GLOBAL LITE REPORT QUARTER BY NUMBERS · 2019-07-11 · Consumer confidence in Canada increased...

1 Copyright © 2019 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.

GLOBAL LITE REPORT

QUARTER BY NUMBERSQ1 2019

Copyright © 2019 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.


CONTENTSWELCOME ........................................................................... 3

REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTSASIA-PACIFIC ....................................................................... 4

NORTH AMERICA .................................................................. 9

EUROPE WEST .................................................................... 13

EUROPE EAST/CENTRAL .................................................... 18

LATIN AMERICA .................................................................. 23

AMERICA AND MIDDLE EAST ............................................. 28


WELCOMEAcross the globe, how companies do business is changing. Consumer behaviors are evolving as demographics shift and advances in technology are opening up new avenues for people to engage with content and brands.

These new connections are unlocking opportunities for marketers to reach consumers. But knowing how and where to connect with consumers in this increasingly complex marketplace can be challenging. As multinationals seek growth across the globe and local companies look beyond their borders, they need help identifying the opportunities that are right for their business.

Our Quarter by Numbers reports help our clients do just that. Our first-quarter 2019 report covers 66 countries across five regions. This quarterly series provides a global snapshot of what’s going on in our markets today.

We produce five reports to help clients zero in on specific regions of the world. The series is available free of charge to all Nielsen clients. They are also for sale to non-clients. This lite report represents an overview of the insights detailed in the five regional reports.

Our five market-level reports are as follows: Asia Pacific (15 countries), North America (two), Latin America (seven), Africa and Middle East (nine), and Europe (33).

If you are interested in purchasing one or more of the individual regional reports, please visit the individual report pages by clicking on the images below.

http://global.shopnielsen.com/all/nielsen-quarter-by-numbers-asia-pacific-q1-2019

http://global.shopnielsen.com/all/nielsen-quarter-by-numbers-north-america-q1-2019

http://global.shopnielsen.com/all/nielsen-quarter-by-numbers-europe-q1-2019

http://global.shopnielsen.com/all/nielsen-quarter-by-numbers-latam-q1-2019

http://global.shopnielsen.com/all/nielsen-quarter-by-numbers-africa-middle-east-q1-2019

4 Copyright © 2019 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute. 4At Nielsen, data drives everything we do—even art. That’s why we used real data to create this image. Copyright © 2019 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.

ASIA-PACIFIC


Justin Sargent

President, China

THE BIG PICTUREMESSAGE FROM JUSTIN SARGENTIn the first quarter of 2019, we welcomed the Year of the Pig into Asia-Pacific with hopes of success and prosperity in this growing region. Asia-Pacific continues to boast some of the world’s highest levels of GDP growth, the most optimistic consumers (increasingly so year on year) and solid fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) growth. GDP growth remains above 6% in China, India, Philippines and Vietnam, despite potential concerns of the U.S.-China trade tensions. Furthermore, the Philippines is now the country with the most confident consumers, while consumer confidence in Vietnam has increased significantly in the latest quarter.

Despite the positive economic outlook and high consumer confidence in the region, the economy is still the top concern for Asia-Pacific consumers. This is particularly pertinent in Malaysia and Thailand, where concerns about the economy increased significantly in the period. Vietnamese consumers are more concerned about health than any other country in the region, and concerns are growing in the Philippines in light of the introduction of sugar taxes, which have garnered much attention. Given the budding developments in these growing companies, it will be important for manufacturers and retailers to stay attuned to consumer desires for healthy products and services.

Despite Chinese New Year being the peak time when Chinese people go on holiday, data from the latest quarter highlight that Chinese consumers plan to spend less on holidays and put more of their spare cash into savings. If consumers do in fact pull back on travel, neighboring countries could suffer the brunt, as millions of Chinese consumers frequently travel to neighboring regions with a high willingness to spend. Despite their planned pull-back on holiday spending, Chinese consumers are not eliminating travel altogether. Overall, planned spending on holidays remains high, and we expect it to rise when the Beijing Daxing Airport opens shortly, which will serve an additional 100 million travellers each year.

Asia’s traditional FMCG industry grew 4.5% in the recent quarter, which is slightly less than in the previous quarter and a year ago. Nonetheless, volume growth remains high in India (+12.9%), Thailand (+4.2%) and Vietnam (+4.1%) based on the average of the last two quarters compared to year ago. Premiumisation also continues to present opportunity in Asia-Pacific, due to the increase in disposable income, urbanisation and consumers’ willingness to spend.

In a recent analysis across 95,000 brands across 11 countries, we found that premium brands (those priced 20% above average) accounted for 28% of value sales. The research also found that a significant number of winning premium brands are local Southeast Asia brands.


CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX


ASIA-PACIFIC AT A GLANCEECONOMIC PULSE OF CONSUMERS AROUND ASIA-PACIFICThe Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen and measures perceptions of local job prospects, personal finances and immediate spending intentions. Consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism and pessimism, respectively.

GDP (% CHANGE PA)

INFLATION Q1 2019Q1 2019 VS

Q4 2018

Japan 0.6 0.7 83 -5

Singapore 1.2 0.5 92 -4

Malaysia 4.5 -0.3 115 -3

Thailand 2.8 0.7 111 -2

Indonesia 5.1 2.5 125 -2

India 5.8 2.5 132 -1

Australia 2.1* 1.3 95 -1

GDP (% CHANGE PA)


Q4 2018

Vietnam 6.8 2.6 129 7

New Zealand

2.7* 1.8* 106 2

Taiwan 1.7 0.3 84 2

Philippines 5.6 3.8 133 2

China 6.4 1.8 115 2

Hong Kong 0.6 2.2 100 1

South Korea 1.8 0.5 49 0

The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.Source: GDP and Inflation reflects % change per annum to Q1 2019. Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)/local governments where not available in EIU* Indicates estimate/forecast


ASIA-PACIFIC AT A GLANCECONSUMER SENTIMENT IN ASIA-PACIFIC

IN = India ID = IndonesiaThe Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.

APAC AU CN HK ID IN JP KO MY NZ PH SG TH TW VNThe economy 2 1 1 -6 1 -2 5 4 8 -2 -4 3 8 -2 7

Health 3 2 2 5 0 4 1 3 -3 1 10 4 2 7 1

APAC AU CN HK ID IN JP KO MY NZ PH SG TH TW VNPutting $ into savings 2 -2 6 -3 -2 -2 -1 -3 -5 2 3 4 -2 -2 -3

Holidays / vacations -2 -1 -6 -1 0 1 5 1 4 -1 -5 3 -3 -2 3

Bars reflect Q1 2019. Table shows comparison to Q4 2018


0

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

APAC AU CN HK ID IN JP KO MY NZ PH SG TH TW VN

31 29

17 18

35 3631 34 31

12

212227

32 3430

45

1713

18

31

16

3023

54

18

28

39

27

44

010%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

APAC AU CN HK ID IN JP KO MY NZ PH SG TH TW VN

6554

45

32

6761

68

29

66

4758

63 60

40

55

36

5749

3832

27

68 66

51

65

46

29

62

75

53

WHAT ARE THE TOP TWO CONCERNS IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS? Q1 2019

Type of concern

WHO’S SPENDING, SAVING AND INVESTING? Q1 2019

After living expenses, how is spare money spent?


LOOKING THROUGH ASIA-PACIFIC’S FAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS LENSFMCG MARKET DYNAMICS

Weighted average - Asia-Pacific - 13 countries

UNIT VALUE GROWTH

THAILAND (+4.2%)HONG KONG (-1.6%)

CHINA (+0.3%)JAPAN (-0.1%)

KOREA (-2.9%)

TAIWAN (-1.4%)

PHILIPPINES (+2.2%)

SINGAPORE (+0.6%)

NEW ZEALAND (+1.5%)

INDIA (+12.9%)

MALAYSIA (+1.6%)

VIETNAM (+4.1%)

INDONESIA (-0.6%)

AUSTRALIA (-0.4%)

VOLUME GROWTH NOMINAL GROWTH

Average volume growth decreasing versus last period

Average volume growth increasing versus last period

WHERE ARE THE FMCG GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES?Average volume growth Q4 2018 & Q1 2019

0

7

MAT YA MAT TY Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19

2.9%

2.2%

5.1%

3.0%

2.2%

5.2%

3.7%

2.4%

6.1%

2.7%

2.1%

4.8%

2.5%

2.2%

4.7%

3.0%

2.0%

5.0%

2.8%

2.1%

4.9%

2.9%

2.0%

4.9%

2.3%

2.2%

4.5%

4.4%

2.1%

6.5%

Colour coding indicates growth or declining trend compared to same 6 month period year agoAverage volume growth of Q4’18 & Q1’19 vs Q4’17 & Q1’18.

*Thailand is not included in regional average due to limited back data from new universe update


NORTH AMERICA


THE BIG PICTUREU.S.: HEALTH CONCERNS DRIVE FRESH SALES Consumer confidence in the U.S. remained high in first-quarter 2019 and flat from fourth-quarter 2018, but optimism was four points lower than in first-quarter 2018 despite similar economic indicators (GDP and inflation are fairly flat compared with last year and previous quarters). This may be linked to health, economy and political stability concerns at the top of the ranking, generating uncertainty about the future.

Declining consumer demand into first-quarter 2019 and stable value growth slowed FMCG market performance. However, there are key pockets of growth as health concerns may be fuelling a more selective consumer, boosting fresh produce and the performance of the premiere fresh grocery channel. Another sign that consumers may be changing their FMCG shopping habits is the growth of private label and smaller brands. It suggests that categories where innovation is not taking off are becoming commoditised, and emerging disruptors may be fueling those trends.

Today, fresh foods are one such disruptor. More specifically, food and beverages sold by weight should be on your radar. Why? Because they are too often overlooked, yet they continue to expand and drive growth across the store. While the likes of beverages, snacks and candy have brought renewed growth to center of store grocery, fresh foods aren’t falling to the wayside. In fact, random weight fresh products alone have brought in $4.6 billion. Putting that into perspective, that’s a huge relative to each department’s performance this year.

CANADA: FOOD INFLATION IS A TOP CONCERNConsumer confidence in Canada increased five points in first-quarter 2019 from the previous quarter, but only three points from the same time last year. Consumer optimism in Canada may have been linked to a decreased inflation rate this quarter, which for the first time in a year, fell below GDP growth. Even so, food prices still rank as the highest concern for Canadian consumers, followed by health and the economy.

In line with such concerns, the FMCG market has observed higher value growth, contrasted with lower volume demand to portray a flat performance overall. Thus, food categories (grocery, produce, deli) have driven most of the value growth, while the decline has stemmed from non-grocery (-2.3%).

Food is therefore where most opportunities are rising, as Canadians invest more time and energy in finding their right lifestyle approach, the industry also has the challenge to grasp what consumers want and execute accordingly. Understanding trends like plant-based, e-commerce, cruelty free, meal kits, label transparency and more will give you and your brands a leading-edge industry positioning and increased basket growth—which seems to be more difficult to achieve these days.

The projected uptick in household income levels, due to robust jobs and wage growth, is likely to continue to support consumer spending. On the flip side, high household debt and moderating economic growth could potentially limit consumers’ discretionary spending in the near future.


NORTH AMERICA AT A GLANCE

Sources: The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen, Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), GDP and Inflation reflects % change vs. year-ago to Q1 2019.

TOP TWO CONCERNS OVER NEXT SIX MONTHS Q1 2019

TOP AREAS FOR SPENDING SPARE MONEY

ECONOMIC PULSE IN NORTH AMERICAThe Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen and measures perceptions of local job prospects, personal finances and immediate spending intentions. Consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism and pessimism, respectively.

CONSUMER SENTIMENTS IN NORTH AMERICA


GDP (% CHANGE vs. YEAR-AGO)


Q4 2018

Canada 1.8 1.6 106 5

United States 2.8 2.3 119 0

ECONOMY IMMIGRATION DEBT POLITICAL STABILITY

JOB SECURITY FOOD PRICES UTILITY BILLS TERRORISM GLOBAL WARMING

HEALTH0

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%24 25

2224

7

16

20

14

5

15

12 13

25

11

15

10

4

11

14

9

0 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%010%20%30%40%50%

SAVINGS 434241

3632

3629

2730

2825

45

3430

3933

2319

1919

HOLIDAYS

PAYING OFF DEBT

NEW CLOTHES

HOME IMPROVEMENTS

CA U.S.

Q1 2019Q1 2018

U.S.CA


LOOKING THROUGH NORTH AMERICA’S FAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS LENS

U.S. FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS

CANADA FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS

Source: Nielsen Retail Measurement Services (RMS), inclusive of Nielsen’s Total Food View, Total U.S. All Outlets Combined (xAOC), 52 weeks to March 30, 2019, UPC-coded and random-weight/non-UPC data

Source: Nielsen MarketTrack, National All Channels, 52 Weeks to March 30, 2019, Excludes Fresh Random weight - Canada

UNIT INFLATION / DEFLATION UNIT % CHANGE DOLLAR % CHANGE

UNIT INFLATION / DEFLATION UNIT % CHANGE DOLLAR % CHANGE


1.3%

-0.1%

1.2%

1.9%

-0.2%

1.7%

0.7%

-0.5%

0.2%1.4%

-0.5%

0.9%1.2%

-0.4%

0.8%1.6%

1.1%

2.7%

2.0%

-0.9%

1.1%2.0%

0.5%

2.5%

1.9%

0.3%2.2%

2.0%

-0.8%

1.2%

0

5


1.7%

0.8%

2.6%

1.3%

-0.2%

1.2%1.7%

0.6%

2.3%

0.0%

1.5%

1.5%

2.2%

-0.3%

1.9%

0.3%

3.2%

3.5%

1.1%

0.3%

1.4%

0.9%

1.4%

2.3%

-0.3%

0.8%0.5% 2.9%

-2.7%

0.2%

0

5


EUROPE WEST


THE BIG PICTUREEUROPE WESTThe Western Europe economic growth slowdown continued in first-quarter 2019 as exports cooled across the region, mainly fueled by less demand in China. This affected most Eurozone markets one way or another, as GDP growth for most Western Europe markets was just over +1%. The impact on Germany was been more evident, as GDP was only +0.7%, due to the country’s strong export-driven growth model and reliance on China. The Eurozone slowdown triggered easing measures by the European Central Bank to keep interest rates at current low levels until the end of 2019. The bank has also taken steps to stimulate lending by banks to the real economy.

The extension of Brexit to 31 October fueled further uncertainty, along with the European Parliament elections, which have driven polarized results across the region. This was largely responsible for consumer sentiment being cautious or less positive in nine out of the 15 Western Europe markets where it is measured. Against this backdrop of uncertainty, it’s increasingly important for brands and retailers to create loyal shoppers and keep them. According to the Nielsen Global Disloyalty Survey 2019, “New is the next big thing as consumer bonds with more established brands weaken and threaten long-term loyalty.”

The survey revealed that one-third (33%) of European consumers state they “love trying new things,” below the global average of 42% but still meaningful for “mature” markets. Also, two-in-five European consumers (40%) believe they are “more likely to try new brands that they have never tried before,” demonstrating an increasing attention to innovation.

Price and heritage still remain a large part of success in driving much-needed loyalty, but online presence, product quality, functionality, local origin, social responsibility and transparency are increasingly important factors in driving loyalty and brand relevance.

Looking forward, economic growth for the Eurozone is forecasted at only +1% for 2019, compared with a global forecast of around +3%. With shoppers limiting their spending somewhat as they consider where and on what they spend on, understanding what levers to pull to ensure brand relevance and that it results in being placed in the shopping basket has become more important than ever.

Olivier Lamare

Retail Services Developed Markets




EUROPE WEST AT A GLANCEECONOMIC PULSE OF CONSUMERS AROUND WESTERN EUROPEThe Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen and measures perceptions of local job prospects, personal finances and immediate spending intentions. Consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism and pessimism, respectively

GDP (% CHANGE PA)


Q4 2018

Spain 2.4 1.1 88 -6

Ireland 3.5 0.8 101 -5

Italy 0.0 1.0 68 -3

Sweden 2.0 1.9 94 -1

U.K. 1.8 1.8 98 -1

Denmark 2.2 1.2 119 -0

GDP (% CHANGE PA)


Q4 2018

France 1.1 1.4 72 8

Finland 2.1 1.2 88 6

Switzerland 1.4 0.6 105 5

Portugal 1.7 0.8 91 4

Austria 1.6 1.6 107 3

Norway 1.4 2.9 92 3

Netherlands 1.8 2.5 108 3

Belgium 1.2 2.2 96 2

Germany 0.7 1.4 104 1

GDP and Inflation reflect % change per annum to Q1 2019 or (-) indicates not available at time of publicationSource: Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)* estimate/OECD/local government sources The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.


EU AT BE CH DE DK ES FI FR GB IE IT NL NO PT SEPutting $ into savings -1 1 6 3 1 3 -5 2 -2 1 5 -3 4 1 1 2

Holidays / vacations 0 2 1 3 -2 2 1 3 3 6 3 2 2 4 3 2

EUROPE WEST AT A GLANCECONSUMER SENTIMENTS IN WESTERN EUROPE

The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.

WHAT ARE THE TOP TWO CONCERNS IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS?Type of concern

WHO’S SPENDING, SAVING AND INVESTING?After living expenses, how is spare money spent



EU AT BE CH DE DK ES FI FR GB IE IT NL NO PT SEThe economy 0 1 2 -2 1 -4 -3 4 1 2 5 -1 3 -1 1 1

Increasing utility 0 2 -3 2 2 -2 0 -5 -9 -2 -3 2 7 2 -2 -2

05%

10%15%

20%25%30%35%

EU AT BE CH DE DK ES FI FR GB IE IT NL NO PT SE

22 21

12

1714

21

12 12 12

2116

6

27

22 2218

16

2429

16

24

17

24

1410

2421

1715

24

12

18

0

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

EU AT BE CH DE DK ES FI FR GB IE IT NL NO PT SE

39 37 37

48 45

35 32

50

29

46 49

4047 49

3935 37 35

47 48 4943 42 41

57

38

5147 50 53

3528


LOOKING THROUGH EUROPE WEST FAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS LENS

FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS – Q1 2019Weighted average – West Europe – 15 countries


-2.5

5.0

-2.5

5.0

-2.5

5.0

0.7%

0.6%1.3%

1.2%

-1.3%

-0.1%

1.3%

-0.4%

1.0%

0.8%

-1.8%

-0.9%

1.2%

-0.4%

0.7%

1.8%

1.7%

3.6%

1.3%

1.4%

2.7%

2.4%

-0.3%

2.1%

1.4%

-0.5%

1.0%

2.3%

-1.1%

1.2%0.8%

2.1%

2.9%

1.5%

1.6%

3.1%

0.9%

-2.1%

-1.2%

0.7%

-1.0%-0.3%

3.6%

0.7%

4.3%

AT BE CH DE DK ES FI FR GB IE IT NL NO PT SE

FINLAND (+0.6%)

SWEDEN (+1.1%)

NORWAY (-0.9%)

NETHERLANDS (+0.2%)

BELGIUM (-1.3%)

AUSTRIA (+0.3%)

ITALY (0%)

SPAIN (+0.8%)PORTUGAL (+0.9%)

SWITZERLAND (-0.9%)FRANCE (-0.4%)

IRELAND (-0.6%)

GERMANY (-1.2%)

U.K. (-0.7%) DENMARK (0%)



UNIT VALUE CHANGE VOLUME CHANGE NOMINAL GROWTH

COLOUR CODING INDICATES GROWTH OR DECLINING TREND COMPARED TO SAME 6 MONTH PERIOD YEAR AGO. AVERAGE VOLUME GROWTH OF Q4’18 & Q1’19 VS Q4’17 & Q1’18


EUROPE EASTAND CENTRAL


THE BIG PICTUREEUROPE CENTRAL AND EASTThe economic performance of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries was mixed in the first quarter of 2019. While some major countries were characterized by political uncertainty and economic challenges (Russia and Turkey), the performance of many smaller Central European countries was strong in the entire European region.

The Baltic countries (Lithuania and Latvia: 3.8% and 3%, respectively), Romania (5%) and Hungary (5.3%) experienced positive GDP growth, which as generated by the increase in domestic consumption and rising personal and government investments. Greece has also witnessed a positive GDP change, thanks to the refinements of the economy, with consumer confidence likely to grow over the next year reflected in improved earnings and willingness to buy things.

It’s important to highlight that GDP is slowing in the region’s more stable countries (Poland and the Czech Republic) as exports decline to West European countries. Nevertheless, labor force shortages in many industries are pushing up wages in these markets, creating a positive impact on consumer sentiment. Notably, the consumer confidence index maintained its strength and stability (105 and 108, respectively) in the first quarter. It’s also important to remember that many CEE countries face difficult economic situations, with fragile consumer confidence. The majority of consumers in Ukraine (92%), Turkey (82%), Belarus (85%), Russia (79%) and Croatia (78%) believe that their country’s economy is in recession, and confidence in most of these countries declined in the first quarter.

In FMCG, growth was driven mainly by price in the region, particularly in Turkey and Russia, where volume consumption declined in the first quarter amid higher inflation. On the other hand, volume consumption has been most positive in Romania, Kazakhstan and Greece.

It remains a challenging environment for manufacturers to win with the economic, social and cultural diversity of consumers in CEE. The Nielsen Global Disloyalty Survey found that national origin is important in the region. Four of the top five European countries where exclusive local buyers share is the highest are based in CEE. This showcases the opportunity for local manufacturers to use locally grown and made as a key selling proposition.

Personal financial situations make consumers more likely to respond by switching brands to lower priced offers than the European average in Turkey, Romania, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Belarus, and Greece. Promotions influence consumers to try new products or switch brands, especially in Turkey, Greece and Poland. The good news is that price is not the only motivating factor to try new things: superior quality and convenience/ease of usage are also highly valued and can help your brands stand out.

Daniel Chorbadjian

Managing Director Eastern Europe




EUROPE CENTRAL AND EAST AT A GLANCEECONOMIC PULSE OF CONSUMERS AROUND EUROPEThe Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen and measures perceptions of local job prospects, personal finances and immediate spending intentions. Consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism and pessimism, respectively.

GDP (ANNUAL % GROWTH)


Q4 2018

Estonia 0.5 2.3 81 -8

Israel 3.5 0.8 98 -6

Kazakhstan 3.8 1.3 77 -6

Croatia 3.9 1.4 75 -5

Turkey -2.6 19.9 83 -4

Slovakia 3.8 2.4 89 -4

Ukraine 2.2 8.9 55 -3

Russia 0.8 5.2 62 -2

Romania 5.0 3.7 99 -2

Greece 1.7 0.7 70 -1

GDP (ANNUAL % GROWTH)


Q4 2018

Lithuania 3.8 2.1 86 5

Belarus 1.1 5.9 70 3

Hungary 5.3 3.2 78 3

Slovenia 3.2 1.3 90 3

Bulgaria 3.4 3.3 85 2

Latvia 3.0 2.9 85 2

Poland 4.7 1.2 105 0

Czech Rep. 2.5 2.7 108 0

GDP and Inflation reflect % change per annum to Q1 2019 /latest available data Source: Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)/OECD/ local government sourcesThe Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.


EU BG BL CZ EE GR HR HU KZ LT LV PL RO RU SI SK TR UAPutting $ into savings -1 3 -2 -2 -3 2 -6 1 1 6 -4 4 2 -3 -1 -1 -5 -5

Holidays / vacations 0 5 -4 -3 8 2 0 3 -2 6 -3 6 -1 3 -1 2 -9 -1

EUROPE CENTRAL AND EAST AT A GLANCECONSUMER SENTIMENT IN EAST AND CENTRAL EUROPE


WHAT ARE THE TOP 2 CONCERNS IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS?Type of concern

WHO’S SPENDING, SAVING AND INVESTING?After living expenses, how is spare money spent



EU BG BL CZ EE GR HR HU KZ LT LV PL RO RU SI SK TR UAThe economy 0 -2 -3 1 0 0 2 -4 1 -3 0 3 0 -2 -1 2 0 -6

Increasing utility bills 0 3 1 5 4 0 13 0 3 1 -3 -6 1 3 1 2 -1 3

0

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

EU BLBG CZ EE GR HR HU KZ LT LV PL RO RU SI SK UATR

22 2113

3225 26

10

24 24 2230

8

19

30

1610

2016

12

2416

26

1220 19 20

30

8

23

13

24

56

1017

36

23

0

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

EU BG BL CZ EE GR HR HU KZ LT LV PL RO RU SI SK UATR

39 37

2822

41

32 353936

4133 31 30

2331 28

24

13

42 43

20

32

55

43

3228 30

39

29

45

32

50

38

24 22

42


RUSSIA (+2.7%)

ESTONIA (+1.2%)

LITHUANIA (+0.3%)

HUNGARY (+2.1%)

POLAND (+2.7%)

BELARUS (+4.4%)

LATVIA (+1.6%)

BULGARIA (+0.5%)

GREECE (+1.4%)

UKRAINE (+6.7%)

KAZAKHSTAN (+2.6%)

CZECH REPUBLIC (-2.1%)SLOVAKIA (-0.3%)

SLOVENIA (-1.1%)CROATIA (+1%) ROMANIA (+6%)

TURKEY (-0.3%)

LOOKING THROUGH EUROPE CENTRAL AND EAST FAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS LENS

FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS – Q1 2019Weighted average - Europe East and Central - 17 countries


-6

30

-6

30

-6

30

0.3%2.9%

3.2% 3.5%

10.5%

14.0%

3.3%

0.2%3.5%

2.4%1.4%3.9%

1.8%3.2%4.9%

1.3%0.5%1.8%

6.0%

0.6%6.6%

6.5%

4.0%

10.5%

3.0%

0.4%3.4%

4.7%

1.4%6.0%

2.5%1.8%4.3%

3.3%

7.1%

10.4%

-0.2%4.6%

4.4%

-0.7%

2.8%2.1% 0.6%

3.0%

3.6%24.9%

-5.0%

20.0%

5.7%

11.1%

16.8%

BG BL CZ EE GR HR HU KZ LT LV PL RO RU SI SK TR UA



UNIT VALUE CHANGE VOLUME CHANGE NOMINAL GROWTH

COLOUR CODING INDICATES GROWTH OR DECLINING TREND COMPARED TO SAME 6 MONTH PERIOD YEAR AGO. AVERAGE VOLUME GROWTH OF Q4’18 & Q1’19 VS Q4’17 & Q1’18

*BL = Belarus


LATIN AMERICA


THE BIG PICTURELATIN AMERICALatin America’s economic growth prospects are expected to be better than in 2018, but performance in the first quarter of 2019 remained moderate due to slowdowns in Brazil and Mexico and the deepening recession in Argentina. A challenging external environment and political uncertainty will continue to weigh on this year’s outlook.

Inflation in Latin America climbed to 8.3% in March 2019, placing additional pressure on shoppers’ wallets. Price pressures have had a greater impact in Brazil, where rising fuel prices have stoked prices and Argentina, where pressures from the weaker peso persist.

Consumer confidence indicators have improved across most countries in Latin America (average confidence index of 95 in Q1 2019). Strengthening confidence levels, however, have yet to translate into increased consumption and spending: The overall FMCG basket decreased 1,4% compared with a year ago.

Within these challenging economic climates, shoppers are looking for ways to stretch their money. Consumers are looking to take advantage of cost-saving options and private labels within discounters and supermarkets that offer regular promotional activities. This has adversely affected the performance of traditional trade retailers who, for the first time, have lost ground in the region.

Armando Uriegas

President, Latin America


LATIN AMERICA AT A GLANCEECONOMIC PULSE OF CONSUMERS AROUND LATIN AMERICAThe Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen and measures perceptions of local job prospects, personal finances and immediate spending intentions. Consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism and pessimism, respectively.


GDP Q1 2019 (% ANNUAL GROWTH)

INFLATION Q1 2019

Q1 2019Q1 2019 VS

Q4 2018

Peru 3.9 2.3 109 13

Costa Rica 2.7 1.4 83 7

Argentina -6.1 51.0 72 5

Mexico 1.4 4.3 101 4

Columbia 2.7 3.2 101 2

Brazil 1.4 4.3 99 -

Chile 2.7 2.0 91 -

The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.Source: GDP and Inflation from Latin Focus, Q1 2019


LATAM BR CL MX CO PE AR CRThe economy -3 -2 -4 -1 -6 -5 3 -5

Job security - -4 -3 4 -6 -10 5 3

Crime - 1 7 0 4 1 -5 4

LATAM AT A GLANCECONSUMER SENTIMENT IN LATIN AMERICA


WHAT ARE THE TOP THREE CONCERNS IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS?

ACTIONS TAKEN TO SAVE ON HOUSEHOLD EXPENSESTop three actions taken to save money (%)



0

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

CRARPECOMXCLBRLATAM

32

23 22

33

11

1916

35

27 2933

3027

35

1822

29 30

44

30

21

3740

21

0

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

CRARPECOMXCLBRLATAM

48 45 46

5953

44

3138

46

36 33

43 42 40

51

30 28 28

4853

65

2923

46

LATAM BR CL MX CO PE AR CROut-of-home entertainment -7 -6 -8 -8 -7 -10 -7 -15

New clothes -3 -2 -2 -1 -8 -7 -7 -8

Grocery brands 0 -1 0 1 4 -10 2 7


COLOR CODING – AVERAGE Q4 2018 & Q1 2019 vs. Q4 2017 & Q1 2018

MEXICO (1.0)

COLOMBIA (-0.4)

CHILE (0.9)

PERU (-2.0)

COSTA RICA (-0.7)

BRAZIL (-1.5)

ARGENTINA (-13.6)

LATIN AMERICA’S FAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS RETAIL LENSFMCG MARKET DYNAMICS

Weighted average - Latin America - 12 countries*

VOLUME GROWTH UNIT VALUE GROWTH NOMINAL GROWTH


-2.0

8.5

-2.0

8.5

-2.0

8.5


5.2

-0.5

4.8

5.6

-1.5

4.1

4.4

0.3

4.8

4.3

0.7

5.0

3.70.3

3.9

3.5

0.2

3.7

5.5

-1.3

4.17.2

-1.7

5.5

8.1

-1.4

6.7

Average volume growth decreasing

Average volume growth increasing

(*) Mexico, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Chile, Argentina, Peru and Uruguay, data from Q1’14 until present. Excluded: Brazil, Colombia, Venezuela, Puerto Rico, Panama and Dominican Republic. Due to enhancements in Uruguay databases LatAm’s MAT YA growth cannot be shown.


AFRICA AND MIDDLE EAST


THE BIG PICTUREAFRICA AND MIDDLE EASTAcross the Middle East, North Africa and the key Sub-Saharan Africa markets of Nigeria, South Africa and Angola, economic growth was subdued in 2018. The growth forecast for this year is lower than anticipated, with improvements only predicted for 2020, as global financial indicators, commodity prices and economic reforms continue to take time to settle.

Across Africa and Middle East (AME), job security is the top concern among consumers, followed by the economy, which has fueled a savings mindset as consumers await their circumstances to improve, before considering spending more openly.

Despite concerns close to their wallets, consumer confidence improved in seven of the eight countries measured in AME, indicating a more favorable outlook for the upcoming 12 months. It also suggests the likelihood of increased spending. Decreasing inflation also provided much needed pricing relief to consumers in many countries, although inflation remains higher than 9% in in Nigeria, Egypt and Ghana.

Improvements in FMCG spending in the latest quarter are evident in seven of the nine countries. Morocco and Cameroon are the exceptions, where spending value and volume are declining. Looking through a longer-term lens, only Morocco has faced volume declines over a six-month period compared with a year ago.

Economic, consumer and retail indicators are looking up for AME in the months ahead. While value for money products are always sought after in tougher times, there are also many consumers seeking higher quality and premium offerings. Smaller, local manufacturers in East and West Africa have been able to capture higher growth with their flexible and value orientated offerings.




AFRICA AND MIDDLE EAST AT A GLANCEECONOMIC AND CONSUMER PULSEThe Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey conducted in collaboration with Nielsen and measures perceptions of local job prospects, personal finances and immediate spending intentions. Consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism and pessimism, respectively.

GDP (% GROWTH PA)


Q4 2018

Kenya 5.9 4.4 101 -1

GDP (% GROWTH PA)


Q4 2018

Nigeria 2.4 11.2 126 9

Morocco 2.9 -0.1 75 4

Egypt 5.5 14.2 85 3

United Arab Emirates

1.7 -2.5 113 3

Saudi Arabia 3.6 -2.1 112 3

South Africa 1.1 4.5 90 2

Ghana 6.8 9.3 108 1

Cameroon 4.6 2.3 N/A 0

GDP is annualised growth, Inflation is quarterly change. Numbers are used for the latest quarter available (GDP – Q4’18, Inflation Q1’19). CCI change is relative to the previous quarter (PQ). CCI data is not available for Cameroon.


AFRICA AND MIDDLE EAST AT A GLANCECONSUMER SENTIMENT

TOP TWO CONCERNS IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS

WHO’S SPENDING, SAVING, AND INVESTING?After living expenses, how is spare money utilized?

Source: The Conference Board ® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen

Chart - Current quarter, Table – Change vs PQ Top Concern and Spending data unavailable for Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria and Cameroon

0

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

EGY MOR KSA UAE ZA

26% 31%23%

17%

34%26%

48%

27% 27%33%

0

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

EGY MOR KSA UAE ZA

30% 33%

17% 21%

37%24%

49%

22%

45%

26%

EGY MOR KSA UAE ZAJob security 1 0 -3 2 1

The economy 3 1 1 0 5

EGY MOR KSA UAE ZAPutting into savings -3% -4% -3% 4% 3%

New clothes -3% 1% -3% -3% 1%


AFRICA AND MIDDLE EAST’S FAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS RETAIL LENS

FMCG MARKET DYNAMICSWeighted average growth Q1’19 vs year ago

UNIT VALUE GROWTH VOLUME GROWTH NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH

FAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS GROWTH OPPORTUNITIESAverage volume growth Q4’18 & Q1’19 vs year ago

9.0%

7.5%

16.5%

7.5%

1.4%

9.0%

1.2%3.4%4.6%

3.5%

2.5%6.0%

13.1%

-1.2%

12.0%

16.7%

-0.5%

16.2%

15.0%

-4.3%

-2.0%-1.1%

10.6%

-3.1%

-3.3%

-1.3%-4.6%

EGY MOR KSA UAE ZA NGR GH KNY CAM

MOROCCO (-4.1%)

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES (+1.9%)

SAUDI ARABIA (+4.9%)

NIGERIA (+11.3%)GHANA (+17.7%)

CAMEROON (+2.9%)

EGYPT (+8.5%)

KENYA (+16.1%)

SOUTH AFRICA (+1.8%)

COLOUR CODING INDICATES GROWING OR DECLINING TREND – AVERAGE Q1’19 & Q4’18 vs. Q1’18 & Q4’17

Average volume growth decreasing

Average volume growth increasing


INTERESTED IN ADDITIONAL INSIGHTS?If you are interested in purchasing one or more of the regional Quarter by Numbers reports, please visit www.global.shopnielsen.com.


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ABOUT NIELSENNielsen Holdings plc (NYSE: NLSN) is a global measurement and data analytics company that provides the most complete and trusted view available of consumers and markets worldwide. Our approach marries proprietary Nielsen data with other data sources to help clients around the world understand what’s happening now, what’s happening next, and how to best act on this knowledge. For more than 90 years Nielsen has provided data and analytics based on scientific rigor and innovation, continually developing new ways to answer the most important questions facing the media, advertising, retail and fast-moving consumer goods industries. An S&P 500 company, Nielsen has operations in over 100 countries, covering more than 90% of the world’s population. For more information, visit www.nielsen.com.

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