Global energy: today and tomorrow · IEA estimates show that global energy-related CO 2emissions...
Transcript of Global energy: today and tomorrow · IEA estimates show that global energy-related CO 2emissions...
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Global energy: today and tomorrow
Dr. Fatih BirolExecutive Director, International Energy Agency
IEA
The Hague, 26 March 2018
© OECD/IEA 2018
Tipping the energy world off its axis
• Four large-scale upheavals in global energy are underway:
- The United States is turning into the undisputed global leader for oil & gas
- Solar PV is on track to be the cheapest source of new electricity in many countries
- China’s new drive to “make the skies blue again” is recasting its role in energy
- The future is electrifying, spurred by cooling, electric vehicles & digitalisation
• There are many possible pathways ahead & many potential pitfallsif governments or industry misread the signs of change
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United States becomes undisputed leader of oil & gas production
The United States is already switching to become a net exporter of gas & becomes a net exporterof oil in the 2020s, helped also by the demand-side impact of fuel efficiency & fuel switching
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1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
mboe/d Shale oilShale gasOther unconventionalsConventional oil & gas
Oil & gas production in the United States
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Strong outlook as LNG ushers in a new global gas order
Growing gas import requirements in developing Asia, Japan & Korea are largely met by LNG,with exports from the United States & Australia accelerating a shift to a flexible, liquid global market
706 bcm in 2016
Gas exportersGas importers
39% shipped by LNG
1 230 bcm in 2040
59% shipped by LNG
AustraliaRussia& Caspian
MiddleEast
Other
Africa
US &Canada
AustraliaRussia& Caspian
MiddleEast Other
AfricaUnited States& Canada
Asia37%
Europe52%
Other
Asia60%
Europe35%
Other
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The cost of wind & solar PV have fallen sharply, with further reductions expected;cost-optimal integration requires interconnections, flexible generation, storage & demand response
Wind & solar PV average costs
Wind & solar costs being driven down by competition
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2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
USD 2016/MWh
Offshore windSolar PVOnshore wind
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A new leader emerging on nuclear
Without additional lifetime extensions, the largest nuclear fleets face significant declines, while China is soon set to overtake the United States as the global leader
Nuclear power generation capacity
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2010 2020 2030 2040
GW
United States
China
France
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The future is electrifying
India adds the equivalent of today’s European Union to its electricity generation by 2040, while China adds the equivalent of today’s United States
Electricity generation by selected region
Middle East
2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000
Africa
Southeast Asia
European Union
India
United States
China
TWh2016 Growth to 2040
Japan
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IEA estimates show that global energy-related CO2 emissions reached a historic high in 2017, telling us that current efforts to combat climate change are far from sufficient
CO2 energy-related emissions
After three years of plateau, global emissions increase again
CO2 emissionsIncrease 2016-17
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20102011
20122013
20142015
20162017
Gt CO2
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Emissions increased in most major economies, But the United States, United Kingdom, Mexico and Japan were notable exceptions
Change in energy-related CO2 emissions by region, 2016-2017
Emissions growth was not universal
Mt CO2
Change in CO2emissions
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0
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China Other Developing Asia
European Union
United States
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Conclusions
• The oil & gas boom in the United States is shaking up the established order, with major implications for markets, trade flows, investment & energy security
• The versatility of natural gas means that it is well placed to grow, but it cannot afford price spikes or uncertainty over methane leaks
• China continues to shape global trends, but in new ways as its “energy revolution” drives cost reductions for a wide range of clean energy technologies
• Action to address climate change can be fully fully compatible with global goals on universal access & air quality
• Electrification & digitalisation are the future for many parts of the global energy system, creating new opportunities but also risks that policy makers have to address
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Modernising the IEA: three pillars
• Making the IEA a truly global agency
- Mexico became 30th member country in February 2018
- Since 2015, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Morocco, Singapore & Thailand
have all become Associate members
- Extended IEA family now accounts for over 70% of the world’s total energy consumption, up from
less than 40% two years ago
• Strengthening & broadening the commitment to energy security
• Enhancing the focus on energy efficiency & clean energy technologies
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