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Grain & Feed Milling Technology is published six times a year by Perendale Publishers Ltd of the United Kingdom.All data is published in good faith, based on information received, and while every care is taken to prevent inaccuracies, the publishers accept no liability for any errors or omissions or for the consequences of action taken on the basis of information published. ©Copyright 2010 Perendale Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form or by any means without prior permission of the copyright owner. Printed by Perendale Publishers Ltd. ISSN: 1466-3872

Digital Re-print - January | February 2012 Global Feed Markets: January - February 2012

www.gfmt.co.uk

GLOBAL GRAIN & FEED MARKETS

Every issue GFMT’s market analyst John Buckley reviews world trading conditions which are impacting the full range of

commodities used in food and feed production. His observations will inf luence your decision-making.

Although not

directly affected by

the South American

drought threat,

wheat joined the

end-year rally in

soyabeans and

maize, even rising

faster than the

latter as funds

who got into the

habit of selling this

surplus market

were forced to buy

back some of these

positions. There

was also much talk

of wheat’s value as

a feedgrain rising

if Latin American

weather did cut

supplies and drive

up prices of maize.

Grain and feed commodities started 2012 on a stronger note as a prolonged hot, dry spell over the Latin American grain belt sparked fears of major crop losses

from this key exporting region. Some analysts drew comparisons with 2008/09 when similar weather chopped more than 17% - 14m tonnes of maize and 20m tonnes of soyabeans off South American production, squeezing world supplies and prolonging the descent from that season’s record world grain and oilseed prices. That season, drought also coincided with a short US maize crop (down 24m tonnes) but was offset by a record wheat harvest which gave consumers choice and helped stop prices running completely out of control – also similar to the current season.

In the event, things don’t look anything like as bad 2008/09 as this issue goes to press in late January. Although Argentine weather might yet turn dry again, a series of rain events in January has favoured most of the drought-stressed areas and temperatures have cooled. Relief may have come a bit too late to put back all the lost yield potential for maize trying to pollinate during the December heat-waves but it has almost certainly stemmed losses at far lower levels than the pessimists feared.

That was underlined in mid-January when the USDA’s monthly world forecasts trimmed just 3m tonnes from Argentina’s maize crop estimate and left Brazil’s unchanged. USDA also lopped just 1m tonnes from Brazilian and 1.5m from Argentine soya crop estimates. In fairness, most market analysts see these estimates (which still suggest record or near-record crops) as a bit too generous. However, they are probably nearer the likely outcome than some of the earlier dire forecasts.

In fact, in its second bearish global forecast in as many months, the USDA calculated far looser supplies overall, including rises rather than expected cuts for US 2011 maize and soyabean crops, lower US wheat and soyabean use, higher US wheat and maize stocks as well as those far higher than expected Latin American crop estimates. Higher Ukrainian, EU and Russian production also left world maize output and stocks

slightly higher than in the previous month and 40m more than last year’s.

That said, coarse grain supplies will be lighter than the trade hoped last autumn, in a season in which the US maize crop has again fallen short of target (314m rather than the initially forecast 330/335mnnes).

On the plus side for supply, record maize production and exports are coming out of eastern Europe, chiefly Ukraine, which has been happy to slash its prices to establish itself as a serious challenger to the US and Argentina. Along with the huge global supply of competitively priced feed-wheat, this has considerably dulled the impact of smaller than expected American maize crops.

So has a slower trend in world demand for maize. In the largest consuming country, the USA, maize offtake has actually fallen by about 1.8% as corn ethanol growth has flat-lined while feed use has dropped. This is quite a contrast to recent seasons when ethanol use was growing in leaps and bounds.

Global demand for corn is still up overall by 25m tonnes (the lion’s share of growth in China, Brazil and India). However, that’s nowhere near the 40m tonne expansion seen in 2009/10.

Even so, US/global maize stocks remain at their tightest level in relation to consumption for decades - less than eight weeks’ supply cover. A bigger world crop will be vital this summer/autumn, even to meet a continued slower rate of demand growth. That means markets will remain highly sensitive to any US, European or former Soviet country weather problems in the months ahead and the level of spring plantings in these countries too.

So far, the auspices are encouraging. Pundits are looking for a rise of 3% or more in US planted area for maize which, with a return from last year’s (low) to normal yields - about 160 bu/acre - could result in a crop increase to 350/360m tonnes. That would more than take care of demand growth, the shortfall currently foreseen for South American maize crops – and still leave some over to start rebuilding low stocks.

Ukraine, which lost a lot of its winter-sown wheat and barley, maybe 20-30%, to drought, intends to plant much of this land up to maize instead. It makes

Latam jitters stall price drop- but wheat supplies keep rising

Grain&feed millinG technoloGy34 | January - february 2012

GFMT12.01.indd 34 02/02/2012 10:14

COMMODITIES

sense. This season’s Ukrainian maize exports are expected to rocket from a normal 5m to a record 12m tonnes. With maize selling at $6 instead of the usual $4 to $5/bushel (sometimes considerably less) this grain should bring in a lot more foreign exchange than Ukraine’s often low-grade wheat exports. Europe also saw a huge rebound in its maize crop this season to a record 64.3m tonnes from less than 56m in 2010. This has not only boosted domestic use and exports but will add some to seasonal ending stocks too.

These are the main reasons why the ‘tight’ US maize futures market is currently forecasting prices will be 7.5% cheaper at end-2012 – returning to a 17% discount to wheat after

months of highly unusual maize/wheat premiums.

As we expected in earlier issues, the world wheat crop has been consistently under-rated in recent months, largely due to better than expected harvests in the former Soviet Union. The main CIS or ‘Black Sea’ producers’ output is now estimated to have rebounded from last season’s drought/heat-wave-reduced 81m tonnes to 114m. This is expected to allow regional exports of 35m tonnes compared with less than 14m last season. Only a few months ago, some trade pundits were rubbishing ideas that sales would come anywhere near the 25/30m tonnes vaunted by other analysts. Heavy exports from

these countries have been the biggest factor bringing down world and European wheat prices in 2011.

Although this ‘front-loaded’ export campaign appears to be slowing now – and CIS grain prices slowly rising – this season also has bigger exports from good crops in Canada, Argentina and (despite a lot of weather damaged grain this year) Australia. So, while world wheat import trade is seen about 5.5m tonnes higher this season than last, the buzzword for many months has been competition. This, rather than any strictures on supply, is the main reason why US and EU exports are currently expected to drop by about

Grain&feed millinG technoloGy January - february 2012 | 35

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The exhibition features technological meetings and seminars promoted

by the industry’s representative trade associations

Technologies for packaging, processing and industr ia l logistics, the three pillars of IPACK-IMA 2012, all have a high degree of automation as their common characteristic. The upcoming edition of the exhibition on schedule from February 28th to March 3rd at Fiera Milano will host over 200 exhibitors active in the industry of automation systems and components. 215 companies representing a sector capable of creating strong synergies with the ten exhibition areas and nine business communities of IPACK-IMA, thus attracting

the interest of the vast majority of professionals visiting the event. The increase in ef f iciency, p roduc t i v i t y and s a f e t y s t andards for mach iner y and equipment is largely the result of innovations brought about by manufacturers of automat ion systems. The latest advances showcased at IPACK-IMA go hand in hand with technical meetings

organized by major trade associations. A N I E ( t h e F e d e r a t i o n representing the electro-technica l and e lec tronic companies in Italy) will hold a seminar intended for all industry profess iona l s , des igners , manufacturers and assemblers titled “Electrical Cabinet for Human Interfaces Machines: design, application and energy efficiency”. The meetings (on schedule for Friday March 2nd) will discuss requirements and features of in-field control panels and will provide an outline of the main national and international regulations, the materials employed according to different uses as well as specific applications and the legislation connected to them.Another prestigious association

that has chosen IPACK-IMA 2012 as the venue to meet the specialist public is ANIPLA (Italian Automation Association) with a meeting focused on next-generation t e chno log y t o improve ef f iciency and productivity ( scheduled for Thursday March 1st): “Automation in the Packaging: from innovation to Efficiency”.L as t l y, t he ob jec t i ve o f increasingly comprehensive, w ide l y a cce p t ed g l ob a l standards will be discussed during a specific meeting on Friday March 2nd organized by PLCopen, a global association of manufacturers and vendors of automation systems aiming at becoming global leader in the regulation of automation control systems.

Efficiency, productivity and safety increase through the use of automation systems- As many as 215 automation companies to exhibit at IPACK-IMA- As many as 215 automation companies to exhibit at IPACK-IMA

News January - February 2012 NEWS

Grain&feed millinG technoloGy January - february 2012 | 11

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Against that, Ukraine might lose 25-30% of its winter wheat crop. Assuming more of this land went to maize than spring wheat that could mean 5m or 6m less wheat next summer from this source, However, even from this year’s bumper crop, Ukraine is only expected to raise exports from 4m to 7m tonnes – not the biggest factor in the current highly competitive export market.

More important may be whether Russia, Kazakhstan and European countries manage to repeat last year’s good yields and whether the US, Canada (which plans to raise are by 12% !) and Australia get the right weather for plenty of good milling quality wheat.

The current supply/demand situation for these grades looks better than a few months ago, when US Dark Northern Spring wheat for export from the Gulf was trading fob terms at $420/430 per tonne (hitting a high of $579 in the summer). The January 2012 cost has fallen to a 13-month low of $366/tonne.

Whether or not the world gets a 700m or 650m tonne wheat crop for the coming season, it will also start with massive carryover stocks from this year, equal to 16 weeks’ consumption. If the crop does reach the upper end of forecasts, a burdensome wheat supply may have to be priced lower to raise its share of the feed ration – unless of course, maize crops in the Americas or elsewhere do run into serious problems.

EU wheat prices as reflected on the Paris futures market dropped from a high of �209/tonne in early January to �194 a week later, then back to the �208 again recently. It seems remarkable that the European markets are trading so high against the wheat supply backdrop. Back in December, for example, EU March milling wheat could have been bought for just �179.75/tonne. London feed wheat futures at the same time were around £140.50/tonne but have recently breached £168.50. Moreover, feed demand in the UK has been unusually slow for the time of year with compounders reportedly intent on making sales than wheat and other commodities.

However, markets here are largely following the US response to Argentine weather/crop reports with the other eye on Euro-zone issues and their effect on the single currency’s value versus the dollar. More volatility is likely ahead as these issues are resolved (or not) although some analysts are looking for a possible further slide in EU soft milling markets into 2012 due to the ongoing weight of export competition and the possibility this will lead to end-season wheat stocks turning out larger than expected.

Russia’s aggressive early season export campaign – a key factor in setting low world and EU wheat prices - appears to be easing now as most of the freely available quality grain gets used up and its domestic and export prices rise.

nagging Euro-Zone debt crisis lurches on without real resolution but maybe with a little less impact from the markets. Financial pundits continue to warn of potentially severe repercussions for global economic growth and thus on demand for food, feed and fuel commodities. It has been a big restraint on grain and oilseed bulls but markets seem to have grown tired of listening to this story. A steep drop in demand for ocean freight and lower shipping costs for grain also suggests something is slowing down. Yet the total export trade estimates for the major grains and oilseeds in 2011/12 (ends June 30 for wheat, Sep 30 for coarse grains) remain relatively robust.

Meanwhile, the speculators who played such a large part in record grain and oilseed prices over the last two or three years are still there but a less strident force, having not got the profits they expected last year for investments in wheat and soyabean futures at least. We can expect some banks and hedge funds to continue trying to talk prices back up at the first hint of a weather problem, especially for maize with its record low stock/use ratios. But aside of the Argentine drought factor, 2012 does not at this stage look like a promising year for the funds to gamble again on price rises.

Main commodity highlights since our last reviewWill wheat prices drop back?

Although not directly affected by the South American drought threat, wheat joined the end-year rally in soyabeans and maize, even rising faster than the latter as funds who got into the habit of selling this surplus market were forced to buy back some of these positions. There was also much talk of wheat’s value as a feedgrain rising if Latin American weather did cut supplies and drive up prices of maize.

European wheat prices had to follow the US/world trend in first half January with added support from the weak Euro which dropped to 15-month lows against the US$ at one point. This could boost EU export sales prospects although there has been little sign of any incoming trade bonanza yet amid still plentiful supplies from North and South America, Australia and CIS countries.

The USDA’s US wheat planting estimates were also bearish (up 3% on last year’s) larger than expected and focused on hard red winter wheat (+6%), the mainstay of US exports and a top indicator of world bread wheat value. If US spring wheat plantings went up by the same amount and national average wheat yields returned to the 2010 level (46.3bu/acre), the crop would be closer to 60m than last year’s 54.4m.

one third this season and why prices in both markets were 20% cheaper in January 2012 than this time last year .

That trend may continue. World consumption of wheat may be up by 27.5m tonnes or 4% this season but production is growing faster, so stocks will rise. In fact, the current USDA forecast (for June 30 2012) is for a world carryover of 210m tonnes – 31% of consumption needs (about 16 weeks supply). Some analysts even put them higher than the all-time record 211m of 1999/2000.

At the same time, the International Grains Council is forecasting world wheat sowings 1.7% higher for 2011/12 crops. If yields hold steady, that could deliver the first world crop in excess of 700m tonnes.

Steady yields might be a tall order for some countries. Last year’s world average wheat yield was a record 3.1 tonnes/hectare (+7%) eclipsing a slight decline in sowings. This winter, East European and US crops have dryness issues that could work against maximum potential. The EU has also been short-changed on rains in some south/eastern member states. Nonetheless, there is an overall impression of ‘generally favourable’ conditions around the main northern hemisphere wheat belt. Indeed, some countries, especially Australia, Germany, Canada and the Ukraine, might also expect a bit more luck with grain quality – i.e. better summer growing/harvest weather after two years of unusually challenging conditions.

This combination – big crop, huge stocks, bigger sowings, questions why the Chicago futures complex should be forecasting wheat prices 11.5% higher at the end of 2012 than they are now. Consumers will rightly question the reliability of this futures ‘price revelation’, given that this time last year, Chicago wheat was forecasting $8.55/bushel for end-2011 compared with the actual price with which the year end of of $6.45¼. Chicago futures ‘price discovery’ was just as wrong on maize. A year ago it saw a 10% drop in prices over 2011. Despite a 40m tonne (5%) recovery in world output, values actually rose 15% amid the US crop shortfall and China’s return as a major importer.

While still on the futures markets, we might also question why, if maize is the main factor holding wheat up as most trade analysts accept, wheat should be forecasting a 17% premium over the coarse grain by the end of 2012? Shouldn’t it be the other way around?

As well as the ‘fundamentals’ (supply/demand issues) above, grain and feed markets continue to keep an eye on ‘macro-economic factors that might influence physical demand, speculative activity etc. Over the least few months these factors have been broadly bearish for prices. The

Grain&feed millinG technoloGy36 | January - february 2012

GFMT12.01.indd 36 02/02/2012 10:14

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still running over 3% up on the year despite the removal on January 1 of government blending subsidies and import tariff protection. Although earlier excpected to show no growth this season, US ethanol use of maize is being supported by strong exports caused by lack of competition from Brazilian ethanol after a short sugarcane crop there. That said, US ethanol stocks are climbing each week, implying demand is lagging supply, so things may yet slow down as we move further into 2012.

The USDA recently raised its world 2011/12 maize crop forecast to 868m tonnes – 41m more than last year. That’s about level with consumption, which grew by 25m tonnes. Assuming the main factors in demand growth – China and Brazil – grow at the same pace next year, the world crop will need to advance by at least that much to defend already tight stocks against further, unacceptable erosion of the pipeline supply. Between them, the US and China might just pull that off but will Europe and Ukraine get the same favourable weather that boosted last year’s yields? Clearly there is no room for complacency over forward maize prices yet.

KEY FACTORS IN THE MONTHS AHEAD• The final impact of drought on Argentine and

Brazilian maize crops• China’s maize ‘deficit’ may be smaller than

the bulls thought a year ago but is probably growing – so imports may rise beyond this season’s forecast 4m tonnes – a potentially bullish factor.

• US spring planting weather, the timing and size of increase in actual sowings

• ditto Ukraine• Global economic problems continue to erode

consumer confidence but has the potential impact on meat, feed and grain demand been exaggerated?

• Speculative activity in commodities – they could be drawn to maize by the tight balance – especially at US spring planting time if the weather plays foul

Oilmeal supplies look adequateIn the protein sector, the Latin American

drought has trimmed estimates for global soyabean supply in 2011/12 and pushed US prices of soyabeans by 10%, soya meal by about 16% from the lows since our last issue. However, the effect on overall oilseed supplies has been offset by a series of upward revisions for 2011 crops of sunflowerseed, rapeseed and

groundnuts. Also, by drawing down soyabean stocks, crushers will keep 2011/12 soya meal supplies up (about 3.7% over the previous season). Globally, protein meal supply will also increase by about 3.4%, easily keeping pace with growth of consumption.

If the Latin American crops come through with modest drought losses, prices will be under no obvious upward pressure. The next landmark after that will be US sowing weather in April and May. Early estimates see crop area up or down slightly but the timing of maize sowings may shift plans.

This time last year, Chicago futures were seen 4% lower by end 2012 but despite peaking twice in the $1,450’s (February and August), the near month hit a low of $1,100 in mid-December amid heavy export competition from last year’s record South American crops.

Along with a slightly higher crop estimate from the USDA, lower US crush and export projections, the US soyabean supply situation looks fairly comfortable with projected ending stocks of 7.5m tonnes - a five-year high. Soya has also been restrained by reports that the largest, fastest-growing importer, China took less in 2011 than 2010 - its first annual drop in seven years. But at this stage, the USDA still sees its total 2011/12 (Sep/Aug) soyabean imports rising by 8%.

Big sunflower supplies from the CIS countries should mean more coming into European crush to replace short rapeseed oil supplies. That suggests there will be more sunflower meal on the market as the by-product, at competitive prices. The trade will be keenly watching European/CIS spring sunflower sowing for clues to whether this bonanza will continue, especially with uncertainty over the impact of weather in timing and size of this year’s EU winter plantings. Overseas, Canada expects to sow a record rapeseed crop but big consumer India has had some weather challenges with its own rapeseed crop.

Overall, the oilseed sector should be adequately supplied if Latam crops pull through. The Chicago futures markets currently suggest soya prices will stay flat through 2012 which suggests confidence in supplies. Other oilmeals usually take their cue from soya, So this is fairly promising for restrained protein meal costs as a whole.

KEY FACTORS IN THE MONTHS AHEAD • South American crop weather• Chinese consumption and timing of imports• US planting progress/acreage sown this spring• EU/CIS rapeseed plantings - up or down for

2012?

Recently there has been talk of it using export taxes after March to conserve domestic stocks although many analysts have played this down as a bullish factor. By then it will have cleared at least 20m tonnes, as markets expected. Also Ukraine and Kazakhstan still have more wheat to sell although Ukraine is not expected to have so much good quality breadwheat while Kazakhstan may need better prices to draw grain from its interior, where most of it now lies, to export ports. However, the US, Canada, Argentina and Australia are likely to remain in the export frame for a while yet.

If these countries get normal weather for their 2012 crops, it would not be surprising to see world and EU wheat prices lower at the end of 2012 than they are now.

KEY FACTORS IN THE MONTHS AHEAD• The weather once North American, European

and CIS winter-sown crops break dormancy – yields nearly always influence swings in crop sizes as much or more than shifts in sown acreage.

• Will the USA yet pull a reasonable 2012 winter wheat crop out of a challenging dry autumn/early winter period & will farmedrs there plant more spring wheat too?

• A bit of an upturn in import demand for wheat has some analysts looking for another year of string world trade

• Don’t forget India’s plans for another record crop. Some of this could move onto world markets

• Above all, wheat is likely to take much of its price-direction from maize, especially if the latter crop falls short.

Coarse grains – a need to rebuild maize stocks

Maize prices nudged $8/bushel last June as traders worried about a US crop shortfall amid rising Chinese demand. The crop did disappoint and China did import a lot (though nowhere near as much as the bulls predicted) but prices still dropped by 25% in second-half 2011 – thanks to large crops elsewhere.

However, US and global maize balances look tighter on paper than that price decline might suggest. Those wafer thin stock/use ratios offer a potential flashpoint if the Latin American crops go lower than we expect or the US runs into any planting weather problems.

Cheaper maize has also helped to prop up US ethanol demand at higher than expected levels –

Grain&feed millinG technoloGy38 | January - february 2012

GFMT12.01.indd 38 02/02/2012 10:14

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January - February 2012

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