Global Environmental Issues

Molly Kile, ScDENVRE-115

Fall 2010

Announcements

• Assignment #2 due Sept 30

• Teaching Assistants– Ricardo: in class– Junenette: on line

• Grades will be returned to you via your drop box

• Schedule a midterm review for October 14 after class

• Questions on the book report ?– “Creating a World Without Poverty” Muhammad Yunus– “The End of Poverty: Economic Possibilities for Our Time” Jeffrey D. Sachs– “Plan B 2.0: Rescuing a Planet under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble” Lester

R. Brown – “The Sustainable Company” Chris Laszlo– “How to Change the World: Social Entrepreneurs and the Power of New Ideas,

Updated Edition” David Bornstein

Graduate Student Project

• Individual assignment– A funding proposal that will address resource

use that is related to a real-world development issue

– Identify your topic and get the permission of either Dr Jalal or Kile by Oct 21

– Instructions posted on websitehttp://isites.harvard.edu/icb/icb.do?keyword=k72216&pageid=icb.page382521

Agenda For Today

• Ecological footprint

• Global environmental assessment

• Environmental Impact Assessments

• Linking development to environmental quality (Kuznet’s curve)

Ecological Footprint

• Do you believe the ecological footprint is a useful metric of sustainability?

• What is it actually measuring?

Ecological Footprint ResultsQuestion 5 If everyone lived like you, how many planets would we need?A. 1B. 2C. 3D. 4E. 5F. 6G. more than 6

Total

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

   G.    F.    E.    D.    C.    B. A.

This means it takes 36 more months for the Earth’s ecosystems to regenerate what we are using in a single year.

# 1   United Arab Emirates15.99 

# 2   United States12.22 

# 3   Kuwait10.31 

# 4   Denmark 9.88 

# 5   New Zealand 9.54 

# 6   Ireland 9.43 

# 7   Australia 8.49 

# 8   Finland 8.45 

# 9   Canada 7.66 

# 10   Sweden 7.53 

# 131   Angola 0.82 

# 131   Togo 0.82 

# 133   Guinea-Bissau 0.8 

# 134   Bhutan 0.79 

# 135   Haiti 0.78 

# 136   Mozambique 0.76 

# 137   Chad 0.75 

# 137   Burundi 0.75 

# 139   Sierra Leone 0.73 

# 140   Namibia 0.66 

# 141   Bangladesh 0.6 

www.NationMaster.comSOURCE: World Wide Fund For Nature (WWF), Living Planet Report 2000

Global Human Footprint

For how long can this go on?• Humanity’s demand will be twice the biosphere’s productive

capacity in 2050• A moderate business-as-usual scenario, based on United Nations

projections of slow, steady growth of economies and populations

What is causing ecosystem change?

• Direct Driver- influences ecosystem processes– Habitat change– Over-exploitation– Invasive alien species– Pollution– Climate change

• Indirect Driver-collectively these drivers influence the level of production & consumption of ecosystem services– Population changes– Economic activities– Socio-political/Governmental factors– Cultural factors– Technological changes

Humanity’s Ecological Footprint

• We appropriate ⅓-½ of global ecosystem production for human consumption

• We have converted over half the ice-free, desert-free land surface to croplands or pasture

• We use roughly half the planet’s accessible fresh water

• Net loss of half the temperate and tropical forests on the planet

• Three quarters of monitored fisheries are fished at, or beyond, sustainable limits

• 60% of the world’s rivers are affected by 45,000 large dams and 800,000 smaller dams

• Species extinctions roughly 1,000 times natural rate

• Humans have changed ecosystems more rapidly and extensively in the last 50 years than in any other period

• More than 60% of major ecosystem services are in decline

• Changes are accelerating

• The harmful effects of degradation are being borne disproportionately by the poor—a recurring theme.

• Substantial and largely irreversible loss in diversity of life on Earth, with some 10 to 30 % of the mammal, bird and amphibian species currently threatened with extinction

• “any progress achieved in addressing the MDGs of poverty and hunger eradication, improved health, and environmental sustainability is unlikely to be sustained if most of the ecosystem services on which humanity relies continue to be degraded.”

http://www.greenfacts.org/en/ecosystems/index.htm

http://www.maweb.org/en/index.aspx

Excellent resources:

Scientists suspect we have entered a time of global change swifter than any human being has ever witnessed. Where are we headed? What can we do to alter this course of events?

The vast majority of scientists agree that

global warming is real, it’s already happening and that it is the result

of our activities and not a natural

occurrence. The evidence is

overwhelming and undeniable.

A Civilization in Trouble and Exciting New Options

Not every collapse has an

environmental origin, but an

eco-meltdown is often the main

catalyst.

2 billion malnourished

1 billion overweight

Source: Sam Myers

• More land was converted to cropland in the 30 years after 1950 than in the 150 years between 1700 and 1850.

• More than half of all the synthetic nitrogen fertilizers, first made in 1913, ever used on the planet has been used since 1985.

Nitrogen Cycle

We have:

• Approximately doubled the rate of nitrogen input into the terrestrial nitrogen cycle; with rates still increasing

• Increased concentrations of the potent greenhouse gas N2O globally, as well as increased concentrations of other oxides of nitrogen that drive the formation of photochemical smog

• Caused losses of soil nutrients, such as calcium and potassium, essential for the long-term maintenance of soil fertility

• Contributed to the acidification of soils, streams, and lakes in several regions

• Greatly increased the transfer of nitrogen through rivers to estuaries and coastal oceans.

Vitouseket al. 1997

Sources of mineral fertilizers?

Haber-Bosch Process (1908-10): industrial “fixation”of atmospheric nitrogen to form

ammonia

What was the Green Revolution?

Dwarf varieties

• No increase in growth rate, photosynthesis, germination speed...– allows greater seed yield without

lodging (falling over); so can take advantage of high levels of inorganic fertilizers

– greater “harvest index”-ratio of harvested grain to total biomass produced (wheat in 1935 ~.35, in modern varieties up to .55)

Estimated inorganic nitrogen deposition from nitrate and

ammonium, 1998

Disruption of the phosphorous cycle in

Mississippi due to fertilizer run-off

SOURCE: USGS

Loss of wetlands and restructuring wetlands in Louisiana removes natural

nutrient filtration

Gulf of Mexico "Dead Zone“Hypoxic Zone – depleted oxygen

Impacts of Hypoxic Zone• Reduce food resources for fish and shrimp • Reduced abundance of fish and shrimp • Decline in shrimp catch and catch efficiency• Loss of production potential due to the blocked

migration of juvenile shrimp offshore by the presence of hypoxic zone

• Increased abundance of Pseudo-nitschia diatoms (several species produce domoic acid)

• Mississippi Watershed is a slow timescale– will take decades to reach a sustainable nitrogen & phosphorous cycle

Diaz & Solow, 1999

Marine Hypoxic Zones

Sources: Boesch 2002, Caddy 2000, Diaz and others (in press), Green and Short 2003, Rabalais 2002

• Altering the structure of an ecosystem (habitats or species) can influence the services provided by a particular ecosystem

Alter Structure, Alter Function

Fisheries

Agriculture

Nitrogen & Phosphorous cycle

Balancing Development and Environmental Impacts

“To say that infrastructure development has impact is to state the obvious. No industrial country has advanced to such status without developing solid infrastructure facilities. And no low-income country has managed to escape poverty in the absence of infrastructure.

In addition to economic growth, infrastructure development has a very tangible impact on people's daily lives, and especially on the lives of poor people ”

- Liqun JinVice President, ADB

Infrastructure development Economic Growth

• Poverty reduction and economic development depend on sustained growth

• Growth depends on productive activities supported by roads, railways, seaports and airports, power generation and transmission and other infrastructure services

Improve Infrastructure Decrease Poverty

Predicated on two assumptions:1. Infrastructure development is managed well

and in a cost-effective manner so as to reduce constraints to economic activities by lowering the cost of doing business and creating job opportunities

2. Direct revenue generation from infrastructure projects are allocated to improving human capital (education, health, and other vital social services)

• Well-designed and well-managed infrastructure investment allows a government to broaden the horizons and raises the intellectual capital of the society as a whole

– Mobilizes resources which stimulates• financial sector development• institutional capacity building• human resources development• legal and regulatory buildup

Improve Infrastructure Build Capacity

What is an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)?

• “an important procedure for ensuring that the likely effects of new development on the environment are fully understood and taken into account before the development is allowed to go ahead”

(DETR and National Assembly for Wales, 1999)

Origins and History of EIA

In United States

• US National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) of 1970

• Requires federal agencies to consider environmental impacts of their proposed actions and reasonable alternatives to those actions

• Goals of NEPA– Each generation is a trustee of the historical, cultural, and

natural environment for succeeding generations– Assure a safe, healthful, productive, and aesthetically and

culturally pleasing surroundings for all Americans– Attain the widest range of beneficial uses of the environment

without degradation, risk to health or safety, or other undesirable and unintended consequences

– Enhance the quality of renewable resources

Origins and history of EIA

In Europe

• In 1977 the European Commission began drafting a directive on EIA and finally published a proposal in 1980

• Directive 85/337/EEC on the assessment of the effects of certain public and private projects on the environment – the ‘EIA Directive’ was adopted in July 1985 and Member States had until 3 July 1988 to implement its requirements

• European Commission’s web pages on environmental assessment http://europa.eu.int/comm/environment/eia/home.htm

International Banks• World Bank requires EIAs as of 1989

– Apply to any Bank-financed or implemented projects• Natural environment• Human health and safety• Social aspects (involuntary resettlement, indigenous

peoples, and physical cultural resources)• Transboundary and global environmental aspects

– Designed to be used as a tool to improve project performance and sustainability

• Asian Development Bank requires environmental assessments– http://www.adb.org/Projects/reports.asp?

key=reps&val=ERD

Guiding Principles of EIA

EIA “ a systematic processof identifying futureconsequences of a currentor proposed action”

Transparency

Certainty

Participation

Practicality

Feasibility

Cost-effective

CredibilityAccountability

8 Guiding Principles

A. Project Concept/Identification

• Initial stage of the project planning

– Basic nature of the project is known including the site(s) where the project is being proposed to be implemented

– “Screen” project to determine if project requires a full EIA

Screening

Project

Environmentalimpact

Economicimpact

Socialimpact

• Identify environmental issues of concern• Determine whether EIA is needed• Establish need for project

Not requireEIA

RequireEIA

Impactsunclear

Threshold criteria Impact criteria• Size • Location • Output • Cost/Finances• Environmental effects • etc.

• Significant but easily identifiable impacts

• Significant impacts • Sensitive area

Methods for Scoping

B. Pre-feasibility Stage

Making a plan for public involvement

Identifying major issues of public concern

Establishing priorities for environmental assessment

Developing a strategy for addressing priorities

Evaluating the significance of issues

Distribution of information to interested parties

“Scope” the project to identify issues/impacts for investigation

C. Feasibility Stage

Conduct the EIA and determine if the project is viable

• Magnitude of impact - indicate whether the impact is irreversible or, reversible and estimated potential rate of recovery

• Extent of impact - spatial extent of impacts should be determined

• Duration of Impact - arising at different phases of the project cycle and the length of the impact [e.g. short term (during construction-9 yrs), medium term (10-20 yrs), long term (20+ yrs)]

D. Implement & Audit the Project

The EIA is a "reference" guide during implementation

• Outlines mitigation strategies and monitoring schemes

Preventative measures - reduce potential adverse impacts before occurrence

Compensatory measures - compensate for unavoidable adverse impacts

Corrective measures - reduces the adverse impact to an acceptable level

• Recommendations can be incorporated into contracts

• Audit project after completion to identify lessons learned

E. Environmental Monitoring

• Environmental monitoring provides feedback about the actual environmental impacts of a project

• Helps judge the success of mitigation measures in protecting the environment

• Ensure compliance with environmental standards

• Facilitate any needed project design or operational changes

Benefits FlawsProvides systematic methods of impact

assessmentTime-consuming

Estimates the cost/benefit trade-off of alternative actions

Costly

Facilitates the public participation Little public participation in actual implementation

Provides an effective mechanism for • coordination• environmental integration• negotiations• feed back

Unavailability for reliable data (mostly in developing countries)

Top-level decision making Too focused on scientific analysis (sometimes)

Triggers an institutional building Poor presentation of EIA report (bulky volumes, scientific explanation, difficult to understand)

Achieve a balance between the impact of developmental and environmental concern

Compliance monitoring after EIA is seldom carried out

Project Cycle

Source: ADB, 1997

Word of caution … EIAs cannot

• Decide which alternative to chose

• Prevent environmental impacts from happening

• Guarantee decisions you like

• Prohibit any actions

• Cumulative effects of multiple projects

Environmental Kuznet’s Curve

Kuznets Curve

• Kuznets curve illustrates the relationship between economic development and environmental degradation

• World Bank’s World Development Report 1992 (IBRD, 1992) argued that:

– “The view that greater economic activity inevitably hurts the environment is based on static assumptions about technology, tastes and environmental investments”

– “As incomes rise, the demand for improvements in environmental quality will increase, as will the resources available for investment”

Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2002Vol (1): 147–168

Climate change and human health: risks and responsesEds. A.J. McMichael et al. World Health Organization, Geneva 2003

Limitations of Kuznets Curve

• Assumption that environmental damage is reversible

• Quantitative analyses are cross-sectional

• Likely capturing a dynamic process

• Globalization promotes a ‘race to the bottom’

What we can learn from history…

Shattered the assumption that the environment has an infinite capacity to

absorb pollutants

1962

Environmental Transition

Level of Development

Le

vel o

f E

nvi

ron

me

nta

l Pre

ssu

re

Pollution control

Process changes andefficiency increases

Structural economicchanges anddematerialization ofconsumption patterns

Developing countries Developed countries

Malthusians vs Cornucopians

Human population growth, if unchecked,

increases in a geometrical ratio and

the subsistence of man increases in an

arithmetic ratio

Human population growth is the incentive to develop new technology that will lead to development that diminishes population pressures

Cornucopian Paradigm

• Human capital is best investment

• We can solve any problem

• Progress happens because of economic growth which will eventually raise the standard of living for all people

• Benign transitions will happen as people decide to have fewer children

Malthusian (Ecological) Paradigm

• Human population size is ultimately limited by food supply and/or other factors such as disease

• Food supply is increased by additional capital, which in turn, requires more resources

• There are natural limits for essential resource that will ultimately constrain human economics

• Transitions will not be benign

The Precautionary Principle

• Asserts there is a 'premium' on a cautious and conservative approach to human interventions in the natural environment where our understanding of the likely consequences is limited and there are threats of serious or irreversible damage to natural systems and processes.

Myers 1993 in Barbier, Burgess and Folke 1994, p.172.

What makes it global?Local Commons

• Urbanization• Water supply and sanitation• Human health

Regional Commons• Airsheds• Watersheds• Land and forests• Industrialization• Transportation corridors• Agriculture and other land

usesGlobal Commons

• Oceans• Atmospheres• Minerals and materials• Climate• Globalization of trade and commerce• Global social and political institutions• Epidemics

In Summary

• Consumption patterns drive the size of one’s ecological footprint

• 60% of the Earth’s ecosystems are degraded

• Alter the structure of an ecosystem and you can alter its function

• Environmental kuznet’s curves suggest that as economic development increases environmental quality can improve assuming the ecosystem services remain functional

• Philosophical musings of Malthusians and Cornucopians… need for sustainable development practices

Key Concepts

• Ecological footprint• Green revolution• Environmental Kuznet’s Curve• Environmental Impact Assessment• Malthusian• Cornucopian• Common property