Global Environment System Research Lab. NIMR/KMAGlobal Environment System Research Lab. NIMR/KMA...
Transcript of Global Environment System Research Lab. NIMR/KMAGlobal Environment System Research Lab. NIMR/KMA...
Risk and Management of current and future Storm Surges
13 -17 September, 2010
Hamburg
»STORM SURGES CONGRESS 2010«
Sung Hyup YouGlobal Environment System Research Lab.
NIMR/KMA
High Resolution Regional and Coastal Operational Tide/Storm Surge
Forecasting System in Korea
High Resolution Regional and Coastal Operational Tide/Storm Surge
Forecasting System in Korea
Risk and Management of current and future Storm Surges
13 -17 September, 2010
Hamburg
Occurrence Frequency of Typhoon
»STORM SURGES CONGRESS 2010«
MonthCase
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 total
A 25 13 22 44 63 102 226 332 291 224 146 71 1559
K 0 0 0 0 2 13 54 66 47 5 0 0 187
1954‐2009
A : Typhoon occurred in Northwestern Pacific OceanK : Typhoon effected on the Korean Peninsula
Risk and Management of current and future Storm Surges
13 -17 September, 2010
Hamburg
Typhoon Damages
»STORM SURGES CONGRESS 2010«
Mean Sea Level
Tidal Elevation
Movement by Wind
DAM
Storm Surges
Risk and Management of current and future Storm Surges
13 -17 September, 2010
Hamburg
Typhoon Damages
»STORM SURGES CONGRESS 2010«
Risk and Management of current and future Storm Surges
13 -17 September, 2010
Hamburg
Operational Ocean Forecasting System
»STORM SURGES CONGRESS 2010«
RDAPS, KWRFSea Surface Wind & MSLP
Regional Wave Model (RWW3, 1/12°)
Regional Storm Surge Model(RTSM, 1/12°)
Coastal RegionSea Surface Wind Model
Tide Coeff. DB
Coastal Storm Surge Model(CTSM, 1/120°)
Coastal Wave Model(CWW3, 1/120°)
Tide Model
Bathymetry DBBathymetry DB
Logical Depth DB
Risk and Management of current and future Storm Surges
13 -17 September, 2010
Hamburg
RDAPS vs. KWRF
»STORM SURGES CONGRESS 2010«
RDAPS(Regional Data Assimilation Prediction System)
KWRF(Korea Weather Research and Forecast)
Risk and Management of current and future Storm Surges
13 -17 September, 2010
Hamburg
RDAPS vs. KWRF
»STORM SURGES CONGRESS 2010«
RDAPS KWRF
Model MM5 WRF
Horizontal Resolution 30 km 10 km
Dimension 171 x 191 574 x 514
Time Steps 75 s 60 s
Forecast Time 12 hr FDDA + 78 hr 60 hr
Initial/Boundary Conditions GDAPS GDAPS
Vertical Layers 33 / 50 hPa (model top) 40 / 50 hPa (model top)
Explicit Moisture
Mixed Phase
(Water Vapor, cloud, Rain, Ice, Snow)
WSM6
(WRF Single-Moment 6-Class)
Cumulus scheme Kain-Fritch New Kain-Fritsch scheme
PBL scheme MRF scheme YSU scheme
Ground Temp 5-layer Soil Model Noah LSM (4-layer)
Radiation scheme Cloud RadiationRRTM (longwave) / Dudhia
scheme(shortwave)
Risk and Management of current and future Storm Surges
13 -17 September, 2010
Hamburg
Sea Winds Verification
»STORM SURGES CONGRESS 2010«
• Domain : 115°E~150°E, 20°N~52°N
• Comparison between QuikSCAT Data & RDAPS model data
Sea Surface WindVerification Area
QuikSCAT 24hEarth Coverage
Risk and Management of current and future Storm Surges
13 -17 September, 2010
Hamburg
Sea Winds Vector
RDAPS QuikSCAT
Summer
Winter
Risk and Management of current and future Storm Surges
13 -17 September, 2010
Hamburg
RTSM (Regional Tide/Storm Surge Model)
CRAY X1E
2-D POM model 1/12°Regional Storm Surge ModelConsidering tide, sea wind, pressureCalculating the height of Tidal elevation and storm surgeoperating from June 2006
NIMR/KMA Global Environmental System Research Lab.
Risk and Management of current and future Storm Surges
13 -17 September, 2010
Hamburg
RTSM (Regional Tide/Storm Surge Model)
CRAY X1E
2-D POM model 1/12°Regional Storm Surge ModelConsidering tide, sea wind, pressureCalculating the height of Tidal elevation and storm surgeoperating from June 2006
NIMR/KMA Global Environmental System Research Lab.
Risk and Management of current and future Storm Surges
13 -17 September, 2010
Hamburg
RTSM (Regional Tide/Storm Surge Model)
»STORM SURGES CONGRESS 2010«
RTSM(Reginal Tide/Storm surge Model)
Model 2-D Ocean Circulation Model(POM 2D)
Coordinate System Spherical Coordinate
Model Domain 115 °E-150 °E20 °N-52 °N
Horizontal Resolution 1/12 ° by 1/12 °(421 ×385)
ΔT 200 sec
Prediction Time 48 H (00,12UTC)
Initial Field hot start
Input Data RDAPS Sea Wind and Pressure 8 tidal constituents
Risk and Management of current and future Storm Surges
13 -17 September, 2010
Hamburg
RTSM (Regional Tide/Storm Surge Model)
»STORM SURGES CONGRESS 2010«
RTSM(Reginal Tide/Storm surge Model)
Model 2-D Ocean Circulation Model(POM 2D)
Coordinate System Spherical Coordinate
Model Domain 115 °E-150 °E20 °N-52 °N
Horizontal Resolution 1/12 ° by 1/12 °(421 ×385)
ΔT 200 sec
Prediction Time 48 H (00,12UTC)
Initial Field hot start
Input Data RDAPS Sea Wind and Pressure 8 tidal constituents
00 UTC 12 UTC
48 H FCST 48 H FCST
48H FCST 48H FCST
12 H FCST – Initial First Guess
3 Hr Intv Wind, Pressure 3 Hr Intv Wind , Pressure
RDAPSKWRF
RDAPSKWRF
RTSM RTSM
Risk and Management of current and future Storm Surges
13 -17 September, 2010
Hamburg
Storm Surge Forecasting
»STORM SURGES CONGRESS 2010«
Typhoon USAGI (2007)
Risk and Management of current and future Storm Surges
13 -17 September, 2010
Hamburg
Storm Surge/Tide Forecasting
Risk and Management of current and future Storm Surges
13 -17 September, 2010
Hamburg
Storm Surge/Tide Forecasting
Risk and Management of current and future Storm Surges
13 -17 September, 2010
Hamburg
Model Verification
»STORM SURGES CONGRESS 2010«
Western coast Southern coast Eastern coastIncheon
Gunsan
Mokpo
Masan
Jeju
Wando
Busan
Mukho
Uleung
o Obs, - Mod
Risk and Management of current and future Storm Surges
13 -17 September, 2010
Hamburg
Model Verification
»STORM SURGES CONGRESS 2010«
Western coast Southern coast Eastern coastIncheon
Gunsan
Mokpo
Masan
Jeju
Wando
Busan
Mukho
Uleung
o Obs, - Mod
Risk and Management of current and future Storm Surges
13 -17 September, 2010
Hamburg
Model Verification
»STORM SURGES CONGRESS 2010«
SHANSHAN (0613) MANYI (0704) USAGI (0705) NARI (0711)
MATSA (0509) NABI (0514) KHANUN (0515) EWINIAR (0603) WUKONG (0610)
Risk and Management of current and future Storm Surges
13 -17 September, 2010
Hamburg
Model Verification
»STORM SURGES CONGRESS 2010«
MATSA (0509) NABI (0514) KHANUN (0515) EWINIAR(0603) WUKONG (0610)
BIAS (cm) 3.54 -6.14 -12.06 6.92 0.79
RMSE (cm) 7.72 11.41 14.61 12.00 9.07
SHAN HAN (0613) MANYI (0704) USAGI (0705) NARI (0711) Avg.
BIAS (cm) -1.76 4.69 3.34 -7.99 3.86 (+)/- 6.99 (-)
RMSE (cm) 8.63 8.95 6.78 12.19 10.15
2005 2006 2007
Bias
RMSE
Risk and Management of current and future Storm Surges
13 -17 September, 2010
Hamburg
CTSM (Costal Tide/Storm surges Model)
»STORM SURGES CONGRESS 2010«
Model2-D Ocean Circulation Model
(POM 2D)
Coordinate System
Spherical Coordinate
Model Domain 6 coastal areas
Horizontal Resolution
1/120 ° by 1/120 °(361 ×241)
ΔT 60 sec
Input DataE,U,V from Regional Model
RDAPS Wind and Pressure
Regional Model
B.C.
Risk and Management of current and future Storm Surges
13 -17 September, 2010
Hamburg
CTSM (Costal Tide/Storm surges Model)
»STORM SURGES CONGRESS 2010«
Coastal Model (1km Resolution)
Regional Model (8km)
Boundary Condition
Risk and Management of current and future Storm Surges
13 -17 September, 2010
Hamburg
Typhoon Cases
»STORM SURGES CONGRESS 2010«
USAGI (0705) KALMAEGI (0807)
Risk and Management of current and future Storm Surges
13 -17 September, 2010
Hamburg
Typhoon Usagi (0705)
»STORM SURGES CONGRESS 2010«
RDAPS KWRF
Sea Winds
Risk and Management of current and future Storm Surges
13 -17 September, 2010
Hamburg
Typhoon Usagi (0705)
»STORM SURGES CONGRESS 2010«
RDAPS KWRF
Mean Sea Level Pressure
Risk and Management of current and future Storm Surges
13 -17 September, 2010
Hamburg
Typhoon Usagi (0705) - RTSM
»STORM SURGES CONGRESS 2010«
RDAPS KWRF
Storm Surge
Risk and Management of current and future Storm Surges
13 -17 September, 2010
Hamburg
Typhoon Usagi (0705) - CTSM
»STORM SURGES CONGRESS 2010«
RDAPS KWRF
Risk and Management of current and future Storm Surges
13 -17 September, 2010
Hamburg
Typhoon Usagi (0705)
»STORM SURGES CONGRESS 2010«
Risk and Management of current and future Storm Surges
13 -17 September, 2010
Hamburg
Typhoon Kalmaegi(0807)-RTSM
»STORM SURGES CONGRESS 2010«
RDAPS KWRF
Storm Surge
Risk and Management of current and future Storm Surges
13 -17 September, 2010
Hamburg
Typhoon Kalmaegi(0807)-CTSM
»STORM SURGES CONGRESS 2010«
RDAPS KWRF
Risk and Management of current and future Storm Surges
13 -17 September, 2010
Hamburg
Typhoon Kalmaegi(0807)
»STORM SURGES CONGRESS 2010«
Risk and Management of current and future Storm Surges
13 -17 September, 2010
Hamburg
New Operational NWP model (2010)
»STORM SURGES CONGRESS 2010«
UM-Regional• 12Km 38 L• 72 hour forecast• Twice daily (00/12UTC)
Disaster (2012)• 1.5km 70 L• 3DVAR• 12 hour forecast
UM-Global• 40Km 50L• 4DVAR• 252 hour forecast• Twice daily (00/12UTC)
CRAY Baker90,240 cores682.9 TFlops
Risk and Management of current and future Storm Surges
13 -17 September, 2010
Hamburg
»STORM SURGES CONGRESS 2010«