GLOBAL OUTLOOK 2014€¦ · financing. Prior to the crisis, financial institutions became highly...
Transcript of GLOBAL OUTLOOK 2014€¦ · financing. Prior to the crisis, financial institutions became highly...
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ALTINTEL TERMINAL (ARKEM GROUP) - ISTANBUL
GLOBAL OUTLOOK
2014 E M R E A Y H A N
D I R E C T O R
F I N A N C E A N D A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
1 5 M A Y 2 0 1 4
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HEADLINES
• ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: IS CRISIS OVER?
• CURRENT TRENDS ON CHEMICAL INDUSTRY AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE OF CHEMICALS
• STRATEGIES & TOOLS FOR PRODUCERS AND DISTRIBUTORS TO COPE WITH THE NEW ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
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2008
An era of bank failures, a credit
crunch, private defaults and massive
layoffs
The worst the world has seen since the Great
Depression of the 1930s
The regulatory framework did not
keep pace with financial innovation,
such as the increasing importance of
the shadow banking system,
derivatives and off-balance sheet
financing.
Prior to the crisis, financial
institutions became highly
leveraged, increasing their appetite
for risky investments and reducing
their resilience in case of losses.
IMF estimated that large U.S. and
European banks lost more than
$1 trillion on toxic assets and from
bad loans from January 2007 to
September 2009.
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Three stages of the crisis
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- GDP
- Budget deficits and public debts vs. GDPs
- Current account imbalances
- Inflation
- Consumer confidence
- Commodities and international trade
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Main Indicators
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GDP Growth
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Budget deficits seem to be on the path to remedy...
Source: The Telegraph
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But, burden on the shoulders of taxpayers to grow
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Risk of Deflation
Source: www.economistsview.com
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Customer confidence Q2-2012 Q2-2013
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Current account balances continue to trend down
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Commodities
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Energy
Metals
Food
Agri
Source: Thompson Reuters DataStream & HSBC
Index, 1990s average = 100
IMF All commodity price index; Real base = June 2012, deflated by US CPI
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2014 seems like...
- Global recovery will be
supported mostly by advanced
economies
- Consumer confidence returning
to pre-financial crisis levels, at
its highest since the first quarter
of 2007(Nielsen)
- Emerging market economies are
now much larger and more
integrated into global trade and
financial markets
- Still fragile climate due to still
high indebtedness and low
inflation
- The exposure of advanced
economies to emerging market
economies has increased;
therefore policymakers of
advance economies should
closely monitor growth in
emerging markets and be
prepared to mitigate any adverse
movement
GLOBALLY
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2014 seems like...
The euro area has finally emerged from
recession and Advanced European
economies are expected to resume
growth in 2014.
However, Deflation, high unemployment
(Over 23 million EU workers have
become unemployed), weak private and
public balance sheets, contracting credit,
and a large debt burden are still on the
agenda of the decision makers.
New austerity principles relying not on
tax base but also financial stimulus: New
opportunuties for business and an
improving economy in the Eurozone
Fiscal rules that treated mostly symptoms
(budget deficits) not causes (a deficient
structure and crippled banks). This has
led many to call for additional regulation
of the banking sector across not only
Europe, but the entire world.
Stringer measures in the banking system Eligibility criteria for the banks and their
clientele will become much higher:
Harder to finance
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2014 seems like...
Improving economic indicators including
the strengthening of the U.S.' property
market Quantitative Easing ?
A reduction in the U.S.-China current
account balance
Latin American economies are expected
to experience a modest growth, motivated
by the recovery in the advanced
economies but hindered by fiscal and
financial bottlenecks and impact of lower
commodity prices.
U.S. consumer sentiment indicates
optimism about the economic outlook
TTIP : Transatlantic Trade and
Investment Partnership between USA and
EU
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- CIS Economies are vulnerable due to the political tension between Russia and
Ukraine. Growth is expected at a slower pace due to the low commodity prices and
anticipated sanctions against Russia, which could be partly offset by still strong
domestic demands of these economies.
- MENA: A stronger recovery in advanced economies could keep oil and gas prices
high, benefiting both the oil and gas exporters, however continued political
transitions and conflict, weak confidence, high unemployment, low competitiveness,
and large public deficits will continue to pull the pace of growth back. For the oil-
importing MENA countries, recovery seems to be even less visible.
- Asia: Steady Recovery thanks to the solid domestic demand and growth in exports to
US and Euro-area.
- The wave of reforms in China
- Downgrade of growth rates in some of the large emerging market economies (Brazil,
Russia, Turkey, S. Africa) due to domestic policy weaknesses, tighter domestic and
external financial conditions.
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2014 seems like...
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Yuan’s influence grows in international trade
JPY (1.94%)
EUR (7.87%)
CNY (1.89%)
USD (84.96%)
Other (3.34%)
JPY (1.36%)
EUR (6.64%)
CNY (8.66%)
USD (81.08%)
Other (2.26%)
Source: SWIFT Watch & HSBC
Jan 2012 Oct 2013
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- Capacity rationalizations and industry consolidations/spinoffs have significantly
changed market dynamics. (e.g. CPC, Dow, BP, Ineos, BASF)
- The outlooks for olefins and aromatics show that regional concerns will shape
petrochemical markets in 2014.
- Due to competitive advantages from shale gas, a stronger growth is expected in North
America, together with the newly established investments in chemicals production
amounting up to nearly USD 100 bn. Total shipments are expected to exceed $1
trillion in 2018, up from $789 billion in 2013, (ACC )
- The increased competition from Asia as well as the low-cost production environment
in the United States will continue to impact the growth prospects for many European
chemical companies.
- Asia will continue to be the driver for demand growth. China’s growth is expected on
a slower pace, but it will still play a considerable role in the capitalization of new
product lines, technologies.
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Chemicals outlook
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Asia is driving the growth in the global chemical
output
Source: ACC
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Asia-Pacific
Western Europe
North America
Latin America
C&E Europe
Africa and ME
Total
Global trade
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Europe is still the largest chemicals trade
partner for the rest of the world
Source: WTO
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2012 2000 2012 2000 2012 2000 2012 2000 2012 2000 2012 2000 2012
EU Extra EU USA China Switzerland Japan Korea
Imports
Exports
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- EU is the largest importer and exporter of chemicals. However, the EU chemicals industry
has been under pressure since the start of the financial crisis in 2008, and then in European
sovereign debt crisis in 2012. Now it is less competitive overall compared to 2003 because
of the hits from both demand and supply sides.
- Excess capacity emerges as a problem as other countries/regions such as CIS, West Africa,
Middle East concentrate their efforts to build up their own chemicals industry, with the help
of their own crude/natural gas supplies.
- Europe is squeezed between feedstock-advantaged regions, including the Middle East and,
now, the U.S.
- Europe-based players also face substantial cost challenges that are not feedstock related.
- Energy costs
- Maintenance
- Logistics / International transport
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But...
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Chemical distribution vs. consumption
Source: BCG
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IMPACT OF GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS
Source: BCG
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Returns on capital
Source: BCG
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- More emphasis on reach to feedstocks / coping with resource contraints / efficient
use of resources
- Emerging markets and the agrochemical and fertilizer subsector (along with other
food-production-related subsectors) will likely remain key growth drivers, given
macroeconomic trends and customer-industry dynamics.
- The sources of demand will shift even further, with nearly 50 percent of worldwide
demand coming from asia by 2020.
- Favorable credit and financing, but stricter regulations for lending
- Private equity firms are able to submit big bids for promising assets
- A positive sentiment for chemicals M&A activities
- But also spinoffs due to efficiency, competency and cost concerns
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Trends that will shape the market
Source: BCG
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Factors effecting decisions of producers
Cost reduction Complexity Competition Market volatility
Decision to
outsource the
distribution
Decision to limit the number of distributors
Global partnerships with selected third party distributors
Value-added services
Expertise
Specialization
Access to emerging markets
Cri
teri
a
Strong local+global
capabilities
Financial capability to
invest in market
development, technical
expertise and IT
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Factors effecting decisions of customers
Cost reduction Market volatility Scale Access to suppliers
Outsourcing the procurement process to third party distributors
Partnerships with international or mid-size regional distributors
Wider product portfolios
Price
Flexibility (log./fin.)
Technical support Cri
teri
a
Inventory outsourcing
Global network for sourcing
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- Scale
- Local / global networks
- Preferred partnerships
- Regulations such as REACH
- Increasingly challenging conditions for small distributors, more favorable for mid-
size regionals and large international players.
- M&A: Some larger companies have used mergers and acquisitions to develop
capabilities needed to meet producers’ and customers’ needs. Also small-to-mid-size
enterprises have formed networks such as Omni Chem Alliance and Chemical
Distribution Network.
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Key drivers of optimization and consolidation in
distribution market
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Building successful distribution models
International
Increase coverage and expertise in key sectors
Preferred partnerships
M&A activities
Value added services
Regional
Ensure financial stability
Increase specific expertise
Establish and expand local networks
Preferred partnerships
Small
Grow into a regional one
Comply with local regulations
Ensure financial stability
Specialize in a niche
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• Established in 1992
• Global sales: USD 370mn
• Strong global presence
• Integrated distribution group with cutting-edge terminal and logistics
infrastructure
• Ranks 38th in the ‘ICIS TOP 100 Chemical Distributors List’
• Exclusive and regular supply arrangements with prominent producers
solvents aromatics
solvents, aromatics,
monomers, acetates,
acrylates, glycols,
alcohols, surfactants,
amines, titanium dioxide,
ketones, acids, blends,
plastics
monomers
acrylates
glycols
alcohols
surfactants
acids
blends plastics
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© Copyright Arkem Chemicals Europe B.V. 2014.
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No part of this document may be reproduced, stored, distributed or transmitted in any form without the prior written permission of
Arkem Chemicals Europe B.V.
This document is issued by Arkem Chemicals Europe B.V. and is intended for reference and illustrative purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer or a commitment by Arkem Chemicals Europe B.V. or any of its group companies to enter into a transaction. This
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assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions, forecasts or estimates. All opinions expressed in this
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The information contained in this document may include information from third parties who Arkem Chemicals Europe B.V. believes to
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