Global Megatrends

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The 2012 Update of Our Future World Global Megatrends Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz, Hannah Cook, Anna Littleboy

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Global Megatrends. The 2012 Update of Our Future World. Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist. Stefan Hajkowicz, Hannah Cook, Anna Littleboy. The Megatrends. 1. More From Less. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of Global Megatrends

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The 2012 Update of Our Future WorldGlobal MegatrendsDr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist

Stefan Hajkowicz, Hannah Cook, Anna Littleboy

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The Megatrends

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1. More From Less

It suddenly struck me that that tiny pea, pretty and blue, was the Earth. I put up my thumb and shut one eye, and my thumb blotted out the planet Earth. I didn't feel like a giant. I felt very, very small.

- Neil Armstrong

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Food

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Water 1.2 billion people in regions with insufficient water

1.6 billion people in water-scarce river basins with inadequate capacity to develop

International Water Management Institute

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Energy

Data source: International Energy Agency, 2011

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Minerals

Source: Mudd GM, 2009. The Sustainability of Mining in Australia: Key Production Trends and Their Environmental Implications for the Future. Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University and Mineral Policy Institute.

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2. Going, Going … Gone?

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The fate of biological diversity for the next 10 million years will almost certainly be determined during the next 50–100 years by the activities of a single species.

Paul Ehrlich and Robert Pringle, PNAS 2008.

Going, Going… Gone?

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Going, Going … Gone?

Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, Secretariat on the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010

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Going, Going … Gone?Red List

Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 11

Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, Secretariat on the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010

Red List Extinction Risk Index

1 = No concern

0 = Extinct

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Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, Secretariat on the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010

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3. The Silk Highway

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The Silk HighwayIt’s Been So Good in Australia (comparatively)

Data source: World Bank

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The Silk HighwayA Shifting World Economy

Source: Quah, 2011; Global Policy

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The Silk HighwayMaking Cities in 20 Years What Took Europe 400 Years

Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 16Image source: (c) The Chinese UPLA urban planning network, http://www.upla.cn

Statistic derived from analysis of the United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, The 2007 Revision Population Database

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4. Forever YoungAs you grow older, you will discover that you have two hands, one for helping yourself, the other for helping others.

- Audrey Hepburn

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Forever YoungThe Ageing Population – Australia

Data Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Today we’re some 14% over 65 yrs old

It will be 25% by 2050

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Forever YoungRetirement Savings Gap – Tapered Retirement

Source: Rice Warner

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Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development

Forever YoungDiabetes and Overweight Projections

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Data Source: World Masters Association

Forever YoungWanting to Stay Active and Engaged

Toronto, Canada

Aalborg, Aarhus & Herning Denmark

Brisbane, Australia

Portland, Oregon, USA

Melbourne, Australia

Edmonton, Canada

Sydney, Australia

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5. Virtually Here

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Virtually HereThe Growth of Online Retail

Online as a Percentage of Total Retail Sales

2012 20155.1 % 10%

National Australia Bank report a 29% increase in online retail sales in 2011.

Re

tail

Sa

les

Vo

lum

e

Source: Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Australian Bureau of Statistics

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Virtually HereCatch me if you can – New models of retail

Image Source: Flickr.com

Tescos Virtual Grocery Walls

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Virtually HereThe Work (Live?) Anywhere City

Currently 6% of Australian workers telecommute, 11% in the US and 10% in Europe (Access Economics).

The Australian Government aims to increase teleworking to 12% of the workforce (DCDBE).

In Queensland 58% of employees (1.1 million people) have a flexible work arrangement of some type. This includes 13.3% (253,000 people) working from home.

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Virtually HereThe Offshoring Trend

Data Source: BCG, OECD, NASSCOM

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Virtually HereThe Offshoring Trend

In Australia they cost $10,000 to $20,000 per month

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6. Great ExpectationsNow, I return to this young fellow. And the communication I have got to make is, that he has great expectations.

- Charles Dickens

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Great ExpectationsMaslow’s Hierarchy

Esteem – confidence, achievement, respect of others, respect by others

Love and belonging – Friendships, family, partnering

Safety – Shelter, personal security, productive employment, health, property

Physiological Needs – Eating, Sleeping, Breathing, Drinking

Self

Actualization -

Morality, creativity, spontaneity, problem

solving, lack of prejudice, acceptance of facts

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Great ExpectationsDeclining Material Consumption

Data Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development

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Published studies showing materialism is detrimental to well being:1985 - Journal of Consumer Research

1992 - Journal of Consumer Research

1993 - Journal of Consumer Satisfaction, Dissatisfaction, and Complaining Behavior

1993 - Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

2003 - Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

2007 - Family and Consumer Sciences Research Journal

2007 - Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology

2009 - The Journal of Positive Psychology

Published studies showing buying life-experiences improves well being2010 - Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

2009 - The Journal of Positive Psychology

2009 - Journal of Research in Personality

2003 – Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

Great ExpectationsThe Jury is out - Experiences make us happier

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Great ExpectationsUtility - A non-linear relationship

Beers (schooners)

Happiness (utility)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Not likely

More likely

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Great ExpectationsIncreasing Importance of the “Whole Package”

Source: Fair Trade Australia and New Zealand

Fair Trade Logo Sales Revenue – The Moral Dimension

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Basic Expectations

24% < US$1.25/day (47% in 1990)

33% of people in urban slums

15.5 percent of the world’s population (1 billion) hungry

United Nations, 2012

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Thank youDr Stefan HajkowiczLeader – CSIRO Futures | Principal Scientistt +61 7 3833 5540e [email protected] www.csiro.au

CSIRO FUTURES