Global electronic-materials-supply-chain
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Transcript of Global electronic-materials-supply-chain
www.linx-consulting.com 617.273.8837• 973.698.2331
1
SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Changes Within the Global Electronic Materials Supply Chain and Challenges for
the Future
www.linx-consulting.com 617.273.8837• 973.698.2331
2
SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Linx Consulting
1. We create knowledge and develop unique insights at the intersection of electronic thin film processes and the chemicals industry
2. We help our clients to succeed through our:• Experience in global electronics and advanced materials and
thin film processing industries:
• Experience in the global chemicals industry• Experience at Device Producers• Experience at OEMs• Global network and capabilities• Advanced modeling capabilities
– Semi– LCD
– Packaging– PV
– Nano Technology
– Other
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3
SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Another Below-trend Year for Global Growth
-4
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% C
ha
ng
e
Forecast
Long-term Trend
World Real GDP Growth
Relative to 2012: slightly weaker in US; mild recession in Eurozone continues; slightly stronger in Asia, with positive spillovers to other emerging economies
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4
SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Q1 2013 Semiconductor Forecast
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
2,800
3,200
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
SEMI MSIForecast
Shaded areas indicate US recessions
Annual Percent Change2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-17.6 39.7 -3.5 -0.1 5.4 9.6 6.5
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SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Changing Market Drivers
• Desktop PC market slowed and has matured• Laptop PC market growing , but at a lower rate
• Chipsets for smartphones and tablets are analogous• High growth as penetration increases
The Growth of Mobile
Source: Qualcomm, IDC
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SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Segment Trends
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SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
The Major Challenges For ICs
3D Packaging
450mm
Gate Architecture
EUV
New Memory
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8
SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Long Range Device Mix Forecast
Total 300 and 450mm wafers
3D P
acka
ging
?
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SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Is Moore’s Law Broken?
• Current process technology diverges from the historic cost per bit curve as multipatterning and process complexity increase.
• EUV reduces this divergence by reducing litho complexity and saving some patterning cost
• Combining EUV with 450mm allows the cost per bit to stay on trend.
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10
SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Lithography Drivers
• The introduction of Immersion 193nm scanners was the last major wavelength improvement
• Off-axis illumination, phase shift masking, assist features, etc have extended lithography capability
• Self Aligned Double Patterning, multi-layer resists, multi-patterning, and source mask optimization have extended process capability significantly
• Given current trends EUV may provide a significant capability increase after 2015
• Indications are that NXE 3300B shipments will commence in 2013 with sources enabling 70 wafers per hour at customers in mid-2014
Difficult
“Easy”
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11
SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
EUV Wafer Cost Effect
• Cost in $/cm2 for a 300mm foundry logic process in a Taiwan foundry.
• First year of implementation EUV is used for most critical layers. Beginning year 3 older EUV systems used in “mix and match” strategy totally eliminating all multi-patterning.
• In 2016 added cost of late implementation could amount $8.5Bn of 110k w/mo.
Source: Strategic Cost Model - revision 1109
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12
SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
300mm Fabs Only
R&D
Other
MPU
Flash
DRAM
ASIC
R&D
Other
MPU
Flash
DRAM
ASIC
Fab Requirement
300mmR&D = 5k wpmOther = 25k wpmFlash = 100k wpmMPU = 30k wpmDRAM = 60k wpmASIC = 30k wpm
450mmR&D = 7.5k wpmOther = 37.5k wpmFlash = 150k wpmMPU = 45k wpmDRAM = 90k wpmASIC = 45k wpm
Source: 300 & 450mm Forecast Model 1201
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
300mm and 450mm
R&D
Other
MPU
Flash
DRAM
ASIC
R&D
Other
MPU
Flash
DRAM
ASIC
Series13
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SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Electronic Materials, 2012
0
20
40
60
80
100%
% total electronic materials
% total category ($Bn)
Semi
Photomasks
CSP
Spec. gases
Bulk gases
Deposition
CMPPR ancillariesPhotoresist
Wafers
LCD
OtherLiquid crystals
LMF
Chemicals
MetalizationResists
Gases
Substrates
Packaging
Gases & ChemsDie attach & underfill
Encapsulants
Ceramic package
Plastic Subs.
Frames & Wires
PCB
Substrates
Patterning
Metalization
Chems &Gases
Solders
Other
Electrolytes
Cathodes/anodes
Solar
Wafers
MetalsSaw wire
Slurry
Pastes
ChemicalsGases
EncapsulantsBacksheets
Glass substrates
Packaging
Other
Gases
Dep.
Substrates
Total = 122.8
Adv Batt
Separators
Compound/LED
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SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Electronic Segment Drivers
Device Segment Semi FPD PV HBLED
Driver • Memory requirements
• BOPS• Portable
electronics
• Human interface
• Touch panel• Viewing angle
• Environmental• Lower cost /
Wp
• Environmental• Lower cost per lumen
Key technologies • Lithography• MGuFET• Novel Materials• PCRAM /
RRAM / CT
• IPS• PVA• MVA
• Materials• Processes• Designs• Cost
• MOCVD for nitride film growth
• Phosphors• Encapsulants• Thermal management
Materials Segment Commodities Specialties
Driver • Large volume• Consistency• Cost
• Low volume• High service requirements• Proprietary products
• not easily substituted• Purchased for performance• Profit margins are higher
Key technologies • High volume manufacturing • Proprietary formulations• Synthesis• Applications expertise
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SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Materials Intensity by Market
$300Bn$Bn Semiconductors has the lowest materials intensity, but requires a high R&D input in comparison to comparable electronic device segments.
Materials requirements includes substrates, and packaging materials.
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SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Growing Importance of Process Materials
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SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Semiconductor Material Demand
• Process complexity is driving higher growth in materials demand than the wafer start growth– The BOM component of
semiconductor sales will increase over the next 5 years
• Photoresist and Ancillaries will show segment growth of 15%, higher than other major segments, and higher than the wafer start growth.
• Vapor deposition will continue to displace physical deposition, driving growth of ALD and CVD materials.
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SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Industry Structure, 2014
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
>1 1 0.8 0.5 0.35 0.25 0.18 0.13 0.045 0.032
0.09
0.065
DRAM
NAND
NOR
Adv Logic
Logic
Analog
Discrete
Notes: 1. Bottom axis is on a percentage basis2. Size of box is proportional to # wafer starts3. Source: Semico and Linx estimates
The new “Silicon Valley”
Business model changes required / desirable?
Materials innovations required
WSPY, KB
road
band
i-lin
e
248
nm
193
/ 19
3i
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SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Litho Roadmap - NAND
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SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
300mm Production
US Europe S’Pore China Taiwan
Korea Japan
Memory Foundry Logic
Where are the Materials Suppliers?
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21
SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Little Consolidation in Chemicals
However, the equipment producers have begun a recent round of consolidation with:
• Applied Materials acquiring Semitool and Varian
• Tokyo Electron acquiring Nexx Systems and Oerlikon
• Lam Research acquiring Novellus
Many indications are that this may be to align each companies’ portfolio for through silicon via (TSV)
Herfindahl Index example in CMP slurries. There has been little consolidation in the supply of electronic chemicals.
Consolidation is happening at the end user level in semi and LCD• Micron will likely
acquire Elpida• Formation of Japan
Display – Sony, Toshiba, Hitachi in FPD
Electronic Chemicals Fab Equipment Device Producers
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SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
The Quality Journey
• Quality Improvement– Increasing number of metals and elements in CofA
• 8 to 24– Increased Sensitivity
• ppm -> ppb -> ppt• Inorganic chemicals regularly specified at ppt levels
– Function specifications becoming more specific• Resolution, DOF EL, line collapse, profile, adhesion, footing, toploss, LER, LWR• Selective etch rates• Polish rates, defectivity, dishing
• Service Improvement– Beyond SPC– Ship to stock qualification
• Sub-Supplier Monitoring– Materials component supply analysis– Materials fingerprinting
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SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Advanced Materials Learning/Characterization
• Well controlled manufacturing at the supplier leads to product qualification
• Changed process at the sub-supplier changes end product performance
• Process audit located the change, and was rectified at cost of time and product
Sourcing
Reaction
Purification
Packaging
Shipping
Receiving
Reaction
Formulation
Purification
Application TestQC
Distillation
Shipping
QC
SupplierSubSupplier
SubSupplier
Purification • Sub-supplier process mapping during product development
• Beyond CofA material fingerprinting
• Understand and Control variation
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24
SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
FUTURE TRENDS TO WATCH
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25
SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Directed Self Assembly• DSA represents a possible resolution
extension for ArFi:– Segregating Block Co-polymers
form reduced pitch alternating polymer films with selective etch properties.
– Pattern transfer follows traditional routes.
• DSA is being pursued by multiple companies.
• DSA can be implemented with optical, e-beam, imprint or EUV exposure.
• Defect levels remain high, but have been reduced to levels that indicate production capability.
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26
SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
TSV Scenarios – More Than Moore
Category 2010 - 2015 2016 - 2020 2021 - 2025
DRAM
LOGIC
NAND
Source: HMCC
Mem
ory
Cub
e Stacked DRAM
Hyb
rid C
ube Consolidate
address logic on one device
Sys
tem
Cub
e Package system components vertically
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27
SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
Conclusions
• Growth returns in 2013.• A high upside potential remains in specialty materials for Semiconductors
– This is offset by significant R&D requirements– HKMG, FinFETs, FDSOI, 3D-NAND and STT-MRAM development programs
are already well advanced, although challenges remain at 22nm and below.– Now is the time to place bets for the next generation architectures.
• More Moore has significant implications for both equipment and materials suppliers– 450mm is driven by fab economics, not materials markets. Prepare for
deployment over the next 5 years.– 450mm will probably slow materials market growth.
• EUV is needed ASAP to mitigate process complexity and keep wafer cost low. Challenges of source power, and resist performance continue to slow implementation.
• Materials demand grows faster than Semiconductor Unit growth due to process complexity.– Patterning, CVD and ALD, and CMP all drive materials demand growth.
• 3D Packaging and TSV processing is a key area for focus over the next 5 years.