Global Foresight – Impact Overview:

World Future Society Toronto Meeting

July 27 2012

Jack Smith,Telfer School of Management,

University of Ottawaand

TFCI Canada Inc.

2

Ultimate GoalUltimate GoalHigh and SustainableHigh and Sustainable

Quality of LifeQuality of Life

High income per capita Employment

opportunities Healthy and educated

population Clean environment Safe places to live and

work Economic security for all

citizens

BUILDING PROSPERITY by CREATING INNOVATION & EXPLOITING CAPITAL

ASSETS

Human Capital; SKILLS & IDEAS “Wetware “

(Educated & Healthy)

Innovation Capital“Software”

(Codified Knowledge & Technology)

Social Capital “Shareware”(Institutions & Voluntary ,Virtual

Organizations - Networks

Physical Capital“Hardware”

(Facilities & Buildings)

Natural Capital“Bioware”

(Natural Resources & Environment)

N

ew W

ealt

h C

reat

ion

5 Types of Capital Assets

Intergovernmental Relations International trade/treaties Federal/provincial/municipalFramework Policies Environmental standards Tax/regulatory/industrial

policy Fiscal/monetary management Social policyDelivery of Services Health/education/social

welfare Infrastructure, safety, security

Government Policy Role

Future Socio-economic Performance in the New-Next Emerging Economy

Foresight enables us to anticipate, develop & position our assets

Current Socio-EconomicPerformance re:

• Production Costs; • Job creation;• Trade balance

•Foreign investment•Technology transfer

• Productivity,• Growth

•Innovation

Trends in the Global Economy

Globalization Technological/ communications change Regional/global trade liberalization Internationalization of business World demographics Shifts in Canada’s “ RUBRIC” relations

Foresight Analytics for Innovation

• Technology Readiness & Capability Assessment (TRCA); First examine the technologies for state of readiness and your own capability to drive them to development by filling gaps, adding knowledge and skills etc;

• Prospective Applications & Opportunities Valuation (PAOP); application of foresight plus competitive intelligence-business analytics to determine best investments under uncertainty;

• Innovation System Enablers & Scaffolding (ISES) ; e.g. venture capital; IRAP ; concierge role – CERC and coaching; managing for growth - what systemic elements need to be assured>?

Macro Shaping Trends

1. Demographic, wealth shifts in West & world, BRICs-NICs – beyond boomers;2. Mechanization of Intelligence – ambient networks & toward Singularity;3. Global Anxiety – from Global Warming-Climate Change to Debt and Terrorism;4. Miniaturization, Automation (robotics) & Socialization of Technology;5. Globalization of Capital, Terror , Disease, Eco-Environment, Wealth Creation;6. Anti-globalization of Biodiversity, Culture, Sustainability, Wealth Distribution;7. De-Carbonization, Diversification of Energy Economy;8. Harmonization - Standardization for Trade ;9. Proliferation of Surveillance - Security in all domains;10. Urbanization Migration, Multi-Culturalism of Populations;11. Acceleration of Services as Economic Driver;12. Smartness Transformation of Infrastructure Systems;13. Intensification, Differentiation of Knowledge, Health & Wealth;14. Virtualization, Digitization & Integration of: Business-Professions, Production,

Communications, Entertainment, Education;15. Convergence in technology applications: bio-info-nano-design (BIND) + eco-

cogno/neuro capabilities- signalling new possibilities across multiple platforms16. Performance and impact – increased analytical focus on systemic interventions;

more interest in measurement, evidence in policy17. Add your own

Implications for Government Led Foresight

5

•More Governments (adopting, supporting, leading)

• Critical Success Factors

• Systemic Foresight with more methodological diversity

• Integrated Foresight - better alignment with Policy Cycle

• Measuring Foresight Impact

Global Foresight Overview - Asia

Nation Focus - Scale Recent Projects

Japan • Broad on a national scale: scenarios, Delphi, needs survey; green economy

• The 9th Japanese Foresight (NISTEP: www.nistep.go.jp);

Korea• 2 year national project ; 19 committees with

more than 100 experts & 5 K experts in Delphi; 652 technologies in 8 mega trends;

• Future of ICT using 10 Megatrends

• 2012: The 4th National Technology Foresight

• 2012-2013: The Future of ICT in 2025

Thailand

• APEC CTF – sustainable development, inclusive innovation; ASEAN Krabi Initiative;

• Agriculture Sector (national), • Cities Innovation (regional)

• Low carbon economy (APEC);• Thailand Agriculture Future Scenario;• ASEAN Cities Innovation System Foresight

Singapore• Foresight work in government enjoys high-

level support. • Centre for Strategic Futures acts as central

node - focus is on trends and drivers that will affect Singapore as whole;

• National Scenarios exercise every 3 – 5 yrs.• Ongoing project-Emerging Strategic Issues

project, to identify issues that have not yet surfaced as critical, but for which there is some evidence of future significant impact;

Malaysia• National R&D, technology priorities - 300

experts & stakeholders ;• Youth-national development 5K students• Development of national rail industry

• Malaysian National Foresight Institute & MIGHT National Technology Foresight

• Into The Mind of Youth• Future Rail 2030

Global Foresight Overview - Europe

Nation Focus - Scale Recent Projects

European Commission

• EFP is Trans-European + Americas over 200 foresight briefs registered to date – ending Sept 2012

• Preparation for FP 8 re 2020

• EFFLA (EC launched a platform for using Forward Looking Activities to advise the Commission)

• EFP – European Foresight Platform (a network of leading foresight institutions)

Austria

• Sector Foresight Projects &• AIT lead for EFP & INFU

(Innovation futures – emerging patterns – about 100+ experts; 5% from outside Europe)

• e.g. INFU is a consortium with Z_punkt + Fraunhofer ISI (Germany) and Strategic Design Scenarios (Belgium)

• Freight Vision Austria (Transport)

UK

• UK Foresight Office• The Home Office• DSTI – Horizone• EC Joint Projects ( I KNOW;

SANDERA)

Current UKFO projects• Future Disaster Anticipation and Resilience• The Future of Identity• The Future of Manufacturing• The Future of Computer Trading (Finance Markets)

Germany• National Foresight Projects

initiated by the Research Ministry (BMBF), e.g. FUTUR;

• Foresight Process of the BMBF (see http://www.bmbf.de/en/index.php) aims to support research and innovation policy; 2007-2009 for S&T) and Cycle II (just started): need-oriented

Global Foresight Overview - Other

Nation Focus - Scale Recent Projects

Brazil• National sector funds- Strategic Studies Institute

(CGEE) with Ministry for STI and decision boards of the Funds;

• CGEE & ABDI (Brazilian Agency for Industrial Development)

• CGEE-15 Brazilian Sector Funds – future scenarios and technologies;

• Critical technologies for 8 industrial sectors with the ABDI – le by CGEE

Russia

• The Higher School for Economics is the leader of Russian foresight

• STI- Emerging technologies Company / Industry• Foresight strategies and methods;

• HSE- Roadmap of S&T for Russia ;• HSE-Rusnano; 2009 -12 Nanotech roadmap;• HSE – sectors e.g. Aircraft frames & aviation

futures 2011-2012

Australia

• Economic and strategic –national positioning 2011-12. for the PMO-Cabinet Department

• Health system – 18 mo; 2011-2013 still active

• Australia in the Asian Century ;• Enabling Assistive Technologies for Healthy

Ageing for the Department of Industry, Innovation, Science, Research and Higher Education

Turkey

• Foresight methods – YeditepeUniversity; International Research Conference on Foresight and Futures;

• Corporate foresight analysis by Atilla Oner and Senem Gol Beser

• Health system - horizons for change

• YNT: YIRCoBS'12 - Economics and Management in Health Care Sector

• YIRCoF ’11 Theory Building in Foresight and Futures Studies;

• 2011 "Assessment of Corporate Foresight; case of a multinational company in Turkey", Foresight, Vol. 13 Issue: 2, pp.49 - 63

Measuring Foresight Impact

• 2009-2011 meetings of the Govt Foresight Leaders Forum – Hartwell House UKFO; OECD Paris; Policy Horizons Canada;

• Foresight Success Vignettes;• APEC Center for Technology Foresight – Bangkok

International Advisory Board;• Special Issue of Foresight Volume 14 #1 February

2012; Foresight Impacts Around The World;(incl: Ian Miles, Ron Johnston, NISTEP, Calof & Smith, Riel Miller, Michael Jackson & more

• September 2011: Foresight Impact Measurement Instrument TFCI Canada Inc.

A key recurring challenge has been how to demonstrate the value of foresight investments for government sponsors and stakeholders - who are mindful of accountability, value for government mandates and comparative cost-efficiency and cost-effectiveness with other prospective applications of limited government funds.

Foresight and Policy- a Symbiotic Relationship

Foresight is varied and has many distinct stakeholders – so we need multiple measures to assess performance and measure impacts; The TFCI – Telfer School instrument relies upon 7 groups:

1. Roles that foresight plays for business, government and academia;2. Benefits that can be realized by foresight sponsors, participants;3. Critical Success Factors – how well designed, planned, aligned wit

sponsors, clients knowledge opportunities etc.4. Meta Measures – e.g. degrees of learning, awareness, exposure to new

ideas etc.5. Pre-Policy Measures – how foresight provides direction, insights,

strategies for R&D, policy options- analysis;6. Policy Support Measures – ways that foresight provides ongoing

support for policies and their implementation;7. Post-Policy Actions, Communications , where foresight helps ensure

ongoing credibility, adaptiveness of policies.

Key Roles Perspective (R. Johnston)

Table 1. Foresight Value Roles & Clients

Key Role & Clients Impacted

PM,

Minister

Political Advisors

Senior Govt Executives

Govt Policy

Advisors

Public Opinion

Leaders 1. Awareness raising

Each stakeholder group will have different emphasis on each domain

2. Informing 3. Enabling 4. Influencing 5. Evaluating

Which roles are most important for your value proposition?Which roles are most important for your value proposition?

Benefits Perspective (Yuan et al)

Table 3. Foresight Benefits Perspective

Foresight Benefits Categories

Benefits Who Most?

1. Generating national strategy

From a government viewpoint, the benefits are quite widely distributed. The impact framework includes all of these measures, but in a manner aligned with the policy staging familiar to governments. Still, it is important to disaggregate benefits or impacts by distinct client or stakeholder group.

2. Prioritising resources 3. Changing existing institutions and building partnerships among

actors 4. Enhancing intelligence systems and stimulating the exchange of

information 5. Building early warning systems 6. Communication and coordination 7. Propelling societal learning processes 8. Knowledge management 9. Stimulating innovative policy making 10. Enhancing the environment for innovation 11. Impacting on organizational strategy 12. Impacting on new product –service development.

Critical Success Factors Perspective (1-4)

 Table 2. Government Foresight Critical Success Factors & Impact Context

Critical Success Factors

Context for Impact Analysis

Focus on a clearly identified client

Each client will have unique impact priorities - the framework presented in Table 4 broadly addresses the diversity

Establish a clear link between foresight and today’s policy agenda

The nature of the impact will depend upon the stage and emphasis of the policy agenda - the framework identifies four relevant stages, with measures unique to each stage.

Nurture direct links to senior policy-makers

Champions are the key element and to build political -organizational support - for which demonstrated impacts of various kinds will be essential.

Create strong public-private partnerships

There are a lot of choices for how one measures the effects of partnership- the framework explores several methods or measures.

Critical Success Factors Perspective (5-8)

 

Table 2. Government Foresight Critical Success Factors & Impact Context Develop and employ

methodologies and skills that are not always used in other departments

This "useful novelty" feature of foresight suggests the need for comparative impact measures as well - a theme also explored in the draft impact framework.

Ensure a clear communication strategy

Measuring impact through the assessment of how effective one's communications are, is clearly relevant to the larger issues of why and how foresight adds value through impacts.

Integrate stakeholders into foresight programs

Impact analysis should be two way- combining both effects on foresight operations from having stakeholders involved and impacts on them as well

Take advantage of or create a national-local academic receptor and training capacity.

Ultimately, impact involves extending influence and learning beyond those most directly affected, hence the relevance over an extended time period for having an academic and training dimension included

Building A Foresight Impact Measurement Framework 

Meta Measures

Learning & Education (L&E)

Foresight essentially is a learning process- each foresight project educates someone, and usually all participants.

e.g. Testimonials, anecdotes, resonant personal and institutional stories, evidence of new skills mastery, recognition of terms, stages and insights; calls for advice by leaders based upon past work; reputation for new insights-education.

Add your measures here

Training & Skills Development (T&S)

Foresight is often motivated by sponsors wanting to strengthen readiness , resilience and preparedness skills

e.g. Courses, seminars, training sessions attended; enhanced abilities and capabilities as described by stakeholders, clients, champions; certificates of proficiency, acceptance by professional societies such as the APF.

Strategic Directions (S&D)

Foresight is often initiated to provide guidance, to initiate change in direction, priorities etc.

e.g. Acceptance of new strategies by one's organization; assignments to strategic teams; evidence of foresight in adopted priorities; new direction with foresight derived origins.

Risk – Uncertainty Reduction (R&U)

Foresight is a key tool for risk assessment, and management of uncertainty.

e.g. Statements of risks linked to future uncertainties and the (foresight )process of determining levels of perceived risk and management approaches to these risks.

Design & Planning (D&P)

Foresight is closely aligned with design and planning

e.g. Recognition, evidence and examples of how foresight can or did provide resilience in the form of contingency design and planning for those aspects of design and planning which are inevitably uncertain.

Pre - Policy Developmental Measures

• Research & Development Priorities 2-4 2.85

• New Insights & Knowledge 2-5 3.30

• Adding Creativity, Invention & Imagination 1-5 3.58

• Contribute to Policy Research, Options-Analysis 1-5 3.40

• Educate Leaders on Foresight -Policy Issues 1-5 3.12

• Affect Attitudes & Beliefs 2-5 3.25

• Develop Connections & Networks 2-5 4.33

Policy Support Measures

• Stakeholder Engagement & Characterization

1-5 3.42

• Framing Policy Issues, Options & Decisions

1-5 3.36

• Validation & Legitimacy 2-5 3.41

• Advice for Policy Champions 2-4 3.32

• Change Factor Analysis 2-5 3.39

• Socio-Economic Threats & Opportunities

2-4.5 3.25

• Filter for Future Robustness 2-4 3.19

• Manage Complexity, Ambiguity & Horizontal Issues

2-5 3.83

(Post)Policy Implementation Measures

Communication Channels – Identification , Interface

1-5 3.09

Public and Professional Perception and Appreciation

2-5 2.92

Innovation, Integration and Implementation Dynamics

2-5 3.33

Infrastructure Alignment , Resilience

1-4 2.91

Organizational Development, Adaptation and Renewal

2-4 3.37

Media Attraction and Messaging

2-4 2.72

Appeal to Prospective Staff 3-4 3.11 Lens for Evaluation,

Assessment of other Tools 1-5 3.28

Highest & Lowest Impacts – 54 Measures

Top Five Impacts

# 38 Develop Connections & Networks 2-5 4.33 # 1 Awareness raising 1-5 4.27 #12 Integrate stakeholders into foresight programs

2-5 4.25

# 10 Develop and employ methodologies and skills that are not always used in other departments

1-5 4.15

#31 Seeding opportunity and innovation - creating strategic directions

1-5 3.87

Lowest Five Impacts

# 15 Prioritizing resources 1-5 2.43 # 6 Focus on a clearly identified client 1-4 2.58 # 52 Media Attraction and Messaging 2-4 2.72

# 8 Nurture direct links to senior policy-makers 1-4 2.73 # 27 Training & Skills Development 1-4 2.77