%
CAGR 2017-2025 -0.7%
CAGR 2017-2025 +0.5%
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vehicle produced in European Union will be Battery Electric by 2025
/
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Types of battery electric vehicles
The program consists in fitting batteries into an existing program on a
conventional ICE platform
Example: VW e-Golf
Standalone program, either based on a bespoke
platform, or on the redesign of an ICE platform.
Example: Audi e-tron
The platform is designed to cater to both BEV and ICE
applications.
Example: Volvo CMA
The platform is designed from scratch and only for
pure BEV applications.
Example: VW MEB
DEDICATED PLATFORMSPILOT PROGRAMSCONVERSION PROGRAMS MULTI-ENERGY PLATFORMS
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European Union, Battery electric vehicles outlook
0.04 0.06 0.07 0.06 0.11 0.14 0.17 0.21 0.240.08
0.130.22 0.28
0.29 0.24 0.18 0.11 0.09
0.12
0.24 0.33 0.390.52
0.80
0.01
0.02
0.13
0.29
0.46
0.65
0.84
0.98
0.6%1.0%
1.6%
2.9%
4.4%
5.5%
6.5%
7.9%
9.8%
-1.0%
1.0%
3.0%
5.0%
7.0%
9.0%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Dedicated platforms
Multi-energy platforms
Pilot programs
Conversion programs
BEV share
EU28 BEV production, by typologyIn Million Vehicle unit
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BEV strategies, Volkswagen Mainstream
VW-Seat-Skoda brands BEV production in EU28In vehicule unit
1%
3%
8%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
2017 2020 2025
Dedicated platforms
Multi-energy platforms
Pilot programs
Conversion programs
BEV Share
The MEB platform will be VW’s foundation to make BEVsbecome a new hallmark of the group and ensure fleetcompliancy in key markets such as Europe and China. MEBis a matrix of common parts, offering RWD and AWDoptions, wheels on the corners, and batteries installed inchocolate bar pattern.
MEB program are de facto standalone models. As a firststep, 8 models in the compact segment are expected inEurope off the MEB31 variant: 2 models for each brand (VW,Audi, Skoda, and Seat), plus one bigger model on theMEB41 variant, the ID Buzz. The Mosel plant will beconverted from 2019 to make exclusively MEB models witha capacity 400k units/year, following an investment of 1billion euros.
It is assumed that the multi-energy option will beeventually picked for the electrification of subcompactsegments.
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BEV strategies, Audi-Porsche
Audi and Porsche brands BEV production in EU28In vehicule unit
0%
3%
10%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
2017 2020 2025
Dedicated platforms
Multi-energy platforms
Pilot programs
Conversion programs
BEV Share
Audi and Porsche have no presence on the market. Audipilot programs will start in 2018 with e-tron and e-tronSportback in Brussels, while Porsche pilot programs areexpected by 2020 with Taycan and Taycan Cross Turismo inZuffenhausen.
Starting from 2021, their second-generation BEVs will bebased on a joint-platform called PPE. PPE will be the BEVvariant of PPF (premium platform of the future).
Although they will go for a multi-energy platform strategy,Audi and Porsche will launch a range of bespoke models.PPE models will include Audi E5, E7, E8/Aicon, eQ5, eQ6,eQ7, eQ8, eQ9, Porsche Macan (reportedly 100% BEV),Cayenne, Panamera, and the second generation Taycan.Audi will also leverage the MEB platform for two standalonemodels in the compact segment.
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BEV strategies, Daimler
Daimler BEV production in EU28In vehicule unit
1%
6%
13%
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
2017 2020 2025
Dedicated platforms
Multi-energy platforms
Pilot programs
Conversion programs
BEV Share
Daimler has been an early entrant with misc conversionprograms including the Smart ED and the B-Class electric.They launched the second generation Smart ED based onthe Edison multi-energy platform in 2017. BEV conversionsof new Vito and Sprinter LCVs are planned for 2018.
Different technical solutions will co-exist, but all will bemarketed under the « EQ » umbrella. The pilot program forMercedes passenger cars is the EQC crossover, with aproduction launch in 2019 in Bremen. From 2020 on, atleast two MFA-2 models are expected to be full-electric,with European production taking place in Rastatt andHambach.
Finally, from 2021, Mercedes EQ models will be based onEVA-2, a dedicated scalable architecture for BEVs. Europeanproduction will include two standalone sedans, to be builtin Sindelfingen. EVA-2 will also spawn two large SUVssourced in the US. EVA-2 will also be localized in China.
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BEV strategies, PSA
PSA BEV production in EU28In vehicule unit
0%
1%
6%
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
2017 2020 2025
Dedicated platforms
Multi-energy platforms
Pilot programs
Conversion programs
BEV Share
PSA has a marginal presence in BEV via conversions of CDVsand partnerships with Mitsubishi (iOn/C-Zero) and Bolloré(E-Mehari). Initial push will be on segment B via the e-CMPplatform starting from 2019. e-CMP allows for optimumbattery installation in the conventional CMP platform, withunaltered interior space.
Although most volumes will be with ICE applications, CMPcan be classified as a multi-energy platform. At least 6 top-hats are planned on the four brands of the group in Europeby 2022, all of them to be marketed as electric variants ofcore models.
This strategy allows for high flexibility in manufacturingdepending on the demand for electric vehicles, andmitigates the risk compared to a bespoke platform. AllEuropean B-segment plants of the group are expected tobuild an e-CMP models. PSA will also expand conversionprograms in LCV segments.
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BEV strategies, Renault-Nissan
Renault-Nissan Alliance BEV production in EU28 In vehicule unit
2%
3%
7%
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
2017 2020 2025
Dedicated platforms
Multi-energy platforms
Pilot programs
Conversion programs
BEV Share
Nissan and Renault have been at the forefront of BEVs withthe Leaf and Zoé pilot programs. The Alliance is theEuropean BEV leader and like VW, they have enoughvolume scale to commit a bespoke platform on themainstream market.
For the second generation of BEVs in 2022, the Alliance willadopt a joint scalable platform with a flat floor layout thatwill free up interior space and allow for innovative vehicledesign. Douai will be the CMF-EV production hub forRenault in Europe. Nissan program allocations is yet to bedefined.
On top of Leaf and Zoé, a second pillar model will be addedfor the Renault and Nissan brands with the CMF-EVarchitecture. In addition, Renault will include conversionprograms for LCVs.
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BEV strategies, Summary
Porsche Taycanand Taycan Turismo
In Zuffenhausen
Audi e-tronand e-tron Sportback
In Brussels
Mercedes EQCIn Bremen
Smart EdisonFortwo and Forfour
In Hambach and Novo Mesto
PSA e-CMP208, 2008, Corsa, Mokka, C4, DS3 Crossback
In multiple plants
BMW Gen 4 electric drivetrainMini, i4, X3
Multiple plants (X3 in US)
LCVs
VW MEBIn EU, 2 compact models for each brand + ID-Buzz
Mainly in Mosel
Renault-Nissan CMF-EV2 pillar models for Renault and Nissan
In Douai for Renault, TBD for Nissan
Daimler EVA-22 sedans + possibly a showcase flagship
In Sindelfingen (SUVs outside EU)
Audi-Porsche PPEE5, E7, E8 , eQ5, eQ6, eQ7, eQ8, eQ9
Panamera, Macan, CayenneIn Ingolstadt and Leipzig
BMW Gen 5 electric drivetrainStarting with iNext and up to 12 models globally
Multiple plants
Daimler MFA-22 compact models
In Rastatt and Hambach
LCVs
BMW i3
Renault Zoé
Nissan Leaf
VW e-Golf /e-up
Smart ED
Mercedes B-Class ED
LCVs
Before 2017 Transition period From 2020 on
Versati
le
B
esp
oke
Programs Platforms