Towards global migration management The development of EU migration control 1970-2009.
Global migration patterns and drivers - University of Oxford · Global migration: some basic facts...
Transcript of Global migration patterns and drivers - University of Oxford · Global migration: some basic facts...
Mathias CzaikaDanube University Krems, Austria
Global migration –
patterns and drivers
Emerging Markets Symposium 2018
Green Templeton College, Oxford
Global migration: some basic facts
➢ About 90% of currently 245 million international migrants moved voluntarily, the remaining 24 million (~10%) are refugees and asylum seekers
➢ Half of all international migrants moved from developing to developed countries
➢ About 10 destination countries host half of all international migrants
➢ About a quarter of all international migrants originate from 5 emerging economies
➢ One-fifth of all international migration is concentrated in 15 country pairs
➢ Immigration makes up more than half of labour force growth in Western countries
➢ A third of all international migrants are highly skilled (i.e. tertiary educated)
➢ Half of all refugees are hosted in the Middle East and North Africa, and about 90 % are hosted in (conflict-neighboring) developing countries
➢ Migration and mobility are key features and correlates of interconnecting economies and societies
International migrant stocks by world region and
as a percentage of world population, 1960-2015
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
[in
mil
lion
s]
Sub-Saharan Africa
South Asia
North America
Middle East & North Africa
Latin America & Caribbean
Europe & Central Asia
East Asia & Pacific
World Migration Rate
Source: Own, based on World Bank (2017)
Global migration: major hubs and corridors
http://metrocosm.com/global-immigration-map/
Note: Net migration flows between 2010-15 based on UNPD.
Migration transitions since 1960
Source: Czaika and de Haas (2014)
Major shifts in global migration
between 1995 and 2015
29%
3% 1%
7%
Middle income 10% Low income
High income
25% 7%
15%
Middle income 10% Low income
↓16% ↓4%
↑40%
2% 1%
↑11%
High income
13%
Data source: UNDESA (2015)
1995 2015
3% 3%
The top 10 migrant origins and destinations,
in million, 2015
Source: UNDESA (2016)
The “average” OECD immigrant is increasingly educated OECD immigrant stocks by educational attainment, 1980–2010
Note: Linear trend estimation of average emigration rates of migrations from 196 countries of origin into twenty OECD
destination countries. Source: Czaika (2018)
What drives migration?International migration processes are the result of
complex interactions of multiple migration drivers
such as
a. Development gaps and internal/international inequality
b. Economic and political integration („globalisation“)
c. Political and ethnic conflicts
d. Geographic proximity
e. Cultural similarities (language, culture, lifestyle)
f. Historial (incl. colonial) ties
g. Social networks and diasporas
h. Migration and non-migration policies
i. ...
Source: Freedom House (2017)
Deterioration of civil and human rights situations,
2006-16
Source: Economist 2016
Fertility rates, 1970 Fertility rates, 2014
Demographic Transitions, 1970-2014
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Fertility rates by level of development
More developed regions Less developed regions Least developed countries
Data source: UNPD projections
Demographic Transition & Convergence
The European demographic transitionPopulation change by component (annual crude rates), EU-28, 1960–2015 (per 1 000 persons)
Total EU-28
population has
increased by about
100 million people
between 1960 and
2015
Source: Eurostat (2017)
Global labour force by educational attainment,
1950–2010
Note: Linear trend estimations based on educational attainment data for 146 countries from www.barrolee.com of population aged
twenty-five and older. Source: Czaika (2018)
Global emigration rates by educational attainment,
1980–2010
Source: Czaika (2018)
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
45 000
50 000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
[IN USD P.C.] High-income Middle-income Low-income
USD 20 445
USD 34 826
Data source: OECD (2017)
Growing income gaps, 1995-2015
Declining absolute poverty headcount ratios by region, 2011 (ppp)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990
2002
2012
1990
2002
2012
1990
2002
2012
1990
2002
2012
1990
2002
2012
1990
2002
2012
Sub-SaharanAfrica
South Asia East Asia andthe Pacific
Latin Americaand the
Caribbean
Middle Eastand North
Africa
Europe andCentral Asia
%
USD 1.90 a day
Source: World Bank (2016)
Shift in global income distribution,
1970 vs. 2010
Source: World Bank (2017)
The ‘elephant curve’ of global inequality and growth,
1980–2016
Source: WIR (2018)
Global versus country income distributions, 2011
„Internal vs international inequality and mobility options“
Source: Milanovic (2016)
Internal income inequality in emerging
economies, 1990-2013, [in Gini]
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
India Indonesia China(People'sRepublic
of)
SouthAfrica
Brazil Malaysia Argentina Nigeria Philippines Iran Russia Thailand Pakistan
Increasing inequality Decreasing inequality
1990-95 1996-2000 2001-05 2006-10 2011-13
United States (2013)
Sweden (2012)
Source: World Bank (2016)
Emigration rates by level of development
(‘migration transition curve’)
Source: OECD (2017)
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
600 1 200 2 400 4 800 9 600 19 200 38 400 76 800
GDP per capita (USD, log scale´)
BrazilIndia China
Malaysia
Jordan
Pakistan
Economic growth has stimulated emigration from emerging
economies, but it has affected emigration patterns differently
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1960 1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Emigration rate (%)
Brazil Colombia Mexico
Source: OECD (2017)
Migration policy transitions
Source: Cerna/Czaika (2018)
Changes in migration policy restrictiveness,
1995-2014
-1.2
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
High-income countries Middle-income countries
Index>0: more restrictive
Index<0: less restrictive
Source: DEMIG (2015)
The rise of high-skilled migration policies,
2005–15
Source: Own calculations based on World Population Policies database (various years)
A global mobility divide?‘The unequal value of the passport’ - Visa-free travel opportunities by
nationality, 2000s
Source: Czaika et al (2017)
Visa restrictiveness towards internal vs. external
nationalities of regional economic blocs
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Internal External
Note: AFTA: ASEAN Free Trade Area; APTA: Asia Pacific Trade Agreement; CACM: Central American Common Market; CAN: Andean Community; CARICOM:
Caribbean Community; CEFTA: Central European Free Trade Agreement; CEMAC: Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa; CIS: Commonwealth
of Independent States Free Trade Agreement; COMESA: Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa; EAC: East African Community; ECOWAS:
Economic Community of West African States; EFTA: European Free Trade Association; EU: European Union; GCC: Gulf Cooperation Council; LAIA: Latin
American Integration Association; MERCOSUR: Mercado Común del Sur - Common market of the South; NAFTA: North American Free Trade Agreement;
PAFTA: Pan-Arab Free Trade Area; SACU: Southern African Customs Union; SADC: Southern African Development Community; SAFTA: South Asian Free
Trade Agreement
Source: Czaika et al (2017)
To conclude…
➢ Global migration has slightly intensified since 1990s, but has
predominantly diversified across countries of origin and concentrated in
small number of countries of destination
➢ Economic development may decrease or increase emigration
propensities depending on the level of development
➢ BUT: The type and „skill content“ of emigration changes along
development trajectories
➢ Migration is embedded in wider global and regional transformation and
integration processes
➢ ‘Root causes’ and drivers of migration are complex, multi-causal, and
structural and therefore, hard to influence in the short-term
➢ Migration policy takes place in the context of global demographic
change, structural labor demand, and unequal globalization dynamic
➢ Migration policy which aims to counteract structural migratory forces in
countries of origin and destination, is doomed to fail its objectives
Few words on development impact…
➢ International migration boosts global productivity, contributing about 10% of global GDP, despite making up only about 3.4% of world population
➢ International migrants remit more than 500 billion USD per year back into their home countries (with positive impact on poverty but ambiguous impact on inequality)
➢ Migration can neither be blamed for lack of development, nor can migration be expected to trigger a massive development spurt
➢ Migration generally tends to reinforce existing development processes rather than radically changing their direction
➢ Without state-institutional, development-enhancing reforms, migration is unlikely to make a significant contribution to development, but rather leads to cementation of underdevelopment
➢ However, once a growth and development process is underway, migration reinforces these developments through remittances, investment and return
➢ Migration can contribute to poverty reduction and development
➢ BUT: Migration is not a solution to wider structural development problems
Future migration:
the size of the “migration potential”?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Desire to move Plan to move in thenext 12 months
Making preparations tomove
Mill
ion
s
630
14% of
population
aged 15
and over
8% of
those who
wish to
migrate
39% of those
who plan to
move
Source: Gallup (2012)
Aspired vs. actual migration
(‘aspiration-capability gap’)
0
5
10
15
20
25
High-income countries Middle-income countries Low-income countries
Average proportion of people who aspire to move permanently abroad in 2013Average proportion of emigrants in the population of origin country in 2015
Source: Gallup (2012)
The future of global migration?
Source: McKinsey (2016)
Source: McKinsey (2016)
Global total of refugees and asylum seekers,
in millions
Global ‘upward mobility’
Countries of origin and destination by level of development, 2000-2015
A stable flow: financial remittance
Source: World Bank (2017)
Major recipients of remittances, 2016
Source: World bank (2017)
Absolute Relative
Impact of emigration: main transmission channels
• ‘
• ‘Agemts of development’
• Knowledge transfer
• Transnational citizenship
• Mobility of low-skilled labour
• Export of excess labour supply
• HH-income / investments
• Collective remittances
• Social / political Remittances
• Loss of human capital
• Mobility of highly skilled
• Acquisition of new skills
• De-qualification
Brain drain / gain /
wasteRemittances
DiasporaReturn / circular
migration
Impact of emigration on development ambiguous
(short vs. long run)
Income
Migrant income
(+/+)
HH income
(-/+)
Income diversification
(0/+)
Growth
Innovation
(?/+)
Savings
(-/+)
Consumption multiplier
(0/+)
Investment
(-/+)
‘Dutch disease’
(0/-)
Structural change
(0/+)
Inequality
Intra-HH
(-/+)
Intra-community
(-/+)
National
(0/+)
Labour market
HH Labour supply
(-/0)
Un-employment
(+/+)
Skilled LS
(-/+)
LM structure
(?/+)
Wage externalities
(?/+)
Other economic
Inflation
(0/+)
Trade
(+/+)
Foreign exchange
(0/+)
Tax revenues
(-/0)
Dependency (micro/macro)
(-/-)
Non-economic
Demographic
(-/0)
Education
(migrant/public)
(+/+)
Health
(migrant/public)
(+/?)
Governance
(?/?)
Values, culture
(?/?)
Social structure
(?/?)
Globalisation intensity (“economic, political, social
openness”) by level of development, 1980-2015
Source: KOF (2017)
Priorities and measures to attract and retain talent in three
emerging economies
Brazil India Malaysia
Priority
Domestic talent x x
Foreign talent x x
Diaspora x x
Measures
Financial incentives for domestic and foreign talent x x
Educational/research opportunities for domestic talent x x
Diaspora engagement x x
Bilateral labour agreements x x
Right of free circulation x x
Mutual recognition of degrees/ credentials x x
Source: Cerna/Czaika (2018)