Global Infrastructure Mktpl 3.ppt

12
Overview of Environment in U.S. Towers October 13, 2008 Jason Hill Managing Director (617) 345-7316 jhill@mediaventurepartne rs.com

description

 

Transcript of Global Infrastructure Mktpl 3.ppt

Page 1: Global Infrastructure Mktpl 3.ppt

Overview of Environment in U.S. Towers

October 13, 2008

Jason Hill Managing Director

(617) [email protected]

Page 2: Global Infrastructure Mktpl 3.ppt

2

Overview of Media Venture Partners

Page 3: Global Infrastructure Mktpl 3.ppt

3

Media Venture Partners

Media Venture Partners (“MVP”) focuses on telecom, media and technology investment banking

MVP offers merger & acquisition advisory and capital raising services across the following sectors:

Communications towers

Spectrum

Wireless service carriers

Integrated Communications Providers

Broadcast radio & television

Digital media & technology

MVP has a twenty-year history of maximizing value for clients

$14 billion in successful transactions

MVP has closed more than 30 transactions in each of the last three years

Page 4: Global Infrastructure Mktpl 3.ppt

4

Selected Recent Transactions

Page 5: Global Infrastructure Mktpl 3.ppt

5

Market Conditions

We are in unprecedented times and largely unchartered waters

Confidence is minimal to non-existent

Cash is viewed as a key asset

The uncertainty began with the banks and the mortgage market, but now it is being felt in every sector of the economy

Credit is difficult to get, regardless of the industry

Lack of credit affects everything

Government intervention has appeared to be the only solution

Continued attempts by the Treasury to establish confidence

Worldwide efforts are underway to unlock the credit markets

Towers have not been immune

Public tower companies trading at 46% of 52-week high, 14.2x 2008E EBITDA on average

Page 6: Global Infrastructure Mktpl 3.ppt

6

In tough times, it’s better to be a tower company

Tower companies have solid cash flow from high-quality tenants who are under long-term contracts

Tower companies need to watch two key areas

The performance and estimates of the wireless carriers

Subscriber growth

ARPU

Capital expenditures

The credit markets

Availability of credit

Pricing

Page 7: Global Infrastructure Mktpl 3.ppt

7

Is It 2001-2002 All Over Again?

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

24.0

26.0x

AMT CCI

SBAC Average

GSL

HISTORICAL ENTERPRISE VALUE TO EBITDA (12 MONTHS FORWARD)

Page 8: Global Infrastructure Mktpl 3.ppt

8

2001/2002 vs. Today

Positives (2000) Tenant lease-up beat estimates Strong subscriber growth New technologies created new demand,

including fixed wireless and wireless data (Internet is killer app.)

Lease-up rate could exceed 0.4 tenants / year – 4.0 / tenants / tower by 2007

Services to add incremental cash flow Pricing leverage shifting to tower operators

Concerns (mid-2001) Carrier consolidation Tower model was broken – operating leverage

could not be achieved Carrier capex spending was down, focus on

free cash flow Carrier net adds lower than expected Tower companies were over-levered

Then Positives

Subscriber and MOU growth Focus on network New builds from Metro, Leap, Clearwire Enormous growth in data 700 MHz buildouts and LTE Sprint may spin off Nextel New spectrum

Concerns Economy Subscriber and MOU growth, data growth and

capital expenditures may slow Carriers just spent a significant amount on 700

MHz spectrum Lack of capital for businesses fueled by

availability of debt capital Leverage

Now

Page 9: Global Infrastructure Mktpl 3.ppt

9

2001/2002 vs. Today

Wireless

Then Now

12/31/2000 12/31/2001 12/31/2002 10/10/2008 Subs (in millions) 109.5 128.4 141.9 246.9 Penetration 38.9% 45.1% 49.3% 82.3% MOUs/Month/Sub 309 379 454 1,056 ARPU $52.39 $53.60 $53.61 $50.38 EBITDA Margin 26.7% 29.7% 33.1% 34.3%

Towers

Then Now

12/31/2000 12/31/2001 12/31/2002 10/10/2008 Cell Sites 104,288 131,944 158,396 266,623

Tenants per Tower 1.5 1.6 1.7 2.7

EV/EBITDA 28.6x 14.1x 11.0x 14.2x

Leverage 10.4x 11.7x 10.6x 6.7x

Source: Wall Street research and MVP estimates.

Page 10: Global Infrastructure Mktpl 3.ppt

10

Tower Deal Environment Update

Until recently, tower companies were showing strong interest in acquiring new assets The private deal environment remains competitive Limited acquisition opportunities drive strong demand for quality tower portfolios

Small operators own approximately 47% of all towers in the U.S. Deals had been getting done at high multiples of tower cash flow

SBA has announced in the last six months: – TowerCo – 430 towers; Optasite – 548 towers; Lightower – 340 towers

TowerCo announced the purchase of 3,300 towers from Sprint Nextel The market is watching wireless carriers for any sign of decreased capex spending

Analysts projecting wireless capex of $26.5 billion for 2008 – 16% increase over 2007 Wireless carriers expected to add up to 24,000 new sites in 2008 versus 13,700 in 2007

AT&T – Anticipated restart of new site development, upwards of 2,500+ sites to maintain network quality given strong voice and data usage

MetroPCS – Planning major market launches (Boston, New York); Las Vegas and Philadelphia launched

T-Mobile – Has begun to build-out its $4.2 billion worth of AWS spectrum WiMAX expansions (e.g. Sprint / Clearwire with major support from cable companies

and Intel)

Page 11: Global Infrastructure Mktpl 3.ppt

11

Increasing Voice and Data Usage Driving ARPU

Data ARPU in 2005 was $4.34 and has grown to $10.63 in 2Q08

ARPU for AT&T users of the recently released iPhone 3G is estimated at nearly $115

Data now comprises 20% of national carriers’ ARPU, expected to reach 30% by 2011

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Voice MOUs (bns) Data Equivalent MOUs (bns)

VOICE AND DATA MINUTES OF USE VOICE AND DATA ARPU

Source: Wall Street research, Media Venture Partners, LLC.

$49.41 $48.76 $49.42$49.74 $49.41 $49.60$50.27 $50.63$49.86 $49.54$49.69

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

$55

2005 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08

Voice/Other Data

Page 12: Global Infrastructure Mktpl 3.ppt

12

What’s next?

Tower model is “fundamentally sound”

Strong, stable cash flow from high quality tenants in long term contracts

Growth may slow but tower companies continue to be free cash flow positive

We’re in a rough macro period, but cell phones and data are not going away

Deal environment may slow for some period but still lots of towers to be consolidated