Global Nuclear Expansion
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Transcript of Global Nuclear Expansion
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Global Nuclear Expansion
Kenneth R. BalkeyVice President, ASME Nuclear Codes and Standards
Consulting Engineer, Westinghouse Electric Company
Workshop on the Global Relevance of the
ASME Boiler & Pressure Vessel CodeSheraton Atlanta Hotel
January 28, 2007
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Global Energy Situation and Need For New Reactors
The author acknowledges with appreciation the contributions to this portion of the presentation by Mr. John Goossen, Director, Science & Technology Department, Westinghouse Electric Company
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Electricity Lights the World
World Electricity Demand Growth (bkWh)
16,00018,875
21,40023,677
26,018
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Source: EIA International Energy Outlook - Updated 07/05
63% Increase Needed in Next 20 Years
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Forecast Electricity Demand by RegionSource: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2004Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2004
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
1990 1995 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025
(Billion KWh)
Asia
Europe
U.S
Rest of World
An extensive expansion of installed generating capacity will be required.
5,648
3,900
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2005 2030
Growth in Electricity Demand
Bil
lio
n k
Wh
U.S. Needs 45 Percent More Electricity by 2030
Source: Energy Information Administration
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Energy Source
% of U.S. Electricity
Supply
% of U.S. Energy Supply
% Imported
Oil 3 39 51Natural Gas 15 23 16Coal 51 22 0Nuclear 20 8 0Hydroelectric 8 4 0Biomass 1 3 0Other Renewables 1 1 0
Nuclear Power Provides an Option for Energy Independence
Source: Energy Information Administration
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Nuclear Power Plays A Major role in Global Electricity Generation
7877
58
53
4644
42393939
3635343131
29
23232020
1513
1187
444431
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Lithuan
ia
France
Belgiu
m
Slova
k RP
Ukrai
ne
Swed
en
Bulgar
ia
Korea
RP
Hungar
y
Slove
nia
Switz
erla
nd
Armen
ia
Japan
Finla
nd
Ger
man
y
Spain
United
Kingdom
Taiw
an
United
State
s
Czech
RP
Russia
Canad
a
Romani
a
Argen
tina
South A
frica
Brazi
l
Nether
lands
India
Mex
io
Pakis
tan
China
Source: International Atomic Energy Agency & World Nuclear Association Database
Percentage
New Construction in Progress
441 Operating Commercial Nuclear Power Plants Worldwide
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What is Driving A Nuclear Renaissance?• Continuing excellent performance
of existing reactors
• Need for base load electricity capacity
• Nuclear’s contribution to clean air recognized and credited
• Importance of energy security and/or diversity included in capacity planning
• Competitive economics of new nuclear plants compared to alternatives
• Government support and/or incentives for initial projects
• Strong tie between nuclear and hydrogen economy
Natural Gas Price
11Source: “ www.nuclear.gov” generation IV initiative
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Global Developments and ASME Board on Nuclear Codes &
Standards (BNCS) Efforts
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Canada 2
USA 32
Mexico 2
Argentina 1
Brazil 1
Japan 12
North Korea 1
South Korea 7
China 63
India 23
Vietnam 2
Indonesia 1
Egypt 1
South Africa 25
Israel 1
Iran 5
Pakistan 4
France 2
Lithuania 1
Czech Rep. 2
Slovakia 2
Slovenia 1
Romania 3
Bulgaria 1
Turkey 2
Armenia 1
Russia 42
Ukraine 2
Kazakhstan 1
Nations Turning to Nuclear Energy
Nations have planned or proposed building more than 220 power reactors
Source: World Nuclear Association (as of Dec. 8, 2006) in Nuclear Energy Insight, January 2007
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New Reactor Technology
BNCS Task Group on New Reactors Mission: Ensure, on a worldwide basis, that ASME
Nuclear Codes and Standards protect public health and safety and meet the needs of users. These Codes and Standards are developed with an approved consensus process.
Goal: To determine need and provide ASME Nuclear Codes and Standards for the benefit of users.
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Globalization
BNCS Task Group on Globalization Mission: To ensure that ASME nuclear codes and
standards are useful to stakeholders world-wide. Goals:
To solicit feedback from stakeholders in Asia, Europe, Africa and the Americas regarding the user friendliness of the ASME code documents.
To encourage more world-wide stakeholders to participate in the ASME codes and standards development technical consensus process.
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Key Developments New Reactor Workshops and Visits
U.S., South Africa, Canada, Europe, China, South Korea JSME / ASME Workshop planned April 2007 in Nagoya, JAPAN
following ICONE-15 1st overseas ASME BNCS Meeting and Workshop held in
Prague, Czech Republic in June 2006 Hosted by Czech Nuclear Research Institute in Rez, CR Industry, regulatory, standards development organization
representatives from 18 countries participated including Western / Eastern Europe, Russia, South Africa, Japan, Canada, U.S.
Several new international representatives and delegates have become members and actively engaged in ASME Nuclear Codes & Standards, including nuclear accreditation
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Some Current Initiatives in ASMENuclear Codes and Standards – New Reactors
General DOE Gen IV New Reactor Materials Program NRC proposal for new 10 CFR Part 53 for licensing new reactors Participate in Multi-national Design Evaluation Program (MDEP)
Section III Obtaining NRC endorsement of piping seismic design rules Reaching consensus on treatment of environmental fatigue Develop probabilistic design requirements for new high temperature gas-
cooled reactors (HTGRs), particularly for use of graphite for reactor internals Section XI
Develop risk-informed ISI requirements for HTGRs Committee on Nuclear Risk Management
Development of Level 1, 2 and 3 PRA Standard for new reactors Nuclear Quality Assurance / Qualification of Mechanical Equipment
Obtain NRC endorsement of latest editions of NQA-1 and QME standards for use in combined construction and operating license (COL) applications
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Globalization -A Personal Perspective
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Globalization –A Personal Perspective
Global RecognitionAnd Presence
Global Collaboration
FullGlobal
Integration
Examples• International Conference on Nuclear Engineering
• ASME SC III SG on Graphite for Core Components
• Gen IV New Reactor Project
• ASME Codes & Standards / ASME as a whole
Source: Adapted from Keynote Presentation by Daniel Burrows, a renowned futurist, at the Carnegie Science Center Awards, Pittsburgh, PA, May 3, 2006
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Summary Growing global energy needs are resulting in many nations
looking to significantly expand the use of nuclear power
ASME Board on Nuclear Codes & Standards and its committees have several key initiatives underway to begin to address the changing global nuclear industry
The world is changing at an ever increasing rate that requires everyone to understand these developments and to act in an appropriate manner for ASME Codes & Standards to achieve its vision and mission –
“To be the world leader in mechanical and multidisciplinary engineering codes, standards, and conformity assessment programs…for the benefit of humanity, and involve the best and brightest people from around the world…”
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Questions