Global Mega-Trends and Implications

Conference on Investment and Finance of the ICT Sector in the Arab Region ( Tunisia, 9-10 May 2013)

European Tunisian Conference Tunis, 18-19th February 2013

Global Mega-Trends and Implications

for the ICT Sector

Ilyas AZZIOUICNRST. Morocco

Date : 9 May 2013

Mega-Trends ?

We define Mega Trends as global, sustained and macroeconomicforces of development that impact business, economy, society, culturesand personal lives, thereby defining our future world and its increasingpace of change

Urbanization

� More Mega-cities, mega-regions, mega-corridors :� Smart cities, smart infrastructure : will

drive demand for Smarter & GreenerSolutions.Solutions.

Urbanization

Social trends Genration Y

� The population of people above the age of 65 will grow dramatically andmore than double between 2010 & 2020 . It will grow from 530 millionwell into the excess of 1.2 billion.

� Challenge to the healthcare spending in the developped world currently(btw 5% to 10% of GDP) will have to incresase to (btw 15% to 20% ofGDP) UnsustainableUnsustainable

Social trends Genration Y

� The population of people above the age of 65 will grow dramatically andmore than double between 2010 & 2020 . It will grow from 530 millionwell into the excess of 1.2 billion.

� Challenge to the healthcare spending in the developped world currently(btw 5% to 10% of GDP) will have to incresase to (btw 15% to 20% ofGDP) UnsustainableUnsustainable

� The only way to address the healthcare spending issue is to dictate ashift in spending away from treatment to predicting, diagnosing andmonitoring.

� The ICT (e-health, e-medecine) will have an important role to play inaddressing this challenge and opportunity.

Social trends Genration Y

Gen Y (born late 70s or 80s) gaining importance in the market. It has a completelydifferent set of values, beliefs, interest and lifestyle as compared to the otherdemographic segments. Their consumption patterns and preferences will varygreatly from others and a deeper understanding is required to do well inaddressing the needs of this segment:

Personalization and Individualization (P search, P products, Socila network profile)profile)

Techno Savvy and Connected (Digital Marketing, on the move, .)

Environment Friendly (Paperless business, e-gov…)

Demanding, impatient and global

New business models : pay as you go, co-creation, user-driven innovation, social innovation, dig

The Internet of things

Moving from connecting subscribers to connecting devices

The Internet of things

� Important implications for the ICT secor:

� Telecom companies : infrastructure, partnership with It companies to provide security solutions, B to B solutions, smart cities

� Systems integrators: New opportunities

� Entrepises : connected device ecosystem will enable companies to collect real time information on the usage of their products and services. This will increase the pace of innovation, customized offers and lead to New business models

Cloud computing

Cloud computing can be specifically defined as apool of compute, memory and input/outputresources, applications or operatingenvironments with seemingly infinite scalability,delivered as a service over a network, be it privateor public. It has 5 charecteristics:

1. On demand: it is available as and when thecustomer needs it.

2. Pay-as-you-go

3. Rapid Elasticity It enables customers to achievescalability in their business

4. Shared pools: It ensures optimum utilization ofresources by leveraging underutilized capacity

5. Ubiquitous Access : Access is available throughany network enabled device.

Cloud computing

The services available can be broadly classified intothree distinct areas

1. Software as a Service (Saas): Business apps,collaboration, security, office productivity (Zoho,Symantec, google).

2. Infrastructure as a Service : Computing and2. Infrastructure as a Service : Computing andstorage (Amazon web services)

3. Platform as a Service : developers areencouraged to enhance Cloud-based services byusing templates provided by the platform vendorto build their software applications ( Google appsengine)

Cloud computing

Cloud Computing is expected to have three key implications on the ICT industry

1. It will accelerate innovation in the ICT industry. It will reduce the entry barriersfor new companies who want to offer compelling services.

2. It will shake up the ICT industry over a period of time. We will see a greaterparticipation in the enterprise market by large consumer internet companiessuch as Amazon, Google, Apple, and Facebook.such as Amazon, Google, Apple, and Facebook.

3. The area of collaboration – (convergence of social networking, unifiedcommunications, video and mobility) will be the biggest benefactor.

Cloud computing

For end users:

1. Cloud computing offers significant promise for enterprises saddled withinefficient IT infrastructure

2. It also will enable SME’s to have access to applications that were traditionallylimited to large enterprises due to the huge investments needed in start up costs

3. It offers the critical promise of aligning IT with business needs and creating atruly agile business environment

Energy & Smart Grids

Smart Grids is the emerging paradigm in the globalutility and electric power industry. The existing gridhas evolved on the principle of “build and grow”. theutilities have long ignored the need to strike anoptimum balance between growth and efficiency.

Global warming + proliferation of intermittentGlobal warming + proliferation of intermittentrenewable energies (solar , wind) + Advances in theICT technology ⇒ has forced the utilities to rethinktheir business model and technology evolution.

Smart Grids consist of a web of technologies aimed atautomating, improving efficiency, and increasingavailability of the electric grid ranging from generation,transmission, and distribution levels.

Energy & Smart Grids Key components of

Smart Grids

Energy & Smart Grids

1. Metering companis : Smart Meters is the most critical and fundamental part of an advanced metering infrastructure (AMI).

2. Network Communication Providers: efficient data tarnsfer (HAN, LAN, WAN) to meet the objectives ( time of use pricing, demand response

Maping of the business opportunities

WAN) to meet the objectives ( time of use pricing, demand response control,…)

3. Software Solutions Developers: Data Management systems (sensors, smart meters, e..)

4. Integrators and Consultants

5. Automation and Sensor Vendors

New Business models

most markets have started to mature and penetration levels have reached as high as 100 percent in several industries. There is a need for new business models.

The Era of Personalization: Future value creation will reside on how companies allowcustomers to personalize the products and services for their consumption. Several bigcompanies are leveraging the internet as a medium to offer very personalizedexperience of purchase and consumption to consumers.

Co-Creation: The internet has also helped unravel the power of open innovation (P&G, online gaming, Facebook). Companies need to create platforms and networks to enable their customers, partners and suppliers to collaborate.

Being Global: Next generation of companies internet companies start off with thepremise of being global. The competition is global, the resources available are global,and the market is global. (Amazon is a threat to national retailers industry).

Pay As You Go business model : Companies prefer to not acquire assets but to lease them for their needs (Cloud computing). The pervasiveness of the internet, the availability of more information will ensure this business model will become more common place (insurance, automotive, ..)

Thanks for your attention !

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May 8th, 2013 ESCWA Expert meeting 18

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