Global market review of foundation brakes – forecasts to … research also includes the following...
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Global market review of automotive turbochargers – forecasts to 2015 2010 edition
In this report sample you’ll find an overview of the report, a full table of
contents and list of data tables and figures, plus one sample page of each
chapter.
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Author: Ian Henry
Date published: October 2010
Published by:
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Overview
The biggest market for turbocharger use in passenger vehicles (which includes light trucks in the USA) is in Europe, and specifically the diesel segment. Here all diesel engines are turbocharged and indeed they cannot meet current EU emissions rules without a turbocharger. Petrol turbocharger use is less well entrenched in Europe (although Europe is already the largest turbocharger market) and while it should double between 2010 and 2015, the largest growth in volume terms in turbocharger use in the next decade will be in North America, followed by various markets in Asia.
The turbocharger market is noteworthy because new suppliers are entering, something which is rarely seen in automotive components. Plus on the basis that emissions regulations are becoming tougher and tougher the world over, it is inevitable that demand for turbochargers will rise; they may not become xxx% fitment items in all markets, but their penetration rate will continue to trend strongly upwards.
In this latest edition of just-auto's popular global review of turbochargers and superchargers, the following essential researhc and data is provided:
Growth drivers - offering an in-depth analysis of key drivers including:
• Emissions reduction
• Engine downsizing (including historic and forecast volumes of engine
production by size)
• Impact of electric vehicles on turbocharger demand
Technical developments and innovation - a look at some of the most significant technological issues and developments surrounding turbochargers, with specific reference to a number of new engines introduced in recent years. Subjects covered include:
• Turbine geometry
• Multi-stage and linked dual turbochargers
• Twin scroll turbochargers
• Electronic controls
• Manifold-integrated turbochargers
• Bearings
• Development in materials – titanium and plastics
• Thermal management issues
The research also includes the following turbocharged engine case studies:
• BMW's Efficient Dynamics aided by turbocharging
• Two-stage turbocharging – the BMW six-cylinder diesel
• The application of twin turbo technology in small engines
• Turbocharging contributing to emissions reduction on the new E-class
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• Volkswagen Audi's TFSI and TDI engines, the EA888 and TSI 1.4 litre
engines
• Fiat’s Multi-Air technology
• Ford’s EcoBoost
• Turbochargers on CNG and Eco-fuel engines
• Combined supercharger and turbocharger applications
Market take-up – turbocharger use by petrol, diesel and hybrid applications. This section analyses historic and forecasts regional turbocharger demand out to 2015, providing production volumes of diesel and petrol engines with turbochargers. Full analysis of the data compliments the tables. Areas covered include Europe, North America, Japan, China, Korea, India, Thailand, South America, Russia, Africa and Australia.
Turbocharger supplier market shares are provided by region for 2009. Along with full regulatory and industry background information, the report also profiles the main suppliers, reviewing their key technologies.
Use this essential, cost-effective global round-up of this dynamic sector to:
• Gain an overall insight and understanding of all key issues affecting
the sector
• Fully understand all key market drivers
• Review all major technological developments
• Assess the historic and future market sizes and trends
• Understand the key applications and major suppliers
© 2010 All content copyright Aroq Ltd. All rights reserved.
For the latest automotive market research reports and analysis visit: http://www.just-auto.com/market-research/
Contents Chapter 1 Executive summary
Turbochargers – what they do and how they do it
Global and regional patterns of turbocharger use
New suppliers entering the market
Significant growth potential also recognised by established suppliers
Trends in turbocharger use
Threats to turbocharger use
Technical trends and outlook
Chapter 2 Regulatory and industry background Regulatory background to emissions rules
Europe and North America
Asia – Japan and China
Summary
Chapter 3 Technology review
Turbochargers – how they work and their evolution
Superchargers – how they work and in comparison to turbochargers
Turbochargers or superchargers?
Chapter 4 Growth drivers
Emissions reduction
Engine downsizing
Impact of EVs on turbocharger demand
Chapter 5 Technical developments and innovation Turbine geometry
Multi-stage and linked dual turbochargers
Twin scroll turbochargers
Electronic controls
Manifold-integrated turbochargers
Bearings
Development in materials – titanium and plastics
Titanium use spreading
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Using plastic components in turbochargers
Thermal management issues
Turbocharged engine case studies
BMW – Efficient Dynamics aided by turbocharging
Two-stage turbocharging – the BMW six-cylinder diesel
The application of twin turbo technology in small engines
Mercedes-Benz
Turbocharging contributes to emissions reduction on the new E-class
Volkswagen-Audi
The TFSI and TDI engine „brands. – at the heart of the group.s environmental
strategy
The Volkswagen EA888 engine – highlighting several improvements in
turbocharger design
The TSI 1.4 litre engine – downsized, turbochargers and more powerful
Turbocharged diesel sports car application – the 2.0 litre TDI in the Audi TT
Fiat.s Multi-Air technology
Ford.s EcoBoost
Turbochargers on CNG and Eco-fuel engines
Combined supercharger and turbocharger applications
Chapter 6 Market take-up – turbocharger use by petrol, diesel and hybrid applications
Regional analysis
Europe
North America
Japan
Other markets
Chapter 7 Turbocharger supplier market shares
Global market share overview
Europe
North America
Other markets
Chapter 8 Supplier summary
BorgWarner
Overview
Key technologies
Honeywell
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Overview
Key technologies
Bosch-Mahle
Continental-Schaeffler
List of figures Figure 1: Ford.s 6.7 litre engine with Honeywell DualBoost turbocharger
Figure 2: BorgWarner titanium compressor wheel
Figure 3: BMW.s bi-turbo module
Figure 4: BMW TVDI engine as fitted in the latest Mini
Figure 5: Ford.s EcoBoost engine turbocharger and manifold
Figure 6: Ford.s EcoBoost truck engine
Figure 7: Global market shares for turbochargers 2009 (%)
Figure 8: European market shares for turbochargers 2009
Figure 9: North American market shares for turbochargers 2009
Figure 10: BorgWarner VTG turbocharger
Figure 11: BorgWarner VTG turbocharger for Hyundai-Kia
Figure 12: Honeywell.s GT12 turbocharger
Figure 13: Bosch-Mahle.s first turbocharger
Figure 14: Continental.s first turbocharger
List of tables
Table 1: Global turbocharger volumes by major market, 2010 and 2015 (m
units)
Table 2: Global engine production split by no. of cylinders, 2007-2015 (m units)
Table 3: Engine downsizing on the VW TSI engine series
Table 4: Global light vehicle engine production, 2007-2015 (m units and %
turbocharged)
Table 5: Effective number of turbochargers, allowing for twin turbos, 2007-
2015 (m units)
Table 6: European diesel- and petrol-engine turbocharger demand, 2007-2015
(m units, % global demand)
Table 7: North American diesel- and petrol-engine turbocharger demand,
2007-2015 (m units, % global demand)
Table 8: Japanese diesel- and petrol-engine turbocharger demand, 2007-2015
(m units, % global demand)
Table 9: Chinese diesel- and petrol-engine turbocharger demand, 2007-2015
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(m units, % global demand)
Table 10: Korean diesel- and petrol-engine turbocharger demand, 2007-2015
(m units, % global demand)
Table 11: Indian diesel- and petrol-engine turbocharger demand, 2007-2015
(m units, % global demand)
Table 12: Thai diesel- and petrol-engine turbocharger demand, 2007-2015 (m
units, % global demand)
Table 13: South American diesel- and petrol-engine turbocharger demand,
2007-2015 (m units, % global demand)
Table 14: Rest of the world markets, i.e. Russia, Africa and Australia diesel-
and petrol-engine turbocharger demand, 2007-2015 (m units, % global
demand)
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For the latest automotive market research reports and analysis visit: http://www.just-auto.com/market-research/
Chapter 1 Executive summary Turbochargers – what they do and how they do it In simple terms, a
turbocharger is a device fitted to either a petrol or diesel engine which can
increase the power output of the engine by pressure charging the inlet
manifold, increasing the volumetric efficiency of the engine. The air induction
compressor part of this device is powered by a radial turbine which is in turn
driven by engine exhaust – hence the origin of the term „turbo..
This is not a new technology per se and in fact dates back to the 1910s when
the technology was first applied to fighter aircraft. The first significant
development of turbochargers for automotive use was in the 1960s at Garrett
and KKK. In 1973, the first turbocharged Porsche 911 appeared on the road
and this was soon followed by a Saab turbo. Through the 1970s and 1980s,
the technology remained something of a niche product, fitted to a small
number of high performance vehicles at an OE level, as well as in the
aftermarket. For a while in the 1980s the technology was used in Formula 1
racing but was outlawed and later fell out of favour.
However, in the late 1980s and early 1990s, turbocharged diesel engines
began to appear; by this time, turbochargers had been recognised as a means
to improve both the emissions rating and all-round performance of diesel
engines. As emissions rules have become tougher and tougher in recent
years, the advantages of turbocharging in helping to reduce vehicle emissions
have been accepted in the petrol engine segment of the market as well. As a
result of this, and in conjunction with other engine improvements, turbocharger
use has begun to accelerate rapidly, especially in Europe and North America. Global and regional patterns of turbocharger use
The biggest market for turbocharger use in passenger vehicles (which includes
light trucks in the US) is in Europe, and specifically the diesel segment. Here
all diesel engines are turbocharged and indeed they cannot meet current EU
emissions rules without a turbocharger. Petrol turbocharger use is less well
entrenched in Europe (although Europe is already the largest turbocharger
market) and while it should double between 2010 and 2015, the largest growth
in volume terms in turbocharger use in the next decade will be in North
© 2010 All content copyright Aroq Ltd. All rights reserved.
For the latest automotive market research reports and analysis visit: http://www.just-auto.com/market-research/
Chapter 2 Regulatory and industry
background
Regulatory background to emissions rules The automotive industry has faced a progressively tougher regulatory
environment in terms of emissions in recent years; this regulatory “toughness”
is compounded by the lack of consistency between the major regions in terms
of the specifics of the prevailing rules. Full details regarding emissions allowed
for both petrol and diesel engines in each regional or country market is
available at www.dieselnet.com/standards and readers are referred there for
the exact rules and specifications.
Europe and North America In Europe the key driver has been the recent application of Euro V rules and
the impending Euro VI rules which come into force in September 2014 for cars
and September 2015 for light commercial vehicles. In North America, the US
government.s Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) rules have nationwide
applicability, but in many ways the more important rules are those set down in
California in its Low Emission Vehicle rules. LEV II came into force between
2004 and 2010, while the more onerous LEV III will come into force starting in
Model Year 2014, through to 2022. The full details of these rules are set out on
the “dieselnet” web site as noted above, but the key thing about the next round
of California LEV rules are the increased attention paid to NOx emissions and
the long term durability of emissions control systems. Moreover, what is
required in California today will be required soon in the rest of the USA, so
there is no doubt that emissions rules will become increasingly tough
throughout the world.
Asia – Japan and China In Japan, the regulatory environment focuses on reducing fuel consultation first
– and thereby cutting emissions; the rules call for a cut in fuel consumption of
xxxx% between 2004 and 2015 for cars and a cut of xxxx% on light truck fuel
consumption over the same period. Interestingly, in China, the regulatory
environment is increasingly following that of the EU, possibly reflecting the
increasing investments by major European vehicle companies, especially PSA
and the VW group in the country. At present, EU4 rules apply nationwide
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Chapter 3 Technology review
As noted at the outset, a turbocharger is a means to boost engine power by
using the waste energy which remains in exhaust gases. This is one way of
using a conventional compressor to boost engine power. An alternative is to
use a mechanically driven or pressure-wave supercharger. Superchargers are
far less commonly used than turbochargers and are now something of a niche
product. Indeed other than at Volkswagen-Audi, and possibly at GM.s Cadillac
and Chevrolet brands, superchargers have been largely supplanted by
turbochargers.
Turbochargers – how they work and their evolution In simple terms, the principle behind turbocharging is to increase the amount
of air forced into the engine, which in turn increases engine power. The basic
idea behind turbochargers in terms of boosting engine performance is
wellestablished, but it is only in the last decade or so that the all-round benefits
of turbochargers in terms of reducing emissions have been widely recognised
and their application on a widespread basis has accelerated. A turbocharger
takes what is otherwise waste energy in the exhaust gas and forces it back
through a turbine to create boost pressure. This is in turn then directed back
into the engine. In addition, the amount of air forced into the engine can be
further increased by cooling the air – through intercooling in the turbocharger.s
compressor or aftercooling once the air has left the compressor, but before it
re-enters the engine.
The use of a turbocharger means either the power of a given engine size can
be increased, or a specific power output level can be maintained with a smaller
engine displacement. This is what has become referred to in the industry as
downsizing – smaller engines also produce benefits in terms of reduced
engine size and weight, which help further to cut emissions.
Although the technological principles behind turbochargers are relatively
straightforward and well understood, their development and enhancement has
not been entirely without problems. Fitting a turbocharger has implications in
terms of the engine.s operating temperature; early turbochargers also required
higher octane fuel to prevent engine knocking which can happen when
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Chapter 4 Growth Drivers
Emissions reduction The key driver behind growing turbocharger use is increasingly tough
emissions rules; turbochargers are just one of the means which the industry
can use to reduce emissions. According to BorgWarner, the impact of fitting a
turbocharger is that a vehicle.s emissions can be reduced by between xxxxx%;
this is clearly significant, but it should not be forgotten that other engine
technologies help in this regard. For example and again according to
BorgWarner, improvements in fuel economy of xxxx% can be achieved
through the use of Dual Clutch Transmissions, while Cam Phasers can cut
emissions by a further x%. Other technologies employed by the vehicle
companies to reduce emissions include electric power steering, stop-start
Systems, hybrids of various forms and variable valve time and variable valve
lift systems.
The second principal driver behind the increased use of turbochargers is
engine downsizing, although this is really a consequence of the emissions
rules referred to above. Issues such as taxation, sales incentives and related
financial issues have only a marginal impact on turbocharger take-up.
Engine downsizing Although engine downsizing is a consequential driver of rising turbocharger
use, the many examples of this taking place now means specific discussion of
the various approaches of the vehicles companies is required. Downsizing of
engines is something which has always been a potential technique for vehicle
companies to reduce fuel consumption. Engine downsizing has historically
been equated with reduced engine power, so going down this route has run
counter to historic preferences from consumers for more powerful engines and
enhanced vehicle performance. However, rising environmental concerns, the
constant rise in the price of fuel, the perception or fear that fuel shortages will
not be too far away and an increasingly tough regulatory environment have led
to a reversal in opinion both in the industry and amongst consumers regarding
the benefits of engine downsizing. The fact that turbochargers have come to
be recognised as a solution to reducing engine size and cutting emissions, but
while still allowing engine power to be retained, is a key factor behind
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Chapter 5 Technical developments and innovation This chapter looks at some of the most significant technological issues and
developments surrounding turbochargers, with specific reference in the second
half of the chapter to a number of new engines introduced in recent years.
Turbine geometry One of the most significant technical developments in turbocharger design is
the adoption of variable turbine geometry (VTG), sometimes referred to as
variable geometry turbines (VGT) and at Honeywell as VNT, or variable nozzle
turbines; these all involve varying the size of the inlet port of the turbine,
controlling the amount of exhaust gas which flows into the turbine. Honeywell.s
VNT technology works by adjusting the “gas throat” section at the inlet of the
turbine with control either managed by a pressure actuator or via the engine
management system controlling a vacuum actuator.
Recent developments involve movable vanes which control the amount of
engine boost by the degree to which they – the vanes – are kept open or
closed. Because exhaust gas flow is low at slow engine speeds, the vanes are
kept partially closed on start-up; this increases the pressure of the exhaust as
it pushes against the blades. As the pressure builds so the speed at which the
turbine spins increases, generating more boost. Next, as engine speed
increases, so does the flow of the exhaust. This in turn allows the vanes to
open progressively, thereby allowing boost levels to be managed accurately.
Through the use of sensors, the turbine inlet pressure can be managed and
indeed limited to manage boost at full load.
VTG technology has been available for over two decades, but its cost and
technological complexity have combined to delay its widespread application,
at least until recent years. VTG has an especially positive impact on the
performance of diesel engines and is a critical tool in improving diesel engine
fuel efficiency. To date, VTG technology has not been applied on petrol
engines, but BorgWarner told us during the research for this report that
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Chapter 6 Market take-up – turbocharger use by petrol, diesel and hybrid applications
The starting point for the analysis is a global engine production forecast. The
underlying premise is that, following the fall in the market in 2008-09 with the
worldwide recession, engine production will follow vehicle production on a
largely upward curve moving forward in the next few years. Although a double-
dip recession cannot be discounted entirely, the consensus view of industry
analysts is that the next 5-6 years will see rising production volumes.
Based on data from BorgWarner, global light vehicle engine production was
approximately 67.8m units in 2007, falling to just over 56m units in 2009;
consensus forecasts suggest that, especially on the back of rising production
in China, Russia and India (and alongside the expected recovery in Europe
and North America), light vehicle engine production will top 80m units by 2015.
This is summarised in the table below, which also shows the overall
percentage of turbocharged engines.
Table 4: Global light vehicle engine production, 2007-2015 (m units and % turbocharged)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Global LV engine production (m) % turbocharged No. of turbocharged engines (m)
Source: just-auto
The number of turbocharged engines does not quite equate to the number of
turbochargers fitted because of the presence of twin-turbo engines. Based on
our interviews, we estimate the proportion of twin-turbo engines – and the
consequential effective number of turbochargers, to be as shown in the
following table.
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Chapter 7 Turbocharger supplier market shares
Global market share overview The market for turbochargers is dominated by two companies namely
Honeywell and BorgWarner. Together they account for over xxx% of global
demand and in Europe and North America their combined shares are even
higher.
Outside Europe, Cummins has a strong presence in the heavier end of the
light vehicle market, especially in North America and in Japan MHI and IHI
have the majority of the market. The potential demand for turbochargers, as
shown in the growth projections in the previous chapter, is such that two new
entrants have recently emerged, namely Bosch-Mahle in a joint venture and
Continental-Schaeffler.
The emergence of entirely new suppliers in an existing automotive technology
segment is relatively rare; however, turbochargers represent an unusual
situation in that they constitute a growing market for an existing technology,
albeit one which has not reached the limit of its technical development
potential. Most rapidly growing automotive technologies of recent years (eg
airbags, keyless security systems and others) have been entirely new and
have grown from zero fitment rates; in such cases, the emergence of entirely
new suppliers to the industry was to have been expected. Here, however, we
have an established (if under-appreciated and under-utilised) technology which
– alongside significant functional and performance improvements – has
suddenly emerged as a key feature for the future.
It is in this light that the emergence of Bosch-Mahle and Continental-Schaeffler
as new suppliers can be seen as logical; indeed it may be surprising that other
suppliers have not sought to exploit this market potential more aggressively. It
is possible that Cummins could look to move down into smaller vehicle
applications over time, or for the Japanese companies to move more
aggressively outside Japan. That said, the dominance of Honeywell and
BorgWarner at the European and North American vehicle companies is
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Chapter 8 Supplier summary
This section provides overview profiles of the two main players, i.e.
BorgWarner and Honeywell, and initial, available information on the two new
market entrants, Bosch-Mahle and Continental-Schaeffler.
BorgWarner
Overview BorgWarner is a major powertrain supplier, providing a range of technologies
across the engine and drivetrain markets. Engine components account for just
under three quarters of its sales, with drivetrain parts representing the other
quarter of sales.
In a statement to investors recently, the company said that it had booked
around US$xxxbn worth of new business between 2010-2012, of which
turbochargers and related emissions products would account for just over xx%
of the new business.
The key customers for turbochargers in North America is Ford where in
Europe, the company had won significant new business not just with Ford, but
also BMW, Daimler, Fiat, Renault-Nissan and VW-Audi. In addition it has worn
significant new turbocharger business in Asia with GM and VW (in China), as
well as with domestic Chinese vehicle companies and Hyundai-Kia in Korea.
Key technologies In addition to turbochargers – where the company claims leading edge
positions in wastegates, variable turbine geometry and two stage regulated
turbocharger technology – it is active in:
o thermal systems;
o emission controls;
o chain systems, including variable cam timing;
o Beru technologies – i.e. diesel cold start technology, gas ignition
technology and electronics and sensors for these applications;
o transmissions, including dual clutch systems;
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