Global Population

PLANET EARTH

OCEAN, SEA

Usable Fresh Water

Dessert

Not Arable Lands … 5 too ‘s, urban areas and preserves

Arable Land …Must support all of human life

ECUMENE

http://www.worldometers.info/population/

http://www.breathingearth.net/

Ninth

Eighth

Seventh

Sixth

Fifth

Fourth

Third

Second

First Billion

Number of years to add each billion (year)

All of Human History (1800)

130 (1930)

30 (1960)

15 (1975)

12 (1987)

12 (1999)

14 (2013)

14 (2027)

21 (2048)

Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

World Population Growth, in Billions

A.D.2000

A.D.1000

A.D.1

1000B.C.

2000B.C.

3000B.C.

4000B.C.

5000B.C.

6000B.C.

7000B.C.

1+ million years

8

7

6

5

2

1

4

3

OldStoneAge New Stone Age

BronzeAge

IronAge

MiddleAges

ModernAge

Black Death — The Plague

9

10

11

12

A.D.3000

A.D.4000

A.D.5000

18001900

1950

1975

2000

2100

Future

Billions

Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).

World Population Growth Through History

World Population Density

** Exception to sparsely populated regions occurs in South America!!

World Population Distribution and Density

• East Asia- 1/5 of world population here- China

• South Asia - bound by the Himalayas and a desert in Pakistan- another 1/5 of the worlds population

• Europe- population is concentrated in cities - 1/9th world population

• Southeast Asia - 4th most populated region in the world

– ½ billion people– Indonesia most populated country in the region

** 2/3rd of world’s population is clustered into these 4 regions!

• North America- megalopolis AKA metropolitan area

Climate Zones (simplified)

Ecumene, 5000 B.C. The ecumene, or the portion of the earth with permanent human settlement, has expanded to cover most of the world’s land area.

Ecumene, A.D. 1

Ecumene, A.D.1500

Ecumene, A.D.1900

Many Ways of Measuring Population:

Population Density – measure of total population divided by the total land size (AKA. arithmetic population density).

The highest arithmetic densities are found in parts of Asia and Europe.

Physiological DensityPhysiological density is the number of people per arable land area. This is a good measure of the relationship between population and agricultural resources in a society.

Physiological Density

WHICH IS LOW PHYSIOLOGICAL DENSITY; MIDDLE, & HIGH?

AGRICULTURAL DENSITY

- Ratio of the # of farmers to the amount of arable land

Billions

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Less Developed Regions

More Developed Regions

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

Growth in More, Less Developed Countries

Crude Birth Rate (CBR)Crude Death Rate (CDR)

• Crude Birth Rate (CBR) is the total number of live births in a year for every 1,000 people alive in the society

• Crude Death Rate (CDR) is the total number of deaths in a year for every 1,000 people

** Crude focuses on society as a whole rather than a refined look at particular individual and groups

Crude Birth Rates

Fig. 2-8:

The lowest rates are in Europe, and the highest rates are in Africa and several Asian countries. Why?

Crude Death Rates

Fig. 2-12

Because wealthy countries are in a late stage of the Demographic Transition, they often have a higher CDR than poorer countries.

• Natural Increase Rate (NIR) is the percentage by which a population grows/declines in a year

• NIR = CBR – CDR• Represents country’s growth rate excluding

migration• NIR is lower today (1.2) than in the past

– Peak in 1963 of 2.2

Natural Increase Rates

Doubling Time

• The number of years needed to double a population assuming a constant rate.

NIR today (1.2) = a doubling time of 54 years

1963 NIR was 2.2 = a doubling time of 35 years

Natural Increase Rates

• Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the average number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years– Roughly 15-49– Used to measure number of births in a society

• TFR varies between MDCs and LDCs

Total Fertility Rate

Average number of children per woman

4.9

6.8

5.7 5.6

2.42.7

5

2.5 2.6

1.6

World Africa Asia Latin Americaand the

Caribbean

More DevelopedCountries

1965-1970 2000-2005

Trends in Childbearing, by Region

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

Number of Women 15 to 49Billions

0.62

0.86

1.32

1.76

1.982.06

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

Women of Childbearing Age

Modern Contraceptive Use, Developing Countries

Married Women 15 to 49 Using Modern Methods, Late 1990s, Early 2000sPercent

4

8

20

32

33

43

47

49

57

57

59

64

70

Congo, Dem. Republic of

Nigeria

Pakistan

Kenya

Philippines

India*

Bangladesh

Russia*

Egypt

Indonesia*

Mexico*

Vietnam

Brazil*

* Data prior to 1999.Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.

• Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) is the annual number of deaths of infants under 1 year of age, compared with total live births– Number of deaths per 1,000 births– Highest rates in poorer countries of sub-Saharan

Africa– Lowest Rates in Western Europe

• IMR reflects country’s health-care system– Lower IMRs in countries with well-trained doctors

and nurses, modern hospitals, and supplies of medicine

Infant Mortality rate

Donor Support for Contraceptives and Estimated CostsMillions of US$

Contraceptive Costs, Developing Countries

13211268

12161164

11141064

1014966

920875830

807791773754

919904888873857841

824

203209

176218

1330

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: UNFPA, Donor Support for Contraceptives and Condoms for STI/HIV Prevention 2004.

Total Estimated Contraceptive Costs(including condoms)

Total Estimated Contraceptive Costs

Actual Donor Support

Infant Mortality Rates

Infant Mortality Rate and Total Fertility Rate

6

27

51

88 Africa

Asia

LAC*

MDR** 1.6

2.6

2.5

5.1

Annual deaths to infants under age 1 per 1,000 live births

Average number of children per woman

Infant Mortality and Childbearing, by Region

* LAC=Latin America and the Caribbean; ** MDR=More Developed Regions. Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.

People are living longer than ever before in the U.S., but gaps in life expectancy between blacks

and whites persist.

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

1970

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

White female

Black female

White male

Black male

Years

• Life Expectancy at birth measures the average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels– More favorable in wealthier countries

• 70’s in Western Europe• 40’s in sub-Saharan Africa

Life Expectancy

Life Expectancy at birth

© 2005 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU

Infant mortality for blacks has remained twice as high as infant mortality for whites

since the early 1980s.

0

5

10

15

20

25

1983

1984

1985

1990

1991

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

Infant deaths per 1,000 births

• Black, non-Hispanic

• Hispanic• White, non-Hispanic

• Asian

Source: National Center for Health Statistics.

Why does Population matter?

For so Many reasons Here is one you may not have

considered

© 2005 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU

Six of the top 15 energy users are low-income countries.

Total energy use, in millions of metric tons of oil equivalent, 2002

Source: World Bank, 2005 World Development Indicators: table 3.7.

1,228

617

538

516

346

265

250

226

203

190

172

157

156

133

2,290United States

China

Russian Federation

I ndia

J apan

Germany

France

Canada

United Kingdom

Korea, Rep.

Brazil

I taly

Mexico

I ndonesia

I ran, I slamic Rep.