Global Feed Markets: May - June 2013

7/28/2019 Global Feed Markets: May - June 2013

1/9

Digital Re-print -May | June 2013

Global Feed Markets: May - June 2013

www.gfmt.co.uk

Grain & Feed Milling Technology is published six times a year by Perendale Publishers Ltd of the United Kingdom.All data is published in good faith, based on information received, and while every care is taken to prevent inaccuracies,the publishers accept no liability for any errors or omissions or for the consequences of action taken on the basis ofinformation published.Copyright 2013 Perendale Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any formor by any means without prior permission of the copyright owner. Printed by Perendale Publishers Ltd. ISSN: 1466-3872
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2/9
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3/9

GLOBALGRAIN & FEED MARKETS

Every issue GFMTs market analyst John Buckley reviewsworld trading conditions which are impacting the full range of

commodities used in food and feed production. His observationswill influence your decision-making.

So why have

prices which

are still relatively

high compared

with their past ten

or twenty year

averages stayed

more or less range-

bound rather than

collapsed since

these ample supply

outlooks were

touted in mid-May?

H

UGE, record crops of wheat, maize

and soyabean are on their way

according to the keenly awaited first

view of the new 2013/14 season fromthe US Department of Agriculture.

USDAs big supply numbers have surprised many

in the trade, implying more than enough of all

the major grain and feed raw materials to meet

considerable growth in world demand during the

year ahead.

Moreover, if USDA is right, the low coarse grain

and oilseed stocks that have characterized the

world market for the past season can be rebuilt

to more comfortable levels while already adequate

wheat stocks will also get a useful top-up.

So why have prices which are still relatively

high compared with their past ten or twenty year

averages stayed more or less range-bound rather

than collapsed since these ample supply outlooks

were touted in mid-May? The answer may be, give

it time and favourable weather.

Certainly at this early stage there are various

reasons to be cautious toward these bearish supply

numbers. Wheat output, for example, has been

forecast to rebound from last years disappointing

655.6m to 701m tonnes 21m more than the

International Grains Councils preliminary forecast

issued in late April and 6m more than the UN

Food & Agriculture Organization predicted two

days before the USDA forecasts.

Of the latters45.5m tonne global

year-on year increase,

a full 30m tonnes is

down to expected

wheat crop recoveries

in the former Soviet

Union, where yields

were devastated in

some regions last year

by prolonged drought

and heatwaves. Yet

Russian and Ukrainian

crops have had

numerous problems

during the winter and

spring from frosts to

lack of rain and it remains quite feasible that their

combined output could be over rated by USDA

by as much as 6m to 8m tonnes.

Some analysts also have their reservationstoward USDAs EU crop forecast of 138.8m

tonnes (+6.7m on year) amid too much rain in

northwestern member states and some heat and

dryness issues already being reported in some

eastern/southern countries. Australia (seen

+2.5m) has also had some problems with lack

of rain in key states and could yet end up with a

similar or smaller crop that last years.The USA

also continues to suffer problems with drought in

its key hard red winter wheat belt, normally the

largest source of wheat for this the worlds largest

exporter - although the USDAs 56m tonne total

US wheat crop forecast has probably already been

fully factored in by the market in recent months.

On the other hand, Canada and Argentina should

have bigger crops on larger sown areas while India

seems to be heading for at least its second largest

crop ever.

Even if world wheat output only rises by, say,

30m tonnes, the concentration of extra supplies in

exporting countries suggests a more competitive

market ahead in the search for import custom.

Wheat trade may decline slightly in 2013/14 due to

bigger domestic crops in some importing countries

like Turkey and Morocco and swing importers of

feedwheat turning back to more abundant maize.

New crop forecasts keep on growing

Gri&fd milliG tcholoG52 | may - June 2013


4/9

COMMODITIES

World consumption of wheat is seen 20m

tonnes higher next season but increases will be

concentrated within big producing countries especially Europe, India and Russia. Overall,

world stocks are still expected to increase by

about 6m tonnes to 186m, equal to about

26.8% of consumption or 14 weeks supply a

far looser ratio than that expected for maize,

for which both USDA and the futures markets

forecast prices far lower than those of wheat

in the season ahead (an anomaly that will

probably be resolved by wheat prices falling

ra ther than

those of maize

rising).Despite the

better supply

outlook, as we go to press CBOT wheat

futures are showing price premiums on the

forward months ranging up to 7% more for

March 2014. The price situation is reversed

in Europe, however, where new crop bread

wheat prices are shown about 14% cheaper

than spot delivery on the Paris milling wheat

futures market. London feedwheat futures

which have actually been running close to

parity with better quality French milling wheat

on some positions look rather over-priced,

especially given the discounts being quoted

on new crop wheat and maize from the Black

Sea region.

Gri&fd milliG tcholoG may - June 2013 | 53

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5/9

16.5% of consumption or just over 8-weeks

supply.

Among the other coarse grains, consumers

are promised a better balanced barley market

if crops increase as expected by 8m to a total

138m tonnes, mainly in Russia (up almost

4m and the EU (plus 1m). Although barley

starting stocks for the new season will be

lower, a limited increase in demand (mainly

within Russia) is expected to allow these to

recover somewhat during 2013/14. Along with

the bigger competing supplies of wheat and

maize this should held keep prices down for

feed barley users.

Sorghum supplies are also seen substantially

higher in 2013/14 plus about 5m, largely

due to much bigger sowings in the USA.

Although a lot of this will go to its domestic

feed consumption, there will be more available

for export too.

A big jump in world soyabean output in thecoming season is expected to result in much

cheaper prices for oilmeal proteins across

the board. This year has already seen record

crops in South America, where production

has increased by 32m tonnes or almost 29%.

The new season is expected to see more

beans sown in the USA which could also

produce its biggest ever crop. USDAs first

forecast is 92.3m tonnes up 10m on the

year, if normal weather allows trend yields.

USDA also expects Brazil and Argentina to

keep increasing output, resulting in worldproduction increasing by another 16.4m

tonnes. This would put world supply in surplus

for two successive seasons and, on current

estimates, add about 20m tonnes to the stock

carried over from one season to the next

also a record level.

Currently, USDA is forecasting new seasons

US producer prices of soyabeans will average in

a range of $9.50/10.50 per bushel the mean

being about 26.5% below the average for the

past season. Soya meal ex-US crushing mill is

seen averaging in a range of $280/320 per

short tonne (2,000 lb), the mean representing

a drop of 29% on the current season. The

Chicago soya meal futures market also sees

prices dropping by about 26% from current

levels by the end of the year.

next year . It

may wel l be

too pessimist ic,

bearing in mind

t h a t U S D A

forecast Brazils

2012/13 crop

at 67m and has

now raised that

to 76m (whereas

Brazils government and at least one private

estimate suggests 78m tonnes.

Consumption of maize is expected to

increase in 2013/14 by almost 73m tonnes

of which 31.4m will be within the US itself

as the feed and ethanol industries (+23.5m

and 6.4m tonnes usage respectively) respond

to much looser supplies and much cheaper

prices. USDA forecasts a seasonal ex-farm

price range of $4.30 /5.10 per bushel compared

with this seasons $6.70/7.15, the median pointdown by almost 32% (new crop Chicago maize

futures suggest

pr ices about

25% cheaper

than current old

crop deliveries).

Following the

pattern of recent

years, the next

biggest increase

in global maize

consumption is

expected within

China where

demand goes up

by 17m tonnes,

mainly in its feed industry to a new record

224m.

Other country increases in maize use are

mainly one million tonnes or less.

European maize consumption is not

expected to rise because of the bigger wheat

crop taking more feed demand. This situation

should also allow Europe to reduce maize

imports from this seasons record 10.5m to

7m tonnes. A bigger

Mexican crop will alsoreduce that countrys

import needs by 1m

tonnes but USDA

still expects overall

world maize trade

to increase by about

4m tonnes as China

increases imports

by that amount and

some other maize

importers, largely in Asia, avail themselves of

cheaper export supplies.

The bottom line for maize if USDAs crop

estimates hold good is for substantial surplus ,

pushing US seasonal ending stocks back to

a nine-year high of 50.9m tonnes and world

carryover to a 13-year peak of 154.6m about

One concern, especially for the UK, remains

the adequacy of quality wheat supplies . If this

years UK crop drops again as feared after a

tough winter (USDA says 13% down at 11.55m

but some in the trade have been talking 20%

losses) then clearly more imports will be

needed.

How costly that may be depends on

European and other crop weather in coming

weeks and months. If Germany and France get

enough sunshine to generate good proteins,Hagbergs etc in their wheat and if Canadian

and Australian crops perform as planned, this

need not necessarily add up to soaring bread

prices ahead.

For maize, USDA has taken a fairly

optimistic view of US 2013 crop prospects

which it puts at 359m tonnes, near the top

end of the range within which most trade

forecasts fall (340 /360m with a few 370 out-

rider s). Some caution is required for this

figure as rains and cold weather have put

sowing weeks behind normal across the US

Corn Belt . That may result in some designated

maize land being sown to soybeans instead

and it may also if these delays continue into

June s tar t to have a s ignif icant impact in

lower yield potential. No-one wants to take

a 360m tonne or higher crop for granted after

what happened last year when drought cut

over 100m tonnes off USDAs early 376m

tonnes prediction.

The US forecast accounts for no less

than 78.5% of USDAs foreseen increase in

global production (+109m to a new record

966m tonnes). The remaining increases are

mainly down to the EU crop recovering by

7.1m tonnes, CIS crops up by a combined

7m tonnes, Chinas rising 4m and Serbias by

3.5m tonnes. Interestingly, USDA has Brazils

crop retreating from this years record 76m

to 72m tonnes the only major decline. This

supposes more Brazilian emphasis on soybeans



6/9

COMMODITIES

food supply (rice as well as grains and oilseeds)

and stubbornly weak crude oil and metal

prices ensuing from macro-economic issues

including sluggish economic growth in the US,

China and the Euro zone. That all suggests

lower raw material costs on the way, especially

for the feed industry.

KEY FACTORS AHEAD

WHEAT

Those big Black Sea crop estimates are

looking more likely by the week, implying a

surge in export competition during the next

few months. It is hard not to see this helping

to bring down wheat prices on world and

EU markets.

US crop. Much of that

extra demand for US

soya came from the

to p impor te r Chi na

although this pressure is

slackening as, like other

buyers, it star ts to focus

instead on cheaper new

crop offers.

Soya will get cheaper

as the year rolls on,

demanding prices of

other less-valuable oilmeals like rape and

sunflower meal follow suit.

This glowing picture for forward supply

must of course be hedged with the obvious

caveat. It is only May as this review goes to

press and the weather could yet spoil things

by the time northern hemisphere wheat and

barley is harvested in Jun, July and August and

maize and soybeans from late August onward.However, at this stage, the outside

interests that have helped exaggerate price

strength in recent years dont appear to be

interested in weather risk and seem to be

taking USDAs vaunted season of plenty at

face value. Hedge funds, pension funds, banks

and other investors are also reported to be

taking a fairly negative view of commodities

in general amid the better outlook for world

World oilseed production is also expected

to get a top up from larger sunflower and

rapeseed crops, adding about 5.5m tonnes

more to total supplies and expanding total

world oilseed carryover stocks to a record

82.6m tonnes. The EU should see a modest

uptick in its rapeseed crop but may be able

to avail itself of more impor ts from larger

crops in Ukraine, Russia and Australia. The

CIS countries also expect a big hike in their

sunflower seed crops.

Soya markets have actually been stronger

over the past two months for several reasons .

Brazils harvest has been delayed by weather

and transport/port infrastructure problems

handling record crops, not only of soybeas

but of maize and sugarcane too. Argentine

suppliers have also been slower to move

thei r crop than the markets expected due

to high inf lation encouraging hoarding and a

poor exchange rate reducing the real incomefrom expor ts sold in dollars. Although South

American exports of both beans and meal

have now begun to pick up, the earlier delays

drive a lot of unexpected import demand to

US shores and the resultant strong exports

of both beans and meal resulted in crushers

and shippers competing for a supply that

had already fallen short of expectations

after last years somewhat disappointing

Gri&fd milliG tcholoG may - June 2013 | 55

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Plent y of sunny days are now needed to

bring late European, US, Canadian and

CIS crops on and good harvest weather

to main ta in breadmak ing qual it y. There

are some qualms about late sowing of

spring wheat in the USA one of the

major sources of these high qual i ty

breadwheats. However, Canada, a much

larger supplier, does now seem to be

getting its sowing done under adequate

moisture conditions on a much larger area

and will probably have one of its largest

crops ever. Australia with it s important

prime hard wheat production is also

getting some much needed rains to plant

after some nail-biting dry days in recent

weeks.

India faces storage problems as another near

record crop nears with warehouses already

overflowing. The solution to drop export

price ambitions rather than watch quality spoilunder open storage could mean downward

pressure on world wheat export prices

just as the traditional cheap seller s the CIS

countries - gear up to sell their large crops

abroad

World wheat trade might be depressed by

larger than usual crops in Morocco, Turkey,

Egypt and other North African/Middle

eastern countries. Also, Iran now seems

to have completed a massive s tockbuilding

programme and may import 5m tonnes less

next season. This is all likely to weigh fur ther

on prices.

The extent to which wheat use in feeds is

reduced if maize crops recover as planned.

That also depends on price. Wheat cannot

possibly sustain the big price premiums

over maize signaled on the forward CBOT

futures markets and still compete with

maize in feeds either in the US or in

global markets.

MAIZE Will the US manage to plant all its planned

area on time to avoid ceding land to later-

sown soybeans or some yield penalty?

Current pointers suggest it could fall 1m to1.5m acres short . Yet all the moisture holding

up sowing of the last 25% is a wonderful

star t for the young crop, an early pointer to

bumper yields.

Will US farmers get a normal summer? The

first , possibly most important hurdle is mild/

warm rather than hot weather during the

key pollination period. With later sowings,

the reproductive phase may be a few weeks

later in many areas, deeper into the period of

summer heat risk.

Delayed marketing of Latin American maize

crops means these will be competing with

the US into the latters new season, star ting

September 1 later than usual.

CIS countries have a much larger maize crop

on the way and will be cheap sellers. Whatever

crop the US ends up with, there will be less

need for US maize exports than usual.

India may continue to contribute more to

world export supplies of maize

If Europes own maize crop rebounds as

expected, import requirements will decline

US corn consumption for ethanol is forecast

higher in 2013/14 but that can be comfortably

accommodated if the forecast US crop comes

through. US maize ethanol use may also be

restrained by larger imports of cheap ethanol

from a record Brazilian sugarcane crop

China continues manage its constantly

growing feed demand with larger crops of

its own but it is expected to impor t more

in 2013/14. It has been buying recently and

larger than expected amounts going in this

direction could make US markets frisk y as

purchases are anounced

Speculators enthusiasm to buy into any crop

weather problems. This is becoming less ofa factor as the big crop numbers mentioned

above start to look attainable while the

managed money' community becomes

increasingly disillusioned with diminishing

returns from commodity investments in

general from gold to oil. As we go to press

the regular report of US fund investments in

the top 11 commodity futures markets there

shows a 15% drop to its lowest level in six

weeks.

OILMEALS/PROTEINS Will the US get its soyabean crop planted

on time and may it pick up some extra

acreage from delayed maize planting? If

it does, soya prices will be under further

downward pressure into the last quarter

of 2013

Planting and growing weather in the USA. A

later sown crop has plenty of moisture at this

stage. It looks likely to be a big one

South Americas delayed marketing of record

crops means more competition well into the

USAs peak, post-harvest marketing period.

That suggests more downward pressure on

soya costs.

Chinese demand for soya meal is expectedto grow be low it s long term tr end in

2013/14 but its demand for beans could

rocket as its domestic crop continues to

shrink. It remains far and away the largest

destination for US and global soyabean

exports

Final EU/CI S rapeseed & sunflower seed

and Canadian canola plantings - and their

crop weather. After a delayed start,

Canadas rapeseed crop could go either

way while Australias may decline after

rapid growth in recent years. The EUs

crop may be slightly bigger. At the end of

the day, though, rapeseed, sun seed and

other oilmeal costs will have to follow

market leader soyas probable downward

path.

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