Global mobile operator forecast 2Q 2014 presentation, 2003-2017

1

4Q 2013 Global Mobile Operator

Forecast: Trends and Analysis

October 2014

IE Market Research Corporation

Global Mobile Operator Forecast and Ranking 2Q.2014, 2003-2017

IEMR’s Methodology & Definitions

Global Mobile Operator Overview

Global Mobile Operator Rankings

Disclosures, Disclaimers & License Agreement

Table of Contents

How IEMR Collects its Data

IEMR publishes the world’s largest database on mobile operator metrics and forecasts. Our Global Mobile Operator Forecast (GMOF)

provides operational and financial metrics for wireless markets across the world covering 800+ mobile operators in 200+ countries and

territories. The GMOF is the most extensive company-specific and country-specific forecast of its kind in the world with 1.9 million data

points.

We populate historical data in our GMOF database using proximity-based web capture technology and tracking of over 100,000 websites

including operator investor relations websites, regulatory websites, and news websites that provide information on mobile market trends at

the operator level. We complement this data with on-line executive interviews of over 3,510 executives at Communications Service

Providers (CSPs), globally, and who comprise part of IEMR’s Global Enterprise Telecommunications Panel. All historical data is vetted by

IEMR staff to ensure accuracy and consistency.

For historical data, we undertake a thorough panel-regression modeling exercise to estimate any missing data. Each historical predicted

estimate in our dataset is based on a "best fit" panel regression model that provides an estimate of that variable for a specific operator.

Unlike other Analyst firms, we do not undertake Top-down estimates based on analyst assumptions, and so the data collection exercise is

far superior to the typical analyst reports that are based mostly on analyst’s estimates, and not real data or any rigorous modeling exercise.

How IEMR Produces its Forecasts

IEMR’s forecasts are based on a combination of time-series and structural forecasting models, which are updated on a quarterly basis.

The model is a “bottom up” model that forecasts metrics at the operator-level to create country trends. For shorter term forecasts (eight

quarters), we use time-series models to forecast operator-specific metrics. Our longer-term forecasts are based on a structural-time series

panel regression model that provides a comprehensive longer term picture of operator developments at the country level. These country

level forecasts are then aggregated up to form regional and global metrics.


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How IEMR Creates its Global Mobile Operator Rankings

In producing IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Rankings, we define mobile CSPs according to the number of subscribers on their network

(“Tiers”) as follows:

Tier 0: More than 30 million subscriber connections as of June 2014

Tier 1: 10 million - 30 million subscriber connections as of June 2014

Tier 2: 5 million - 10 million subscriber connections as of June 2014

Tier 3: 2.5 million - 5 million subscriber connections as of June 2014

Tier 4: Less than 2.5 million subscriber connections as of June 2014

Based on these Tiers, we compare a CSP to its peer group in the same Tier. Currently, our databases have the following breakdown of the

number of mobile CSPs in each Tier:

Tier 0: 47

Tier 1: 81

Tier 2: 77

Tier 3: 110

Tier 4: 534

For IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Rankings, we calculate averages over the previous four quarters for 10 fundamental metrics that we

have found to be relevant for predicting operator developments. These are:

Subscriber Growth

Net Subscriber Additions Growth

Monthly Churn

Voice ARPU Growth

Data ARPU Growth

Voice Revenue per Minute Growth

Minutes of Use per Subscriber Growth

Service Revenue Growth

EBITDA Growth

Free Cash Flow (FCF)

(defined as EBITDA – CAPEX / Service Revenue)


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For each of the above metrics, we calculate the median level / growth rate over the last four quarters for each Tier. We choose the median

level / growth rate as our main comparator metric because it has many advantages over simple or weighted averages for this type of

ranking. Primarily it allows us to preserve a relative ranking of operators without being influenced too much by outliers.

Please note that we force “Maximum” and “Minimum” criteria on all indicators. If, for a given operator, a metric is greater than 100% of the

Tier median, we assign a “Maximum” score of 200 for that metric to that operator. If, on the other hand, a metric is less than 100% of the Tier

median, we assign a “Minimum” score of 0 for that metric to that operator.

We weigh each of the 10 metrics differently according to their predictive power in forecasting the future overall ranking of an operator. For

2Q 2014, the weighting used for the overall score was: Subscriber Growth (11.65%), Net Subscriber Adds (0.35%), Monthly Churn

(26.88%), Data ARPU Growth (2.59%), Voice ARPU Growth (1.55%), Voice Revenue Per Minute Growth (0.01%), MOU per Subscriber

Growth (8.29%), Service Revenue Growth (17.71%), EBITDA Growth (5.31%), Free Cash Flow (25.65%).

The example below shows our methodology as it applies to Djezzy GSM, a mobile operator in Algeria.

Djezzy GSM had a subscriber base of 17.587 million in June 2014. It is, therefore, a Tier 1 operator by our definition and it makes

sense to compare it with other global Tier 1 operators (as opposed to, say, Tier 4 operators, either in Algeria or Africa).

The average service revenue growth rate for Djezzy GSM between 3Q 2013 to 2Q 2014 (last four quarters) was -0.7% according to

our 2Q 2014 Global Mobile Operator Forecast. For the 81 Tier 1 operators in our GMOF database, the median service revenue

growth rate for the last four quarters was -1%. Djezzy GSM was, therefore, a GROWTH PLAYER compared to its Tier 1 peers on

this metric. Given that Djezzy’s service revenue growth was 30% greater than its peer-group median, Djezzy’s Service Revenue

Growth Score was 130 (= (1+0.3) x 100).

We weigh service revenue growth with a weighting of 17.71%. For Djezzy GSM’s overall score, the service revenue growth

component is 23.0 (= 17.71% x 130).

We use the same methodology described above for each of the 10 metrics we track for our Global Mobile Operator Ranking. We then add

up the contributions of each score to provide an overall score for Djezzy GSM compared to its Tier 1 peer group.


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Based on the above methodology, we classify operators as “GROWTH PLAYERS”, “TIER PERFORMERS”, or “UNDERPERFORMERS”

using the following criteria:

Operator Overall Score > 110 – We classify the operator as “GROWTH PLAYER”

90 ≤ Operator Overall Score ≤ 110 – We classify the operator as “SECTOR PERFORMER”

Operator Overall Score < 90 – We classify the operator as “UNDERPERFORMER”

How to interpret IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Rankings

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Rankings provide a transparent, objective and comprehensive global ranking of operator performance.

Analysts and strategy planners at investment banks, consulting firms, hedge funds, operators, and telecom vendors and service providers

can use these rankings to benchmark operator performance based on a wide range of metrics and compare them to their peers globally.

In terms of the predictive power of our model, we ran an ex-ante analysis of operator scores for the period 4Q 2012 – 3Q 2013 and

compared it to the 3Q 2013 – 2Q 2014 period. As shown in the chart below, with an adjusted R-Squared of 0.6146, IEMR’s overall historical

ranking accounted for approximately 61% of the variation of the latest 4-quarter period. This makes our Global Mobile Operator Ranking

methodology a highly predictive ranking of future operator performance. The adjusted R-Squared is higher for Tier 0, 1, 2, and 3 operators.

y = 0.7052x + 15.995R² = 0.6146

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200


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7

Global Mobile Operator Overview (June 2014)

Average EBITDA/Service Revenue

Growth

Operator FCF %

(EBITDA-CAPEX/Service Revenue)

9.0%

58.2%

Voice Revenue per

Minute Growth

Data ARPU Growth

Average Voice ARPU

Growth

Net Subscribers Adds

Growth

Monthly Churn

Service Revenue

Growth

0.1%

$11.82-2.2%

2.3%

134.9 million

3.3%

-3.3%

0.21%MOU per Subscriber Growth

Subscriber Connections

Growth (YoY) 6.5%7.129 billion

22.38%

43% $ 254.6 billion

6,649 6,693

6,816

6,973

7,114 7,1307,198

7,328

7,457

7,736

8.9%

7.1%

5.4%

6.3%

7.0%6.5%

5.6%5.1%

4.8%

7.3%

6,000

6,200

6,400

6,600

6,800

7,000

7,200

7,400

7,600

7,800

8,000

1Q.2013 2Q.2013 3Q.2013 4Q.2013 1Q.2014 2Q.2014 3Q.2014 F 4Q.2014 F 1Q.2015 F 2Q.2015 F

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

Figure 1: Industry-wide Subscribers (in Millions) and YoY Growth Rates, 2Q.2013 – 2Q.2015F

Source: IE Market Research Corporation


As of 2Q 2014, the Global mobile subscriber connection base was 7.130 billion-- a YoY increase of +6.5%. We expect this slowing trend to continue over the next two quarters due to a general slowdown in emerging market countries, particularly India.

Nevertheless, we expect a bounce-back in subscriber growth starting in 2Q.2015F. Our longer-term forecast shows that subscriber growth in emerging markets will come back to trend starting in the second half of 2015.

8

9 9

$14.57

$14.42

$14.52

$14.14

$14.31

$14.63

$14.58 $14.56

$14.58

-4.2%

-5.0% -4.6%-4.3%

-1.7%

1.5% 0.5%

2.9%

1.8%

13.9

14.0

14.1

14.2

14.3

14.4

14.5

14.6

14.7

-6.0%

-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%



2Q13 1Q15F4Q14F3Q14F2Q141Q144Q13 2Q15F3Q13

Figure 2: Industry-wide ARPU (in US$) and YoY Growth Rates, 2Q.2013 – 2Q.2015F

Average ARPU across all operators covered was $14.31 in 2Q.2014 with a negative growth rate of -1.7% YoY.

Overall, we think that ARPU growth rates will show a cumulative recovery into 3Q.2014 of approximately 1.5%. The Growth Rate will reach its maximum in 1Q.2015 and won’t be negative again over the next four quarters as operators continue to see the fruits of network transformation projects result in increased use of data services by consumers globally.

Average Revenue per User is $38.40 in Northern America, $25.96 in Western Europe, $15.08 in Latin America, $ 12.15 in Asia Pacific, $11.41 in Eastern Europe, and $8.57 in Africa as of June 2014.

10 10

246.5247.4

251.5

255.6254.5

253.4

255.2

256.8

260.4

1.9%

0.7% 0.7%

5.7%

3.2%

2.4%

1.4%

0.5%

2.3%

235

240

245

250

255

260

265

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%



2Q13 1Q15F4Q14F3Q14F2Q141Q144Q13 2Q15F3Q13

Figure 3: Industry-wide Service Revenue (in US$ billions) and YoY Growth Trend, 2Q.2013 – 2Q.2015

Global Service Revenue in 2Q 2014 was $254.5 billion, a growth rate of 3.2% YoY. As subscriber growth continues to fall in the

next two quarters, we are forecasting a declining growth trend in service revenue over the next three quarters, with a bounce-back

in service revenue in 2Q.2015.

11 11

39.2% 39.8% 40.0% 41.4% 42.8% 41.8% 42.8% 44.0%45.…

4.0%

-1.1%

1.4%

9.2% 9.0%

5.1%

6.9% 6.5%6.7%

0

0

0

1

1

1

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%



2Q13 1Q15F4Q14F3Q14F2Q141Q144Q13 2Q15F3Q13

Figure 4: Industry-wide EBITDA Margins and YoY Growth Rate, 2Q.2013 - 2Q.2015

The average industry-wide EBITDA margin (EBITDA / Service Revenue) was 42.8% in 2Q.2014. We forecast constantly increasing EBITDA Margins over the next four quarters reaching up to 45.7% in 2Q.2015.

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#1Global Mobile Operator Rankings: Tier 0

30 million+ subscribers

Subscriber Connections Growth


Data ARPU Growth

Voice ARPU Growth

Net Subscribers Additions Growth

Monthly Churn

Operator Service Revenue Growth

EBITDA GrowthOperator FCF %


MTN Nigeria Communications Limited

Overall Score 177/200

8.6%

Not available

-4.9%

2.8%

-2.3%

-78.5%

4.5%

Not available

-1.9%

51.5%

MOU per Subscriber Growth

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#2Subscriber Connections Growth


Data ARPU Growth

Voice ARPU Growth


Monthly Churn




Bharti Airtel Limited


7.6%

-9.8%

4.2%

27.7%

-60.4%

-0.7% -6.6%

31.3%

MOU per Subscriber Growth 1.1%

-10.7%

Global Mobile Operator Rankings: Tier 030 million+ subscribers

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30 million+ subscribers



Data ARPU Growth

Voice ARPU Growth


Monthly Churn




Mobile TeleSystems OJSC (MTS)


6.8%

-6.5%

3.2%

2.1%

174.3%

2.2% 13.0%

25.6%

MOU per Subscriber Growth -8.1%

1.8%

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Tier 0 Telecom Carriers: Growth Players

Operator ScoreRanking

1 MTN Nigeria Communications Limited 1772 Bharti Airtel Limited 1573 Mobile TeleSystems OJSC (MTS) 1564 Grameenphone Limited 1525 Globe Telecom, Inc. 1506 Verizon Wireless 1487 Idea Cellular Limited 1478 AT&T Mobility LLC 1449 PT Telekomunikasi Selular (Telkomsel) 138

10 Viettel Group 13411 Telekom Deutschland GmbH (T-Mobile) (Deutsche Telekom AG) 13212 T-Mobile USA, Inc. 12313 Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM) 12314 SOFTBANK MOBILE Corp. 12215 MegaFon OJSC (MegaFon) 11916 Mobinil (The Egyptian Company for Mobile Services) 11917 China Mobile Ltd. 11818 Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company (PLDT) (Smart Communications, Inc.) 11719 China Telecom Corporation Limited 11620 China Unicom Ltd. 11421 3 Indonesia (PT Hutchison CP Telecommunications) 11422 PT XL Axiata Tbk (PT Excelcomindo Pratama Tbk) 113

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Tier 0 Telecom Carriers: Sector Performers


23 MTN Irancell (MTN Group) 11024 AIS (Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited) 10925 Vodafone Egypt Telecommunications Company S.A.E. 10526 MobiFon (Vietnam Mobile Telecom Services) 10527 Claro S.A. (America Movil S.A.B. DE C.V.) 10428 KDDI Corporation (au) 10429 Vodacom Group (Pty) Ltd 10130 Telenor Pakistan (Telenor ASA) 10031 Reliance Communications Ltd. 9932 Aircel Limited 9633 Vodafone Italy (Vodafone Group Plc) 9534 TCI (Telecommunication Company of Iran) 93

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Tier 0 Telecom Carriers: Underperformers


35 Vimpel-Communications (VimpelCom) 8836 NTT DOCOMO, Inc. 8737 Vivo Participacoes SA 8538 Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. (Turkcell) 8539 Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited (BSNL) 8440 Tele Norte Leste Participacoes (Oi, Telemar) 8341 Sprint Nextel Corporation 7942 Vodafone Essar Limited (Hutchison) 7043 Mobilink (Pakistan Mobile Communications Limited) 5944 Telcel (Radiomovil Dipsa S.A. de C.V.) 5045 Tata Teleservices Limited (TTSL) 4746 TIM Participacoes SA 4647 PT Indosat Tbk (PT Satelit Palapa Indonesia (Satelindo)) 40

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10 million – 30 million subscribers



Data ARPU Growth

Voice ARPU Growth


Monthly Churn




Orange Mali


17.1%

10.4%

1.8%

34.5%

-27.5%

11.5% 131.0%

37.4%


8.4%

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Data ARPU Growth

Voice ARPU Growth


Monthly Churn




Unitel Uzbekistan (Beeline)


1.8%

12.5%

5.6%

3.8%

Not available

-825%

7.2%

-6.1%

5.9%

Not available


Global Mobile Operator Rankings: Tier 110 million – 30 million subscribers

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Data ARPU Growth

Voice ARPU Growth


Monthly Churn




Spice Nepal Private Ltd. (Ncell)


13.6%

0%

2.3%

23.8%

-55.8%

10.7% 0%

134.1%

MOU per Subscriber Growth -5.4%

5.9%


21



Data ARPU Growth

Voice ARPU Growth


Monthly Churn




Movistar Venezuela


0%

9.3%

2.38%

7.4%

-3221%

-4.2% 10.0%

38.9%


7.5%


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1 Orange Mali SA 1842 Unitel Uzbekistan (Beeline) 1723 Spice Nepal Private Ltd. (Ncell) 1674 Movistar Venezuela (Telefonica S.A.) 1675 DiGi Telecommunications Sdn. Bhd. 1576 Mobilis (Algérie Télécom) 1527 Safaricom Limited 1478 Play (Novator) 1479 Movistar Perú (Telefonica, S.A.) 144

10 Claro S.A. (America Movil S.A.B. DE C.V.) 14411 Viettel (Cambodia) Pte. Ltd. (Metfone) 14312 Zain Iraq (Zain Group) 14113 Meditel (Medi Telecom) 13914 E-Plus Mobilfunk GmbH & Co. KG 13815 MTS-Ukraine (UMC) 13716 Movistar Colombia (Telefonica S.A.) 13617 Etisalat Nigeria (Emerging Markets Telecommunication Services (EMTS)) 13418 True Move (True Corporation Public Company Limited) 13219 Ethio Telecom (Ethiopian Telecommunications Corporation) 13020 Mobily (Etihad Etisalat Company) 12921 Chunghwa Telecom Co., Ltd. 128

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22 KT Corp. (Korea Telecom Freetel) 12723 Vodacom Tanzania Limited 12624 LG Uplus Corp. (LG Telecom) 12525 SK Telecom Co., Ltd. 12226 Telstra Corporation Limited 12227 Saudi Telecom Company (STC) 12028 3 Italy (Hutchison Telecommunications International Limited) 11729 Vodafone D2 GmbH 11630 Tele2 11531 Wind Telecomunicazioni SpA 11532 Telecom Argentina S.A. 11533 Kcell (GSM Kazakhstan OJSC Kazakhtelecom LLP) 11534 Kyivstar GSM 11435 Rogers Wireless Inc. 11436 Telefónica O2 Germany GmbH & Co OHG 11337 MTN Ghana (MTN Group) 112

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38 China Mobile Ltd. (Paktel) 11039 Djezzy GSM (Orascom Télécoms Algérie) 11040 Robi Axiata Limited (Telekom Malaysia) 10941 SFR (Vodafone Group Plc) 10942 Vodafone Limited 10843 Telefónica O2 UK Limited 10744 Orange España (France Telecom España S.A.) 10745 Cell C (Pty) Ltd 10746 Celcom (Malaysia) Berhad 10747 Movistar (Telefónica Móviles España, S.A.U.) 10548 Movilnet (CA Nacional Telefonos de Venezuela (CANTV)) 10549 Orange (France Télécom S.A.) (Everything Everywhere Ltd.) 10350 Maroc Telecom SA (Itissalatt Al Maghreb) 10351 PTC (T-Mobile International AG) (Era) 10252 Banglalink/Sheba (Orascom Telecom Holding S.A.E) 10153 Airtel Nigeria (Bharti Airtel Limited) 10154 DTAC (Total Access Communication Public Company Limited) 10055 Orange (France Telecom S.A.) 10056 Zain Sudan (Zain Group) 10057 Ufone GSM 9758 Asiacell Telecommunication LLC 9659 Conecel S.A. (Porta) 9560 Smart Telecom Indonesia 94

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61 VinaPhone (Vietnam Posts and Telecommunications Group) 8962 Orange Romania (France Télécom S.A.) 8963 Comcel (America Movil S.A.B de C.V.) 8764 MTN Group Limited 8765 Polkomtel S.A. (Plus) 8766 Entel Chile (Empresa Nacional de Telecomunicaciones SA) 8667 Movistar Argentina (Telefonica S.A.) 8568 Maxis Mobile Services Sdn. Bhd. 8469 Orange Polska (PTK Centertel) 8170 Avea (Turk Telekomunikasyon A.S. (Turk Telekom)) 8171 Movistar Chile (Telefonica S.A.) 8072 Vodafone España SAU 7073 Vodafone Turkey 6774 Digitel Mobile Philippines, Inc. (Sun Cellular) 6775 Globacom Limited 6576 Movistar Mexico (Telefonica S.A.) 6177 Bouygues Telecom 6078 Claro (America Movil S.A.B. DE C.V.) / CTI 5979 OJSC Rostelecom 5680 Etisalat Egypt (Emirates Telecommunications Corporation) 5381 Warid Telecom International 46

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Data ARPU Growth

Voice ARPU Growth


Monthly Churn




MTN Côte d'Ivoire


17.3%

-6.8%

2.8%

8.3%

34.4%

9.2% -6.8%

21.2%

MOU per Subscriber Growth 0%

-6.8%


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Data ARPU Growth

Voice ARPU Growth


Monthly Churn




MTN Cameroon


28.8%

1.5%

-12.7%

2.1%

8.5%

382.3%

12.2%

-14.0%

-12.5%

24.6%



28



Data ARPU Growth

Voice ARPU Growth


Monthly Churn




Nepal Telecom


17.5%

0.9%

2.7%

12.5%

-4.0%

15.2% 2.1%

39.5%

MOU per Subscriber Growth 0%

1.2%


29



1 MTN Côte d'Ivoire (MTN Group) 1692 MTN Cameroon (MTN Group) 1673 Nepal Telecom (Nepal Telecommunications Corporation) 1664 Du (Emirates Integrated Telecommunications Company PJSC) 1635 Tigo Colombia (Millicom International Cellular S.A.) 1536 MTN Uganda (MTN Group) 1487 Vodafone Ghana (Vodafone Group plc) 1488 Etisalat UAE (Emirates Telecommunications Corporation) 1479 Telvenco S.A. (Digitel) 143

10 Vodacom Congo (Vodacom Group (Pty) Ltd) 14011 Tigo (Comunicaciones Celulares, S.A.) 13812 Astelit LLC (life:)) 13513 T-Mobile Hungary (Magyar Telekom Nyrt.) 13514 MTN Group (Spacetel) 13415 Bell Mobility Inc. 13216 Syriatel Mobile Telecom S.A. 13217 Orange Côte d'Ivoire (France Télécom S.A.) 13118 Dialog Axiata PLC 12919 Taiwan Mobile Co., Ltd. 12820 SOTELMA 12521 Telus Mobility 124

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22 Orange Senegal (France Télécom S.A.) 12323 TeliaSonera AB 12324 Movistar (Telefónica Móviles Ecuador) (Otecel S.A.) 12325 Zain Tanzania (Bharti Airtel Limited) 12126 Hutchison 3G UK Limited 12127 MTS (Mobile TeleSystems OJSC) 12028 Tunisiana (Orascom Telecom Holding SAE) 11929 Iusacell (Grupo Iusacell SAB de CV) 11830 Cosmote Mobile Telecommunications S.A. 11831 Cosmote Romania (Cosmote Mobile Telecommunications S.A.) 11732 I.C.E. (Instituto Costarricense de Electricidad) 11533 Kar-Tel LLP (BeeLine) 11434 MPT (Myanmar Posts and Telecommunications) 11435 mobilkom austria (Telekom Austria Group) 11436 T-Mobile Czech Republic a.s. 11137 Telefónica O2 Czech Republic a.s. 111

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38 Far EasTone Telecommunications Co., Ltd. 11039 Mobitel Sri Lanka (Mobitel (Pvt.) Ltd.) 10940 Digicel Haiti (Digicel Group Limited) 10941 U Mobile Sdn Bhd 10942 KPN Mobile N.V. 10743 Econet Wireless (Private) Limited 10744 Nedjma (Wataniya Télécom Algérie) 10645 Swisscom AG 10546 Ucell (Coscom) 10347 Claro Dominican Republic (América Móvil, S.A.B. de C.V.) 10348 TMN -Telecomunicações Móveis Nacionais S.A. 10249 Telekom Srbija (MT:S) (Preduzeće za telekomunikacije Telekom Srbija a.d.) 10250 Bharti Airtel Limited (Zain Kenya) 10251 Unitel Angola (UNITEL SA) 10152 Korek Telecom Ltd. 9853 Proximus (Belgacom S.A.) 9854 MTS India (Sistema Shyam TeleServices Limited) 9755 Tigo Tanzania (Millicom International Cellular S.A.) 9656 MTS-Uzbekistan (Mobile TeleSystems OJSC) (Uzdunrobita) 9357 Zain Saudi Arabia (SMTC) 9158 Vodafone (Vodafone Hutchison Australia Pty Ltd) 90

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59 MTN Sudan (MTN Group) 8960 Claro (Sercom S.A.) 8961 MTN Afghanistan (MTN Group) 8662 Vodafone Netherlands (Vodafone Group Plc) 8663 Airtel (Warid Telecom) 8464 Vodafone Romania (Vodafone Group) 7765 Vodafone Portugal, Comunicações Pessoais, S.A. 7366 Orange Cameroon (France Télécom S.A.) 7267 SingTel Optus Pty Limited 6968 Zain Congo DRC (Bharti Airtel Limited) 6669 Nizhegorodskaya Cellular Communications 6470 Wana (ONA Group) 6371 PT Natrindo Telepon Seluler (Axis) 6272 MTN Syria (MTN Group) 5973 Free Mobile 5874 Roshan (Telecom Development Company Afghanistan Ltd.) 5275 PT. Bakrie Telecom Tbk 3976 Claro Chile S.A. 3377 Others 24

33



Data ARPU Growth

Voice ARPU Growth


Monthly Churn




Zain Malawi (Bharti Airtel Limited)


42.0%

51.9%

1.9%

11.1%

-31.4%

7.4% 52.3%

33.9%


50.0%

Global Mobile Operator Rankings: Tier 32.5 million – 5 million subscribers

34



Data ARPU Growth

Voice ARPU Growth


Monthly Churn




MTN Zambia


-3.1%

0%

16.6%

2.8%

48.4%

-348.8%

36.2%

16.4%

15.2%

21.1%



35



Data ARPU Growth

Voice ARPU Growth


Monthly Churn




MTN Group (Spacetel Benin) (Areeba)


18.3%

1.0%

1.1%

2.5%

6.4%

23.8%

7.1%

0.1%

-1.6%

23.0%



36



Data ARPU Growth

Voice ARPU Growth


Monthly Churn




TeleYemenOverall Score 171/200

9.0%

0%

2.2%

20.7%

0%

9.0% 0%

24.9%


-1.3%


37



1 Zain Malawi (Bharti Airtel Limited) 1872 MTN Zambia (MTN Group) 1823 MTN Group (Spacetel Benin) (Areeba) 1824 TeleYemen (Yemen International Telecommunications Co.) 1715 Tigo (Millicom International Cellular S.A.) 1696 Velcom (FE VELCOM) 1677 Vivacom (Bulgarian Telecommunications Company) 1668 Babilon Mobile (CJSC Babilon-Mobile) 1639 Zain Niger (Bharti Airtel Limited) 163

10 Orange Guinee (France Télécom S.A.) 16111 Hong Kong CSL Limited (CSL New World) 15912 Movil de Entel (Entel S.A.) 15813 Zain Kuwait (Zain Group) 15514 Zain Ghana (Bharti Airtel Limited) 14815 Tigo - Millicom International Cellular S.A. (Telecel Bolivia) 14616 Movicel (Angola Telecom) 14317 China Mobile Hong Kong Company Limited (CMHK) 14218 Etisalat Benin S.A. (Telecel Benin) (Moov) 14219 Tele2 AB 139

38



20 Tigo Paraguay (Millicom International Cellular S.A.) (Telecel) 13721 Drei (Hutchison 3G Austria GmbH) 13522 Singapore Telecommunications Ltd. (SingTel) 13423 Telenor Mobil AS 13424 TeliaSonera AB 13325 Nuevatel PCS De Bolivia SA 13026 CamGSM Co. Ltd. (Cellcard, MobiTel) 12827 Indigo-Somoncom (CSJC Indigo Tajikistan) 12728 Moov Côte d'Ivoire (Atlantique Telecom, Etisalat) 12629 GLOBUL (Cosmo Bulgaria Mobile EAD) 12430 Onatel SA 12431 Tigo Honduras (Millicom International Cellular S.A.) (Celtel) 12332 Vodafone Czech Republic a.s. 12133 Vodacom Mozambique (Vodacom Group (Pty) Ltd) 11934 Zain Jordan (Zain Group) 11935 Telenor Serbia (Telenor d.o.o.) 11836 Tigo El Salvador (Telemovil, El salvador S.A.) 11737 Teletalk Bangladesh Limited (BTTB) 11638 SmarTone-Vodafone (SmarTone Mobile Communications Limited) 116

39



39 Pelephone 11540 Telenor Hungary Ltd. (Pannon) 11441 ANCEL 11442 Sky Mobile LLC (BeeLine) (BITEL) 11443 Zain Uganda (Bharti Airtel Limited) 11344 Elisa Oyj 11345 Cellcom Israel Ltd. 11346 T-Mobile Netherlands (Ben) (T-Mobile International AG) 11247 Orange Slovensko (France Télécom S.A.) 11248 Digicel Papua New Guinea (Digicel Group Limited) 11149 Partner Communications Co. Ltd. (Orange) 111

40



50 Digicel Jamaica Ltd. (Mossel) 11051 Yoigo (Xfera Moviles S.A.) 11052 Orange Jordan (France Télécom S.A.) 11053 Tesco Mobile Ltd. 10854 TM Cell (Altyn Asyr MC) 10855 Movistar Panama (Telefonica Moviles Panama, S.A.) 10856 Virgin Mobile France 10857 Sabafon (Yemen Mobile Phone Company) 10758 Star Telecom Company Limited (STL) (LAT) 10759 Etisalat Afghanistan (Emirates Telecommunications Corporation) 10660 Vodafone-Panafon Hellenic Telecommunications Company S.A. 10661 Azerfon LLC (NAR Mobile) 10662 CTE Telecom Personal S.A. de C.V. (Claro) 10563 Enitel-Claro (Empresa Nicaraguense de Telecomunicaciones S.A.) 10464 Etisalat Sri Lanka (Emirates Telecommunication Corporation) (Celltel) 10365 Zain Zambia (Bharti Airtel Limited) 10366 Zain Burkina Faso (Bharti Airtel Limited) 10267 Mobistar N.V./S.A. 10268 Videocon Telecommunications Limited 9969 Uganda Telecom Ltd. 99

41



70 Bakcell Ltd. 9871 Vietnamobile (Hutchison Telecommunications International Limited) 9772 Optimus Telecomunicações, S.A. (Sonaecom) 9673 Azercell Telecom LLC 9574 U.S. Cellular (United States Cellular Corporation) 9475 TDC Mobile International A/S 9376 Palestinian Cellular Communications Company (Al-Jawwal) 9377 Ooredoo (Qatar Telecom (Qtel)) 9378 Vala (Post and Telecom of Kosovo) 90

42



79 Essar Telecom Kenya Limited (Yu) 8880 MTN Rwanda (MTN Group) 8781 Movistar (Telefónica S.A.) 8682 Virgin Mobile UK (Virgin Mobile Telecoms Ltd.) 8683 Afghan Wireless Communication Company (AWCC) 8584 Hutchison Hong Kong (Hutchison Telecommunications International Limited) 8485 Zain Madagascar (Bharti Airtel Limited) 8386 Areeba Guinea (MTN Group) (Investcom) 8287 Tele2 Kazakhstan (Mobile Telecom Service LLP) 8288 Omantel (Oman Telecommunications Company) 8189 Warid Telecom Uganda (Warid Telecom International Ltd.) 7990 EMOBILE Limited 7691 Umniah (Bahrain Telecommunications Company) 7392 Leap Wireless International, Inc. 7093 M-Tel (Mobiltel EAD) 6794 Telecel Zimbabwe (Pvt) Ltd 6795 Orange Dominicana S.A. 6696 Nextel (Comunicaciones Nextel de Mexico S.A. de C.V.) 6497 BASE (Royal KPN N.V.) 6498 Africell DRC 5899 Movitel Mozambique 58

100 Moçambique Celular, S.A.R.L. (mcel) 52

43



101 T-Mobile Austria (Deutsche Telekom AG) 50102 Sibirtelecom JSC 47103 Tuntel (Tunisie Télécom) 44104 Loop Mobile (BPL Cellular) 44105 S Tel Pvt. Ltd. 42106 Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited (MTNL) 40107 Uralsvyazinform JSC 39108 Wind Hellas Telecommunications S.A. 34109 Etisalat DB Telecom Pvt. Ltd 24110 New World PCS Limited (merged with CSL in 2006) 16

44



Data ARPU Growth

Voice ARPU Growth


Monthly Churn




Tigo Rwanda


29.1%

17.3%

2.2%

28.6%

829.4%

66.6% 22.0%

-8.0%


14.8%

Global Mobile Operator Rankings: Tier 4Less than 2.5 million subscribers

45



Data ARPU Growth

Voice ARPU Growth


Monthly Churn




Vodafone Qatar


20.4%

6.7%

2.3%

18.8%

-40.0%

29.4% 6.7%

-9.1%


-0.3%


46



Data ARPU Growth

Voice ARPU Growth


Monthly Churn




Kuwait Telecom Company


32.7%

3.6%

-4.1%

2.6%

1641.5%

-25.0%

35.0%

-7.5%

22.7%

475.7%



47



Data ARPU Growth

Voice ARPU Growth


Monthly Churn




T+ Telecomunicações


15.9%

6.3%

-7.4%

2.7%

73.1%

0.0%

53.3%

-12.9%

0.6%

20.5%



48



Data ARPU Growth

Voice ARPU Growth


Monthly Churn




Companhia Santomense de Telecomunicações


7.4%

24.8%

1.6%

15.9%

0%

38.9% 24.5%

Not available


21.1%


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Nokia ● Motorola ● Qualcomm ● Samsung ● Palm Canada ● Google ● SK

Telecom ● Tellabs ● PCCW ● Meteor Mobile ● Sunrise Communications AG

● Djezzy (Algeria) ● Anovoss ● Brightpoint de Colombia ● Embarq

Corporation ● Toppoly Optoelectronics ● SES Americom ● Total Choice

Communications ● Goldman Sachs ● Deutsche Bank ● Lazard Stifel

Financial Corp. ● Tatica Asset Management ● TA Associates ● Bain Capital ●

Westpac Banking Corporation ● PWC ● KPMG ● McKinsey ● Oliver Wyman

● Booz Allen Hamilton ● Monitor Group ● Bain & Company ● Womble

Carlyle LLP ● Salomaa Group/AS-Grey Oy ● OC&C Strategy Consultants ●

Accenture ● Amdocs

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IEMR’S GLOBAL MOBILE OPERATOR FORECAST

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Global mobile operator forecast 2Q 2014 presentation, 2003-2017

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Transcript of Global mobile operator forecast 2Q 2014 presentation, 2003-2017