Global Market Forecast - airbus.com
Transcript of Global Market Forecast - airbus.com
Airbus Global Market Forecast 2021 - 2040
Aviation connects and unites us!
* IATA industry statistics Fact Sheet released in Oct. 2021 (2021 vs. 2020)
Source: ICAO, IATA, IHS Markit, Airbus
An unprecedented shock
Covid in numbers – key data
5.0%RPK growth
-66%RPK decrease
2019 2020
2.7%GDP growth
-3.5%GDP decrease
+200million passengers
-2,700million passengers
82.5%Record Load factor
65.1%Load factor
2021* (YoY)
18%RPK increase
5.6%GDP increase
+470million passengers
67.1%Load factor
Source: OAG, FR24, SABRE, IATA, IHS Markit, OWID,
September 21 projection from Airbus GMF
Airbus expects a full recovery of air traffic between 2023 and 2025
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2019 level
IATA actuals
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Traffic (RPKs) base 100 compared to equivalent month in 2019
Source: Airbus GMF
Social and environmental considerations will play a role
New trends are emerging but too early to estimate traffic impact
Environment awareness
and passenger behaviour(Alternative) Energy costCorporate travel evolution
Source: ATAG, Airbus GMF 2021
Aviation economic benefits extend beyond our industry
Connect small islands to
essential business, education
and health services overseas
$3.5 trillion contribution to
annual global GDP (4%)
and 87 million jobs
Support tourism industry, over
10% of world GDP; with
many small country over 25%
Carries 35% of
World trade in value
GDP remains the fundamental long term driver for traffic growth
World real GDP (billion 2015 USD)
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GMF 2019
GMF 2021
Forecast ~2 years lag
Source: IHS Markit, Airbus GMF
Middle class: Households with yearly income between $20,000 and $150,000 at PPP in constant 2015 US$
Source: Oxford Economics, Airbus GMF
Middle class will enlarge both in relative and absolute numbers
Middle class (millions of people)
% of middle class in world population
43% 49% 59% 63%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2010 2020 2030 2040
Other countries
Mature countries
Emerging countries
Forecast
2,970
3,810
5,000
5,760
x1.9
x1.0
x1.6
vs. 2020
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
18,000
21,000
2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040
GMF 2019
GMF 2021
Source: IHS, Airbus GMF
Traffic to reconnect to pre-crisis trend with 2 years shift
Annual RPK (billions)~2 years lag
Source: Airbus GMF 2021
Mature flows will grow by approx. 2-3% per year
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000 2,250 2,500 2,750
2019 2040
Domestic PRC
Domestic USA
Intra - Western Europe
Western Europe - USA
Western Europe - Middle East
Domestic - Asia Emerging
Domestic - India
Asia Developed - Asia Emerging
Central Europe - Western Europe
Indian Sub-continent - Middle East
Asia Emerging – PRC
PRC - USA
Asia Emerging - Middle East
Asia Developed - USA
Asia Developed - Western Europe
Asia Developed – PRC
Middle East – USA
Western Europe - PRC
Western Europe - South America
Intra - Asia Developed
Annual RPK (billions)
x 1.6
x 1.5
x 1.7
x 1.6
x 1.6
x 1.8
Top 20 traffic flows (RPK)
Source: Airbus GMF 2021
Domestic PRC to become the largest flow. Highest growth to/ from/ within Asia
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000 2,250 2,500 2,750
2019 2040
x 3.2
x 2.2
x 3.6
x 4.2
x 2.4
x 2.8
x 3.1
x 3.5
x 3.8
x 3.1
x 3.2
x 2.8
x 2.6
x 2.3
Domestic PRC
Domestic USA
Intra - Western Europe
Western Europe - USA
Western Europe - Middle East
Domestic - Asia Emerging
Domestic - India
Asia Developed - Asia Emerging
Central Europe - Western Europe
Indian Sub-continent - Middle East
Asia Emerging – PRC
PRC - USA
Asia Emerging - Middle East
Asia Developed - USA
Asia Developed - Western Europe
Asia Developed – PRC
Middle East – USA
Western Europe - PRC
Western Europe - South America
Intra - Asia Developed
Annual RPK (billions)
Top 20 traffic flows (RPK)
0% 50% 100%
2019
1999
0 50 100 150 200
2019
1999
Source: IATA, ICAO, Cirium, OAG, Airbus
Strong industry track record on productivity improvement
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
2019
1999
0 100 200 300 400
2019
1999
+2 hours/day
Daily
utilisation
+18 seats/flight
Average
seats per
flight
+13ppLoad
factor
161
179
69.8%
82.5%
+45%RPK (m)
per a/c
300m
435m
8.5
10.6
Source: IATA, ICAO, EDGAR CO2 emissions, Airbus
Generating considerably lower emissions per Revenue Passenger Kilometre
CO2 emissions per RPK (grams)
0
40
80
120
160
200
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
-53%
Source: Cirium, Airbus
* Western built passenger aircraft above 100 seats – pax aircraft only / **1st generation: A300, DC 9, DC10, 707, 727, 737, 747 / 2nd generation: A310, MD11, MD80, MD90,737, 747, 757, 767, F100
Previous generation: A320 Fam., A330, A340, 717,737NG, 747, 777 / New generation: A220, A320neo Fam., A330neo, A350, A380, 737Max, 777X, 787 & new programs
Only 13% of 2019 fleet in service were new generation aircraft
1st generation** aircraft
(e.g. 727)
2nd generation** aircraft
(e.g. MD80)
Previous generation** aircraft
(e.g. A320ceo)
1st + 2nd + previous generation**
aircraft
New generation** aircraft
(e.g. A320neo; A350…)
OutlookHistory
Number of passenger aircraft in service*
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2019 2025 2030 2035 2040
13%
Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥100seats) & Freight (>10t) | Rounded figures to nearest 10
Source: Airbus GMF 2021
Demand for some 39,000 aircraft over the next 20 years
7,700
15,250
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Beginning 2020 2040 2021-2040 New Deliveries
22,950
46,720
Stay
(34% of 2020 fleet)
Replace
(40% of deliveries)
Grow
(60% of deliveries)
New deliveries
39,020
23,770
Fleet in service (thousands)
Out of the 2021-2040 demand, 76% is for small aircraft category
Note: demand for all commercial aircraft above 100 seats & freighters above 10t
Jet Passenger aircraft >=100 seats and Freighter >=10 tons
Source: Airbus Market Forecasts
29,690 aircraft
76% share of total new del.
5,340 aircraft
14% share of total new del.
3,990 aircraft
10% share of total new del
SMALL MEDIUM LARGE
Jet passenger aircraft >=100 seats and Freighter >=10 tons
Source: Airbus Market Forecasts
2019-2040 fleet in service
1,440
1,740
2,820
3,210
8,390
8,490
9,730
10,900
680
1,110
1,440
1,300
4,950
5,700
3,960
3,810
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000
Africa
CIS
Latin America
Middle East
Europe
North America
Asia-Pacific ex. PRC
PRC, x2.9
2019 2040
x 2.9
x 2.5
x 1.5
Aircraft in service
x 1.7
x 2.5
x 2.0
x 1.6
x 2.1
Jet passenger aircraft >=100 seats and Freighter >=10 tons
Source: Airbus Market Forecasts
Large aircraft demand more concentrated in Middle-East and Asia
5,050
850
520
North
America
5,220
1,080
660
Europe
6,770
1,730
900
Asia/Pacific
2,170
190100
Latin
America
860
150
90
Africa
1,570
440
1,010
Middle East
1,160
160120CIS
6,420
6,9601,440
9,400
2,460
1,100
3,020
6,890
740
590
PRC
8,220
CATEGORY
Small
Medium
Large
Number of aircraftCentre
figure
Source: IATA, Seabury, IHS Economics, Airbus GMF
Strong cargo forecast driven by trade and e-commerce
World international trade World air cargo traffic
83%
17%
77%
23%
215 billion
FTK Express
2019-2040 CAGR +4.7%
General Cargo
2019-2040 CAGR +2.7%2019
2040410 billion
FTK
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2004 2010 2016 2022 2028 2034 2040
(trillion 2015 $US)
Forecast
3.0% 2.5%
4.2%2.7%
CAGR 2004-2019 CAGR 2019-2040
World GDP World international trade
Note: Jet freighter aircraft, payload > 10ton
Source: Airbus GMF21
The freighter fleet will reach almost 3,000 aircraft by 2040
540
1,490
950
2,440
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Beginning 2020 2040 Demand
Stay
Replace
Grow
Demand
Freighter fleet in service
evolution
2,030
2,980
880 new
built
1560
converted
Note: Jet freighter aircraft, payload > 10ton
Source: Airbus GMF
World demand for ~2,440 freighter aircraft 2021-2040
1,000 small
freighters
900 mid size
freighters
540 large
freighters
Small (10t - 40t) Mid-size (40t - 80t) Large (> 80t)
SMALL LARGEMEDIUM
New gen aircraft with 25% lower carbon footprint
39,000 deliveries
Summary
Traffic recovery under way
Fundamental drivers of passenger demand remain
Air traffic (RPK) forecast to grow 3.9% per annum
39,000 new aircraft deliveries by 2040
880 new freighters by 2040
Replacement with latest generation is today’s most significant
lever for decarbonisation
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