Global Inequality and Global Finance A Presentation to the IDEAS Workshop on Financial Crime and...
Transcript of Global Inequality and Global Finance A Presentation to the IDEAS Workshop on Financial Crime and...
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Global Inequality and Global Finance
A Presentation to theIDEAS Workshop on Financial Crime and Fragility under
Financial GlobalizationNew Delhi
December 19, 2005
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byJames K. Galbraith
The University of Texas at Austin
The University of Texas Inequality Project
http://utip.gov.utexas.edu
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The Standard Question: Has Inequality been Rising or Falling?
Three ways to measure it, per Milanovic, 2002
• Un-weighted Between-Country (has been rising in all studies)
• Weighted Between-Country(has fallen mainly because of China)
• Within-country “True”(disputed territory)
?
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Stanley Fischer compares inequality types 1 and 2,
1980-2000.
( 2003 Ely Lecture)
Note that this approachsays nothing about inequalitywithin countries
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Existing studies of “true” world income inequality give conflicting results, recently surveyed by Milanovic
Including Sala-i-Martin’s claim that inequality has been steadily declining…based on Deininger and Squire.
Figure borrowed from Milanovic
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DK Observations1 - 1011 - 2021 - 3031 - 4041 - 50
7000 0 7000 14000 Miles
N
EW
S
Number of Observations Per Country, 1950-1997
Coverage of Deininger and Squire
Version of D&S used by Dollar and Kraay, “Growth is good for the poor.”
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<= 30.06
30.06 - 34.66
34.66 - 39
39 - 44.2
44.2 - 51.51
51.51 - 62.3
World Bank InequalityD&S Gini Coefficients, 1950-1997
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Inequality (Gini)<= 30.0630.06 - 34.6634.66 - 3939 - 44.244.2 - 51.5151.51 - 62.3
Indonesia and India have highly unequal pay. So how do they arrive at highly equal incomes – more equal than Australia or Japan? Through a strong redistributive welfare state? Probably not. Or, if low Ginis in those countries reflect egalitarian but impoverished agriculture – as many who use these data believe -- then why are the D&S Ginis so high in agrarian Africa?
Inequality (Gini)<= 30.0630.06 - 34.6634.66 - 3939 - 44.244.2 - 51.5151.51 - 62.3
Inequality in Asia according to Deininger and Squire
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The U.T. Inequality Project
• Measures Global Pay Inequality• Uses Simple Techniques that Permit Up-to-Date
Measurement at Low Cost• Uses International Data Sets for Global
Comparisons, especially UNIDO’s Industrial Statistics
• Has Many Regional and National Data Sets as well, including for Europe, Russia, China, India, and the U.S.
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T p R R p R T
Tn
r r
j jj
m
j jj
m
j j
jj
ii g
i
j
1 1
1
log
log
pn
njj
A brief review of the Theil Statistic:
n ~ employment; ~ average income; j ~ subscript denoting group
The “Between-Groups Component”The “Between-Groups Component”
R jj
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First Advantage
Many Observations
Said the Bi-Colored Python Rock Snake
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UTIP Observations1 - 1011 - 2021 - 3031 - 4041 - 50
Number of Observations per Country,1963-1999
Note: Observation count for Russia includes USSR1963-1991; China and Brazil blended from multipleeditions of UNIDO ISIC; all others based on 2001edition only.
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1963-1999 Averages<= 0.0178
0.0178 - 0.03556
0.03556 - 0.05158
0.05158 - 0.07439
0.07439 - 0.09872
0.09872 - 0.8926
Global InequalityUTIP Rankings
UTIP-UNIDO measures show China and Australia as the most egalitarian countries in the Asian region; India and Indonesia show high inequality on these measures.
Let’s look at the average values in the UTIP-UNIDO data set, with averages taken over all available observations, 1963-1999.
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1963-1999 Averages<= 0.0178
0.0178 - 0.035560.03556 - 0.05158
0.05158 - 0.07439
0.07439 - 0.098720.09872 - 0.8926
Global InequalityUTIP Rankings
Lowest InequalityIn the Americas
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Second Advantage
Plentiful Historical Detail
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
6365
6769
7173
7577
7981
8385
8789
9193
Iran Iraq
Inequality in Iran and IraqFigure 7
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96
Chile Argentina Brazil
Inequality in the Southern Cone
Revolution
Military Coup
Falklands War
BankingCrisis
War
0
100
200
300
727374757677787980818283848586878889909192939495969798
China Hong Kong
Inequality in Chinaand Hong Kong
Tiananmen
Data for China drawn partly from State Statistical Yearbook
0
50
100
150
200
250
636465666768697071727374757677787980818283848586878889909192939495
Czechoslovakia Hungary Poland
Inequality in Central Europe
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T im e e ffec ts across S ta tes In Ind ian Inequa lityF (18 , 4 55)=3 .0798 , p = .000 02
(C om puted fo r covaria tes a t the ir m eans)V ertica l ba rs deno te 0 .95 con fidence in te rva ls
C o ntro lling fo r S ta te F ixed E ffec ts and P er C ap ita Incom e
1979-80198 1-82
1983-84198 5-86
1987-88198 9-90
1991-921993-94
1995-961997-98
Year
0 .02
0 .03
0 .04
0 .05
0 .06
0 .07
Theil
C ovaria te m eans:PcIncome: .2184046
Start of Liberal Reforms
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Between sector within state inequality, 1979-80
1979-808 - 1718 - 3132 - 4950 - 6061 - 8485 - 115116 - 149150 - 197198 - 264265 - 438
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Between sector within state inequality, 1991-92
1991-928 - 1718 - 3132 - 4950 - 6061 - 8485 - 115116 - 149150 - 197198 - 264265 - 438
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Between sector within state inequality, 1997-98
1997-988 - 1718 - 3132 - 4950 - 6061 - 8485 - 115116 - 149150 - 197198 - 264265 - 438
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Pay Inequality in India by StateControlling for Per Capita Income and Time Effects
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14D
adra
&N
agar
Hav
eli
And
aman
& N
icob
ar
Dam
an &
Diu
Him
acha
l Pra
desh
Wes
t Ben
gal
Meg
hala
ya
Raj
asth
an
Del
hi
Pun
jab
Jam
mu
& K
ashm
ir
Pon
dich
erry
Goa
Har
yana
Mah
aras
htra
Guj
arat
Tam
ilNad
u
Utta
r pr
ades
h
Man
ipur
Bih
ar
Mad
hya
Pra
desh
Kar
nata
ka
Goa
,Dam
an &
Diu
Oris
sa
Cha
ndig
arh
Nag
alan
d
And
hra
prad
esh
Ass
am
Trip
ura
Ker
ala
Th
eil V
alu
e
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Third Advantage
Worldwide Patterns
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With the UTIP data, we can review changes in global inequality both across countries and through time.
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The Scale
Brown: Very large decreases in inequality; more than 8 percent per year.
Red Moderate decreases in inequality.
Pink: Slight Decreases.
Light Blue: No Change or Slight increases
Medium Blue: Large Increases -- Greater than 3 percent per year.
Dark Blue: Very Large Increases -- Greater than 20 percent per year. h
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1963 to 1969
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1970 to 1976
The oil boom: inequality declines in the producing states, but rises in the industrial oil-consuming countries, led by the United States.
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1977 to 1983
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1981 to 1987
… the Age of DebtNote the exceptions to rising inequality are mainly India and China, neither affected by the debt crisis…
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1984 to 1990
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1988 to 1994
The age of globalization…
Now the largest increases in inequality in are the post-communist states; an exception is in booming Southeast Asia, before 1997…
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Fourth Advantage
Finding A Global Pattern
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0.008 0.016 0.025 0.033 0.041 0.049 0.057 0.065 0.074 0.082 above
3D Surface Plot (Tngall4ax.STA 3v*5360c)
z=0.05+0.001*x+-3.974e-6*y
A regression of pay inequality on GDP per capita and time, 1963-1998.
The downward sloping income-inequality relation holds, but with an upward shift over time…
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-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
Tim
e e
ffect
6364656667686970717273747576777879808182838485868788899091929394959697
Year
Global Pay InequalityTime Effect, 1963-1997
Milanovic UnweightedInequality Between Countries
Collapse ofBretton Woods Debt Crisis
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UTIP
-UN
IDO
Log
(T)
Non-OECD vs. OECD
Non-OECD OECD
1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 19931998-4.5
-4
-3.5
-3
-2.5
UTIP
-UN
IDO
Log
(T)
Non-OECD vs. OECD
Non-OECD OECD
1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 19931998
-4.5
-4
-3.5
-3
-2.5
Actual and Simulated Mean Pay Inequality in Rich and Poor Countries
Actual UTIP-UNIDO Without Global Component
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Conclusions:
It is a matter of global, not national governance, especially high interest rates and debt crises.
Inequality rose in most countries in the age of globalization…
Some day, we’ll need a new world financial system to deal with this;
Meanwhile sauve qui peut .
Rising inequality is an issue ofglobal finance.
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For more information:
The University of Texas Inequality Project
http://utip.gov.utexas.edu
Type “Inequality” into Google to find us on the Web