Global Megatrendsand the innovation imperative

By Stefan Hajkowicz, CSIRO

How’s Australia Doing at Maths?

613 China, Shanghai

573 Singapore

561 China, Hong Kong

560 Chinese Taipaei

554 Korea

504 Australia

473 Average of 65 Countries in Survey

481 United States

International Comparison of Mathematics SkillsOECD 2012 Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) Scores – Student Performance in Mathematics for 65 Countries

Qatar

Albania

Israe

l

Turkey

Italy

Chinese Taip

ei

Argentina

Russian

Federati

on

Estonia

Latvi

a

Jord

an

OECD averag

e 2003

Irelan

d

Urugu

ay

Belgium

Australi

a

Sweden

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Mathematics SkillsAnnualised Percent Change in OECD PISA Maths Score (i.e. how good we are at doing maths)

Australia

350 400 450 500 550 600 6500

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

R² = 0.21337561894558

Mean Score on Mathematics (Higher is Better)

Nati

onal

Inco

me

(GD

P Pe

r Per

son,

Per

Yea

r Th

ousa

nds o

f US

Dol

lars

)

Mathematics Skills against National Income

Early Thinking The 2015 Megatrends and The

Innovation Imperative

Projections of the Number of 25-34 year olds with tertiary education, 2000 - 2020

“The strong demand for employees in “knowledge economy” fields suggests that the global labour market can continue to absorb the increased supply of highly-educated individuals”.

Worldwide Growth in Education & Skills

“China and India will account for 40% of all young people with a tertiary education in G20 and OECD countries by the year 2020”

Source: OECD Education Indicators in Focus, May 2012

2005 2010 20120%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

18%

Below upper secondary Upper secondary or post-secondary non-tertiary Tertiary education

Unem

ploy

men

t Rat

e

Source: OECD Education Indicators in Focus, May 2012

7% Gap

9% Gap

Great ExpectationsUnemployment rates at educational levels – widening gap for OECD Countries

IBM’s Watson

Google’s Car

47% of Jobs in USA (University of Oxford) and 44% of jobs in Australia are at high risk of computerisation (Price Waterhouse Coopers).

Briggo Coffee Kiosk - 250 sensors and trained by (and meeting the standards of ) the worlds best human barista

But this one smiles

Artificial Intelligence and JobsTask automation and job replacement

What jobs for people?

The Power of the CrowdAnd the Rising Peer-to-Peer Economy

Data Source: The Australian Government Treasury

The Revised trend uses a different definition for income and is therefore not directly comparable. Source: Jonson and Wilkins (2006), Whiteford (2013) and ABS (2013). Note: Horizontal axis corresponds to survey release dates. The interval between surveys varies.

Data Source: The Australian Government Treasury

Income Inequality

Norway 0.25Sweden 0.27Finland 0.26

Chile 0.50Mexico 0.48

United States 0.40

1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 20140%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%Men Aged 25-54 Years Not in the Labour

Force

Perc

ent o

f Tot

al M

en A

ged

25-5

4 Ye

ars

ABS (2015). 6291.0.55.001 - Labour Force, Australia, Detailed. Canberra, Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Innovation, Productivity and ProsperityWe need new & bigger ideas to refuel the economy

19951997

19992001

20032005

20072009

20112013

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

Mul

tifac

tor P

rodu

ctivi

ty

We do need to head back in this direction soonish

Data source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, 5204.0 Australian System of National Accounts

Read “The Great Stagnation – How America Ate All the Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will (Eventually) Feel Better“ by Tyler Cowen

The Innovation ImperativeAnd tomorrow’s knowledge economy

Image Source: Wikimedia Commons, "Night skyline of Brisbane, Queensland, Australia" by wirepic - Flickr

Connect with me …

Twitter@stefanhajkowicz

Buy the book …@ CSIRO Publishing

Thanks for Listening