GLOBAL HIGHLIGHTS QUARTER BY NUMBERS - Nielsen€¦ · Comparing the second quarter to the first,...
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GLOBAL HIGHLIGHTS
QUARTER BY NUMBERSQ2 2018
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CONTENTSWELCOME ........................................................................... 3
REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTSASIA-PACIFIC ........................................................................ 4
NORTH AMERICA ................................................................... 9
EUROPE WEST ..................................................................... 13
EUROPE EAST / CENTRAL ................................................... 18
LATIN AMERICA ................................................................... 23
AFRICA AND MIDDLE EAST ................................................. 28
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WELCOMEAcross the globe, how companies do business is changing. Consumer behaviors are evolving as demographics shift and advances in technology are opening up new avenues for people to engage with content and brands.
These new connections are unlocking opportunities for marketers to reach consumers. But knowing how and where to connect with consumers in this increasingly complex marketplace can be challenging. As multinationals seek growth across the globe and local companies look beyond their borders, they need help identifying the opportunities that are right for their business.
Our Quarter by Numbers reports help our clients do just that. Our second-quarter 2018 report covers 65 countries across five regions. This quarterly series provides a global snapshot of what’s going on in our markets today.
We produce five reports to help clients zero in on specific regions of the world. The series is available free of charge to all Nielsen clients. They are also for sale to non-clients. This lite report represents an overview of the insights detailed in the five regional reports.
Our five market-level reports are as follows: Asia Pacific (15 countries), North America (2), Latin America (7), Africa & Middle East (8) and Europe (33).
If you are interested in purchasing one or more of the individual regional reports, please visit www.global.shopnielsen.com
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ASIA-PACIFIC
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THE BIG PICTURE: ASIA-PACIFICTrade tensions between the U.S. and China may have sent jitters across Asia-Pacific markets in recent months, but they have had little effect so far on the region’s economic performance. We are still seeing strong year-on-year growth in many markets, especially China, India, the Philippines and Vietnam. And the economic outlook remains positive, as the Economic Intelligence Unit projects about 4.4% average GDP growth for the region this year.
However, the tensions between U.S. and China may be affecting consumer optimism, as consumer confidence levels plateaued or faltered in many of the region’s markets in the second quarter. Consumer confidence across the Asia-Pacific region fell 3 index points to 112, according to the second-quarter 2018 Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey, which is produced in collaboration with Nielsen. The dip was evenly spread across all three key measures: future job prospects, the state of personal finances, and now being a good time to buy the things people want or need.
Although Asia-Pacific consumers cited the economy as their second-biggest concern, it’s not something they can easily influence. Instead, consumers will react and adapt to broader economic developments, both current and anticipated, by adjusting their retail spend decisions. In contrast, they are much more in control of their health and work-life balance, their No. 1 and No. 3 concerns. These are also areas that can strongly influence fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) trends.
Let’s take work-life balance for example. As is happening globally, consumers in Asia-Pacific are leading increasingly hectic lives and are demanding products, places and processes to overcome everyday obstacles to effortless living.
As detailed in our recent Quest for Convenience report, convenience is a major trend influencing FMCG markets. Across the Asia-Pacific, as well as the world, small format stores are enjoying strong growth, helped by expanding their footprint into smaller urban areas. It’s in these stores that we see some of the best examples of how retailers are meeting consumers’ need for convenience.
But it goes beyond just store layout or product range. Instead, convenience is becoming a quintessential component of companies’ business models. Retailers, both online and offline, are reshaping traditional offerings with new technology and heightened service experience to give consumers back that most valued commodity—time.
Be it product packaging to ensure that health or sustainability information is easily identified or new pack sizes to meet the needs of smaller households, it’s increasingly pivotal that convenience is front and center for retailers and manufacturers alike.
Laura McCullogh
Marketing Effectiveness and Sales Effectiveness Practice Leader: Developing
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The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.Source: GDP and inflation reflects % change per annum to Q2 2018, Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) / local governments where not available in EIU
ASIA-PACIFIC AT A GLANCEECONOMIC PULSE OF CONSUMERS AROUND ASIA-PACIFICThe Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen measures perceptions of local job prospects, personal finances and immediate spending intentions. Consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism and pessimism, respectively.
COUNTRIES WHERE ECONOMIC GROWTH IS HIGHEST HAVE SOME OF THE MOST OPTIMISTIC CONSUMERS.
Q2 2018 Q2 2018 vs Q1 2018
GDP (% change pa) Inflation
Thailand 102 -7 4.6 1.3
India 124 -6 7.4 4.9
Vietnam 120 -4 6.9 3.8
Japan 83 -4 1.3 0.6
Korea 56 -3 2.9 1.5
Taiwan 76 -3 3.3 1.7
Singapore 94 -3 3.8 0.3
Philippines 127 -2 6.9 4.8
New Zealand 102 -2 2.7 1.5
China 113 -2 6.7 1.6
Hong Kong 105 -2 3.5 2.1
Q2 2018 Q2 2018 vs Q1 2018
GDP (% change pa) Inflation
Malaysia 117 13 4.5 1.3
Australia 93 2 2.5 1.9
Indonesia 127 0 5.2 3.2
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
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30
64
16
48
40
64
27
72
10
66
18
65
32
60
25
61
13
64
17
45
23
71
17
69
11
64
16
65
42
70
29
54
15
31
34
64
28
29
32
46
22
55
23
35
28
36
40
43
15
35
17
34
24
49
52
44
39
33
22
49
7 Copyright © 2018 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.
ASIA-PACIFIC AT A GLANCECONSUMER SENTIMENT IN ASIA-PACIFIC
HEALTH HAS BECOME THE TOP CONCERN ACROSS ASIA-PACIFIC. CONSUMERS IN VIETNAM, CHINA AND JAPAN ARE MORE CONCERNED (IN TOP 5 MARKETS GLOBALLY) ABOUT HEALTH AND IS INCREASING STEADILY OVER TIME.
WHAT ARE THE TOP TWO CONCERNS IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS? Q2 2018Type of concern
WHO’S SPENDING, SAVING, AND INVESTING? Q2 2018After living expenses, how is spare money spent?
APAC AU CN HK ID IN JP KO MY NZ PH SG TH TW VN
Health 4 -3 5 0 -3 3 5 -3 -1 0 1 -3 -5 -10 1
Economy 1 0 2 3 2 -1 1 2 -4 -2 -1 1 5 1 -1
APAC AU CN HK ID IN JP KO MY NZ PH SG TH TW VN
Putting into savings 0 5 0 4 1 2 -2 2 -1 -3 3 4 -3 -1 -3
Holidays / vacations 1 -2 3 -1 2 1 -2 -3 2 4 2 -2 -5 1 3
Bars reflect Q2 2018. Table shows comparison to Q1 2018.
Bars reflect Q2 2018. Table shows comparison to Q1 2018.
60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
APAC
APAC
AU
AU
CN
CN
HK
HK
ID
ID
JP
JP
KO
KO
MY
MY
NZ
NZ
PH
PH
SG
SG
TH
TH
TW
TW
VN
VN
IN
IN
% o
f res
pond
ents
% o
f res
pond
ents
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Colour coding indicates growth or declining trend compated to same six-month period year ago.Average volume growth of Q1 ‘18 & Q2 ‘18 vs Q1 ‘17 & Q2 ‘17. Vietnam represents latest annual growth; no 2016 % growth available for comparison.
Average volume growth decreasing versus last period
Average volume growth increasing versus last period
LOOKING THROUGH ASIA-PACIFIC’S FMCG LENSFAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS MARKET DYNAMICS
Weighted average – APAC – 14 countries
WHERE ARE THE FMCG GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES?Average volume growth Q1 2018 and Q2 2018
2.2% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3%
2.6%
2.4%
3.5%3.3%
2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9%
2.1%
1.7%
1.6%1.9%
2.2%
4.4%5.1%
3.6% 4.2%
5.9%
3.9%4.8% 4.9% 4.9%
5.3%
2.9% 2.8% 2.9%
MATYA
MATTY
Q3 16
UNIT VALUE GROWTH
THAILAND (-3.9%)HONG KONG (+2.2%)
CHINA (+3.2%)JAPAN (+0.6%)
KOREA (-0.8%)
TAIWAN (-0.7%)
PHILIPPINES (+0.8%)
SINGAPORE (-0.9%)
NEW ZEALAND (+1.6%)
INDIA (+9.5%)
MALAYSIA (+5.4%)
VIETNAM (+1.2%)
INDONESIA (-0.4%)
AUSTRALIA (+1.3%)
VOLUME GROWTH NOMINAL GROWTH
Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18
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NORTH AMERICA
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THE BIG PICTURE: NORTH AMERICAA CONSERVATIVE QUARTER FOR CONSUMERSDollar growth slowed across North American fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) in the second quarter of 2018. Much of this reflects the fact that Easter fell in the first quarter of the year. Despite slowed sales, however, consumer optimism remained stable quarter over quarter. Consumer confidence across North America remained stable at an index level of 121.
When it comes to spending, American consumers are slightly tightening their belts, but that doesn’t mean they’re not willing to spend if the right opportunity presents itself. Comparing the second quarter to the first, consumers expressed a greater desire to put more money into savings.
After we’ve seen consumers shift to save more in the past, we’ve seen them become more inclined to open their wallets again on the heels of short-term improvements in the economy, political stability, trade relations and the like. So now is the time to consider plans for engaging consumers when their typically short-term fiscal concerns ease.
In Canada, the warm weather has boosted consumers’ desire to spend spare cash on home improvements as pressures to pay off debt appears to have eased since last quarter. Home improvement spending opens doors to opportunity across retail, spanning from deck renovations to entertainment system upgrades to media room expansions—all of which are also amenable to meal occasions.
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE FACTORSIndex Levels – Q2 2018
TOP CONCERNS
CANADA U.S.
7265
616251
7
22 24 21 21 19 16 142022
42
7367
22 20 18 18 23 18 15 15 1524
63
Job
Pros
pect
s
The
econ
omy
The
econ
omy
Fuel
pri
ces
Hea
lth
Deb
t
Deb
t
Hea
lth
Job
secu
rity
Food
pri
ces
Terr
oris
m
Pers
onal
Fi
nanc
es
Goo
d tim
e to
buy
% North America
% Canada
% United States
Q1 2018 Q1 2018Q2 2018 Q2 2018
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NORTH AMERICA AT A GLANCECONSUMER SENTIMENT IN NORTH AMERICA
DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS, MORE CANADIANS SPENT SPARE MONEY, AND LIKELY SPARE TIME, ON HOME IMPROVEMENT. IN AMERICA, MORE PUT SPARE CASH INTO THEIR SAVINGS.
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA, CONSUMERS COUNT THE ECONOMY AND HEALTH AMONG THEIR TOP CONCERNS. FOR MANY AMERICANS, THE EXTENT OF CONCERNS REMAIN STABLE; HOWEVER, INCREASINGLY MORE CANADIANS ARE WORRIED ABOUT FUEL PRICES THIS QUARTER.
TOP TWO CONCERNS OVER NEXT SIX MONTHSQ2 2018
24 2320
15 14 15
6
12
18
1199 9 8
5
15
22
11
18 18
THEECONOMY
HEALTH DEBT JOBSECURITY
TERRORISM POLITICAL STABILITY
FOODPRICES
GLOBALWARMING
WORK/LIFEBALANCE
FUELPRICES
CAN U.S.
Q1 2018 Q2 2018
Savings
Holidays
Paying off debt
New clothes
Home improvement
Savings
Holidays
Paying off debt
New clothes
Home improvement
43
36
36
27
28
48
33
33
31
27
42
34
39
23
19
42
33
34
26
24
CANADA U.S.
9 9
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INFLATIONARY PRESSURES HAVE SLOWED GROWTH, AS AVERAGE UNIT PRICES INCREASED RELATIVE TO A YEAR AGO. THIS QUARTER SAW UNIT DECLINES OF OVER 850 MILLION COMPARED WITH Q2 2017, WHILE DOLLAR GROWTH WAS UP MORE THAN $1.3 BILLION.
FMCG DOLLAR GROWTH IN CANADA WAS TIMID, AND CONSUMPTION REMAINS SLOW, SO THE CHALLENGE TO CAPTURE CONSUMERS’ ATTENTION CONTINUES. INFLATION REMAINED LOW IN Q2.
CANADA FAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS MARKET DYNAMICSLatest 52 weeks – Q2 2018
U.S. FMCG OFFLINE MARKET DYNAMICSLatest 52 weeks – Q2 2018
Source: Nielsen Retail Measurement Services (RMS), Total Food View, Total U.S. All outlets combined (xAOC), 52 weeks to June 30, 2018, UPC-coded and random-weight / non-UPC data
Source: Nielsen MarketTrack, National all channels, 52 weeks to June 23, 2018Excludes fresh random weight – Canada
1.4% 1.8%0.9%
-0.4%
2.2%0.6%
1.7%0.4%
1.8%
0.0%
3.2%
1.1%
-0.1%
1.6%0.0%
0.9%1.0%
2.4% 2.3% 2.5% 1.7%2.3%
0.9% 1.5%1.9%
3.5%
1.4%0.5%
1.5%
0.3%
YEAR AGO CURRENT Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18
UNIT % CHANGE
UNIT % CHANGE
UNIT INFLATION / DEFLATION
UNIT INFLATION / DEFLATION
NOMINAL GROWTH
DOLLAR % CHANGE
-2.2%
1.9%2.1%
1.6% 1.4% 1.4%
-1.4%
-0.2% 1.2% 0.7%-0.3%
0.3%
-0.5%-0.6% 0.3%
0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.8%
0.8%
-0.1%
-0.2%-0.4% -0.6% -0.6%
-1.7% 0.8% 0.8%
2.7% 0.7%
YEAR AGO CURRENT Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18
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EUROPE WEST
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THE BIG PICTURE: EUROPE WESTEuropean consumer confidence has been on the rise over the last few quarters, and the trend continued in the second quarter as some markets continued to see confidence increases: confidence increased five points in both the U.K. and the Netherlands, confidence increased four points in Denmark, and confidence was up three points in Norway and Belgium.
Europeans diverge on the national issues of greatest concern, but health remains high on the list, specifically in Portugal and Finland. Consumers are also monitoring the economy, particularly in Italy and Spain.
FMCG growth remains unpredictable due to local market conditions, changing weather patterns and seasonal impacts. After the upside growth in the first quarter due to an early Easter in 2018, trends in the second quarter were consequently affected and shaped by shifting weather conditions.
FMCG sales growth slowed for the second successive quarter, increasing by 2.4% in value, down from 4.4% in fourth-quarter 2017 and 3.9% in first-quarter 2018. Volume sales fell for the first time since early 2017 in Europe, dropping by 0.1% overall: volume sales fell 2.2% in Belgium, 1.2% in Switzerland, 0.7% in the Netherlands and 0.8% in Spain. Ireland and Sweden were the primary exceptions, where volumes grew by 3.4% and 1.5%, respectively.
Growth is clearly becoming harder to achieve in the region, and the slowdown this quarter reinforces the need for FMCG players to find new ways to achieve sustainable growth. Growth, however, can be obtained. We have found winners across all sectors and markets where companies, segments and channels are performing strongly.
One trend that all players should be mindful of, as detailed in our Quest for Convenience report, is consumers’ increasing need for convenience in all aspects of their busy lives. Across Western Europe, 80% are urbanized—lacking time and seeking ease, utility and simplicity. When we talk about convenience, we’re speaking to any product, innovation or solution that helps consumers go about their daily lives more quickly and efficiently, whether it be through meal kits, home delivery, closer stores with smaller footprints for quick trips or ready-made food items.
Looking ahead, FMCG performance should improve in the third quarter, led by beverage categories, riding the wave of hot weather across Europe this summer and the World Cup competition, as well as high levels of promotions in the region during this important consumption period.
Olivier Lamare
Retail Services Developed Markets
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GDP and inflation reflect % change per annum to Q2 2018 or (-) indicates not available at time of publicationSource: Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) / OECD / Local government sourcesThe Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.
EUROPE WEST MARKETS AT A GLANCEECONOMIC PULSE OF CONSUMERS AROUND EUROPEThe Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen measures perceptions of local job prospects, personal finances and immediate spending intentions. Consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism and pessimism, respectively.
THE MOSTLY POSITIVE GAINS IN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE WERE BALANCED BY STEEP DECLINES IN SELECT MARKETS.
Q2 2018 Q2 2018 vs Q1 2018
GDP (% change pa) Inflation
Portugal 85 -5 2.3 1.0
Switzerland 99 -5 2.5 1.0
Italy 62 -4 1.1 1.0
Germany 107 -1 2.0 1.9
France 78 -1 1.7 2.1
Q2 2018 Q2 2018 vs Q1 2018
GDP (% change pa) Inflation
Ireland 108 5 7.0 0.4
UK 101 5 1.3 2.3
Netherlands 106 5 2.8 1.6
Denmark 118 4 0.8 1.0
Norway 92 3 1.5 2.4
Belgium 91 3 1.3 2.2
Finland 83 1 2.8 1.1
Austria 101 1 3.0 2.2
Spain 92 1 2.7 1.8
Sweden 99 0 3.3 1.9
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
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EUROPE WEST MARKETS AT A GLANCECONSUMER SENTIMENT IN EUROPE
HEALTH AND THE ECONOMY REMAIN KEY CONCERNS, WHILE CONSUMERS ARE MIXED ON WHETHER IT’S A GOOD TIME TO SPEND, SAVE OR INVEST.
WHAT ARE THE TOP TWO CONCERNS IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS?Type of concern
WHO’S SPENDING, SAVING, AND INVESTING? Q2 2018After living expenses, how is spare money spent?
EU AT BE CH DE DK ES FI FR GB IE IT NL NO PT SE
Economy 2 1 1 0 -1 1 4 1 -2 -2 2 9 0 -4 0 0
Health 1 -2 -5 -1 2 3 3 -2 0 -1 0 -2 1 3 -2 0
EU AT BE CH DE DK ES FI FR GB IE IT NL NO PT SE
Putting into savings 0 5 -1 8 -2 5 -3 -4 0 -3 -4 -4 3 -1 3 1
Holidays / vacations 2 -4 -4 -3 -1 -1 -3 0 0 -1 -3 -3 3 0 0 2
New clothes 2 5 5 0 -1 2 2 4 -2 -3 3 0 0 0 3 -2
Bars reflect Q2 2018. Table shows comparison to Q1 2018.
Bars reflect Q2 2018. Table shows comparison to Q1 2018.
25
20
15
10
5
0EU AT BE CH DE ES FI FR GBDK IE NL NO PT SE IT
60
50
40
30
20
10
0EU AT BE CH DE ES FI FR GBDK IE NL NO PT SE IT
40 39 3936
47
34
40
52
31
4952
48
3333
22
3642
33
42
49
36 36
44
30
4044 43
35
56
28
46 51
3127
51
20
36
53
2726
50 50 49
3229
37
45
36
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
30%25%20%15%10%5%0%
% o
f res
pond
ents
% o
f res
pond
ents
20 20 20
28
18
12
7
22 22
28 28
16 1614 14
10
20 20 22
3126
18 18
10
20 2018
13
21 21
9 9
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Colour coding indicates growth or declining trend compared to same six-month period year ago.Average volume growth of Q1 ‘18 & Q2 ‘18 vs Q1 ‘17 & Q2 ‘17.
LOOKING THROUGH EUROPE WEST’S FMCG LENSFAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS MARKET DYNAMICS – Q2 2018
Weighted average – West Europe – 15 countries
WHERE ARE THE FAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES?Average volume growth Q1 2018 and Q2 2018
FINLAND (-0.4%)
SWEDEN (+1.0%)
NORWAY (+0.7%)
NETHERLANDS (-0.7%)
BELGIUM (-1.4%)
AUSTRIA (+0.4%)
ITALY (+0.8%)
SPAIN (0%)PORTUGAL (+1.0%)
SWITZERLAND (-0.9%)FRANCE (-0.1%)
IRELAND (+3.0%)
GERMANY (+0.9%)
U.K. (+0.8%) DENMARK (-0.8%)
Average volume growth decreasing versus last period
Average volume growth increasing versus last period
AT BE CH DE DK FI FR GBES IE NL NO PT SE IT
0.1%
-0.2% 0.6% 1.2%
0.9%
3.1%
2.0%1.0%
0.0%
2.9%
0.3%
1.9%2.2%
2.7%3.1%
0.9%
-0.8%
2.0% 1.8%
-1.2%
1.8%1.1%
-0.7%
4.0%
1.9% 1.5%2.6% 2.6%
0.6% 1.0%
1.6% 1.6%
1.5%
-0.7%
1.0%
-0.7%-0.5%
0.3%0.0%0.0%-0.8%-0.7%
UNIT VALUE CHANGE VOLUME CHANGE NOMINAL GROWTH
-2.2% -0.3%
ESDKDECHBE SEPTNONLITIEGBFRFIAT
0.0%
0.0%0.3%
2.6%1.6%
0.0%-0.5%
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EUROPE EAST
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THE BIG PICTURE: EUROPE EAST / CENTRALOver the last few years, we’ve seen the word convenience more regularly in many of the European market commentaries. Often it has been used to explain why certain channels or categories are growing and reflects a consumer need that has been around for some time but it is apparent that it’s gaining momentum and evolving.
Recently we held a series of webinars on the topic, which explored why consumers are looking for convenience in everything they do and how a blend of format, services and technology innovation will present challenges and opportunities in the FMCG space moving forward. In a session attended by European, Middle East and African attendees, we conducted a live poll asking the audience: Thinking about your own lives, which of the following challenges are becoming more concerning for you? The options that were most supported were:
Although the responses from the nearly 500 attendees reflected the sentiments from people who likely work for big FMCG companies and aren’t likely representative of your average consumer, they paint a picture characterized by the pressures of busy lifestyles. When we asked them “What solutions do you think consumers will increasingly leverage to deliver convenience in their lives over the next two-three years?,” the top responses were:
The sentiment from our poll supports the notion that we will have to continue to change the way we interact with consumers to meet their needs. We will have to fit in with their increasingly busy lives and know more than ever about what they want and how they want it. Convenience will be a big part of this. In eastern and central Europe we continue to see positive signs of confidence and growth, but as we have noted previously, market and consumer optimism in this part of the world is often accompanied by a healthy dose of caution.
• Reduce working hours/work life balance 56%• Ways and time to focus on healthy lifestyle 53%• Overall busyness – “too much to do” 48%• Meal preparation 43%• Traffic congestion 42%
• Home delivery - Products and services 78%• Grab and Go / Prepared products for instant consumption 62%• E-commerce and logistics 46%• Proximity retailing - Close to work/home 44%• Personalised communications and offers 43%
Daniel Chorbadjian
Managing Director Eastern Europe
Roberto Pedretti
Managing Director, Central and Southern Europe
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Growth will not come consistently across channels or categories, but rather will depend on consumer lifestyles and needs. The challenge is that a consumer who is willing to pay more for a product on one occasion because it saves them time may be looking for a product that offers value on a future trip. So it’s critical that FMCG players stay tuned to consumers’ changing sentiment and preferences and adapt as needed.
Health and wellness is another popular focus; value offerings, seasonal products, local and organic, sustainable and ageing are other themes that continue to surface across our markets, and companies should be looking at how they can use these as trends for future business strategies, if they aren’t already.
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GDP and inflation reflect % change per annum to Q2 2018 or (-) indicates not available at time of publicationSource: Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) / OECD / Local government sourcesThe Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.
EUROPE CENTRAL AND EAST MARKETS AT A GLANCEECONOMIC PULSE OF CONSUMERS AROUND EUROPEThe Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen and measures perceptions of local job prospects, personal finances and immediate spending intentions. Consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism and pessimism, respectively.
Q2 2018 Q2 2018 vs Q1 2018
GDP (% change pa) Inflation
Belarus 67 7 3.9 4.5
Estonia 88 7 3.7 3.3
Greece 67 6 2.0 0.7
Slovenia 87 6 3.8 1.9
Bulgaria 85 4 4.3 2.6
Ukraine 62 4 3.6 11.6
Slovakia 93 3 3.5 2.8
Kazakhstan 84 3 4.1 6.2
Russia 70 2 1.7 2.4
Hungary 80 2 4.5 2.7
Poland 105 2 5.0 1.8
Croatia 79 2 2.9 1.9
Lithuania 78 1 3.7 2.6
Serbia 75 1 4.4 1.7
Romania 92 1 4.2 5.4
Czech Rep. 108 0 2.9 2.3
Q2 2018 Q2 2018 vs Q1 2018
GDP (% change pa) Inflation
Latvia 80 -6 4.2 2.4
Turkey 88 -1 5.3 12.8
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
A MIXTURE OF REGIONAL TENSIONS AND IMPROVING ECONOMIC CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN THE MAIN REASONS FOR CONSUMER CONFIDENCE MOVEMENT IN THESE MARKETS.
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22 Copyright © 2018 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.
EUROPE CENTRAL AND EAST MARKETS AT A GLANCECONSUMER SENTIMENT IN EUROPE
PUTTING MONEY INTO SAVINGS IS A LEADING RESPONSE, HIGHLIGHTING A CAUTIOUS MINDSET ACROSS EUROPE, FOLLOWED BY SPENDING ON HOLIDAYS AND CLOTHES.
WHAT ARE THE TOP TWO CONCERNS IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS?Type of concern
WHO’S SPENDING, SAVING, AND INVESTING?After living expenses, how is spare money spent?
EU BG BL CZ EE GR HR HU KZ LT LV PL RO RS RU SI SK TR UA
Health 1 -4 -4 -1 -6 0 -1 -1 1 2 -2 3 8 -1 3 -1 -2 -3 -4
Economy 2 1 4 1 3 2 0 -2 -4 -3 6 -3 -3 -2 1 -2 4 23 0
Bars reflect Q2 2018. Table shows comparison to Q1 2018.
EU BG BL CZ EE GR HR HU KZ LT LV PL RO RS RU SI SK TR UA
Putting into savings 0 -1 1 5 -1 5 0 4 -3 -5 0 4 -4 -1 3 1 0 6 1
Holidays / vacations 2 5 6 7 8 3 2 5 3 2 5 3 5 1 2 2 2 10 12
New clothes 2 6 8 8 4 2 5 4 3 -3 2 0 2 1 3 3 4 6 4
Bars reflect Q2 2018. Table shows comparison to Q1 2018.
EU BG BL CZ EE HR HU KZGR LT PL RO RS RU SI SK TR UA LV
20 2023
27 26 28 25
22
29
21
15
27
17
21
31
12
9
31
20
28
10
35
20
26
15
27
17
31
8
35
18
21
3
60
11 6
24
12
EU BG BL CZ EE HR HU KZGR LT PL RO RS RU SI SK TR UA
LV
40 39 39
30
37 36
28
23
32
43
3734 35
41
23
34
28 27
34
26
37
33
27
19 20 21
3735
38
20 21
38
28
58
41
47
35 3539
26 26 25
3229
40 39
31
19
45
34
29
54
50
54
28
3335
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
% o
f res
pond
ents
% o
f res
pond
ents
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Colour coding indicates growth or declining trend compared to same six-month period year ago.Average volume growth of Q1 ‘18 & Q2 ‘18 vs Q1 ‘17 & Q2 ‘17.
LOOKING THROUGH EUROPE CENTRAL AND EAST’S FMCG LENSFAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS MARKET DYNAMICS – Q2 2018Weighted average – Europe East and Central – 18 countries
WHERE ARE THE FMCG GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES?Average volume growth Q1 2018 and Q2 2018
Average volume growth decreasing versus last period
Average volume growth increasing versus last period
RUSSIA (+3.7%)
ESTONIA (-1.4%)
LITHUANIA (-0.3%)
HUNGARY (+3.9%)
SERBIA (+0.1%)
POLAND (+3.3%)
BELARUS (+7.1%)
LATVIA (+2.2%)
BULGARIA (+4.6%)GREECE (+3.3%)
UKRAINE (+10.6%)
KAZAKHSTAN (-2.9%)
CZECH REPUBLIC (-1.0%)SLOVAKIA (-2.9%)
SLOVENIA (-0.2%)CROATIA (0%) ROMANIA (+4.4%)
TURKEY (+2.8%)
EU BG BL CZ EE HR HU KZGR LT PL RO RS RU SI SK TR UA LV
40 39 39
20
58
19
3.4%
3.8 %
4.4%
8.3%
3.8%
2.9%
3.8%1.5% 1.5%
-1.0%-1.1%
3.5%5.4%
1.6% 2.2% 1.7%4.4%1.7%
2.6%1.5%
-5.6%
4.3 %
5.3%
2.9% 1.8% 2.8%
5.0%0.7%
3.7%
-4.1%-1.8%
13.7%
10.1%
10.2%2.9%
VOLUME CHANGEUNIT VALUE CHANGE*BL = BELARUS NOMINAL GROWTH
7.2%
12.7%
0.9% 2.8%
0.2%
-1.1% -1.0%
0.7%1.6%
0.5%
7.8%-0.2%
3.1%4.8%
3.4%
9.7%
3.6% 6.8%
1.0% -0.4%
16.6% 20.4%
3.5%
-2.9%
3.8%
4.3%
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LATIN AMERICA
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THE BIG PICTURE: LATIN AMERICAGDP across Latin America increased by 1.8% in the second quarter, and researchers at BBVA project that GDP will grow at a rate of 2.1% in 2019. The growth recovery, however, is far from consistent across the region, as financial volatility is causing concern among consumers in Argentina and Brazil. Comparatively, Mexico, Colombia and Peru are experiencing positive growth momentum.
Across most of Latin America, we have observed a stable economic environment, moderate exchange rate depreciation, lower political stress and lower inflationary pressure. In Brazil, Argentina and Peru, consumers are less optimistic and have lower levels of confidence.
In this cautious economic environment, consumers continue to spend with a savings mindset, seeking deals and value where they can, with price the key decision driver for FMCG purchases. Many manufacturers and retailers have adapted their offerings in this environment, helping consumers better administrate their tight budgets through sizing strategies or promotional efforts.
In order to grow, companies must consider the longer term by focusing on consumers’ increasing need for convenient options, leveraging digital strategies, e-commerce and personalized offers to focus on those future generations with higher purchasing power: Millennials, Centennials and older consumers.
Sources: The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen. GDP and Inflation from Latin Focus, Q2 2018
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Sources: The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen. GDP and Inflation from Latin Focus, Q2 2018
ECONOMIC PULSE OF CONSUMERS AROUND LATIN AMERICAThe Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen measures perceptions of local job prospects, personal finances and immediate spending intentions. Consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism and pessimism, respectively.
INCREASING INFLATION RATES, HIGHER CURRENCY EXCHANGE AND MARKET INSTABILITY IS DRIVING CONCERN ACROSS BRAZIL, ARGENTINA, PERU AND CHILE.
GDP (annual % growth) Q2 2018 Inflation Q2 2018 Q2 2018 Q2 2018 vs Q1 2018
Brazil 1.3 4.4 81 -7
Chile 4.6 2.5 91 -4
Mexico 2.7 4.6 96 3
Colombia 2.5 3.2 101 2
Peru 4.8 1.4 90 -5
Argentina -0.5 29.5 76 -7
Costa Rica 3.1 2.1 87 4
LATIN FOCUS ECONOMICS CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
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Source: The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.
CONSUMERS ARE BEING MORE CAUTIOUS, EVEN WITH THEIR PERSONAL CONSUMPTION; THEY ARE PLANNING MORE AND SAVING MONEY AS MUCH AS IS POSSIBLE.
LATIN AMERICA AT A GLANCECONSUMER SENTIMENT IN LATIN AMERICA
WHAT ARE THE TOP 3 CONCERNS IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS?Type of concern (%)
ACTIONS TAKEN TO SAVE ON HOUSEHOLD EXPENSESTop 3 actions taken to save money (%)
LATAM BR CL MX CO PE AR CR
The economy 5 9 -5 5 6 2 4 -4
Job security 0 -2 -3 -1 6 5 -3 0
Crime -2 -9 6 3 3 -6 1 -1
LATAM BR CL MX CO PE AR CR
Out-of-home entertainment 2 1 0 -4 4 8 11 9
New clothes 1 1 6 -2 -2 9 5 4
Grocery brands 2 1 0 2 4 6 6 4
Bars reflect Q2 2018. Table shows comparison to Q1 2018.
Bars reflect Q2 2018. Table shows comparison to Q1 2018.
37
51
42
59
13
39
33
38
32
44
31
38
37
55
33
45
22
49
9
55
32
43
27
33
41
47
36
43
26
54
38
34
21
46
15
41
30
47
30
44
18
51
26
38
25
66
19
48
LATAM
LATAM
CR
CR
BR
BR
CL
CL
MX
MX
CO
CO
AR
AR
PE
PE
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
% o
f res
pond
ents
% o
f res
pond
ents
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Colour coding indicates growth or declining trend compared to same six-month period year ago.Average volume growth of Q1 ‘18 & Q2 ‘18 vs Q1 ‘17 & Q2 ‘17.
LOOKING THROUGH LATIN AMERICA’S FMCG LENSFAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS MARKET DYNAMICS
Weighted average – LatAm – 13 countries*
WHERE ARE THE FMCG GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES?Average volume growth Q1 2018 and Q2 2018
Average volume growth decreasing versus last period
Average volume growth increasing versus last period
MEXICO (+3.1%)
COLOMBIA (+0.4%)
CHILE (+1.1%)
PERU (-6.4%)
COSTA RICA (-0.7%)
BRAZIL (-1.6%)
ARGENTINA (+2.8%)
(*) Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Colombia, Chile, Argentina, Brazil, Peru and Uruguay data from Q1 ‘14 until present. Excluded: Venezuela, Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic.
-1.0%
-1.6%
1.5%
-2.2% -2.3%-2.6%-2.9%
4.8%9.3%
6.9% 4.1% 4.0% 3.4%4.4%8.2%
-3.9%
3.2%
7.0%5.6%
4.8%
0.6% 0.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3%
4.6%4.5% 4.8%
2.1%
3.7%
2016 2017 Q3 16
UNIT VALUE GROWTH VOLUME GROWTH NOMINAL GROWTH
Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18
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AFRICA AND MIDDLE EAST
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THE BIG PICTURE: AFRICA & MIDDLE EASTThe Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region’s annualized economic growth strengthened in second-quarter 2018, with GDP increasing by 2.8%, ahead of the first quarter’s growth of 2.5%, representing the strongest expansion in more than a year.
The acceleration reflected stronger growth among oil-exporting countries, as crude oil prices were around 50% higher than levels last year. Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries also benefited from the recovery in non-oil activities in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which were affected in first-quarter 2018 by the introduction of a value-added tax.
Sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA’s) economy picked up pace in the first quarter of 2018, with regional GDP increasing by 3% year-over-year, surpassing the 2.8% prediction by Focus Economics. At mid-year, however, the full-year forecast for the SSA economy was revised down, the first downgrade in 10 months. SSA’s GDP is now expected to grow at 3.4%, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous forecast, although still ahead of 2017’s 2.5% level. While higher commodity prices, improved agricultural output and recovering domestic demand should drive faster recovery, challenging business environments, poor infrastructure and high debt loads will continue to affect activity.
Second-quarter 2018 consumer confidence levels increased in five of the Africa and Middle East (AME) countries (Morocco, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and Kenya). And while confidence dropped in Ghana, the overall index for MENA remains positive. In Egypt and South Africa, where confidence declined from second-quarter 2018, both country scores are ahead of where they were a year ago. The positive consumer sentiment bodes well for rising consumer demand and subsequent recovery in retail sales. And coupled with improving inflationary conditions in many AME countries, the second half of 2018 holds promising growth opportunities for consumer goods manufacturers and retailers.
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Source: Trading Economics, GDP and Inflation. The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.
GDP and Inflation are annualised for the latest quarter available (GDP – Q1 ‘18, inflation Q2 ‘18). CCI change is relative to the previous quarter (PQ).
AFRICA & MIDDLE EAST AT A GLANCEECONOMIC AND CONSUMER PULSEThe Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen and measures perceptions of local job prospects, personal finances and immediate spending intentions. Consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism and pessimism, respectively.
CONSUMER SENTIMENT CLIMBED IN FIVE COUNTRIES, WHICH CORRESPONDS WITH MORE FAVOURABLE AND LOWERING INFLATION LEVELS.
CCI Q2 2018
CCI CHG vs P/Q
GDP Annual Growth
Inflation
Ghana 108 -12 6.8 10.0
Egypt 80 -5 5.4 10.9
South Africa 90 -5 0.8 4.2
CCI Q2 2018
CHG vs P/Q
GDP Annual Growth
Inflation
Saudi Arabia 107 11 1.2 2.1
Nigeria 122 9 1.9 10.7
United Arab Emirates 116 6 – 3.3
Morocco 70 3 2.9 2.5
Kenya 104 2 5.7 4.3
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
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Source: The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.
AFRICA & MIDDLE EAST AT A GLANCE
CONSUMER SENTIMENTTop two concerns in the next six months
WHO’S SPENDING, SAVING AND INVESTING?After living expenses, how is spare money utilized?
CAUTIONARY SENTIMENT REGARDING SPEND PREVAILS, WITH CONSUMERS OPTING TO SAVE RATHER THAN SPEND. ALL COUNTRIES SHOW POSITIVE INCREASES TOWARD SPEND ON CLOTHING.
EGY MOR KSA UAE ZA
Job security -1 -2 -3 -3 5
The economy -2 -1 3 1 -3
EGY MOR KSA UAE ZA
Putting into savings 1% 7% 2% 1% -2%
New clothes 1% 4% 7% 4% 2%
Chart – current quarter; Table – change vs PQ
Top concern and spending data unavailable for Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria
22
38
25
23
39
45
42
44
29
44
29
28
16
20
29
26
24
25
25
30
EGY
EGY
MOR
MOR
KSA
KSA
UAE
UAE
ZA
ZA
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
% o
f res
pond
ents
% o
f res
pond
ents
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-6.8% -6.3%
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Colour coding indicates growth or declining trend – average Q1 ‘18 & Q2 ‘18 vs Q1 ‘17 & Q2 ‘17.
LOOKING THROUGH AFRICA AND MIDDLE EAST’S FMCG LENSFAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS MARKET DYNAMICS
Weighted average growth Q2 ‘18 vs year ago
WHERE ARE THE FMCG GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES?Average volume growth Q1 2018 and Q2 2018
Average volume growth decreasing versus last period
Average volume growth increasing versus last period
MOROCCO (-4.8%)
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES (-3.4%)SAUDI ARABIA (-9.0%)
NIGERIA (-0.3%)GHANA (+5.3%)
EGYPT (+6.8%)
KENYA (+0.5%)
SOUTH AFRICA (+1.3%)
-1.2%2.8% 2.8%-2.1%
12.2% 11.1%
5.9%
5.5% 5.3%4.3%
-4.8%
18.0%
-7.0% 0.7%
-0.2%
0.8%
0.8%
-0.8%3.6% 6.2%
9.9%
-0.6%
Q3 16
UNIT VALUE GROWTH VOLUME GROWTH NOMINAL GROWTH
Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18
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INTERESTED IN ADDITIONAL INSIGHTS?If you are interested in purchasing one or more of the regional quarter by numbers reports, please visit www.global.shopnielsen.com
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